Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

i think political, election-related violence/revenge - worse than jan 6, and across the country - seems like such a likely possibility if trump loses

You are wrong to think this, and here's why:

- Trump is not as popular as he once was. Not by a long shot. And he was never popular. His approval rating never broke the 50% mark the entire time he was in office. Not once. Not for a day, not for an hour.

- Many of his most violent supporters are already under arrest. The others have seen their peers arrested and thrown in federal prison. Even the ones who have not been arrested and put in federal prison have seen how normal people view them. January 6 rioters are not American heroes. They are viewed as at best, deluded idiots, and at worst, violent terrorists. And they know it.

Trump is going to lose next year. And it's not going to be close. The "leftists" claiming they won't vote for Biden because they think he's the president of Israel...well, they probably won't vote. But they won't be in states where it will matter. And things like gas prices and grocery bills will feel better by next fall. And Trump will have said many more, ever increasingly insane things between now and next fall, because he's insane, and he can't help himself, especially not when he gets desperate and can feel that the tide has turned against him. He is not winning anyone over at this point. At best, he is keeping the most diehard members of his cult on the compound with him. But nobody is signing up to join the cult in 2023/2024. Nobody.

One of the things that struck me talking to Trump supporters after the 2020 election: they do not understand how much those of us who are not Trump supporters loathe him.

I thought they fed off of knowing how much everyone else hates them

One of many the things that made my head spin on election night was this nbc/cnn interview with a mellow middle age trump voter, asking her what her message is to all the people scared for their future under trump, her response was this super chipper dismissive “oh don’t worry! it’ll be fine!”, like someone told her she forgot to leave her porch light on.

(2020)

(2016, I mean, sorry, stopping posting now)

I'm not as confident as unperson that Trump will surely lose but I think the rest is pretty otm. rightwing violence is very much an issue and I am sure there's gonna be some dust ups if/when he loses but I really don't think we'll see something on the scale of J6 again (at least, not in service of Donald Trump). if there's one thing the right is really really good at it's astroturfing. they very much want you to believe they've got an entire militia on standby ready to fuck shit up if people mess with Trump. but yeah, I think this is very much the reality:

Many of his most violent supporters are already under arrest. The others have seen their peers arrested and thrown in federal prison. Even the ones who have not been arrested and put in federal prison have seen how normal people view them. January 6 rioters are not American heroes. They are viewed as at best, deluded idiots, and at worst, violent terrorists. And they know it.

it's hard to say anyone who participated in the J6 riot "won" in any sense. maybe the few people whose images got plastered all over TV, but nah, this thing has been an albatross for pretty much everyone involved. they accomplished nothing. many of them got arrested and thrown in jail. and I think it's not insignificant that Trump himself kinda left them all out to dry. I'm still very skeptical that Donald Trump commands some sort of sleeper cell army in this country - I think what he really controls is a mass of loud folks who very very badly want to be on TV.

Look at what happened to Tucker Carlson this year. He got fired from Fox, and instantly his audience diminished by about 90 percent, because "his" viewers weren't going to change the channel or go somewhere looking for him; they were just watching him because he was on Fox at 8 PM, or whatever. Same thing happened to Bill O'Reilly before him. When he was on Fox, when he was being spoon-fed to a vast herd of buffoons, he was very popular. The instant he was no longer on Fox, he was reduced to podcasting from his basement. This is just as observable with Trump, except losing Fox wasn't the blow — it was losing Twitter. Since losing his Twitter account in 2021, he's been on a downward slide. Not only does nobody outside the cult have any awareness of his Truth Social posts, even journalists don't bother covering them to the degree or in the manner that they covered his tweets. Trump has the stink of loser all over him.

unperson/frogbs (responding to you both as one, though frogbs i note you disagreed with unperson on trump surely losing (as do i))

i definitely hope you're both right!

something i wanted to ask, then: if trump is politically obsolete, already, then (going back to what i was attempting to address in my post) what are your views on taking him off the ballot in some states? does it make any difference? (i have more baloney to say but want to make sure i understand what you're saying first)

unperson and frogbs largely otm

something i wanted to ask, then: if trump is politically obsolete, already, then (going back to what i was attempting to address in my post) what are your views on taking him off the ballot in some states? does it make any difference?

It makes a difference in that some states are willing to enforce a heretofore obscure section of the Fourteenth Amendment and I welcome it; but John Roberts and some portion of the Sinister Six will vitiate those eliminations anyway, so the point's moot.

But nobody is signing up to join the cult in 2023/2024. Nobody.

I agree almost straight down the line with your post, but the true size of Trump's cult is the Republican Party, not just his adoring fans. All the Republicans who've stuck with the party since 2018 will be perfectly willing to vote for Trump again in 2024. That's his real base.

