what the fuck is happening in Russia?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acl_k4Xav_A

Interesting interview with Russian volunteer medic who was on the Kharkiv front. The interviewer struggling a little bit but does a good job, though the guy is a touch unnerving

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QGaKhiOCTo

Part II

A little less intense but might just be that I got used to his weird laughing at stuff. Thought the interviewer did a good job in keeping himself to a minimum

its pretty long altogether, nearly 2 hours, so there's a lot in it

- Has treated and worked with Wagner people, good guys and professional
- Doesn’t know whats behind Prigozhin’s recent turn, maybe the war changed him.
- Almost all injuries treated from mines or artillery, almost no bullet wounds of any kind
- Since going back to Moscow has received a lot of praise and gratitude from people for having the balls to go to the SMO
- Sanctions havent affected him personally other than unable to install Zoom on his phone
- Banking apps are more sophisticated in Russian than UK or Germany
- Corruption is normal in every country but has declined since the start of the SMO
- Support for the military is high, same for PMCs. There are a few percent against it but these malcontents exist in every country
- Ukrainians, Moldovans, and the Baltics are separatists and should be treated as such. Not real countries. Equivalent of Wales or Catalonia. I think same for everyone in post-soviet space but didn’t elaborate or mention specifically, and interviewer didn’t ask
- Has some level of respect for Ukrainians but they must understand they have to live within Russian borders
- Bucha was a psyop
- Hasn’t seen any torture or mistreatment only things like punching pows in the face nothing more serious. Hasn’t treated many Ukrainian POWs though, mostly Russians
- Constitution protects freedom of speech you might get a fine but thats probably it
- Nuclear strike is very unlikely because why would Russia strike their own lands
- War will be won but will probably need to draft another million
- “Loves the tsar hates laws passed by the Duma” (said a little tongue in cheek)
- Putin still thought of well, but is more of an arbiter than a dictator. There is no alternative anyway
- Everyone understands war was inevitable but why didn’t Putin do it in 2014. Too timid?
- Russia has been too soft. We know where the politicians live why do we not bomb them?

Blandly declaring that the nearly 50 million people who live in Ukraine, Moldava, or the Baltic nations must simply reconcile themselves to being reabsorbed by Russia because, uh, just because this is what they must do. Very persuasive.

Ehh, pretty sure Wales is a real country

Barely.

Blandly declaring that the nearly 50 million people who live in Ukraine, Moldava, or the Baltic nations must simply reconcile themselves to being reabsorbed by Russia because, uh, just because this is what they must do. Very persuasive.

I don't think he's particularly interested in persuasion. Its more a statement of fact as he sees it and that this would likely require force (which seems a strange tense to use as it is already requiring force). I don't know that there is anyone to persuade

Its more a statement of fact as he sees it

I understand, but there are no facts about the future, just beliefs.

For millions of people it is already a fact, and if he re-enlists for another stint he will be in the business of attempting to make it a fact for more . He is relatively explicit about this, and as a participant this is more than just beliefs

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-give-account-post-mutiny-prigozhin-meeting-pmc-wagner-not-exist/

Asked whether the Wagner Private Military Company would remain a fighting unit, Putin seemingly became agitated.

“‘Well, the PMC Wagner does not exist!’ Vladimir Putin exclaimed,” according to Kommersant.

wow

West has become a brutal caricature of himself. This is what happens when you are so committed to your liberationist philosophy that you believe that foreign invaders shld be allowed to amputate vast swathes of territory from countries they don’t believe shld be allowed to exist. https://t.co/rJ8zPKujQp

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 14, 2023

Western aid, such as it was, came after Russian occupation, and Urkraine is still not in NATO. On this subject, West is kneejerk at best, like Chomsky and lesser lights/

For millions of people it is already a fact

Living under Russian occupation

I like how for many, ending the war means Ukraine makes all the concessions.

To end the Iraq War, Iraq should have made compromises on territory.

"I am not pro-putin but my positions happen to give Russia all the advantages."

Not to defend West, but unless Russia just gives up, it seems unlikely that this will end without Ukraine ceding at least some territory, if not to Russia then perhaps to some quasi-independent statelet a la Transnistria.

they've definitely sold the war to Russians as a purely defensive one, I don't think they talk much about de-Nazification anymore.. now it's an existential battle for the Motherland

Strelkov arrested on charges of extremism. Wonder why now?

