rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I used to work with this lady who loved to point out that we had this restaurant near the lake called "The Oar House". To her this was the funniest thing that has ever happened in human civilization. I swear every single day I'd hear her talking about it. Especially during lunch time..."Should we go to the Oar House? You know, the Oar House? Do you understand what I am saying? It sounds like Whore House? Has anyone ever heard of The Oar House?". Anyway, this woman had some thoughts about Barack Obama

At my old job one of the partners would walk around the office every Friday and every Friday, at every desk he stopped by, he would lead with "are we done yet?" as if it was the most witty possible thing to say.

I find enthusiastic anti-Trump Democrat party boosters absolutely exhausting and frequently as deluded and myopic as the nutjobs at a Trump rally in their own way, not directed at anyone here. But I understand how racial minorities/trans people with absolutely legitimate fears for even their right to exist if a white supremacist Mussolini wanabe won, can both either decide to cover their nose and vote against the danger or decide they hate the Dems enough not to support them. What angers me about this godawful iteration of democracy through fear is how it suits the agenda of all the worst people in both parties to have a fascist bogeyman who wins the odd election. Admittedly this is based on the continued existence of general elections and the existing constitution. Oh fuck knows, I'm a Brit so apologies if this is is annoying.

I find enthusiastic anti-Trump Democrat party boosters absolutely exhausting and frequently as deluded and myopic as the nutjobs at a Trump rally in their own way

Don't turn on MSNBC.

At my old job one of the partners would walk around the office every Friday and every Friday, at every desk he stopped by, he would lead with "are we done yet?" as if it was the most witty possible thing to say.

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, November 3, 2023 2:34 PM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LtjzQaFZ3k

don't worry. it's the US constitution's paranoia about allowing democracy to function that is beyond annoying.

Democrat party boosters

As yr British I’ll assume this is an honest mistake, but fwiw “Democrat party” is a dumb right-wing insult here in the US of A. They refuse to say “Democratic” on the ostensible grounds that it isn’t really democratic. (It’s weird that they still do this now that conservatives have decided that democracy itself is bad, but I think it’s so engrained at this point that they can’t help it.)

sorry about that, pure ignorance on my side here. lol, how the Trump Cases turned me into a budding Fred B wading into a\ political culture I know nothing about.

I for one enjoy your enthusiasm for this madness

That's how I see it as well. I have a lot of issues with Biden too, but if I'm being honest he's almost certainly the best President of my lifetime.

― frogbs, Friday, November 3, 2023 11:06 AM (ten hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Aren't you older than me? You probably got a year or two of Carter, no?

I find enthusiastic anti-Trump Democrat party boosters absolutely exhausting and frequently as deluded and myopic as the nutjobs at a Trump rally in their own way, not directed at anyone here. But I understand how racial minorities/trans people with absolutely legitimate fears for even their right to exist if a white supremacist Mussolini wanabe won, can both either decide to cover their nose and vote against the danger or decide they hate the Dems enough not to support them. What angers me about this godawful iteration of democracy through fear is how it suits the agenda of all the worst people in both parties to have a fascist bogeyman who wins the odd election.

every word of this is otm

despite my feelings expressed above biden is far and away better than carter

I'm interested to hear more on this, I could imagine Biden has Jimmy licked on domestic policies like student debt relief and doing grand performative gestures like turning up on picket lines. Stuff like the latter I'm completely cynical about, but my head would explode if the UK LOTO did the same.

Carter's easier on the eyes tho

I'm interested to hear more on this, I could imagine Biden has Jimmy licked on domestic policies like student debt relief and doing grand performative gestures like turning up on picket lines. Stuff like the latter I'm completely cynical about, but my head would explode if the UK LOTO did the same.

― vodkaitamin effrtvescent (calzino)

Student debt relief isn't really his to claim credit for. The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS bill, taking COVID seriously (in early 2021, that is), his positions on the WGA and auto strikes -- these are real achievements I can endorse, not to mention the pace at which he appointed judges.

Good summa: https://www.vox.com/politics/23697855/joe-biden-popularity-legislative-record

to interrogate an old Cronenberg shocker quote "even old flesh is erotic"!

Yeah, well I've seen his new flesh and consider the source

Yeah, well I've seen his new flesh and consider the source

― Dwigt Rortugal (Eric H.),

Back to the Copacabana.

You sly puss.

long live the new flesh

Meet the new flesh, same as the old flesh

Can't be held responsible
We were only fleshmen

Flesh for fantasy

carter for the hose

The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS bill, taking COVID seriously (in early 2021, that is), his positions on the WGA and auto strikes -- these are real achievements I can endorse, not to mention the pace at which he appointed judges.

These but also I think he's done a lot of climate/environment stuff that really doesn't get talked about all that much. the money to 9/11 victims, extending temporary protection for Venezuelan immigrants, PACT act, Afghanistan withdrawal, Ukraine support, lifting sanctions on Rojava

He's not exactly the best publicist for some of these things, and in some ways I think people are still seeing the virgin 2020 candidate and not the chad president. I'm not sure there's ever been a wider gap between two candidates before either.

