God Has Abandoned Us: U.S. Politics November 2023

When candidates and campaigns tell you who they are, listen to them.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/13/trump-vermin-fascist-language-speech

― The Triumphant Return of Bernard & Stubbs (Raymond Cummings), Tuesday, November 14, 2023 2:31 PM bookmarkflaglink

This is alarmingly true.

Sorry if this was already posted, but Trump's plans to use the Insurrection Act to deploy the military after his enemies and other assorted changes to the Constitution are absolutely chilling:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/

He may seem like an utter clown and buffoon, but consider that even being out on supervised release for 91 criminal charges, and convicted of sexual assault and on trial for all manner things, he is still leading the polls in 5 swing states.

Lots of low-info voters, or people who - for whatever reason think that a second Trump term is fine.

Univision cancelling a bunch of pre-bought Biden ads after meeting with Trump seems... baffling? And possibly not good?

That’s a weird story (and maybe not the best thing to read when you first wake up)

As a side note - “‘You are a United States senator!’ he shouted” for December thread title

...or "Stand Your Butt Up"

amazing how this guy can just lose any and all sense of goodwill from anyone under 40 in less than a few months

Court Upholds Biden Admin’s Willow Oil Drilling Project

Remember when he promised to stop all new drilling on US lands? So do I!

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/15/paul-pelosi-jan-6-riot-00127267

Prosecutors grapple with alternate reality defense of the political fringe in Paul Pelosi trial.
The trial has become something of a test of what happens when certain far-out strains of digital-age American radicalism collide with the criminal justice system.

I'm really not sure why they aren't going for an insanity defense

"he wasn't going after Pelosi as an elected official, see, he also wanted to kill Tom Hanks for being a pedophile" isn't a very good defense

"he wasn't planning on kidnapping her he just brought along zip ties for some other reason in case things went bad"

"He may seem like an utter clown and buffoon, but consider that even being out on supervised release for 91 criminal charges, and convicted of sexual assault and on trial for all manner things, he is still leading the polls in 5 swing states."

America has gone insane

Judges and juries have largely rejected the claims of Jan. 6 rioters. But a handful of judges have found that some rioters could not face weightier charges because they had no clue what was happening in the Capitol and therefore couldn’t have intended to block certification of Biden’s victory over Donald Trump.

U S. District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson found that one defendant — who surged with the Jan. 6 mob onto the Senate floor — had such a “unique stew in his mind” that she couldn’t be sure he had any idea he was breaking the law.

A unique stew

wasn't it a single poll? xp

Whereas now he has a unique stew in his pants

https://media.giphy.com/media/YubmsAgCotPm8/giphy.gif

Definitely a good solid sign of a functional justice system when "too stupid to know they were committing a crime" starts to work.

America has gone insane

― | (Latham Green), Wednesday, November 15, 2023 9:02 AM bookmarkflaglink

Yup. Roe overruled, affirmative action made illegal.

Trump has a team working very hard on legal rationalizations for making the Justice Department an instrument of political suppression

https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-2025-second-term.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-kw.6Bfk.UvIlsYrmbr2r&smid=url-share

otoh

https://www.abc4.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2023/11/6554134bae24f9.12346718.jpeg?w=876&h=493&crop=1

WE ARE UNITED 💀

wasn't it a single poll? xp

― c u (crüt), Wednesday, November 15, 2023 9:15 AM bookmarkflaglink

I was referring to the NY Times story but it's not just that.

A lot of polls and focus groups have Trump an absolute lock for the GOP nomination and Biden losing support quickly.

Love to live in a country where our choices boil down to "genocide supporter" or "guy who wants to bring back concentration camps".

was there a time the United States did not support genocide?

Fair point, but there were a few decades where they at least pretended to not publicly advocate for it at least.

Some of these themes trace back to the final period of Mr. Trump’s term in office. By that stage, his key advisers had learned how to more effectively wield power and Mr. Trump had fired officials who resisted some of his impulses and replaced them with loyalists.

They did not learn how to effectively wield power in the final days.

for Trump, effectively wielding power means finding ways to fire people he don't like

Wray: If you are asking whether the violence the Capitol on Jan 6th was part of some operation orchestrated by operatives/sources, the answer is no

Higgins: Do you know what a ghost bus is? These are nefarious in nature and were filled FBI informants dressed as Trump supporters pic.twitter.com/t8wgitZRy0

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 15, 2023

bro what?

I ain't afraid of no ghost ... bus.

fuck this whole 'just throwing it out there, people are saying' strain the American body politic

people are saying Republicans kill kittens for fun! that's what I hear, everyone is saying it.

But a handful of judges have found that some rioters could not face weightier charges because they had no clue what was happening in the Capitol and therefore couldn’t have intended to block certification of Biden’s victory over Donald Trump.

