2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

Like I've said, McCain's problem has always been getting to the GE (because he's hated by lots of the GOP's core constituency, precisely because he hasn't always followed the party line), but he's in much better shape -- for exactly the same reasons -- once he gets to a GE.

Daniel, what do you think of the line "John McCain has sold out his principles in exchange for his party's nomination," or the notion that he's a respected figure fronting an effort to smuggle the GOP party line back into the White House? It's a strong charge, sure, but there's some support for that argument to be had.

That and that McCain has the "straight-talking maverick" label going for him (which may be a canard in reality, but voters love the image)

This is indeed a canard, Daniel, since the GOP doesn't trust him and any independent who might have voted for him has read the paper trail of compromises – like today's SHAMEFUL waterboarding vote.

Elmo: I think that will be helpful against McCain. And I do think we ought to charge directly at his perceived strengths.

Alfred: You're right. But people generally vote on vague notions, not specific policy positions. The challenge will be to cast McCain in a new -- and negative -- light. Given that McCain's real constituency is the MSM, that won't be easy.

so far "straight talk" has yielded one phrase that the Dem nominees are already beating McCain over the head with (100 years in Iraq) and another that they'll probably be using soon (I don't know much about the economy better get crackin' and read Greenspan's book)

Meanwhile, who benefits and who suffers if this guy runs as a third-party candidate?

mccain cant help himself w/that 100 years in iraq stuff - its not straight talk its just a stubborn old man duh

the "100 years in iraq" thing is really overblown

I mean, regardless of who becomes president we will have troops there for a very long time

mccain's support is not only shaky it's schizophrenic. among his supporters are people who are still enthusiastically pro-war, AND otherwise moderate-to-conservative types who are wholly disenchanted with the war. he skates on reputation but none of his candidacy makes much sense -- how long can this completely impossible coalition hold together based on personality?

i'm not saying it's going to be easy beating him cos yeah the press has a hardon for the guy, but there's a strong whiff of giuliani about him.

daniel's right. McCain's 'frame' is up in the air with the gop confusion and it's a matter of who defines it forcefully enough and quickly enough for any of those semi-abstractions to make any difference.

how long can this completely impossible coalition hold together based on personality?

Through his inauguration.

im quite certain that bloomberg is just manipulating the media into raising his public profile as no one would ever in a million years actually vote for him - the nyc mayoralty has a term limit of 2 you know

"we're in a tough spot, my friends, but we gotta just grit our teeth and soldier it out, shit will happen and people will suffer and there's nothing we can do about it. so vote for me."

Bloomberg is a police-state-friendly social "liberal." I think he'd make McCain easier pickings for Obama, but I also don't see him running now.

one thing that doesnt bode well for mccain is that he was left for dead just a few months ago - then everyone realized they really hated the rest of the guys to they gave him a second shot - ie its not love

daniel are you trying to scare us into fundraising or something? i think mccain is the best shot the GOP could have fielded this time around, but c'mon the deck is stacked against him pretty badly, and his liabilities are big.

kerry 08 could beat mccain 08

what do you think of the line "John McCain has sold out his principles in exchange for his party's nomination," or the notion that he's a respected figure fronting an effort to smuggle the GOP party line back into the White House?

-- elmo

any independent who might have voted for him has read the paper trail of compromises

-- Alfred

It's foolish to predict how well or poorly a canditate will do by analyzing their actions in light of your own values. I don't think either of elmo's arguments are popular memes w/ potential McCain supporters, though the second will undoubtedly be an issue in the GE.

And Alfred makes too many assumptions, both WRT what independents believe and what they read.

haha and i already talked to tremendoid i know hes just siding with dan to lower his own expectations

"we're in a tough spot, my friends, but we gotta just grit our teeth and soldier it out, shit will happen and people will suffer and there's nothing we can do about it. so vote for me."

-- elmo argonaut

Try: "War is a hard business. I know that better than most. For that reason, I won't send troops into war foolishly. But once we're there -- and once we've committed ourselves to a dangerous mission -- we must see it through. We must do the things that other nations can't or won't, because we are a special nation, built on courage and grit. I will bring our troops home as soon as I can, but I won't make promises to you that I can't keep, and I'll always level with you. That is something you can take to the bank, and something I hope you'll vote on."

