Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

the sucky part is he's exploiting a system that benefits people like him--not just white guys, but white guys in his line of work in NYC

I‘be settled on the opinion that that election was close but not nearly as close as cable news wanted us to think it was

― castanuts (DJP), Wednesday, April 5, 2023 8:32 AM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

45k votes across three states

re the strength of the case

The books and records counts laid out in the charging papers against Mr. Trump are the bread and butter of the D.A.’s office. Mr. Trump, who pleaded not guilty to all charges on Tuesday, is the 30th defendant to be indicted on false records charges by Mr. Bragg since he took office just over a year ago, with the D.A. bringing 151 counts under the statute so far. Indeed, the Trump Organization conviction and the Weisselberg plea included business falsification felonies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/04/opinion/donald-trump-alvin-bragg-indictment-charges.html

ha! from a lawyer standpoint (I'm not a lawyer) i'd def take the word of a former prosecuting attorney over a business lawyer--kind of wild to me that the Ian Twitter guy and Elie Mystal are pessimistic about it. Also Ken White/Popehat's blog said the opposite that the nyt article does--"we still have no idea what the heart of this case is."

also a good reminder that just because someone is writing as a lawyer, doesn't mean they know what they're talking about

45k votes across three states

Thanks Electoral College. Whatta system.

I’m of the opinion that he should be arrested, charged and tried as often as possible, for every crime he has committed where there is enough evidence to build a case. Forget about whether he may or may not be found guilty. Was there a crime? Is there a case? Charge him. Just keep him in the criminal court system for as much time as possible, where he is unable to control the messaging, is not on his own schedule, and is not in charge of the situation. Get those photos out there in the news where he looks resigned and sulky and guilty as f*ck. That’s what people will see. Nobody new will tune into his press conferences and get riled up on his behalf. But people will see the photos and read the headlines and know that this is a fallen human being with no political future, with always another criminal indictment looming on the horizon. The more criminal cases and trial appearances he has to focus on and worry about, the less time he has to strategize and campaign and do the things he wants to do. As the indictments pile up, eventually he will look like nothing more than a rat in a trap, not a viable candidate for public office. Keep it coming.

^ how I break it down to an extent

otm. plus fatigue is a thing. Trump will always have a brainwashed herd that show up to sweat blood and tears for him, but lots of protesters are going to get tired of showing up to protest on the second, third, fourth indictments, much less keep up with them. many are spooked by January 6th arrests (as they should be). they're already talking themselves out of showing up due to their own conspiracy theories.

this one's getting all the buzz among his followers because it's the first one, but the novelty wears off, even they'll get bored.

yes I don't understand how anyone who isn't MAGA and lived through the last seven year could wring their hands and go, "Hells bells! I wish we could find stronger charges!" It's so like a (white) liberal to not embrace a victory, however fleeting.

if it were really a weak case that just fell apart that would be not great imo, but it doesnt seem like its that, so i mean get his ass

and i seriously doubt that any prosecutor is going to try to get him on some weak shit anyway prob not worth worrying about

but lots of protesters are going to get tired of showing up to protest on the second, third, fourth indictments

they didn't even show up to this one!

epistantophus very OTM, I know people are still pretending that political gravity doesn't exist since Trump won, but the last 6 years sure seem to suggest otherwise. this particular case might not sway much but when he's charged with trying to overturn the election in Georgia/stealing classified docs (and ignoring the subpoena, as we just found out yesterday!)/inciting an insurrection you can be damn sure that he's not gonna be talked about like an "outsider" or a "businessman" like he was in 2016 but rather as a criminal. even garbage outlets like the New York Times and CNN are referring to him that way now. he'll probably still win the nomination but I just don't think he has any chance in the general

I think, per epistantophus's point, we're already missing how badly he lost yesterday morning around when he was heading over to court when the DC Circuit said 'lol no' to his attempt to stop a slew of various WH aides etc from testifying to the J6 grand jury. To give you an idea of how that played out, Ken Cuccinelli *already* went in yesterday afternoon to answer questions as a result -- Trump didn't even try to appeal to the Supreme Court, and two to one we're going to hear about a lot more people going on (not to mention members of his own Secret Service detail in the documents case on Friday, and then there's Good Ol' Mike Pence, etc.). I read all his (lack of) energy yesterday and playing the hits at a briefer speech last night -- along with his returning to venting spleen about defunding the DOJ and FBI via social media -- as adding to all that.

to frogbs' point:

The counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington — collectively known as the WOW counties — have been the centerpiece of any Republican victory in Wisconsin for decades.