Gubarev as well and possibly Alknis, the Angry Patriots being targeted but unclear how serious

Whats the story behind whats happening right now in Makhachkala? Unintended consequence of Moscow's recent turn away from Israel? I'd assumed actual control of the region is handled similarly to Chechnya rather than directly from Moscow but hazy on that, either way no significant unrest or protest prior to this over disproportionate mobilisation or other issues over the last 18 months, though this would be something of an easier target and maybe an outlet for building tension over that too

I was mildly surprised that Makhachkala was considered a suitable destination for a flight from Tel Aviv, but checking the redwings site that is one of their normal routes

I don't know much about it other than what I read in the FT, which has had several articles. My impression was that it was a combination of people reading the tea leaves that Moscow was taking a more critical stance against Israel, and also the fact that Dagestan has been kept on a short leash (the current government leader is a military guy who was formerly in charge of "counter-terrorism" operations in the North Caucasus) with respect to expressions of popular dissatisfaction and pressure had been building up. Also apparently Dagestan is a popular transiting stop for passengers from Israel connecting to other destinations in Russia.

what i've gathered is that there's been a lot of anger on social media there about all the civilian deaths in gaza, and some telegram channels incited the anti-semitic mobs at the airport, taking advantage of the anger about gaza. one of the telegram channels responsible for the incitement is known to have had ties with russian dissident figure ilya ponomarev, but he's denied any current involvement.

Presidential elections set for March 17. Putin has confirmed he will be standing again.

Interestingly Girkin is a candidate

he's already in a pickle for calling Putin "weak" (apologies).

I've just seen that Putin is normally priced around 1/5 to win presidential elections, now he's drifting out slightly to 4/11 because of the war.

that is old odds I was reading from months ago, I think he will be about 1/5 and was previously drifting because:

It’s not that new betting sites think he can lose the next election, it’s that they reckon he might not be there to contest it.

Kinda funny he can't just say 'ok ok we actually are at war so no election' not that having one is much risk more just why trouble yourself with the charade at all.

war SMO

Girkin posted this on his Telegram channel earlier this year and is currently in pretrial detention after getting charged with "public calls for extremism" :

“For 23 years, the country was led by a lowlife who managed to ‘blow dust in the eyes’ of a significant part of the population. Now he is the last island of legitimacy and stability of the state, But the country will not be able to withstand another six years of this cowardly bum in power.”

Where were you seeing those betting odds Calzino? It never occurred to me to even look!. Though that looks to be too inconsequential a movement to be indicative of anything? Its not unfeasible to assume he runs again and wins in 2030 either

why trouble yourself with the charade at all.

While I wouldn't exactly call it an election as such, I think it does serve a purpose thats more than a charade. While its more of a validation exercise than anything else, that still serves as a purpose, especially to the passive/depoliticized majority, as an affirmation of the man rather than any specific policies or actions.

The fact the result will probably be 75-80% rather than 95%+ I think shows an intention to choreograph a certain level of plausibility

Having said that, who knows on the results, things are different than 2018 so it might not follow the same pattern - were there odds on the margin of victory?

https://smarkets.com/event/42623628/politics/europe/2025/01/01/00-00/russia/2024/04/07/12-00/2024-russian-presidential-election

https://www.gambling.com/uk/news/russian-election-betting-odds

xps

in the top link you can get 1.01 on a Putin presidential win which is like 1/100! I couldn't find anything on oddchecker though and the other link is out of date.

Today, as on Friday, the lawyers tried to get to IK-6 and IK-7 — two colonies in the Vladimir region where Alexey @navalny might be. They have just been informed simultaneously in both colonies that he is not there.

We still don't know where Alexey is.

— Кира Ярмыш (@Kira_Yarmysh) December 11, 2023

(missed this one)

Pro-Putin regional politician found dead outside his house
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/28/europe/egorov-russia-dead-outside-house/index.html

A politician from the party of Russian President Vladimir Putin has been found dead in a courtyard outside his home, local media reported Thursday, adding to the growing list of Russian elites who have died under unclear circumstances in recent months.

Vladimir Egorov, a Tobolsk City Duma Deputy from the ruling United Russia party, was reportedly 46 at the time of his death, which was reported by Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing the press service of the Investigative Committee for the Tyumen Region in Russia.

