what the fuck is happening in Russia?

they've definitely sold the war to Russians as a purely defensive one, I don't think they talk much about de-Nazification anymore.. now it's an existential battle for the Motherland

Strelkov arrested on charges of extremism. Wonder why now?

Gubarev as well and possibly Alknis, the Angry Patriots being targeted but unclear how serious

Whats the story behind whats happening right now in Makhachkala? Unintended consequence of Moscow's recent turn away from Israel? I'd assumed actual control of the region is handled similarly to Chechnya rather than directly from Moscow but hazy on that, either way no significant unrest or protest prior to this over disproportionate mobilisation or other issues over the last 18 months, though this would be something of an easier target and maybe an outlet for building tension over that too

I was mildly surprised that Makhachkala was considered a suitable destination for a flight from Tel Aviv, but checking the redwings site that is one of their normal routes

I don't know much about it other than what I read in the FT, which has had several articles. My impression was that it was a combination of people reading the tea leaves that Moscow was taking a more critical stance against Israel, and also the fact that Dagestan has been kept on a short leash (the current government leader is a military guy who was formerly in charge of "counter-terrorism" operations in the North Caucasus) with respect to expressions of popular dissatisfaction and pressure had been building up. Also apparently Dagestan is a popular transiting stop for passengers from Israel connecting to other destinations in Russia.

what i've gathered is that there's been a lot of anger on social media there about all the civilian deaths in gaza, and some telegram channels incited the anti-semitic mobs at the airport, taking advantage of the anger about gaza. one of the telegram channels responsible for the incitement is known to have had ties with russian dissident figure ilya ponomarev, but he's denied any current involvement.

Presidential elections set for March 17. Putin has confirmed he will be standing again.

Interestingly Girkin is a candidate

he's already in a pickle for calling Putin "weak" (apologies).

I've just seen that Putin is normally priced around 1/5 to win presidential elections, now he's drifting out slightly to 4/11 because of the war.

that is old odds I was reading from months ago, I think he will be about 1/5 and was previously drifting because:

It’s not that new betting sites think he can lose the next election, it’s that they reckon he might not be there to contest it.

Kinda funny he can't just say 'ok ok we actually are at war so no election' not that having one is much risk more just why trouble yourself with the charade at all.

war SMO

Girkin posted this on his Telegram channel earlier this year and is currently in pretrial detention after getting charged with "public calls for extremism" :

“For 23 years, the country was led by a lowlife who managed to ‘blow dust in the eyes’ of a significant part of the population. Now he is the last island of legitimacy and stability of the state, But the country will not be able to withstand another six years of this cowardly bum in power.”

Where were you seeing those betting odds Calzino? It never occurred to me to even look!. Though that looks to be too inconsequential a movement to be indicative of anything? Its not unfeasible to assume he runs again and wins in 2030 either

why trouble yourself with the charade at all.

While I wouldn't exactly call it an election as such, I think it does serve a purpose thats more than a charade. While its more of a validation exercise than anything else, that still serves as a purpose, especially to the passive/depoliticized majority, as an affirmation of the man rather than any specific policies or actions.

The fact the result will probably be 75-80% rather than 95%+ I think shows an intention to choreograph a certain level of plausibility

Having said that, who knows on the results, things are different than 2018 so it might not follow the same pattern - were there odds on the margin of victory?

https://smarkets.com/event/42623628/politics/europe/2025/01/01/00-00/russia/2024/04/07/12-00/2024-russian-presidential-election

https://www.gambling.com/uk/news/russian-election-betting-odds

xps

in the top link you can get 1.01 on a Putin presidential win which is like 1/100! I couldn't find anything on oddchecker though and the other link is out of date.

Today, as on Friday, the lawyers tried to get to IK-6 and IK-7 — two colonies in the Vladimir region where Alexey @navalny might be. They have just been informed simultaneously in both colonies that he is not there.

We still don't know where Alexey is.

— Кира Ярмыш (@Kira_Yarmysh) December 11, 2023

(missed this one)

Pro-Putin regional politician found dead outside his house
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/28/europe/egorov-russia-dead-outside-house/index.html

A politician from the party of Russian President Vladimir Putin has been found dead in a courtyard outside his home, local media reported Thursday, adding to the growing list of Russian elites who have died under unclear circumstances in recent months.

