ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Ugh, just come across the word (verb) "attrit" in an article about Ukraine. Inevitably, one feels, it's a word used by the US military.

can confirm via watching terrible youtubes

Something about Bucha that was difficult to follow - and was brought up by the Wagner guy, not the interviewer.

- Says the civilians there were killed by Ukrainian artillery but then Russian soldiers who had been there ran into trouble with the FSB because of it and were 'negotiated into Belarus" where they faced physical consequences that went beyond simple broken bones. The FSB seemed to have heavily interrogated some Russian soldiers based on western media reports. He knew this because he was later in trenches with people who had been at Bucha

Ukraine Special Forces conducting attacks in Sudan? WTF
Maybe we are heading to WWIII after all

Exclusive: Ukraine’s special services ‘likely’ behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, a Ukrainian military source says

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

😕

Israel we know what you feel today.
Be strong.
Ukrainians with you.

— Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) October 7, 2023

Uh???

after Israel didn't lift a finger to help Ukraine last year too

true, but I think this attack is being backed by Iran and that's not good for anyone.

lol

Do we have much of an idea of how much population transfer there has been in Mariupol over the last year? My assumption is that most of the people that have been moved into Russia were moved out of Mariupol and that this is also where resettlement and replacement from Russia has been concentrated - especially with it being the only major city under Russian control that is out of the originally occupied territories

I don't really have a handle on just how many people currently living in Mariupol are settlers in comparison to the pre-2022 population, because that seems a massively complicating factor

Strange chess game going on here

Ukrainian special forces are reportedly operating in Sudan in support of the country’s army against Russian Wagner mercenaries aligned with the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to a video released on Monday... it has surfaced following months of speculation that Ukrainian forces are operating in Sudan as part of an emerging campaign by Kyiv to strike at Russian interests far beyond the Ukraine war’s frontlines.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/06/ukrainian-special-forces-sudan-russian-mercenaries-wagner

Ukraine is reportedly struggling to train enough troops for its own front lines and keep them supplied. Sending some of their best trained troops to Sudan seems like a strange tactic, if that is true.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking as well... their expertise would seem to be more useful on the home front

Not sure what the strategy is here

theyre fighting russia

i think thats the basic idea, as to why they would choose to fight them in sudan specifically my guess would be russias african operations are a big profit center and a fairly soft target so they are maybe thinking they can inflict some damage on russias bottom line without that much effort

much more detailed reporting here:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

that footage of the pickup is crazy

CNN--Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence claims it has confirmed the use of Starlink satellite communications by Russian forces in occupied areas.

It says it has intercepted conversations which indicate the Starlink terminals are being used to provide internet access to Russia’s 83rd Air Assault Brigade operating in the Donetsk region.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, which owns Starlink, says it does not do business of any kind with the Russian government or its military.

“If SpaceX obtains knowledge that a Starlink terminal is being used by a sanctioned or unauthorized party, we investigate the claim and take actions to deactivate the terminal if confirmed,” the company said in a statement.
Starlink, which uses a network of satellites to provide broadband, says its service will not work in Russia, although the statement didn’t address whether it would work in occupied Ukraine.

The service plays a crucial role in Ukrainian battlefield communications. Last year, Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate, said “absolutely all front lines are using them.”

Ukraine’s claim follows revelations about the satellite system’s use in the war made in a biography of Starlink’s owner Elon Musk, written by Walter Isaacson.

According to an excerpt from the book, Musk secretly ordered his engineers to turn off his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet.

As Ukrainian submarine drones strapped with explosives approached the Russian fleet, they “lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly,” Isaacson writes.

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson.

A more detailed quote in Reuters. coverage:

"Cases of the Russian occupiers' use of the given devices have been registered. It is beginning to take on a systemic nature," the Ukrainian defence ministry's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) quoted spokesman Andriy Yusov as saying.

Situation worsening in Avdiivka. Media attention is more focused on funding and support rather than situation on ground right now, but fairly intense at the moment and potentially quite consequential

Situation in Avdiivka getting the most media attention, but Kupyansk looking bad as well now, Ammunition shortage starting to bite. I don't know just how consequential this is, but I presume this starts to make Kharkiv more vulnerable?