But they brought mostly bad news for Republicans on Tuesday.

The counties, which surround Milwaukee, have been emblematic of the shift in the state during the Trump era. They collectively have not voted for a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson, but have gradually trended more Democratic over the last decade.

On Tuesday, former state Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly was still on track to win all three of those crucial counties. But the margins continue to shrink for Republicans there — a bright red, flashing warning side for the GOP ahead of the 2024 elections.

Notably, Protasiewicz came dangerously close to outright winning in Ozaukee County, trailing Kelly by roughly five points in a county that Mitt Romney won by roughly 30 points a decade ago.

And perhaps even more concerning for Republicans: A special election for a red-leaning state Senate seat in the WOW counties on Tuesday is a nailbiter. Should Jodi Habush Sinykin, the Democratic candidate, eventually pull off the win, it would flip the seat for Democrats — and prevent Republicans from picking up a supermajority in the state Senate.

Tuesday’s election brought even more good news for Democrats elsewhere in the state.

Dane County, which is home to Madison, is one of the fastest growing regions. The area saw incredibly high turnout on Tuesday for a spring off-year election — and Protasiewicz won the county by a lopsided margin. The area is quickly turning into Democrats’ mini blue wall in the state.

AFAIC, him dragging out his base for as long as possible and his various wannabe rivals and regional bootlickers all trying to pretend he's worthy of defense is absolutely worth it at this point. Lots of wasted time, energy, money (seriously, at a certain point that's going to turn into no more than a steady tap flow at best, and likely not even that) and that's fine with me.

To give you an idea of how that played out, Ken Cuccinelli *already* went in yesterday afternoon to answer questions as a result -- Trump didn't even try to appeal to the Supreme Court

wow, I totally missed this. that's huge

also can I point out that Janet Protasiewicz won by over 11 points here yesterday in the swing state of Wisconsin and from what I can gather a lot of that had to do with the fact that if Kelly won the state would be turbofucked into permanent Republican control. that sort of thing really does seem to turn voters off (or at least drive up turnout on the other side) so I can only imagine what having Trump on the ballot again would do.

xpost It is! And it went under the radar precisely because of the spectacle, but don't ignore it in the slightest.

The size of Protasiewicz's victory astounded me, actually.

Notably, Protasiewicz came dangerously close to outright winning in Ozaukee County

that's where my Mom used to live and it's about as Trumpy an area as I've seen here, seems like really bad news for them

in lieu of a trial, Trump is going to request a Wild West duel at 10 paces, and will realize at the 8th pace that he has no idea how to shoot a gun.

it would astound me if any of you could spell her name from memory.

I can after two Negronis.

along with his returning to venting spleen about defunding the DOJ and FBI via social media

can't imagine this kind of thing is gonna help him either, Trump has always been the kind of person willing to burn the whole system down to save his own skin which I think will not play well in a general election

xpost that would be a good sobriety test.

we're already missing how badly he lost yesterday morning around when he was heading over to court when the DC Circuit said 'lol no' to his attempt to stop a slew of various WH aides etc from testifying to the J6 grand jury. To give you an idea of how that played out, Ken Cuccinelli *already* went in yesterday afternoon to answer questions as a result -- Trump didn't even try to appeal to the Supreme Court

― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, April 5, 2023 10:42 AM (thirteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

wonder if he just forgot

"there was *something* I was supposed to do today, I tied a string around my finger"

My tiny finger

he did not look good in those court pics

i mean he never looks good but

if he keeps frowning like that his face will freeze that way.

In re those advisors having to testify, this story notes what some had been asked about already earlier in the year, plus:

Cuccinelli was spotted going back into the grand jury on Tuesday, April 4.

Without that privilege shield, former officials must answer questions about their interactions and conversations with the former president, including what he was told about the lack of evidence for election fraud and the legal remedies he could pursue.

That line of questioning goes to the heart of Smith’s challenge in any criminal case he might bring – to prove that Trump and his allies pursued their efforts despite knowing their fraud claims were false or their gambits weren’t lawful. To bring any potential criminal charges, prosecutors would have to overcome Trump’s public claim that he believed then and now that fraud really did cost him the election.

“There’s lots of ways you can show that. But certainly one of them is if they were told by people who knew what they were talking about, that that there was no basis to take the actions,” said Adav Noti, an election law attorney who previously served in the US Attorney’s Office in Washington, DC, and at the Federal Election Commission’s general counsel’s office.

“I would not want to be a defense lawyer trying to argue, ‘Well, yes, my client was told that, but he never really believed it,’” Noti said.