NM WINNER BEING ANNOUNCED NOW

No, I'm not trying to scare you. But I think McCain will be tough to beat. Obama can do it (I'm far less convinced HRC can), but it won't be easy.

though i will say that one thing obama has over either of the other candidates is supporter enthusiasm. his base of support is a lot more solid than hrc's or mccain's (for now at least). and i don't think that's to be overlooked.

^^^^ Yes.

folks there are independents who legitimately feel they don't fit comfortably into either party and then there are independents who are just fkn clueless

xp, and the american people respond: "let me level with you president mccain, this war is a dog and we want it over with"

Hope you're right.

War is a hard business. I know that better than most. For that reason, I won't send troops into war foolishly. But once we're there -- and once we've committed ourselves to a dangerous mission -- we must see it through. We must do the things that other nations can't or won't, because we are a special nation, built on courage and grit. I will bring our troops home as soon as I can, but I won't make promises to you that I can't keep, and I'll always level with you. That is something you can take to the bank, and something I hope you'll vote on.

lol i hope you enjoy yr retirement

LOL. Maybe McCain won't retire, but I'll have to as an armchair speechwriter.

gr80 where are you seeing NM results?

CNN

right now at least i think the line on mccain, which has the virtue of being true, is that he's bush's third term

OBAMA: 71,396
EDWARDS 2,157
DODD 81
KUCINICH 574
RICHARDSON 1,305
BIDEN 122
HILLARY 73,105

well shit

LOL jack cafferty bagging on boring-ass NM election official

haha, $10 says penn/wolfson/et al. try to play NM as 'the end of the o-mentum'

oh well if you just look at the exit polls

continues the trend of obama losing by small margins and winning by big ones.

See Physicians for a National Health Program site for details.

Uh I'd trust them for info on health care about as much as I'd trust Exxon for info on energy policy.

Cutting costs is part and parcel of any healthcare reform package.

Single-payer is considered politically unfeasible because, while it would cost less per person, it would shift the costs from employers to the government, and while at the end of the day that money is still coming out of the pockets of American workers, the consensus is that Americans wouldn't really see it that way.

don't snark man PNHP is a good organization. there are a lot of liberal and left wing doctors out there who hate insurance companies just as much as you do.

besides, for your analogy to work, the doctors themselves = the dudes working on exxon's oil rigs

wtf @ "winning" by less than 2,000 votes

why is that wtf

a win's a win

or are you just saying "damn, tight contest"

'Cause Simon pointed that out already

It's interesting if you read Obama's latest economic speeches, like the one he gave in Wisconsin yesterday, they sound like nothing so much as '90s Clintonomics redux. Bill Clinton was considered a "technocrat" (more neutrally) or a "triangulator" (more negatively) by contemporary commentators, for his micro-initiative approach to dealing with the economy. He was famous for having a targeted tax credit for every problem. Now look at Obama's speech - targeted tax credits galore. There's even a "Credit Card Bill of Rights" - remember the "Patients Bill of Rights"? Obama seems to decry NAFTA, but if you read what he actually promises closely, he's pretty moderate on trade as well: "I won't stand here and tell you that we can - or should - stop free trade." In fact, it's easy to close your eyes and imagine the whole speech being given by Bill Clinton in 1996. The irony, of course, is that Obama famously stated that the Republicans have been the party of ideas for the past 15 years or so, a none too subtle dig at Bill Clinton. It takes some chutzpah for him to make a criticism like that, when his own economicy policy is pretty much lifted wholesale from the Clinton playbook.

the "100 years in iraq" thing is really overblown

overblown, please, a fucking gift is what it is

Only slightly more than: "bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran."

And Alfred makes too many assumptions, both WRT what independents believe and what they read.

-- contenderizer, Thursday, 14 February 2008 22:06 (51 minutes ago) Link

I knew someone would get it wrong. Here's what I tried to say: by the time of the general election, Obama or HRC should actively woo indepedents by reminding those swinging leftwards that McCain is a coward on torture and FISA, and those swinging rightwards that he has no clue what to do with the economy.

It's fairly easy if Obama doesn't pussy out because McCain's an old man.

what most terrifies me about an Obama vs McCain election -- and no one's really talkign about it -- is the younger man showing deference to his opponent's age, seniority, and "life of public service." That twaddle sank Mondale in '84 before he even had a chance.