ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

for anyone interested i did put together some prigozhin links a while ago (ie not completely up to date) here.

eg this from March:

CHANGES AT WAGNER

In a video released on🇷🇺Telegram, Prigozhin says “after the capture of Bakhmut, Wagner Group will change and become an ‘army with an ideology.’”

The ideology is, cryptically, “to fight for justice.”

What does that mean?

If I was Shoigu, I would be concerned. pic.twitter.com/N5hgpPRcMX

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) March 10, 2023

Or this from the WSJ:

Early on, Mr. Prigozhin gained a reputation for showy stunts, once shooting at mannequins draped in American flags. He then covered them in ketchup, took photos and leaked them to Russian media outlets, said people with knowledge of the stunts.

further south than Seattle!

― anvil, Saturday, June 24, 2023 12:07 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

uh no lol

and a nice piece on the 'aesthetics and marketing of the Wagner Group' here.

apologies, i don't generally like flooding ilx with tweets (you can get those on twitter right?) but this is producing stuff that's too good not to share:

it just had to be the song from the ghanaian pallbearers meme didn't it https://t.co/XwuXxnvfpD

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023

incredible work on the Wagner Group wiki page. pic.twitter.com/KGXhv0B22V

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) June 24, 2023

is there any clear way to distinguish between the national military and the Wagner troops and tanks etc? could be a lot of "friendly" casualties when this kicks off

I *think* so? at least regular russia military watchers seem to be able to tell (it's all khaki to me), and i'd say the same for people and troops on the ground (they have after all been taking potshots). that said, i suspect a lot of it is positional ('they're shooting at *me* from over *there*?! fire!'), and war is proverbially chaos so. yeah. therre are three types of fire it seems, enemy fire, friendly fire, frenemy fire.

actually probably the best answer to anything itt is 'who the fuck knows'.

Putin evoking 1917 as a betrayal of mother Russia is pure meltdom, what a dick!

getting conflicting reports on whether russia is a motherland or fatherland

Frank Lampard caretaker Russian President https://t.co/COP7vnjTIu

— Shivam Manghnani (@shivamLM) June 24, 2023

This guy is the only one that seems to know for sure what he’s trying to do. https://t.co/7PEiVvzO7Y

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 24, 2023

to what end? i do not see it ending up well for him or Wagner Group, senior generals are all issuing their statements in support of the Putin regime.

No idea at this stage but if there was no resistance in Voronezh or Rostov and they're confident enough to move east, south, and north from there all at once suggests something pretty well planned in advance. Depends if same happens in Krasnodar and Volgograd as Rostov and Voronezh

A surreal video. Prigozhin negotiating in Rostov with MoD's deputy ninister (left) and GRU's deputy chief Alexeev. Tells them he wants to Shoigu and Gerassimov handed over, and until he gets them Wagner will occupy Rostov and march on to Moscow. pic.twitter.com/tOcFDZMek2

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) June 24, 2023

everyone writing off Prigozhin last night because he looks like he presents 'Wigan's hardest Bouncers' on Channel 5

— jamie k (@jkbloodtreasure) June 24, 2023

getting conflicting reports on whether russia is a motherland or fatherland

Maybe it identifies as genderfluid. When will this liberal woke nonsense end?

This fucking account back at it again. pic.twitter.com/Da5mLFOG7G

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) June 24, 2023

your dad when he hears the Formula One bit of The Chain pic.twitter.com/jpMBxBeNmU

— wariotifo (@wariotifo) June 24, 2023

I have a handful of friends in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, should I be concerned for their safety? I don’t know anything about politics and didn’t know anything about this Wagner Group until this morning. If it helps, they are all academics at technical schools.

I also ask because sanctions make it especially challenging to communicate (e.g., we have policies between MIT and Skoltech that can circumvent sanctions but we have strict policies about non-in-person communication).

seems unlikely that this will break out into a big civil war thats dangerous for civilians, i mean who knows where it leads but it looks like more of a coup right now, its not a very big group thats advancing toward moscow and we have footage of prigozhin negotiating with the russian military

having said that if the coup succeeds or even if it doesnt really its certainly uncertain times for russia, which was true a couple days ago too, and is more true now

That’s a relief. I should probably stop getting my news from Reddit.

the russian "news environment" is pretty interesting altogether, very post truth lol

I'm surprised at people itt not knowing anything (or much) about the Wagner Group and Prigozhin - suggests the war in Ukraine is not getting anything like the same coverage in the US/North America as over here?

yeah id think europe is prob more invested for obvious reasons, the war has gotten a lot of burn here but prob not as much, i know prigozhin but i may have been watching some sicko youtubes

shd say im not a russia expert or even enthusiast i have been following the war but i think my observations re the current sitch are pretty obvious

⚡️A man in uniform and with a machine gun orders burgers in Rostov's Tasty (most probably Wagner) pic.twitter.com/SSPO2jh4Fp

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 24, 2023

*watching putin getting overthrown by someone calling himself "The Humongous"* happy pride yall

— Helldude Classic (@allahliker) June 24, 2023

I'm surprised at people itt not knowing anything (or much) about the Wagner Group and Prigozhin - suggests the war in Ukraine is not getting anything like the same coverage in the US/North America as over here?