Vladimir Egorov, a Tobolsk City Duma Deputy from the ruling United Russia party, was reportedly 46 at the time of his death, which was reported by Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing the press service of the Investigative Committee for the Tyumen Region in Russia.

There were no “external signs of criminal death” on Egorov’s body, investigators told Kommersant. The committee “could not confirm the information about the circumstances of the deputy’s death” to Kommersant, it said, as they are “still conducting an autopsy.”

Russian state media TASS meanwhile reported on Thursday that Egorov “was found dead in Tobolsk,” also citing the regional committee. And unofficial Telegram channel Baza – which has links to Russian security services – said Egorov’s body “was discovered in the courtyard of his house on Kedrovaya Street” on Wednesday.

Kommersant and TASS reported that investigators are still establishing the causes of Egorov’s death, while the Tobolsk City Duma published an obituary on its social media page Thursday saying that Egorov died “as a result of an accident.”

some interesting things happening in bashkortostan, which just happens to be the biggest republic within russia

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/01/17/riot-police-clash-with-thousands-of-protesters-following-activist-s-sentencing-in-russia-s-republic-of-bashkortostan

I know its not directly linked but I think Bashkortostan overperformed in mobilisation, relative to other regions, which may be a contributory factor in unrest. I think fastest to achieve its targets. Will have to go check that, so take with pinch of salt

With the Ukrainian children that have been transferred into Russia, I can't really tell where they're going to be resettled, or how they're being distributed across the country. It seems plausible it could be part of a program to change the ethnic makeup of particular regions via a form of population transfer, but without knowing where they're being sent to and in what numbers, difficult to tell

Russia's horrible demographics obviously worsened by the invasion, but at the same time if figures are correct, 0.5% of Russia's current population is an abducted Ukrainian child (as of last July, could be higher now), so at some point the invasion potentially has a net positive in terms of population

nothing to do directly with the war. I have seen Russian youtubers uploading vids of the old dilapidated Soviet heating systems that are still in use that are out of operation because of freezing burst pipes and people are saying this shit is unacceptable, there is a crowd huddled around a fire chanting "We are freezing!". Roads flooding with water because of burst water pipes. Because of slashed municipal budgets and the war drain on workers there are piles of rotting rubbish are being buried in the snow rather than collected and infrastructure maintenance seems almost non-existent. I didn't catch the locations but obv not Moscow. Idk maybe it's always a bit like this in the provinces, but the war has certainly made it much worse.

Novosibirsk, will be one of them. Provincial yes, but Russia's 3rd largest city, one of the fastest growing, and 90%+ ethnically Russian. Maybe kind of an Edmonton equivalent

Thoughts on Putins margin of victory in next months election, and on Nadezhdin?

I can't tell but it feels like the Kremlin got caught in some indecision over Nadezhdin, if they pull the plug after letting him get this far (unless it was a weird way of extrapolating potential support via petition size). Putin also seems caught between the two stools of wanting a resounding margin of victory at the same time as a feeling of legitimacy (with that line creeping ever upwards). Where the right line is for that is I don't know

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/08/russian-anti-war-candidate-boris-nadezhdin-says-he-is-barred-from-election

Interesting article on the intellectual roots of Putin's Eurasian vision:

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/

Estonian PM Kaja Kallas placed on the list of wanted persons

Almost as amusing as Trump this guy: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/vladimir-putin-tucker-carlson-interview-footage-sharp-questions

Elsewhere in his interview with Zarubin, Putin said that he preferred Joe Biden to Donald Trump but was willing to work with any US president.

Zarubin asked the president who was “better for us” out of Biden, a Democrat, and Trump, a Republican.

Putin replied without hesitation: “Biden. He is a more experienced, predictable person, a politician of the old school,” but added “we will work with any US president who the American people have confidence in.”

the russian media is fawning over carlson being amazed at low grocery prices in moscow - well, yeah, when the average monthly salary is $770 and the government controls many prices, what do you expect, you idiot? but hey maybe he’ll move to russia

Navalny dead, reportedly.

