US Politics, April 2024: "Are You Better Off Today Than You Were <Checks Notes> Four Years Ago?"

It takes a village

it takes a pillage

Meanwhile, Jan. 6 penalties continue apace. This is one of my recent faves, a guy who must pay $32,000 to a German media company for destroying their equipment. Included in the evidence that led to the decision:

Haynes documented his activities in text messages he sent to associates. Alongside a photo
of himself standing in front of the debris, he wrote that “(w)e attacked the CNN reporters and the
fake news and destroyed tens of thousands of dollars of their video and television equipment here’s
a picture of me behind the pile we made out of it.”

lol

"Hey, come and take a picture of my crime, while I boast about it and provide further corroborrating detail."

The Supreme Court's third AND FINAL opinion of the day in Bissonnette v. LePage Bakeries. Per Roberts, a transportation worker need not work in the formal transportation industry to be exempt from the Federal Arbitration Act. It's unanimous! https://t.co/9XvyrzcuNi pic.twitter.com/RrDwfnsBOZ

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) April 12, 2024

Is that good, I genuinely do not know. I guess MJS is not expressing dismay at it.

He's got a follow up text calling it a victory for workers whose jobs involve transportation of goods

Amendment to Section 702 of FISA that would require the FBI to secure warrants before searching lawfully collected NSA foreign intelligence data for references to Americans, fell one vote short from passing.

FISA as a whole got extended for 2 years.

https://i.imgur.com/qekkh2S.png

lololol never change NYT

That's WaPo!

oh no, it's contagious

tasty hot dogs arrive at just the wrong time for hot dog vendor

I'd usually support clowning on these headlines, but I do think the economy is heading in a direction that will be a problem for Biden. Inflation is remaining stubbornly high, interest rates are too high, stocks recently peaked but are showing signs of shakiness. It might all improve but it might not.

rents have gone completely nuts for people. if they can even find a place to live that is decent since everyone wants to turn their rental into an air B&B. so high everywhere. and that's huge. as far as how people feel about the economy.

agreed

Yep, and mortgages are also impossible because rates are too high, you're basically gambling on the opportunity to refinance at some unknown point in the future.

I guess I don't understand that part, when we bought our house in 2001 it was 9%! now it's what, 5?

Also gas prices. My colleagues at work have been complaining about them lately so there’s a data point for you.

People paid double digit mortgage interest rates in the

Oh fudge..

I meant to conclude with: in the early 1980s. I’d be curious for a comparison between housing costs then and now, adjusted for inflation.

Avg rate for 30 year is around 7%, which is the highest it's been in over 20 years.

Sounds right, our first house (bought in 2003) I think had a 6% 15-year ARM. Mortgage rates have been practically nonexistent for a while now, or at least sub 3%. I think a lot of people got used to cheap money.

My parents bought my childhood home in 1980 with like a 16% mortgage rate, or something like that. Crazy.

yeah I think the problem is more about lagging wages than higher rates

mortgage rate is 7% right now for a 30 year mortgage.

oh didn't see moodles post

i think we pay...4% for our house? something like that. we bought it 12 years ago. 13 years ago. something like that.

same, except it was a refi, probably the same time period

The base problem isn't mortgage rates, but housing costs overall. Houses are too expensive, largely because near-zero interest rates have fueled the hoarding of houses as investments by the wealthy. The entire housing market has been badly warped by the refusal of Congress to supply sufficient spending stimulus after the financial crisis in 2008-09, leading the Fed to compensate via a give-away monetary policy of 'quantitative easing' combined with a zero interest rate.