There were no “external signs of criminal death” on Egorov’s body, investigators told Kommersant. The committee “could not confirm the information about the circumstances of the deputy’s death” to Kommersant, it said, as they are “still conducting an autopsy.”

Russian state media TASS meanwhile reported on Thursday that Egorov “was found dead in Tobolsk,” also citing the regional committee. And unofficial Telegram channel Baza – which has links to Russian security services – said Egorov’s body “was discovered in the courtyard of his house on Kedrovaya Street” on Wednesday.

Kommersant and TASS reported that investigators are still establishing the causes of Egorov’s death, while the Tobolsk City Duma published an obituary on its social media page Thursday saying that Egorov died “as a result of an accident.”

some interesting things happening in bashkortostan, which just happens to be the biggest republic within russia

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/01/17/riot-police-clash-with-thousands-of-protesters-following-activist-s-sentencing-in-russia-s-republic-of-bashkortostan

I know its not directly linked but I think Bashkortostan overperformed in mobilisation, relative to other regions, which may be a contributory factor in unrest. I think fastest to achieve its targets. Will have to go check that, so take with pinch of salt

With the Ukrainian children that have been transferred into Russia, I can't really tell where they're going to be resettled, or how they're being distributed across the country. It seems plausible it could be part of a program to change the ethnic makeup of particular regions via a form of population transfer, but without knowing where they're being sent to and in what numbers, difficult to tell

Russia's horrible demographics obviously worsened by the invasion, but at the same time if figures are correct, 0.5% of Russia's current population is an abducted Ukrainian child (as of last July, could be higher now), so at some point the invasion potentially has a net positive in terms of population

nothing to do directly with the war. I have seen Russian youtubers uploading vids of the old dilapidated Soviet heating systems that are still in use that are out of operation because of freezing burst pipes and people are saying this shit is unacceptable, there is a crowd huddled around a fire chanting "We are freezing!". Roads flooding with water because of burst water pipes. Because of slashed municipal budgets and the war drain on workers there are piles of rotting rubbish are being buried in the snow rather than collected and infrastructure maintenance seems almost non-existent. I didn't catch the locations but obv not Moscow. Idk maybe it's always a bit like this in the provinces, but the war has certainly made it much worse.

Novosibirsk, will be one of them. Provincial yes, but Russia's 3rd largest city, one of the fastest growing, and 90%+ ethnically Russian. Maybe kind of an Edmonton equivalent

Thoughts on Putins margin of victory in next months election, and on Nadezhdin?

I can't tell but it feels like the Kremlin got caught in some indecision over Nadezhdin, if they pull the plug after letting him get this far (unless it was a weird way of extrapolating potential support via petition size). Putin also seems caught between the two stools of wanting a resounding margin of victory at the same time as a feeling of legitimacy (with that line creeping ever upwards). Where the right line is for that is I don't know

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/08/russian-anti-war-candidate-boris-nadezhdin-says-he-is-barred-from-election

Interesting article on the intellectual roots of Putin's Eurasian vision:

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/

Estonian PM Kaja Kallas placed on the list of wanted persons

Almost as amusing as Trump this guy: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/vladimir-putin-tucker-carlson-interview-footage-sharp-questions

Elsewhere in his interview with Zarubin, Putin said that he preferred Joe Biden to Donald Trump but was willing to work with any US president.

Zarubin asked the president who was “better for us” out of Biden, a Democrat, and Trump, a Republican.

Putin replied without hesitation: “Biden. He is a more experienced, predictable person, a politician of the old school,” but added “we will work with any US president who the American people have confidence in.”

the russian media is fawning over carlson being amazed at low grocery prices in moscow - well, yeah, when the average monthly salary is $770 and the government controls many prices, what do you expect, you idiot? but hey maybe he’ll move to russia

Navalny dead, reportedly.

Strange a prison wouldn't have bars on its hospital windows.

I’m thinking particularly of this remarkable interview where he describes what Novichok poisoning actually feels like. https://t.co/gla6V4z1Yw

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) February 16, 2024

Yep, even if he wasn’t bashed on the head today, he was murdered by the state as surely as Nemtsov via that poisoning and subsequent denial of medical services.