ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

that footage of the pickup is crazy

CNN--Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence claims it has confirmed the use of Starlink satellite communications by Russian forces in occupied areas.

It says it has intercepted conversations which indicate the Starlink terminals are being used to provide internet access to Russia’s 83rd Air Assault Brigade operating in the Donetsk region.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, which owns Starlink, says it does not do business of any kind with the Russian government or its military.

“If SpaceX obtains knowledge that a Starlink terminal is being used by a sanctioned or unauthorized party, we investigate the claim and take actions to deactivate the terminal if confirmed,” the company said in a statement.
Starlink, which uses a network of satellites to provide broadband, says its service will not work in Russia, although the statement didn’t address whether it would work in occupied Ukraine.

The service plays a crucial role in Ukrainian battlefield communications. Last year, Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate, said “absolutely all front lines are using them.”

Ukraine’s claim follows revelations about the satellite system’s use in the war made in a biography of Starlink’s owner Elon Musk, written by Walter Isaacson.

According to an excerpt from the book, Musk secretly ordered his engineers to turn off his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet.

As Ukrainian submarine drones strapped with explosives approached the Russian fleet, they “lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly,” Isaacson writes.

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson.

A more detailed quote in Reuters. coverage:

"Cases of the Russian occupiers' use of the given devices have been registered. It is beginning to take on a systemic nature," the Ukrainian defence ministry's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) quoted spokesman Andriy Yusov as saying.

Situation worsening in Avdiivka. Media attention is more focused on funding and support rather than situation on ground right now, but fairly intense at the moment and potentially quite consequential

Situation in Avdiivka getting the most media attention, but Kupyansk looking bad as well now, Ammunition shortage starting to bite. I don't know just how consequential this is, but I presume this starts to make Kharkiv more vulnerable?

Not sure where the last few posts went but anyway here's Perun's look at what's actually in the aid package and what impact it may have

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/11/victoria-nuland-state-department-diplomat-interview-00157408

Pretty innocuous interview, doesn't really say anything of note. She's kind of a strange in that certain articles or circles she's made into a kind of Soros type figure, where invocation of name alone is enough to convey all sorts of information

her demonization could be an after effect of Trump's first impeachment over his "perfect" phone call to Zelensky

I can't really tell whats happening with Russia's new Kharkiv offensive. It doesn't look they've anywhere near enough personnel to be able to take the city, which leaves either buffer zone or diversion to fix Ukrainian troops as possible reasons

But fixing troops here also involves diverting Russia's troops too

The only thing I can think is maybe getting a bit closer to the city might bring it within more reachable tube artillery range, making strikes both more effective and more cost-effective and potentially induce the population to leave, as apparently many have moved back home over the last 12-18 months, and the population isn't that far off what it was in 2021, back above a million again

Though It might be there isn't a specific plan and its more of a speculative approach

getting a bit closer to the city might bring it within more reachable tube artillery range, making strikes both more effective and more cost-effective

As speculations go, that's quite plausible. Also, the pipeline of US military aid that just started back up recently hasn't had much time to backfill the shortages caused by the long wrangle in Congress.

Its not all that clear what Russia prefers to do with the population of Kharkiv. Getting closer to it would increase its ability to shell it with lower cost munitions which would presumably pressure inhabitants to start leaving again for safer locations.

But with Mariupol Russia seemed reluctant to let the population leave, though eventually they replaced some of the inhabitants via population transfer (I'm unclear on how large this transfer was but given the reported numbers I presume the majority of these were from Mariupol, maybe Melitopol)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=829nvzjbPPA

Perun's take on the current situation in Kharkiv, listened to on my run this morning, not really any clear answers., though one interesting angle is the idea that bringing Kharkiv within tube artillery range would lead to increased headlines in the West about Russian advances, with possible idea of persuading voters in Europe and the US that a Russian victory is inevitable and therefore its best to stop supplying Ukraine.

Difficult to know if that would have any real effect or not, apparently one poll in Europe from Feb of this year had "A Russian victory is most likely outcome" at 20% (he does cite his sources but I was listening not watching so I don' have source to hand)

If the war comes down to a long stalemate and its attendant attrition then Russia, by dint of its sheer size advantage, has a clear but very costly and bloody path to victory.

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-rod-stewart-booed-by-german-crowd-while-making-show-of-support-for-ukraine-13154166

Okay but why?

AfD supporters? War fatigue? Apparently the Germans are dragging their heels over natural gas sanctions too.

The AfD does pretty well in Leipzig so that possible. War fatigue maybe but to some extent its dropped out of the news in recent months in some countries, not sure when on Germany though. There have also been some attacks on Ukrainians recently in Germany, including the murder of a 9 year old recently, coincidentally also just outside Leipzig

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/us-germany-foiled-russian-assassination-plot

This is pretty wild.

Trump's pick of Vance for the VP slot doesn't look good. Vance has been one of the most strident voices against US aid to Ukraine in the Republican party.

