ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Prigozhin looks like an angry cartoon character who always has steam coming out of his ears. Someone was talking earlier about when Wagner group was all over Syria and on one occasion they got threatening close to some US special forces. The Pentagon contacted Moscow over it and were told "no they aren't ours, do as you will". So the US forces attacked them, inflicting hundreds of casualties! I think it's incidents like this that have made him even more radge.

i have to say, my “will be disruptive but nothing much to see here” of <checks notes> just this morning, looks like a worse call by the minute in light of prigozhin’s thunder run to moscow.

however, he is committed to the war in ukraine, and i continue to think the impact there will be limited (no retreat by front line troops at the moment).

all that said by by far the better predictive reasoning remains *who the fuck knows* <spins wheel>

Moscow mayor urges people to stay home
The mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin has said in a statement that Moscow residents should refrain from trips around the city as far as possible given a counter-terrorism operation has been declared and said the situation was “difficult”, Reuters reports.

Sobyanin also said in the statement, released on Telegram, that Monday would be a “non-working day” in order “to minimise risks”.

I would have thought that the Russian military would have visibly confirmed their command chain by now, or at least soon. No one has seen Shoigu/Gerasimov since this began. There are rumors that their deputies are “at work” (Kim, Surovikin, etc) but no pictures or confirmation.

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) June 24, 2023

mariahcareyidontknowher.gif

“The history of mankind hasn’t yet seen the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons under control by bandits,” Medvedev said. “Such a crisis will not be limited by just one country’s borders, the world will be put on the brink of destruction.”

He added: “We won’t allow such a turn of events.”

senior generals are all issuing their statements in support of the Putin regime.

Gotta say this means less than it appears to. The officers who matter most in a coup are those more in the middle tiers, lieutenants through colonels, and their perception of the war's progress, the morale of their troops, and the competence of Putin and the top military leadership. Prigozhin is betting on their disaffection and that if he gives them a point to rally around they'll take him up on it out of disgust with those generals who are all lining up with Putin.

This song seems apt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BZAuWhWNkA

Old enough to remember that just *last year* some of London’s finest legal minds were being paid vast sums by Prigozhin to claim in England's High Court that he had *nothing* to do with Wagner.https://t.co/suRpefFDyw

— Miles Johnson (@MilesMJohnson) June 24, 2023

Lukashenko saying he's spoken to Prigozhin (on Putin's behalf) and Prigozhin has agreed to "de-escalate".

Yeah except that was from Lukashenko. Prigozhin just responded on his own saying "Yeah RIGHT."

I was aware of Wagner but I don't think I knew that their patch has a metal-as-fuck skull on it.

https://media.tenor.com/Rac0Uf_ziDwAAAAC/evil-are-we-the-baddies.gif

_senior generals are all issuing their statements in support of the Putin regime._

Gotta say this means less than it appears to. The officers who matter most in a coup are those more in the middle tiers, lieutenants through colonels, and their perception of the war's progress, the morale of their troops, and the competence of Putin and the top military leadership. Prigozhin is betting on their disaffection and that if he gives them a point to rally around they'll take him up on it out of disgust with those generals who are all lining up with Putin.

AP confirms Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin is halting his mercenaries moments after Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko said he brokered a de-escalation deal. In an audio message, Prigozhin said that he is stopping his troops to avoid “Russian bloodshed”.

The Grand Old Duke of Prigozhin.

If true I guess first thoughts would be it's Lukashenko offering aid and men to Wagner and strengthen his own position. Except it also just shows the desperation of him in addition to P and P ?

In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”

normal stuff

Prigozhin says it's over:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood…

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023

This "march of justice" sounds like the usual, peaceful Saturday afternoon march on Westminster by a left activist grouping. Wtf?

So uh ... what? This is the dumbest possible ending. Russia bombs their own bridges and then it's back to business as usual? What?

What a wild ride

Crabber B. Munson (Boring, Maryland) at 9:48 23 Jun 23

Some kayfabe for Putin to get rid of an annoyance?

