moving the overton window on LGBT acceptance in Poland surely more important at this juncture than this guy's individual morality/sincerity?
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 12 February 2024 14:41 (three months ago) link
I mean, this is how it starts. Moving video, thanks xyzzzz__
― a hyperlink to the past (flamboyant goon tie included), Monday, 12 February 2024 15:01 (three months ago) link
Man, I spent half a year living in Poland as a 20-year-old, and I swore I would never return because of the homophobia and machismo of the culture. Hearing those words— and not needing the translation, even!— was really important to me. I sent it to my mom.
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Monday, 12 February 2024 23:11 (three months ago) link
Can only echo the above, this is great to see, thanks also xyzzzz__
― anvil, Monday, 12 February 2024 23:32 (three months ago) link
Chega, Portugal's far right party, have elected close to 50 MPs. The center right AD just squeezed by the center left PS and will now need a deal with one of the parties to govern - PS has already said they're not available, AD says they won't go into coalition with Chega but that doesn't mean they won't cut some sort of deal.
Actual left decimated, count them all together and they're accounting for 10% of the electorate at this stage.
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 11 March 2024 11:51 (two months ago) link
Depressing.
― man in suit and red tie raising his fist (Tom D.), Monday, 11 March 2024 12:13 (two months ago) link
How much of a surprise are these results?
Also, I was looking at the 2022 results, and it looks like Chega's level of support with 25-34 year olds wasn't just larger than their level of support with 55+ voters, it was double - which isn't something I would have assumed at all
― anvil, Monday, 11 March 2024 12:41 (two months ago) link
Chega was predicted to hold on to its position of 3rd strongest party and to gain seats but not to this extent.
One historical particularity is in Portugal the 55+ demographic is likely to have first hand experience of having lived through a fascist dictatorship, even if only as small children.
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 11 March 2024 12:49 (two months ago) link
The 55+ demographic in the post-soviet space varies quite a lot country to country in its relationships with previous soviet rule, which makes it not always that predictable what to expect with stuff like that
I also noticed last time around Chega did poorly in the northwest including what looks to be rural seats. And Faro was where they did best. (though thats presumably the whole Algarve not just the town), so it looks to be more than just a rural-urban divide? (though this is based off the much less pronounced 2022 results)
― anvil, Monday, 11 March 2024 13:08 (two months ago) link
Well I won't say there aren't some fash nostalgists out there, but overall ppl who lived through a fascist dictatorship during which most of the country didn't receive primary education and lived in abject poverty, not to mention a draft for an unjust and bloody colonial war, aren't keen to see that return. Kind of strange to reach for the post-soviet spaces imo, if you want a point of comparison Spain is right next to us :)
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 11 March 2024 16:35 (two months ago) link
Spain would definitely seem a more obvious comparison, but I have almost no conception of Spain at all. It wasn't to draw a direct comparison per se, but more to note that nostalgia prevalence levels for previous autocratic regimes across Europe are pretty varied - using the post-soviet spaces as an example as something that on the surface might seem uniform but vary considerably
Anyway, presuming 24 follows a similar pattern to 22, do you know why Chega appears to do worst in the North West relative to the rest of the country
― anvil, Monday, 11 March 2024 16:49 (two months ago) link
I don't have a definitive answer to that but traditionally the North West is quite conservative, I would think local Chega candidates would have a tougher time establishing themselves against well connected centre right campaigns. I had a look and AD won handily there this time 'round, the only district where Chega got a majority was again Faro (which yes means the region not just the city).
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 11 March 2024 19:25 (two months ago) link
Are expat “leave” Brits able to vote?