Ukrainian soldiers have crossed over the border into the Kursk region of Russia... this wasn't special forces but at least 300 regular soldiers

Pretty ballsy, Putin convened a meeting about it

This incursion into Russia is something else... I'm not sure what the strategy is, but it's a bloody nose, I'll take it

Cf. Lee's Maryland campaigns

Putin is nervously calling it terrorism rather than an invasion and allegedly only using FSB personnel and raw recruits to counter it to little effect. Ukraine have set up a Kursk commandant's office to police something like over a 1000 square miles of Russian territory, that's not really terrorism by any stretch. God I really hate getting into this because all war is shit, but it is an interesting development.

its a special military operation i suppose

Ukraine needs to have something to negotiate with if talks ever happen.

I don't imagine they expected it to be so easy and rapidly successful, maybe originally it was a tactic to draw away troops from defensive frontlines. But now they've Big Sam in!

That but also maybe to normalise actions on RU territory to loosen conditions on what and when Ukraine are allowed to do with western kit

Although Russia's actually this is not really a big deal response is interesting. Putin seems reticent to move troops to defend it, could potentially leave it as is for time being even. The response and evacuations are more like that of an occurrence of a flood or natural disaster

Russia seems like a macaroon, hard on the outside, soft on the inside.. once you're in, you have the run of the place

China should annex Siberia, perfect timing

I would say its probably relatively brittle in terms of structure, but at the same time although I think this weakens Putin to some degree and not an insignificant degree the fact defending Kursk isn't seen as a priority by Putin (or even by anyone else?) is telling.

This is not good.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/29/russia-north-korean-troops-ukraine-war

there's a history of Russia using N Koreans as slave labour so this feels like an extension of that

cannon fodder

I didn't realize it was that many troops

It's extremely bad. The speculation is that North Korea is receiving Russian tech and weapons in return. NK recently amended its constitution to declare SK a hostile state and blew up the roads and railways to show they are now against reunification.

allegedly, the Russian casualty rate from deploying suicidal "meat assaults" has been averaging around 1200 a day. In that grisly context they might last a week. I'd assume N Korea are sending prisoners, because even evil totalitarian dictators are going to be reluctant to sacrifice great numbers of their own military that cheaply.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/biden-missiles-ukraine-long-range-trump-b2648654.html

lads i think i might have a panic-induced heart attack can somebody sensible tell me WWIII isn't about to kick off?

blimey, fuck knows!

Since the advent of nuclear weapons, but especially the mass deployment of hydrogen warheads on ICBMs, the necessity of abandoning Clausewitz's concept of Total War and sublimating it into proxy wars and regional conflicts has become obvious to the war planners in the nuclear club. The idea of a WWIII fought globally, but strictly with conventional weapons is very implausible. Putin's saber rattling over tactical nukes in Ukraine is 98% certain to be a bluff. But if it were 100% certain it wouldn't work as a bluff, so... there you go.

It’s a licence for limited strikes in a specific border region where Russia is mobilising thousands of North Korean soldiers, from the reports I’ve seen. As far as I can tell, it’s not even meant to address the ongoing complaint that Ukraine can’t target the Russian missile launchers on Russian territory that are attacking Ukrainian cities.

Vlad won't start a world war because he knows he can get everything he wants from Trump

I don't think he'll start a world war but not necessarily for that reason. I don't think a world war is in China's interests right now, and Putin's options for escalation are pretty limited, and reaching for the nuclear button is fraught with personal danger. I feel like Putin is in a weird spot where neither de-escalation nor escalation are viable options, and permanent long term war is the safest option, both personally and for the restructured economy

We've also seen many of Putin's red lines crossed and him not do anything about it, including the first foreign invasion of Russian territory since WW2, with almost no reaction whatsoever, with Putin treating it more like a flood or earthquake than an invasion

As for getting whatever he wants from Trump, you would think so, I would think so too, but it's unclear whether Putin thinks that. Russian state media's response to Trumps victory was to broadcast old nude photos of Melania, he took 2 days to call Trump, deny the call ever happened, and make cryptic remarks about what Trump owes Putin. Which all seem like veiled but ultimately empty threats. The idea that he has some kind of kompromat or leverage now seems more fanciful or at least long past its sell by date

I don't know that it's guaranteed that Trump is going to roll over for Putin, even with some of his administration picks. Trump is in a much stronger position than he was in 2016 and in a stronger position than Putin is too. He'll also be aware of both of these things. The power dynamic has changed.

Also factor in Putin's mix of cautiousness and opportunism, he tends to escalate when he senses weakness or opportunity

this just makes me sick to my stomach

White House officials have told Ukraine to stop badmouthing Donald Trump and to sign a deal handing over half of the country’s mineral wealth to the US, saying a failure to do so would be unacceptable.

The US national security adviser, Mike Waltz, told Fox News that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, should “tone down” his criticism of the US and take a “hard look” at the deal. It proposes giving Washington $500bn worth of natural resources, including oil and gas.

so shameful

such nice minerals

be such a shame if anything happened to them

Pure protection racket.

A protection racket without any promise of protection.

Zelenskyy now in the position Tito worried about being in after WW2.

Its arguable most if not all of Europe is heading towards the same position

Is NATO actually dead now? not that i have any great love for the institution but seems.. messy

I think NATO is almost certainly dead. Personally I think its been over since 2012 at least, but the pretence has done too now