I know people are still pretending that political gravity doesn't exist since Trump won, but the last 6 years sure seem to suggest otherwise.

people are still astounded that he won in 2016 and that has left them believing the up is down and left is right and this fuckin hateable asshat could one day cause an upset like that again, even though he's been box office poison at the ballot box since the very moment he won.

I have no way to assess the likelihood of conviction here, but I don't think there's a universe where "Well, those hush payments to the porn star didn't actually break any laws" is a good headline for him. Of course if he's acquitted Trump will declare massive victory etc, but I think the primary effect of all of this for anyone except true Trump believers is exhaustion with the whole idea and persona of Trump.

I just remember Trump's presidency, where "payoffs to a porn star" was a non-needle moving event that quickly got swept into the whole Trump-gets-away-with-everything narrative and normalized.

lets roll lol

Trump just called for — wait for it — defunding federal police.

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) April 5, 2023

HE ADMIT IT

"The only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it," the 76-year-old told supporters

I remember when Hillary Clinton was asked at a debate whether she had any faults, and it was something like "I guess my main fault is just caring too much"

I just remember Trump's presidency, where "payoffs to a porn star" was a non-needle moving event that quickly got swept into the whole Trump-gets-away-with-everything narrative and normalized.

Hard to say, really. The guy didn't get re-elected. I don't think the Stormy Daniels story was a big part of that, but I don't think it's entirely negligible. If you think about those precious purple suburbs where Trump underperformed, I think the general miasma of ickiness about him was a factor. So to the degree that all of this keeps that miasma front and center, I don't think it does him any favors regardless of the verdict.

it's a lot easier to wriggle out of jams when you're President! many legal scholars believe you *can't* indict a President, plus you have all of the various wings of government at your disposal to use as he did.

and while Biden's approval ratings currently suck, he was above 50% significantly longer than Trump ever was. Trump eventually settled into a 40-45% floor after the tax code changes passed, but before that dude was cratering in his first year (was once 16% underwater in a Rasmussen poll).

his devoted followers believe he can do no wrong, but they're not who lifted him into the White House. Independent voters, disillusioned (read: DUMB) Democrats etc pushed him across the finish line, and a significant number of them said things like "He's just saying <thing> to get elected, he won't be all that bad" or "His power will really be limited and he'll be more middle of the road", and many of those people began having buyer's remorse on Day 1, others came around to it later.

Independents *are* the type that could easily break away from Biden because they tend to be the wishy washy type, but the thing about Trump in 2016 vs now is people were voting for a potential outcome in 2016, and now they have 4 hours of empirical evidence, and unlike 2020, he's not an incumbent anymore.

that said, I don't see Trump getting blown out even in "Obama-McCain" or "Obama-Romney" fashion. he'll probably clear 200 EVs easily just like last time.

At this point if the Republican nominee were an inanimate carbon rod it would clear 200 EV easily, as long as it promised to "take back our nation" and defeat the evil schemes of the socialist traitors.

Inanimate Carbon Rod is my new porn name.

“I would not want to be a defense lawyer trying to argue, ‘Well, yes, my client was told that, but he never really believed it,’” Noti said.

it would be particularly satisfying to see him get nailed down on this, because central to Trump's whole persona is that he doesn't really believe in anything besides his own greatness and I think that is part of what made him essentially bulletproof. so many Republicans defended him by saying "well, I don't know about the truthfulness of it, but it is clearly a valid feeling that he shares with many Republicans" which is such a bullshit argument and one I don't think any other politician could really get away with.

I daresay carbon rod would outpoll Pence rn

I think it’s also worth noting that his personality is such that, the more legal trouble he’s in, the less he can stop himself from digging himself a deeper hole. Case in point, the judge told him specifically not to make any statements that might jeopardize the rule of law or cause civil unrest (as he has a well-documented history of doing!), and he immediately went on the offensive against the judge and the prosecutor that same day. He can’t help himself- it’s what he thinks he needs to do in order to “win” and look strong- even when he is under a legal microscope. The more legal jeopardy he is in, the more opportunity he has to slip up, say the wrong thing, go off script, etc., so I say let’s give him every opportunity to make things worse for himself.

^^^ the Alex Jones Effect

Contempt of court seems like a good bet, if only because Trump truly holds the court system in contempt.

Ah, Day Two of every relationship between Trump and a new lawyer, when Trump still pretends to be a good client and the same Trump-whisperers pretend he writes the polite statements. https://t.co/SH0tIQ5HqX

— emptywheel (@emptywheel) April 5, 2023

"sooo" is a nice touch