The reason mortgage rates are a bigger political problem for Biden than the high cost of the house itself is mainly psychological. If you buy a house for $500,000 (that sold for $250,000 just a few years ago), the sales price feels like it equates to its intrinsic value, so you think you're getting $500,000 worth of house for your money. Paying a higher mortgage rate feel like money thrown into a bonfire.

there are very few rentals at any given time where i am and when there is they are 1500/2000 a month for 1br/2br and the pleasure of living in someone's converted attic or hundred year old duplex apartment. its too much. people don't make enough here. i would be so stressed if i had to find an apartment now where i live.

yeah same here, we are one of the worst rental markets in the country for our size

A realtor friend of ours broke some of it down like this:

-house prices got super high because those low interest rates allowed people to get more house for their money
-house prices remain super high in a lot of places because inventory is pretty low, which increases demand, despite the higher rates
-demand is being further inflated by millennials now settling down, starting families and buying homes, while at the same time boomers and retirees (because of those high prices) are sitting on their homes rather than downsizing (and freeing up inventory) because the value keeps going up (and yet, for the same reason, often not investing in upgrades, because the value of their properties is not linked to their condition)
-those relatively new to the job and housing market (Gen Z) face low inventory and high rates, making home ownership pretty unobtainable

I think those are some of the points she made.

I'd say that's an accurate description of our badly warped housing market.

hello from Miami!

-demand is being further inflated by millennials now settling down, starting families and buying homes, while at the same time boomers and retirees (because of those high prices) are sitting on their homes rather than downsizing (and freeing up inventory) because the value keeps going up (and yet, for the same reason, often not investing in upgrades, because the value of their properties is not linked to their condition)

Also because if you can't retire and move to Florida, there's no downgrading path to free up those houses. If you've still got to work there's nothing to buy in the same area if you sell your unnecessarily large raising a family house even if you want to get out from under the upkeep/property taxes.

Monthly rent in my area, even for older slightly tired apartment complexes, for the same type of dwelling unit with the same amenities, is frequently more than the mortgage my wife and I are paying for our condominium.

xxp my in-laws are doing exactly that. They have their second house just sitting on the market and are in no rush to sell until they get the amount they think it’s worth. It is completely impractical for them at their current health but they’re dead set at the moment.

Monthly rent in my area, even for older slightly tired apartment complexes, for the same type of dwelling unit with the same amenities, is frequently more than the mortgage my wife and I are paying for our condominium.

The average rent in Miami is about 150% higher than my mortgage

yeah, speaking of Florida, older people here in the east are not selling their house and getting that sweet condo in Boca. they can't afford to! so they sit in their big pile that is starting to fall apart and they don't fix it up because...they old? why bother? in the not that long ago past those people either moved down south, moved to a smaller place or condo, or died. now they live forever? which is nice. but there is nothing for people younger to buy. i mean, they own these houses. they can live in them forever. but there used to be some natural turnover in housing.

is that harsh? nothing against the olds. its not their fault. i'm sure they would rather be hanging at the beach playing pinochle.

i can't believe the prices here now. double. more than double. houses were so cheap. its nuts. its not exactly the lap of luxury here. it is for a certain kind of person though. someone who likes mud. and kombucha.

Houses are too expensive, largely because near-zero interest rates have fueled the hoarding of houses as investments by the wealthy.

This is a huge problem in Atlanta. These investment funds are pricing lower-income buyers out of the market. And, of course, rents are going up.

I looked up my house on Zillow and they have it estimated at nearly double what we bought it for. And even back then it was way too expensive for a house of its size.

My friend lost the midcentury bungalow she'd been renting for 15 years because a guy who was into commercial real estate came along and made cash offers to every house on her street - 2/3 sold out to him including her landlord. He slapped some paint on the houses, spruced up the yards and doubled rent.

is that harsh? nothing against the olds. its not their fault. i'm sure they would rather be hanging at the beach playing pinochle.

― scott seward, Saturday, April 13, 2024 4:44 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

boomers pretty much ransacked the country so you're not off the mark.

Here in Australia a series of boomer governments have devised and then protected a thing called "negative gearing" where if someone buys an investment property, all of the interest payments can be deducted from their taxable income. It is now a normal middle class thing for that generation to own 2 or 3 properties since it's so cheap to do that. I can't imagine why the Aus housing market is overinflated and undersupplied, and people under 40 have no chance of owning.
Also - after that generation aged past 55 which used to be the earliest age where you can access your retirement fund, they then jacked it up to 65 so that my generation stays in the workforce to pay boomer pensions and healthcare costs.

I think mortgage interest is tax deductible in the US too. Can't say for sure; I would never want to own a house.

it is!