I've been following the war pretty carefully this whole time -- haven't said much about it, don't feel like I can add much -- but I'd heard about Wagner and Prigozhin before thanks to Syria in particular. But yeah I'd say we're talking a minority of even nominally tuned-in folks here in the US (in general, not this thread) knew anything about either of them here before yesterday.

I'd say, in the media over here, he's second only to Zelensky in the media coverage he gets, I feel like I see him ranting about something or other every other day.

Ros Atkins recap on Prigo

Putin is accusing Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin of treason. Prigozhin calls it a 'march for justice'. As the story escalates, here's a video from May about how, from the 80s to now, Prigozhin went from prison, to catering, to the Wagner group. pic.twitter.com/0yU36AFcBJ

— Ros Atkins (@BBCRosAtkins) June 24, 2023

inspiring

Prigozhin looks like an angry cartoon character who always has steam coming out of his ears. Someone was talking earlier about when Wagner group was all over Syria and on one occasion they got threatening close to some US special forces. The Pentagon contacted Moscow over it and were told "no they aren't ours, do as you will". So the US forces attacked them, inflicting hundreds of casualties! I think it's incidents like this that have made him even more radge.

i have to say, my “will be disruptive but nothing much to see here” of <checks notes> just this morning, looks like a worse call by the minute in light of prigozhin’s thunder run to moscow.

however, he is committed to the war in ukraine, and i continue to think the impact there will be limited (no retreat by front line troops at the moment).

all that said by by far the better predictive reasoning remains *who the fuck knows* <spins wheel>

Moscow mayor urges people to stay home
The mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin has said in a statement that Moscow residents should refrain from trips around the city as far as possible given a counter-terrorism operation has been declared and said the situation was “difficult”, Reuters reports.

Sobyanin also said in the statement, released on Telegram, that Monday would be a “non-working day” in order “to minimise risks”.

I would have thought that the Russian military would have visibly confirmed their command chain by now, or at least soon. No one has seen Shoigu/Gerasimov since this began. There are rumors that their deputies are “at work” (Kim, Surovikin, etc) but no pictures or confirmation.

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) June 24, 2023

mariahcareyidontknowher.gif

“The history of mankind hasn’t yet seen the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons under control by bandits,” Medvedev said. “Such a crisis will not be limited by just one country’s borders, the world will be put on the brink of destruction.”

He added: “We won’t allow such a turn of events.”

senior generals are all issuing their statements in support of the Putin regime.

Gotta say this means less than it appears to. The officers who matter most in a coup are those more in the middle tiers, lieutenants through colonels, and their perception of the war's progress, the morale of their troops, and the competence of Putin and the top military leadership. Prigozhin is betting on their disaffection and that if he gives them a point to rally around they'll take him up on it out of disgust with those generals who are all lining up with Putin.

This song seems apt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BZAuWhWNkA

Old enough to remember that just *last year* some of London’s finest legal minds were being paid vast sums by Prigozhin to claim in England's High Court that he had *nothing* to do with Wagner.https://t.co/suRpefFDyw

— Miles Johnson (@MilesMJohnson) June 24, 2023

Lukashenko saying he's spoken to Prigozhin (on Putin's behalf) and Prigozhin has agreed to "de-escalate".

Yeah except that was from Lukashenko. Prigozhin just responded on his own saying "Yeah RIGHT."

I was aware of Wagner but I don't think I knew that their patch has a metal-as-fuck skull on it.

https://media.tenor.com/Rac0Uf_ziDwAAAAC/evil-are-we-the-baddies.gif

_senior generals are all issuing their statements in support of the Putin regime._

Gotta say this means less than it appears to. The officers who matter most in a coup are those more in the middle tiers, lieutenants through colonels, and their perception of the war's progress, the morale of their troops, and the competence of Putin and the top military leadership. Prigozhin is betting on their disaffection and that if he gives them a point to rally around they'll take him up on it out of disgust with those generals who are all lining up with Putin.

AP confirms Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin is halting his mercenaries moments after Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko said he brokered a de-escalation deal. In an audio message, Prigozhin said that he is stopping his troops to avoid “Russian bloodshed”.

The Grand Old Duke of Prigozhin.

If true I guess first thoughts would be it's Lukashenko offering aid and men to Wagner and strengthen his own position. Except it also just shows the desperation of him in addition to P and P ?

In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”

normal stuff