"Gawrsh, all I did was get on board a bus from Indiana that was painted I LOVE TRUMP, wearing a STOP THE STEAL shirt and carrying zip ties and bear spray. I had no clue what was going on."

Sounds good to me, case dismissed.

Also, it goes without saying but Clay Higgins is an absolute moron.

Wray: Can you explain what a Ghost Bus is?

Higgins: You're leaving a place you know where you're independent and on your own and, in a lot of cases you're going to your house where you grew up with your parents or your friends, and, so there's this transaction mentally that's occurring where you're going from one place toward another but you're not there yet, and while you're traveling you're in this kind of cocoon that's just really dark and weird and surrounded by strangers and you most often have your headphones on and you're trying to shut all that out but usually have trouble sleeping so you're up but you're tired. There's an emotional character to that and there's an emotional character to you getting a cheeseburger at 2:30 in the morning. And the way the lights are and if it's been raining. Ghost Bus has a completely different connotation in England and in Europe. There it's just about shitfaced people piling onto the ghsot bus to get home after a night of heavy drinking.

ha

Roy: One thing. I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing. One. That I can go campaign on and say we did. Anybody sitting in the complex, if you want to come down to the floor and come explain to me, one meaningful, significant thing the Republican majority has done pic.twitter.com/RGc4FTAelt

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 15, 2023

Ghost buses in the sky

Lol

Sorry if this was already posted, but Trump's plans to use the Insurrection Act to deploy the military after his enemies and other assorted changes to the Constitution are absolutely chilling:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/

He may seem like an utter clown and buffoon, but consider that even being out on supervised release for 91 criminal charges, and convicted of sexual assault and on trial for all manner things, he is still leading the polls in 5 swing states.

Lots of low-info voters, or people who - for whatever reason think that a second Trump term is fine.

Would love to see WaPo change their tagline from "Democracy Dies in Darkness" to "Democracy Dies in Broad Fuckin' Daylight."

I'm really starting to think most polling is utter hogshit

I don't pick up numbers I don't recognize on my cellphone... and I rarely listen to rando voicemails left there either. I can't be alone in this. Are they still just calling landlines and hoping they get some bored person who will talk for a few minutes? Like 1993 style?

I wish the wheels of justice turned a little faster

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/15/nevada-false-electors-trump-investigation-00127369

They turn slowly but grind exceedingly fine.

The polls were accurate this year! The problem is now people made saying that because the democrats lived up to the polling numbers in elections this year that means…Biden’s polls are inaccurate.

the problem is Trump doesn't officially have the nomination yet, many of the polls have over 10% "undecided" responses still, we're over a year out, state-level polling aggregated is more valuable than national and it's not yet being done frequently enough by high enough quality pollsters, and there are still plenty of other factors like how Trump's various trials are going to impact him later on the campaign trail, or how Kennedy's independent campaign will impact things. if some of the economic news continues to look better than expected, Biden is also likely to rebound from some of the negative noise that's currently impacting him.

the polls that were accurate in previous Presidential elections weren't the ones that were run a year before the election.

Does the RNC have any kind of contingency plan for Trump splitting the vote/support in the multiple scenarios where he's not or makes himself unable to be the official (R) candidate?

Oh for sure the RNC definitely has very smart and well-thought-out strategies for any eventuality. lol.

I think polls are stupid but my gut tells me that they are directionally correct. again this will hinge on GOTV efforts.

Are they still just calling landlines and hoping they get some bored person who will talk for a few minutes? Like 1993 style?

that nyt swing state poll used a mix of landlines and cell phones. but it's true that the response rate is minuscule.

"...The former president reposted a message that called for a citizen's arrest of Judge Arthur Engoron and Letitia James."

2024 FUCK YEAH

The polls were accurate this year! The problem is now people made saying that because the democrats lived up to the polling numbers in elections this year that means…Biden’s polls are inaccurate.

― deep wubs and tribral rhythms (Boring, Maryland), Wednesday, November 15, 2023 2:10 PM (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

well yeah the fact that Ds continue to decisively win what should be close elections, particularly in swing states, is a good indicator that Biden's poll numbers probably are not gonna wind up being correct. I mean again, we're a year away and I don't think polls this far out have ever really been predictive, its really just all vibes at this point. once the public at large has to hear Trump speak again I guarantee those polls will start looking different.

As I think I pointed out earlier, Trump actually seems fine staying quiet-too-quiet outside of his cult audience this time around. I don’t expect to see him at a single debate ever again.

eh I don't know if he could help himself from doing the presidential ones. not only is it a much bigger audience but the optics of appearing at a debate vs. people you're going to crush is a lot different than going up against the person you just lost against. especially when your entire attack line is that he's senile and can't speak or whatever