US Politics, April 2024: "Are You Better Off Today Than You Were <Checks Notes> Four Years Ago?"

Pretty sure here in the US you cannot deduct the interest payments on the mortgage for an investment property, unlike what seems to be the deal in Australia.

Yeah. The Aus difference is that if the property makes a loss, the loss comes off the individual’s taxable income - so you can borrow a massive proportion of the property cost more easily, so the market gets inflated.

You can deduct rental losses here too but not directly from other income. You have to carry it over and deduct it against future profits from the same property IIUC.

If you have enough money to own investment property, you're guaranteed to be running some kind of tax avoidance scam, or having your accountant run one on your behalf, so it all washes out.

Lol, or you just live in the Midwest.

Xp: Trump limited the SALT (state and local tax) deduction and mortgage interest deduction, which was a big impact in many higher tax blue states where even a middle income person can easily go over the new limit, especially if they own a home and pay property tax. The SALT limit is only $10,000 and property taxes alone can be higher than that even on a very modest house, not to mention any state or local income tax you might pay. Trump also lowered the mortgage interest deduction cap from $1m in debt to $750k in debt, which is still relatively high even in blue states. Families buying homes that are $800k plus in price are still usually pretty well off, even if not automatically the 1%. The SALT deduction is the bigger problem.

This interview with the author of the new book Coming Out Republican: A History of the Gay Right may be of interest to some.

Thanks. A helluva read.

Totally unrelated, for those wondering where some politic poll numbers come from these days, check out this insanity (which imo affirms their uselessness):

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:iwjcgn5pt2krm2lmav2mdcyz/bafkreihsnod7tgv2sdpf5egtvbomyqd5jh7nbhadqdiqf2cvcv6h2zbd4u@jpeg

Yeah, I've pointed out the absurdity of that poll on Twitter. If you're getting a 1% response rate, just give up already.

About 28% of all U.S. homes with three or more bedrooms are owned by people between the ages of 60 and 78 living by themselves or with another adult, according to a Redfin analysis of 2022 census data. Millennials living with children own just 14% of these bigger homes. A recent Fannie Mae survey found that most Americans 60 and older don’t intend to ever move.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/baby-boomers-big-homes-real-estate-inventory-3a047cb6

timely!

Boomers own half of all of the $32 trillion in home equity in the U.S., according to a Redfin analysis of Federal Reserve data.

I'd forgotten about Trump chipping away at the mortgage interest deduction. No wonder I've owed money the last couple years. Thanks, Trump!

Not a Boomer here but I guess I'm a part of the problem, as someone in the "owns, but can't afford to move" trap. Can't even afford much fixing, so I'm sitting here watching 86-year-old plumbing leak onto ancient carpets. Once the kids are out we can reassess.

I mean it’s kind of inevitable that people who have owned their homes longer are going to have most of the equity, especially with the way equity works in the typical fixed mortgage (you build very little in the first several years and it accelerates as you own longer)

Yeah, I've pointed out the absurdity of that poll on Twitter. If you're getting a 1% response rate, just give up already.

That's pretty much standard these days, isn't it? When NYT/Siena did those "real-time" polls in 2018, the response rate was even lower than that: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

The mortgage interest deduction also of course disproportionately benefits people with more valuable property, because their interest payments are higher. The first year after we bought our house (cheap, at low 2014 interest rates), I ran the math and it was hilarious how far it was from being worth closing. Never bothered since, we just take the standard deduction.

"The mortgage interest deduction also of course disproportionately benefits people with more valuable property, because their interest payments are higher."

I don't understand this post. It is not really true anymore.

the Trump "tax reform", while giving big tax breaks to corporations and the super rich, did away with mortgage interest and state and local income tax deductions beyond a limit of $10,000. As man alive said, that has had a big impact for even middle class folks in blue states

You’re confusing the mortgage interest deduction (allowed on interest on a principal up to 750,000, untouched by trump) and the SALT deduction on local sales and property taxes (capped at 10k by trump).

The mortgage interest deduction became less common to take under trump because he increased the standard deduction, which made itemizing less common. But the deduction is the same. All completely separate from the SALT cap changes.

