ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

russia had already moved to fold wagner and the rest of the private armies into the official military, thats prob the main thing that precipitated all this

Now comes the purge. I bet even some of the lower than low ranking Wagner grunts won't be safe even though they are all apparently getting absorbed into the Russian military.

tough job pretending to know things for the rand corp or whoever

― lag∞n, Sunday, 25 June 2023 bookmarkflaglink

Go on...sounds like an ok analysis given the bizarre nature of what happened. But if you have anything else?

I mean if Russia was already folding the Wagner group into its military why did yesterday happen?

Interesting, but the assertion at the end that Putin "can manage with his own forces" is highly debatable. Manage what exactly? Slowly losing in Ukraine while his country falls apart? None of this would have happened if Putin actually had things under control.

― Muad'Doob (Moodles), Sunday, 25 June 2023 bookmarkflaglink

I only dip in now and then but it seems like we are in for a prolonged stalemate. So I took that as "Putin can keep the war effort going". I don't see Russia falling apart with anyone to take over.

One thing she didn't work through is the notion that this could weaken Putin. Repercussions bit in brackets.

if you guys want to say why you think that tweets so incredible i might reply but just being like "its good" then demanding my rebuttal is not that compelling, and its not my theory that russia was folding wagner et al into the official military, last week or so russia made a new rule that all mercenaries had to register with the military which was widely seen as the first step towards said folding

The tweet is pretty good. You've gone no and not come up with anything as good as that when trying to explain yesterday's events. That's all.

the tweet is just a lil story that doesnt even make internal sense

Its moving pretty fast so I'm likely missing something! I didn't think the summary was incredible, just informative for a lay person, I was just curious about where it might be wrong and what your take on it was! I know Russia was folding Wagner into the military on July 1, but I didn't think the tweet contradicted that

xp

in such chaotic circumstances with such an impulsive headcase driving events, you won't always find that it all makes sense

Perhaps Prigozhin was just throwing a tantrum over his army being taken away from him.

Underwhelming explanation I guess, but plausible. Reckless, but after all his shit talking he might have assumed he was a dead man either way.

Definitely feeling that at the moment. So much is unclear, I still don't even know who blew up Dugina, or Nordstream

All tweets are good until proven otherwise with rigorous logic.

"Its moving pretty fast so I'm likely missing something"

Well I had to revive the thread today with that tweet presumably bcz everyone is going er, wtf (reasonably so) (except lagoon who has a perfectly worked out logic he is going to share with us last week)

in such chaotic circumstances with such an impulsive headcase driving events, you won't always find that it all makes sense

― calzino, Sunday, June 25, 2023 2:59 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

the tweet told a story that purports to make sense but does not make that much sense is what i was talking about

(except lagoon who has a perfectly worked out logic he is going to share with us last week)

― xyzzzz__, Sunday, June 25, 2023 3:05 PM (fifty-four seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

why tf is everyone accusing me of this the dumb tweet was the one doing that

which was what i was taking issue with

the claim that there was no behind-the-scenes negotiation is strong bcz unsupported and could stand development

also has she not heard of 🧵s #ffs

Three details I'm keeping an 👀:
1) how Wagner's "pro units" moved to Rostov to train mobiks instead of getting fucked in Bakhmut
2) how the "Wagner influencers" are all in Russia "crowdfunding gear"
3) how certain unit is absent in the Prigozhin vs MoD beef#JustWarlordThings

— Abraxas Spa (@AbraxasSpa) March 1, 2023

man had his eyes on Rostov in march

the whole thing is so odd, the only thing that seems sure is that a hundred guys with guys taking a road trip to moscow and then walking away scott free is not great for putin

The story needs more QAnon Shaman

US intelligence knew what Prigozhin was up to days before he actually made his move, don't know how Russian intelligence managed to miss it. If they did

well they say they did

we were completely blindsided and remain out of our depth, said US intelligence in a flustered statement

broadly some possibilities

1 weak desperate move that prigoz barely got out of alive

2 plan coordinated with sympathetic elites to weaken putin

3 solo attack via which he extracted major future concessions

3 doesnt really makes sense to me because what leverage does he have now to ensure the promises are delivered, cld see 1 or 2 tho

we'll know when his coverage improves

Prigozhin’s press office told @RTVi on Sunday afternoon that the warlord “says hi to everyone and will answer questions when he has good [cell phone] reception”.@NastyaStognei @LaurenFedor and @JudithREvans on the fallout from the failed couphttps://t.co/UEwwzqORKU

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 25, 2023

Definitely question some bits of that Stanayova tweet like the certainty of Wagner being eliminated quickly had they actually reached Moscow and engaged in battle with Russian forces routinely described as inferior to them, given also the support for Wagner in Rostov. But yeah can't otherwise explain the about turn.

i mean wagner did not have very many guys, idk how long it wouldve taken russia to get their act together to take them out but one would think they couldve done it, however did russia want to have a russian on russian battle in moscow no of course not

Probably just annoyed that her credence regarding Putin's supposed shrewdness in all this is accurate tbh

putin is def shrewd you dont get to be putin if youre not shrewd

It's overstated tho, as we can readonably surmise from... *gestures at most things*

Dude may be cunning/shrewd but let’s not go overboard saying he’s even smart. Dude got the country into an unwinnable unpopular war.

sure hes human he makes mistakes but as far as working your way up from nothing to a 25 year run as the dictator of a major country you can only tip your cap

tragic that he fucked up so bad trying to put the feather in his cap

broadly some possibilities

1 weak desperate move that prigoz barely got out of alive

2 plan coordinated with sympathetic elites to weaken putin

3 solo attack via which he extracted major future concessions

― lag∞n, Sunday, 25 June 2023 bookmarkflaglink

Logical set of possibilities. Powerful.

I’m seeing so many dumb theories on Twitter about this. It’s watching the first season of True Detective again.

i personally wouldnt get mad if someone didnt like a tweet i posted, thats their choice if they dont like a tweet

I am a logic enjoyer now. It's the truth.

you can't logic here it's the noosphere room

important statements incoming

The Kremlin said Putin will “make a series of important statements” tonight

— Pjotr Sauer (@PjotrSauer) June 26, 2023

"Success. I goaded the Pigman, drew him out of his lair, now he is in the pen, awaiting further instruction. I have folded his troops into mine, and I only have to pay them regular pay, with 0 trouble about what was 'owed' Pigman. I have also noted the generals who were so very easy to use as goads. All For Holy MotherFatherland Russia!"

xpost Finally telling us his favorite Steely Dan songs.

BREAKING: “Putin will emit a series of sounds through his talk-hole tonight”.

He's going to take credit for Havana Syndrome

Also looking for a new kremlin catering director

confirms spurs are ready to consider making an "important bid" for james maddison

BREAKING: Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko will also deliver a statement tonight, after Putin announced one as well

— BNO News (@BNONews) June 26, 2023

which one will be holding Progozhin's head?