Not sure where the last few posts went but anyway here's Perun's look at what's actually in the aid package and what impact it may have

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/11/victoria-nuland-state-department-diplomat-interview-00157408

Pretty innocuous interview, doesn't really say anything of note. She's kind of a strange in that certain articles or circles she's made into a kind of Soros type figure, where invocation of name alone is enough to convey all sorts of information

her demonization could be an after effect of Trump's first impeachment over his "perfect" phone call to Zelensky

I can't really tell whats happening with Russia's new Kharkiv offensive. It doesn't look they've anywhere near enough personnel to be able to take the city, which leaves either buffer zone or diversion to fix Ukrainian troops as possible reasons

But fixing troops here also involves diverting Russia's troops too

The only thing I can think is maybe getting a bit closer to the city might bring it within more reachable tube artillery range, making strikes both more effective and more cost-effective and potentially induce the population to leave, as apparently many have moved back home over the last 12-18 months, and the population isn't that far off what it was in 2021, back above a million again

Though It might be there isn't a specific plan and its more of a speculative approach

getting a bit closer to the city might bring it within more reachable tube artillery range, making strikes both more effective and more cost-effective

As speculations go, that's quite plausible. Also, the pipeline of US military aid that just started back up recently hasn't had much time to backfill the shortages caused by the long wrangle in Congress.

Its not all that clear what Russia prefers to do with the population of Kharkiv. Getting closer to it would increase its ability to shell it with lower cost munitions which would presumably pressure inhabitants to start leaving again for safer locations.

But with Mariupol Russia seemed reluctant to let the population leave, though eventually they replaced some of the inhabitants via population transfer (I'm unclear on how large this transfer was but given the reported numbers I presume the majority of these were from Mariupol, maybe Melitopol)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=829nvzjbPPA

Perun's take on the current situation in Kharkiv, listened to on my run this morning, not really any clear answers., though one interesting angle is the idea that bringing Kharkiv within tube artillery range would lead to increased headlines in the West about Russian advances, with possible idea of persuading voters in Europe and the US that a Russian victory is inevitable and therefore its best to stop supplying Ukraine.

Difficult to know if that would have any real effect or not, apparently one poll in Europe from Feb of this year had "A Russian victory is most likely outcome" at 20% (he does cite his sources but I was listening not watching so I don' have source to hand)

If the war comes down to a long stalemate and its attendant attrition then Russia, by dint of its sheer size advantage, has a clear but very costly and bloody path to victory.

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-rod-stewart-booed-by-german-crowd-while-making-show-of-support-for-ukraine-13154166

Okay but why?

AfD supporters? War fatigue? Apparently the Germans are dragging their heels over natural gas sanctions too.

The AfD does pretty well in Leipzig so that possible. War fatigue maybe but to some extent its dropped out of the news in recent months in some countries, not sure when on Germany though. There have also been some attacks on Ukrainians recently in Germany, including the murder of a 9 year old recently, coincidentally also just outside Leipzig

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/us-germany-foiled-russian-assassination-plot

This is pretty wild.

Trump's pick of Vance for the VP slot doesn't look good. Vance has been one of the most strident voices against US aid to Ukraine in the Republican party.

Ukrainian soldiers have crossed over the border into the Kursk region of Russia... this wasn't special forces but at least 300 regular soldiers

Pretty ballsy, Putin convened a meeting about it

This incursion into Russia is something else... I'm not sure what the strategy is, but it's a bloody nose, I'll take it

Cf. Lee's Maryland campaigns

Putin is nervously calling it terrorism rather than an invasion and allegedly only using FSB personnel and raw recruits to counter it to little effect. Ukraine have set up a Kursk commandant's office to police something like over a 1000 square miles of Russian territory, that's not really terrorism by any stretch. God I really hate getting into this because all war is shit, but it is an interesting development.

its a special military operation i suppose

Ukraine needs to have something to negotiate with if talks ever happen.

I don't imagine they expected it to be so easy and rapidly successful, maybe originally it was a tactic to draw away troops from defensive frontlines. But now they've Big Sam in!

That but also maybe to normalise actions on RU territory to loosen conditions on what and when Ukraine are allowed to do with western kit

Although Russia's actually this is not really a big deal response is interesting. Putin seems reticent to move troops to defend it, could potentially leave it as is for time being even. The response and evacuations are more like that of an occurrence of a flood or natural disaster

Russia seems like a macaroon, hard on the outside, soft on the inside.. once you're in, you have the run of the place

China should annex Siberia, perfect timing

I would say its probably relatively brittle in terms of structure, but at the same time although I think this weakens Putin to some degree and not an insignificant degree the fact defending Kursk isn't seen as a priority by Putin (or even by anyone else?) is telling.

This is not good.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/29/russia-north-korean-troops-ukraine-war

there's a history of Russia using N Koreans as slave labour so this feels like an extension of that

cannon fodder

I didn't realize it was that many troops