Also many of us live modestly in very expensive places cause that’s where our jobs/family are. I may get the mortgage interest deduction yes, but I also live in a condo and will never be able to afford a detached home with a yard in this area.

xp, oh I see

In Ghostbusters, Dan Ackroyd gets a mortgage at 19% interest

The SALT changes disproportionately hit people in states with high income taxes, mostly blue states, it was a total partisan fuck-you. (People in my income-taxless state not affected.)

One part of the Trump tax bill I never saw fully explored: In addition to removing the SALT deduction and lowering the mortgage deduction cap, I think it raised the standard deduction.

Which should have reduced incentives for people to donate to charities and (yes) religious organizations.

But did that happen?

(Although thr mortgage thing was a partisan fuck you that hit me hard, on balance it wasn't bad policy)

xp that happened to us - bought our house in 2015 so we had a year or two of enjoying the SALT benefits before all that blue state middle fingering happened. It was hilarious to me because our republican congressman even took heat for voting for it.

The increase in the standard deduction did lessen the blow for some people. It’s now almost $28000 for married filing jointly. That said, it’s really easy for a family in the northeast or California to go over that in state and local taxes alone. Eg two experienced teachers making about $100k each could be paying around $12,000 in total state income tax and could easily have 18000 in property taxes on a small house. They can only deduct 10k out of that 30. Maybe they have 15k in mortgage interest and made 3000 in charitable contributions. That’s about equal to the standard deduction, they can deduct 28k. Under the old system they could deduct 48k. So you have to assume they’re losing thousands of dollars a year that they would have gotten in their rebates.

Fwiw lowering the salt cap also hurt a lot of rich homeowners in Texas because even though they pay not state income tax they pay surprisingly high property taxes.

Shame.

96% of a SALT cap repeal goes to the top 20%

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-dems-can-get-out-of-the-salt-mess-and-save-1-trillion-dollars/

... 18000 in property taxes on a small house ...

This would not be small house in LA/SF/SD, unless it's in a really desirable area. That's a $1.5M house, at least.

In my area that would be common for a $750k house, and if it was bought ten years ago it was probably bought for a lot less than that.

Top 20% is really not rich for a family, especially if you’re talking about nationally but the people live in a high COL state.

Fwiw lowering the salt cap also hurt a lot of rich homeowners in Texas because even though they pay not state income tax they pay surprisingly high property taxes.

It'll probably never actually happen, but Dan Patrick and other prominent Texas Republicans have floated the idea of abolishing (or at least greatly reducing) the property because of (quiet part) shit like that.

<PROPERTY TAX>

“only the little people pay taxes” — some .01% tax cheat

Top 20% is really not rich for a family

You’re adding ‘rich’ but it’s literally the upper quintile of incomes. The very least you can call that is “upper middle class” and beyond that 96% like 80% would go to the top 5%.

It was one of the most insane issue for liberals like Pelosi to obsess over. The only way to go further is to tie it to subsidies for Sub Zero refrigerators or something.

The salt cap decrease had a much smaller impact on CA than on like NJ or CT. One upside of its suicidal approach to property tax.

Jury selection begins today in Trump hush money trial, meanwhile in Trump documents case being presided over by Trump appointed federal judge Aileen Cannon-

Special counsel Smith urges Judge Cannon to reject Trump's latest bid for delay in classified docs case. "Each time the Court sets a new deadline in this case...the defendants reflexively ask for an adjournment. That must stop."

Good morning!

Here we go: Judge Merchan has entered the courtroom.

“Good morning, Mr Trump,” Merchan said after the lawyers introduced themselves.

— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) April 15, 2024

By all accounts jury selection could take days to weeks. Does Don-Don have to be there the whole time?

As a criminal defendant, Trump is required to attend proceedings each day of the trial unless he applies for a waiver.

But does that include jury selection?

It's part of the trial. Why would it be excluded?

The American people must decide…

again

kind of funny dynamic going on with things like this, the way rightwing media covers the Jan 6th stuff has apparently convinced the hardcore Trumpers that all these things are now traps laid by the FBI

A totally pathetic turnout of pro-Trump demonstrators outside the NYC courtroom. pic.twitter.com/aQrrdlR8cB

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) April 15, 2024

lmao @ Google It

Apparently Trump stock (literal, not figurative) is already down another 16% today. Buy on the dip!

As someone who was almost seated on a murder trial last week (no joke, check the jury duty thread on here), I can very much confirm that a defendant does have to be there for jury selection.

yeah but he was the preznit!

lol so he has to sit there and stew. I love it.