This seems very odd. It seemed they were in too deep to turn back.

seems like neither side felt strong enough to push all their chips into the pot. prigozhin didn't see the sort of cascading change of allegiance that he was hoping for and putin didn't feel strong enough to crush him quickly and decisively. And putin relies heavily on his being perceived as too overwhelmingly strong to be challenged successfully. this episode weakens that image somewhat and he'll be looking for ways to reassert his image of total dominance. otoh, prigozhin has strengthened his hand somewhat, at least for now.

"Standing Down" (for?) now:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html

It’s hard for me to believe Prighozin will be allowed to continue fighting for Russia after challenging Putin like that.

Sorry, I missed the recent posts about that.

some weird political dynamic happening here

thankfully it seems (so far) that no civilians have been hurt

So I was already thinking about how Gorby was deposed, blamed for trusting the generals who then attempted a coup: a looser system then, but wondering if powers in Kremlin might do the same thing to Putin---he was said to have exterminated all opposition, but obv some of his longtime ultra-nationalist colleagues are capable of thinking outside/even deeper inside the box----

I am with lagoon. Something is missing in what we know about this.

I’d describe this as a kerfuffle

Er, so Putin caved to a putschist with an army and agreed to make the MoD more amenable to him, after the putschist showed how well he can challenge the regime. And the guy gets to live? Things are wild, weird and unpredictable in Russia but this doesn’t quite convince. https://t.co/jg9mToj0fX

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) June 24, 2023

Putin's gotta do something big now---was also already wondering about use of tactical nukes in Ukraine justified by invoking WWII: US surgical strikes vs. extended carnage of land war in Japan---sparing our boys and civilians in the long run---

But would involve riding the shitstorm of reactions etc.

what an weird bagatelle this has all been. both prigozhin and putin now know they are sitting on a time bomb. no way prigozhin gets away with this, and he will surely know that. fascinated to see whether putin goes through with shoigu and gerasimov removal/punishment. this all feels like it leaves the situation more fragile than if wagner group had got crushed (or otherwise).

Was russia not in a position to crush them before they got to moscow?

does the wagner group have aircraft?

Be interesting to see what Michael makes of it

I'm also not sure what we all just saw there over the last 24 hours. Will have a few thoughts in a bit. https://t.co/faw1qrT17R

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 24, 2023

xp yes Wagner pilots have been operating russian jets

no way prigozhin gets away with this, and he will surely know that.

― Fizzles, Saturday, June 24, 2023 2:48 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

if he knew that then why would he have agreed to pack up, does he have some reason to believe that whatever promises were made to him will be kept, where is the power center of russia right now, how far is it from prigozhin

I don’t understand why putin would agree to concessions. It really makes it look like he’s lost control of the country, which I imagine he does not like…

I feel like we are getting jerked around somehow

Putin could have got away with making concessions if he hadn't made that intemperate butthurt speech to the entire nation earlier today.

Was russia not in a position to crush them before they got to moscow?

― treeship., Saturday, 24 June 2023 18:49 bookmarkflaglink

clearly not! though they did bomb petrol/oil reserves in rostov. i guess the speed of the movement and activity was the main issue, plus the fact so many of the troops were in ukraine? at some point they have to rock up somewhere though, and cities are easier to defend. crush was the wrong word though. with WG only having an estimated ~10k troops, i guess you just need to show enough resilience and resolve to make it fizzle out. hence again the importance of generals lining up to say they're backing putin. discouragement.

i think it's probably better seen as a mutiny than a coup, but one thing very evident from this is coups always used to go for the main means of broadcast communication. these days that's changed, with prigozhin able to 'broadcast' a message very easily on media channels, though not the main state ones of course. interesting to see how channels of communication change coup/insurrection tactics like this.

I think the major actors involved in this power struggle have other things on their minds than jerking us around.

^

So Putin is *this* weak

He has no authority over the oligarchs and warlords that work under him

thats what im thinking