The structural advantages the GOP has in the solid South and the electoral college system that heavily favors rural/small state voters make him still formidable, if he can just budge a couple of 2020's swing states into his column. This election is no sure thing, even though Biden will crush Trump again in the popular vote.

Right, but as unperson said, who's joining the cult now? Not many.

At this point they're only talking about primary ballots, right? General election ballots could presumably be a different court fight (and as Alfred notes, he installed a pliant Judiciary).

That said, any state willing to bump him would likely be one he wouldn't win anyway.

RE: taking Trhump off ballots, imo it's worthwhile to try. When it goes up to Supreme Court they'll have to rule on what they think the 14th Amendment actually says/means. It's the same thing the GOP is consistently doing, from gun rights and abortion rights to baking a gay wedding cake. They litigate the shit out of everything, it's only fair that we do likewise.

xp what was the cult before trump? did it come out of nowhere?

what was the cult before trump? did it come out of nowhere?

It came out of the Tea Party, the Birther shitheads, and the vast swath of people who spend hours of every day mainlining FOX News and other right wing media, brainwashed by Limbaugh and Roger Ailes.

xp It was the Tea Party, I think.

xp lots of crossover in that Venn diagram.

In 2015 and 2016 he animated a group of non-voters and so-called independents -- many of whom had voted for Obama in 2008 -- to become Republicans.

That's the difference that made the difference imo.

It's significant, if largely irrelevant at this point, that Trump launched his political career riding the "birther" canard. That was a pure expression of white reaction to a black president.

something i wanted to ask, then: if trump is politically obsolete, already, then (going back to what i was attempting to address in my post) what are your views on taking him off the ballot in some states? does it make any difference? (i have more baloney to say but want to make sure i understand what you're saying first)

guess it depends on the state, it won't matter for CO but isn't Maine the state which does all four electoral votes individually? so it could matter there. ultimately I don't think it'll actually happen, obviously Trump will fight tooth and nail for it and the deck is largely stacked in his favor. but I do think the fact that there's gonna be a huge argument about whether or not he's Constitutionally eligible to run is not exactly where you wanna be once the campaign actually starts.

xps i thought there'd be more nixonland heads in this thread!

my view is that the current trump cult is the latest variation on a long line of conservative cults with roots in white evangelical alliances with the far right in the 50s and 60s (at least).

and my point in bringing that up is that the cult will continue on after trump is gone

Nixonland is a key text. Having just read Doppelganger, I'd say that and Nixonland together capture our moment all too well.

I am not sure we've ever seen a cult of personality in the U.S. quite like Trump's. I can't even compare Reagan's following. But I think the comparison to evangelicals is otm.

if trump is politically obsolete, already, then (going back to what i was attempting to address in my post) what are your views on taking him off the ballot in some states?

I think he should be removed from the ballot in all 50 states. He should be ineligible to run for president — or, indeed, for any public office. And you can't make that decision based on what his most insane cultists might think, say, or do about it. You have to make the decision based on whether it's the right decision. And legally (and morally, for whatever that's worth) it is. Will Republicans attempt to get every Democratic candidate thrown off future ballots for specious reasons? Of course. But again, you can't take that as your guide and therefore do nothing. You have to do the right thing anyway.

what makes the Trump cult so different is it has this aspect of reality TV to it, like I believe it's ushered in this new era of Republicans whose previous life goal was to be on something like The Bachelorette. through Trump they've found another way in. I keep thinking of MTG and how the people who knew her before she ran for Congress said she wasn't anything like this when they knew her, in fact they wouldn't have even guessed she was conservative. you see that all over Congressional Republicans now. lost in this weird battle for Speaker was the fact that the GOP-led house has passed essentially nothing since winning it back in 2022. Jim Jordan hasn't passed a bill, he hasn't even sponsored one. they're not even using trans panic and "the war on woke" or whatever to accomplish their goals, that in fact is their goal, to get on TV and loudly scream "WHATS HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY?"

(obviously there are a group of more sinister, goal-oriented Republicans who have glomped onto this movement to actually do evil shit, but I think the core of Trumpland is still something else)

guess it depends on the state, it won't matter for CO but isn't Maine the state which does all four electoral votes individually? so it could matter there. ultimately I don't think it'll actually happen, obviously Trump will fight tooth and nail for it and the deck is largely stacked in his favor. but I do think the fact that there's gonna be a huge argument about whether or not he's Constitutionally eligible to run is not exactly where you wanna be once the campaign actually starts.

i agree with the thought that the only states that would move to take him off the ballot are blue states, so it doesn't matter electorally. but i think the direct electoral effect is maybe the least important thing about the whole issue. more important (i think) is what that looks like to a typical gop voter. i think, to many people, and especially with the entire gop spin machine flooding the zone with shit, and the quality of civic education in the united states being _abysmal_ for several generations now, it comes across as "the democrats tried to cheat in the blue states".