Strange a prison wouldn't have bars on its hospital windows.

I’m thinking particularly of this remarkable interview where he describes what Novichok poisoning actually feels like. https://t.co/gla6V4z1Yw

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) February 16, 2024

Yep, even if he wasn’t bashed on the head today, he was murdered by the state as surely as Nemtsov via that poisoning and subsequent denial of medical services.

never understood why he returned to russia after his hospitalization

There is of course a long, proud tradition of Russian dissidents writing in exile, so yeah, I don't know why he went back, knowing it meant at least more imprisonment, if not certain death. Pretty tragic.

That doc (HBO?) was pretty great. The guy had cojones.

“I have to go back.” Speaking just before he returned to Russia, Navalny told me: “I don’t think that I can have such a privilege of being safe in Russia, but I have to go back, because I don’t want this group of killers [to] exist in Russia. I don’t want Putin ruling Russia.” pic.twitter.com/ScgHCb7jYu

— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour) February 16, 2024

Also not obvious he would have been safe in Germany given how many people have been murdered by ‘autonomous patriots’ like Vadim Krasikov in the last few years.

Interesting read on the aftermath

The Federal Penitentiary Service has announced the death of Alexei. However, it remains crucial to await confirmation from his legal team and family. So far, here are my reflections on the matter:

First, politically speaking, it's a difficult truth, but Navalny's decision to…

— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) February 16, 2024

"this fash cunt was Russia's Mandela" lads my head hurts i've lost touch with words

Maybe we should have a rolling islamophobia thread, until we do this goes here I guess

Navalny referring to Muslims as cockroaches and advocating for their extermination https://t.co/uxvoCKtr5g pic.twitter.com/SJHmzTTpru

— j (@jrc1921) February 16, 2024

Masha Gessen on Navalny and nationalism in 2021:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-evolution-of-alexey-navalnys-nationalism

Worth keeping in mind that Russia likens all its enemies to right wing Nazis, but Navaly by all accounts evolved past any such inclinations. I think that video is from 2007.

I'm not celebrating his death, and I'm sure he would have been better than Putin, but not going to beatify him either, as our politicians seem to be doing.

Navalny had moved past the overt far-right stuff, and those clips are all 15 or so years ago, I agree.

That being said, I'm not convinced by how much he had moved past it, and I don't think there was anything positive about him either, and a Russia with less corruption but continued colonialist aspirations would also be a worry

As to our politicians beatifying him, I see that as a form of political technology. Whether it serves a purpose or is counter-productive I can't really tell. It is kind of weird when even much more overt people like Strelkov are just called "opposed to Putin" without providing context of "wants to kill harder and faster", but at same time "puts opposition leader in jail" or "kills opposition leader" is the story regardless

I don't think there was anything positive about him either,

Actually, going back over it, I'm kind of on the fence about this. In some ways its easy to look at it like "he just wanted to get rid of the corruption and didn't have a problem with invading Ukraine or colonialism in general" and I've kind of reflexively in that position. Likely partly subconsciously as a reaction to western praise. But I'm not all that sure about relying on 15+ year old clips, regardless of being somewhat dubious of how much changed, or how much that was misjudged triangulation in first place. Russia doesnt have all the much room for manoeuvre

He was at best a quasi-liberal Russian chauvinist late into his career but opposed to the most recent Ukraine war and idk if he landed substantially to the right of a lot of the Western politicians memorialising him. There has barely been any mention of, let alone support for, his politics vs his undeniable bravery and the loss to the wider pro-democracy movement

I think thats fair. Its complicated, especially when assessing someone over a long period of time

I think its also appropriate to judge people from the context in which they operate in, more than the one I operate in

what was Navalny's position on those uniquely Russian supermarket trollies with coin deposit slots, just asking for Tucker Carlson.

unique how? coin deposit shopping trollies are standard in Portugal, France.

There's plenty of them over here too but I imagine they're all unique to Tucker Carlson.

ah ok wasn't aware of the tucker video, sorry calz