― from a prominent family of bassoon players (Boring, Maryland), Monday, 11 March 2024 20:50 (two months ago) link
The Faro stuff is interesting, because as far as I can tell tell its the district with the most pronounced population increase, and the only district outside of Lisbon and a couple of surrounding districts to be increasing at all, with population decline elsewhere (may be looking at outdated figures)
― anvil, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 05:35 (two months ago) link
although to Boring's point above an increase in the population doesnt necessarily mean an increase in population eligible to vote
― anvil, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 05:37 (two months ago) link
Also was listening to this on my run this morning, which is more broadly about the decline of the center-left across Europe post 2004, creating the space for populist parties to move into. Touches briefly on Portugal and Spain. Probably familiar material to many but was useful for me
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39V5_ui0XAA
― anvil, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 05:44 (two months ago) link
thought this article on Melenchon and the other French lefty parties was interesting:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/magazine/french-left-politics-melenchon.html
hope they can somehow beat Le Pen
― symsymsym, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 05:58 (two months ago) link
One thing I think I might mention is Portugal is on the whole a rather homogenous country with not that much variation in demographics, no real separatist groups, centuries old coherence in language, religion, culture - I'm from the Azores which are probably the most distant within that context and it's still nowhere near comparable to the differences I've seen within the UK, Germany, US. So granular district by district analysis might yield limited results in a forest for the trees sense.
― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 10:09 (two months ago) link
thought this article on Melenchon and the other French lefty parties was interesting:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/magazine/french-left-politics-melenchon.htmlhope they can somehow beat Le Pen
― symsymsym, Wednesday, March 13, 2024 6:58 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
Le Pen is far ahead in polls, the left coalition is a disaster and full of dissensions, France needs a figure to preserve Macron's legacy (Attal ?) but the French hate themselves too much to know what's good for them. Mélenchon will do a good score again, but under Le Pen. Yet I think the far right will be pushed back yet again, unless Marine gives Jordan Bardella his chance, which I don't think she will.
― Nabozo, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 10:43 (two months ago) link
Yes def need to preserve the glorious legacy of Macron
― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 10:47 (two months ago) link
Has there been a significant increase in 'the same damn candidates for the third election in a row' situations worldwide or does it just seem like it?
― nashwan, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 10:59 (two months ago) link
Yes def need to preserve the glorious legacy of Macron― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, March 13, 2024 11:47 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
Maybe I'm jaded, but I don't really expect more from politicians, and certainly nothing glorious. I see him as a center-right blueprint, and the alternatives as worse. I'm not French nor a close follower though.
― Nabozo, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 12:40 (two months ago) link
He's been steadily dogwhistling to racists, trying to stop the rise of the FN by co-optinh its rhetoric into a more socially palpable framing. He's also presided over increasingly scarier initiatives to clamp down on the right to protest and give the cops more and more leeway for using violence. Even my wife's dad, who is centre left and hates Melenchon, is disgusted with him.
Less important but the fact that there's no obvious good replacement in line for Macron is, for the man himself, a feature not a bug - he hollowed out the PS to benefit a political movement based entirely around his own cult of personality.
― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, 13 March 2024 13:08 (two months ago) link
I certainly dislike his minister of interior (Darmamin) and surely there are things to criticize, but I still think he's the most competent and likable of the French presidents I've known (counting from Chirac). The immigration bill appeared tactical and potentially a good electoral move: giving an image of toughness, letting the far-right introduce amendments, most of which will be eviscerated by the constitutional court. Anyway, I don't believe Macron is going on a right-wing drift, he's always balanced (maybe more clumsily than adroitly) between the two sides. The cult of personality thing is also a feature arguably.
― Nabozo, Thursday, 14 March 2024 08:11 (two months ago) link
centrists never gonna stop believing that reactionary immigration policy is 12D chess instead of what their guys actually believe in
― papal hotwife (milo z), Thursday, 14 March 2024 08:17 (two months ago) link
what they actually believe in - nice liberals can't be racist so their support for racist policy always has to be framed as some kind of tactical move - it helps them to have a further-right villain to use as a threat against those who take issue with this bullshit
finding macron likeable is only slightly more fathomable to me than finding trump likeable and that's just on an aesthetic level
― Left, Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:02 (two months ago) link
Security and foreign policy have always been the go-to for easy gains in electoral points, you won't convince me it's ideological.
― Nabozo, Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:07 (two months ago) link
But what's unfathomable to me is not seeing a difference between Trump and Macron
― Nabozo, Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:11 (two months ago) link
I guess Macron’s likeable if you don’t care about Muslims or black people or the poor.