His poll numbers took a serious hit after the Afghanistan withdrawal from which he's never recovered, yeah

Aren't you older than me? You probably got a year or two of Carter, no?

― The SoyBoy West Coast (Whiney G. Weingarten), Friday, November 3, 2023 8:26 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

86, dog

How would you rate him in comparison to Eisenhower?

I wasn't that worried before, but now I am

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

Polls a year before an election don't mean jack -- and I simply don't believe that Trump leads in Michigan. People -- Dems -- are simply not paying attention now. Too damn early.

Cue the chorus of “fuck you NYT” but I’m with you jaymc

It's in our nature to fret.

Also:

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them.

Is it too much to ask for evidence -- a quote from Larry at the diner who wonders why he couldn't take two summer vacations this year because Brandon?

I agree that a lot can change in a year. I do think that Trump won't be as attractive to voters as he becomes more visible on the campaign trail.

What I worry about is how sticky the "Biden is too old" and "The economy is terrible" narratives have proven to be.

alfred you ask for evidence but when confronted by the poll results you say they don't mean jack. so what would you accept as evidence?

Trump dead of a coronary.

Also once campaigning begins in earnest it’s likely Trump’s campaign message will be “I wuz robbed in 2020” and that’s a proven loser of a message already.

And, I can’t stress this enough, he’s going to pick an absolute lunatic (probably someone who lost last year like Kari Lake) as his running mate, and that will have a negative effect.

re: economic narrative, I know we all like Line Goes Up graphs showing that actually the economy is doing gangbusters but I don't know many people for whom that's a, uh, lived experience. I don't have a large close social circle but there were more layoffs among my friends over the last year than ever. Electricity prices here remain almost double what they were a couple of years ago, housing (rental) prices have only continued to spiral. Are those Biden's fault? Clearly not but economic malaise always gets dumped on the man/party in the White House. Thank god gas remains relatively cheap.

https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2023/10/31/the-economy-versus-the-economic-system/

Also: 22 percent of Blacks support Trump? Really? He earned 8 percent in 2020; the highest any Republican's earned in the last 60 years is 12 percent for Jerry Ford. I don't buy it.

I think the biggest thing people are reacting too economically is still just inflation, prices are very high relative to a few years ago, there's no way around that. Plus also a general sense of instability that just hasn't subsided post-pandemic. (plz no arguments about whether we are actually post-pandemic, you know what I mean.)

And yes polls this far out are super dubious, and also Trump's negatives are super high, this won't be a normal fresh-faced challenger vs. beleaguered incumbent election. BUT. Biden's numbers are terrible by historical standards for an incumbent to win reelection. There's no way around that either.

xp He may pick a lunatic, but he won’t pick a proven loser

I feel like the central fact of Biden's unpopularlity just hasn't seeped into a lot of Democratic partisans' consciousness. He is very, very unpopular. The economy is part of it, his age is definitely a big part of it, and his general message of "Things are OK, firm hand on the tiller, steady as we go" is basically not persuasive on any count. Trump's general message of "Things are terrible and I'm super pissed off" feels more in line with a lot of people's experiences, even if the things he's pissed off about aren't actually the things they're pissed off about.

xxp Trump's support among Black men may reach double digits, but 22% seems wildly inflated. He'll be lucky to hit 5% among Black women.

tipsy otm

I do see Trump resonating with Black voters on real life, for exactly the reasons tipsy stated. Trump gets closer than any other president to upending the status quo that has never, ever worked out for them

Black men, yes. Not so sure about Black women, long the sturdiest of Dems.

A thread:

A. Aggregated battleground polls are stupid. They make zero sense

B. Donald Trump isn’t getting 20% of black voters

C. NYT poll says 10% of the battleground-state electorate didn’t vote in famously low-turnout 2020, & they favor Trump by 14 points. 2020 voters are Biden+5

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) November 5, 2023

re: economic narrative, I know we all like Line Goes Up graphs showing that actually the economy is doing gangbusters but I don't know many people for whom that's a, uh, lived experience. I don't have a large close social circle but there were more layoffs among my friends over the last year than ever. Electricity prices here remain almost double what they were a couple of years ago, housing (rental) prices have only continued to spiral. Are those Biden's fault? Clearly not but economic malaise always gets dumped on the man/party in the White House. Thank god gas remains relatively cheap.

Point taken. I think a big part of the problem is that positive narratives about Biden that might counteract "too old" and "economy bad" haven't really taken hold (for plenty of good reasons both within and outside of the party's control).

Biden just needs to run on abortion

He also needs Trump to run on compulsory impregnation of white women

xp He may pick a lunatic, but he won’t pick a proven loser

Pillow guy it is then!