people don't like losers, and it's true that trump has been losing a lot*, but i think they dislike cheaters even more than losers

I think he should be removed from the ballot in all 50 states. He should be ineligible to run for president — or, indeed, for any public office. And you can't make that decision based on what his most insane cultists might think, say, or do about it. You have to make the decision based on whether it's the right decision. And legally (and morally, for whatever that's worth) it is. Will Republicans attempt to get every Democratic candidate thrown off future ballots for specious reasons? Of course. But again, you can't take that as your guide and therefore do nothing. You have to do the right thing anyway.

unperson i think this is a totally legit view, maybe even what i ultimately believe ("you have to do the right thing anyway.")
i worry about the people who might bear the physical cost of doing the right thing, though

frogbs otm. I think the other aspect of this to keep in mind is that the entire project of the modern Republican Party is to continue to benefit the very wealthiest in the U.S. to the greatest extent possible. This culture war shit is just a smokescreen. However, I do think that the people who actually run the party do run the risk of being hoist by their own petard.

get on TV and loudly scream "WHATS HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY?"

And solicit donations thereon.

but also those people pretty plainly saw what happened on Jan 6th, they saw Trump defending those dudes, they see the fact that he has mountains of legal issues stemming from virtually every action he takes, there are literally recorded phone calls of him outright trying to cheat, and so on and so forth so idk if this is the sort of thing that's gonna motivate people to vote. "the democrats tried to cheat in the blue states" is gonna motivate people to vote for him just as much as "how dare you shame this man for locker room talk" did in 2016

that said it would definitely be a lot better for everyone if they got this sorted out before the primaries, having him win the nomination and THEN getting kicked off the ballot is not a great look

i think my issue with the "you have to do the right thing anyway" strategy is that sometimes life is like

https://i.imgur.com/uZh0bq1.jpg

Is Jake Gyllenhaal on that track or

the person on the top track is indeed jake gyllenhaal. but on the bottom track are stephen miller, alex jones, dennis miller, desantis, and trump

oh wait, i made that really easy lol. make dennis miller and jake gyllenhaal trade places, so jake's in the group with the other horrible guys and dennis miller is by himself. would you be willing to murder miller, jones, desantis, and trump, and sacrifice jake gyllenhaal, while letting dennis miller live?!

That left turn is so sharp the car might tip, so I'd pull the lever and hope.

That's indeed what I've in mind

This blog post sums up my feelings pretty well.

"If trump is taken off the ballot his supporters will respond with violence" is literally saying the law is whatever fascists want it to be because you're afraid of them.

The Supreme Court is a Christofascist Trump-loving hive of authoritarian quislings, and they’ll almost certainly find some way to say that insurrection is totally cool when their buddy does it. But—and this is a key point—you don’t need to help Clarence Thomas and Sam “I love to torture women to death” Alito stab democracy through the fucking heart.

You don’t need to crawl on hands and knees to Trump, scraping your face raw and bloody in the hopes that he won’t be mean to you. Instead, you can use the court rulings to remind voters that yes, Trump committed insurrection, and yes, our Constitution frowns on that. You can tell coup plotters, fascists, and the rest of Trump’s MAGA horde of sycophants, bullies, and cowards that we are going to stand together for democracy, and we’re going to use whatever means are at our disposal to win.

...

This is an easy win. Trump’s a massive fascist pustule; each court ruling tossing him off the ballot is a news cycle about how he’s a massive fascist pustule. So help spread the message that he’s a massive fascist pustule! The alternative is to turn yourself into a fucking worm, squishing and sliding through Trump’s foetid orange leavings, aerating them and helping fascism grow. Don’t be that fucking worm.

“Leavings” is going to be rotating thru my conversations for the next week thank u

Thanks for that, unperson. (And thanks, all of you, for today’s discussion.)

https://i.imgur.com/8yojXc1.jpg

Sorry Jake, but the numbers don't add up for you.

We'll still have Ryan Gosling.

The Tea Party is descended from Gingrich / Contract With America, which descends from talk radio, which descends from Reagan, who descended from Goldwater, and ultimately the Klan and the Confederacy, etc.

An anti-tax, small-government, anti-federal politics is inherently a racist politics.

Sure, there is a through line straight from the Confederacy to the present day GOP and Trump is its latest heir, but the particulars of the Trump cult added a new twist in that his most crazed and loyal acolytes were basically non-voters prior to Trump because of the prevalence of conspiratorial thinking among them, as typified by the birthers. It's no coincidence Trump served as their figurehead.

booming piece

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/opinion/trump-insurrections-disqualification-14th-amendment.html?unlocked_article_code=1.LU0.cfLX.xqQybZP3qsK-&smid=url-share

Yeah it’s the most convincing thing I’ve read on what he should be disqualified. Every day I curse Pelosi for not fast tracking impeachment after January 6.

Why he should be disqualified