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:11 (two months ago) link
You won't convince me that pandering to racists and the far right really is a positive electorally.
― man in suit and red tie raising his fist (Tom D.), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:12 (two months ago) link
It was fun how he tried to move the press room at the Elysee so journalists couldn’t see who came and went, surely not something that would ever backfire with fascists in power
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:14 (two months ago) link
That's not what was said though.
― man in suit and red tie raising his fist (Tom D.), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:14 (two months ago) link
I'm not French nor a close follower though.
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:15 (two months ago) link
The recently released video clips from 2022 of Macron talking to both Zelenskyy and Putin on the phone have such a weird uncanny valley feeling about them (Putins 'sorry bro I'm at the gym about to play hockey' line?). I feel like I'm being duped by a skit
― anvil, Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:20 (two months ago) link
― man in suit and red tie raising his fist (Tom D.), Thursday, March 14, 2024 10:12 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
Not "pandering", but hard disagree. If there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 years, it's that you cannot let them occupy the security and immigration terrain alone, because that's exactly where you can (and need) to contain their growth. We can discuss how to best manage it and nobody is saying the French immigration bill was the only option.
― Nabozo, Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:21 (two months ago) link
If there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 yearsIf there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 yearsIf there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 yearsIf there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 years
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:25 (two months ago) link
Here’s an idea: all the fascists’ ideas are bad, and you do not, in fact, need to hand it to them.
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:26 (two months ago) link
The far right have nothing to say on the subject of security that isn’t “persecute Muslims” and “restrict civil liberties”. Most of them take Russian money and hang out with people who are huge security risks.
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:27 (two months ago) link
The thing about is it strategic vs is it ideological is that it doesn't matter - playing with anti immigration sentiment still moves the overton window and the idea that you could then somehow keep things to acceptable levels (whatever those would be) is delusional.
― Daniel_Rf, Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:28 (two months ago) link
The only acceptable level to the fascists is none and repatriation of people who’ve been there generations. Let’s just be honest about that.
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:29 (two months ago) link
Yes. Also pandering, and that is exactly the right word, hasn't worked and will never work.
― man in suit and red tie raising his fist (Tom D.), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:31 (two months ago) link
hey if there's one thing the history of fascists in power has taught us it's that they definitely moderate their demands if you accommodate them a little
― Morris O’Shea Salazar (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:33 (two months ago) link
With the proviso of course that if you actually believe in these policies, it isn't pandering.
― man in suit and red tie raising his fist (Tom D.), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:33 (two months ago) link
the "Is" in this thread title needs moving two places to the right, funnily enough
― Morris O’Shea Salazar (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:38 (two months ago) link
that's not very funny
― Left, Thursday, 14 March 2024 09:47 (two months ago) link
Security and foreign policy have always been the go-to for easy gains in electoral points
Citation needed, this strategy appears to be a failure when it's tried. Even the glorious centrist revolutions in the west of the past decades (Blair, Clinton, 2017 Macron) were riding on an economic message first and foremost.
If you're a reactionary/racist voter and have the choice of a gleefully reactionary/racist candidate and a candidate that's open to a little bit of reaction/racism for a treat - what, exactly, is supposed to be the draw of the latter?
you won't convince me it's ideological.
Being open to a little strategic racism is itself ideological.
― papal hotwife (milo z), Thursday, 14 March 2024 17:35 (two months ago) link
otm
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 14 March 2024 17:37 (two months ago) link
I don’t think Nah, bozo will be responding, somehow.
― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 14 March 2024 17:38 (two months ago) link
Seriously doesn’t matter whether those enacting racist policy do so out of conviction or cynicism, but also the whole “I know they don’t believe it in their secret heart of hearts” bit is — at best — naive credulity masquerading as realpolitik. At worst, well.
― cozen itt (wins), Thursday, 14 March 2024 18:53 (two months ago) link
Reading this thread with Gustavo Petro's quote from last year on the back of my mind: "Many in Europe have already welcomed Hitler into their homes", something like that
― xyzzzz__, Saturday, 16 March 2024 07:35 (two months ago) link