There is a zero perfect chance Silicon Valley Bank fails, despite the current bank run.There is no world where the US Gov let’s a top 20 bank fail to honor deposits.— Nick Huber (@sweatystartup) March 9, 2023
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 20:44 (one year ago) link
good and sober piece on how SVB implosion happened (and why it was self-inflicted since the Fed has been telegraphing it’s moves for a long time…)https://t.co/145RjXPbJa— rat king 🐀 (@MikeIsaac) March 10, 2023
that tweet aged well xp
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 20:56 (one year ago) link
matt levine seems to think theres a good chance another bank will buy it and make its customers whole since it still does have a lot of assets theyre just in illiquid bonds
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:10 (one year ago) link
and the government is hard at work
I’m working with my CA colleagues to address the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. We must make sure all deposits exceeding the FDIC $250k limit are honored. Banking is about confidence. If depositors lose confidence on the safety of their deposits over 250k then we are in trouble.— Rep. Eric Swalwell (@RepSwalwell) March 10, 2023
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:11 (one year ago) link
heres the levine piece https://archive.ph/pe8MY
thank you sir, looking out for the wealthiest underinsured people, and making sure they get more free insurance.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 21:23 (one year ago) link
pic.twitter.com/YW1XEPEzVv— Sam Biddle (@samfbiddle) March 10, 2023
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:25 (one year ago) link
the bonds are actually very liquid since they're treasuries xp
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:26 (one year ago) link
i mean you cant pay them out to the people lining up to get their money
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:31 (one year ago) link
if i had my emergency fund in one of those weird little fintech startup banks people use for an extra $35.17 a year in interest i’d be moving it to marcus right about now, even if it was FDIC insured.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 21:33 (one year ago) link
Yeah those things seem super sketchy
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:36 (one year ago) link
they could sell it all the treasuries at once, but it would just mean that people wouldn't get all their money since i'm presuming they own less in bonds than they have obligations to their depositors/creditors... aka they're insolvent xp
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:38 (one year ago) link
xp i have some cash in betterment earning 4%, i am OK with reaping the whirlwind for now. i dunno if i'd move it to marcus per se since goldman lost something like $2b on their retail banking division last year and the future is uncertain. (not saying that you'd lose your money, just that i dunno goldman might sell marcus or something and you might end up banking with like regional bank of the ozarks?) ally bank might be a better destination with less headache long term.
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:41 (one year ago) link
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/27/why-goldmans-marcus-project-failed-and-what-it-means-for-ceo-solomon.html
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 21:42 (one year ago) link
i would worry about goldman selling marcus if it happened. right now they seem like the best best for an emergency fund that pays meaningful interest.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 21:44 (one year ago) link
bit worried we're going to find out on monday that ADP or one of the other major payroll providers was with SVB.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 21:46 (one year ago) link
seriously doubt that for ADP
― official representative of Roku's Basketshit in at least one alternate u (lukas), Friday, 10 March 2023 21:47 (one year ago) link
I don’t know why everyone doesn’t bank with a credit union, seems like a no-brainer
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Friday, 10 March 2023 21:58 (one year ago) link
I mean I suppose startups probably can’t, but human beings.
xxp at least one payroll provider lost the money they had custody of yesterday
Effective immediately & going forward, Rippling payroll runs will process through JPMC. However, pay runs in flight for today out of SVB have not been paid. The latest we heard from SVB this morning was that this was an operational delay and funds will be released.— Parker Conrad (@parkerconrad) March 10, 2023
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 22:01 (one year ago) link
My post to our employees. This is dumpster fire. From regulators to SV investors doing nothing to bailout their companies from breaching contracts. pic.twitter.com/ye8W8AkNaq— Alex Meshkin, GED (@alexmeshkin) March 10, 2023
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 22:02 (one year ago) link
via read max https://maxread.substack.com/p/what-happened-with-silicon-valley
― 龜, Friday, March 10, 2023 4:38 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
sure they could sell them and they may have already but theyre worth more when held to maturity which is why even tho they have been declared insolvent by the fdic they might be seen as worthy of being bought by some other bank, this is obvs all speculation they might just have nothing be committing fraud or whatever, or maybe they were in a survivable position but got taken out by a bank run
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:05 (one year ago) link
doe
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:07 (one year ago) link
they could sell it all the treasuries at once, but it would just mean that people wouldn't get all their money since i'm presuming they own less in bonds than they have obligations to their depositors/creditors... aka they're insolvent xp― 龜, Friday, March 10, 2023 4:38 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglinksure they could sell them and they may have already but theyre worth more when held to maturity which is why even tho they have been declared insolvent by the fdic they might be seen as worthy of being bought by some other bank, this is obvs all speculation they might just have nothing be committing fraud or whatever, or maybe they were in a survivable position but got taken out by a bank run
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:15 (one year ago) link
yea related info from this piece https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-demise-of-silicon-valley-bank
When banks purchase securities, they are forced to decide up-front whether they intend to hold them to maturity. The decision dictates whether the securities are designated as “held-to-maturity” (HTM) assets or as “available-for-sale” (AFS) assets. HTM assets are not marked to market: Banks can look on nonchalantly as bonds lose value; they remain glued to balance sheets at amortised cost regardless. By contrast, AFS assets are marked-to-market—a purer designation but one that injects an element of volatility into a bank’s capital base. For smaller banks, regulators look through this volatility but for banks with over $700 billion in assets, that volatility directly impacts regulatory capital.
Initially, banks favoured the flexibility that AFS gave them. If conditions changed and they wanted to sell, they could do so without much fuss. Sell even a single bond out of an HTM portfolio, however, and the entire portfolio would need to be re-marked accordingly. Through 2020, around three quarters of banks’ securities portfolios were held as AFS.
But then interest rate expectations started to shift and bond prices began to slide. Having been sitting on mark-to-market gains on their securities portfolios, banks started to see losses emerge. Unrealised gains of $39 billion across banks’ AFS portfolios at the end of 2020 swung to unrealised losses of $31 billion by the end of 2021.
To staunch the bleed, many banks reclassified AFS securities as HTM. This meant recognising losses upfront, but the switch would protect balance sheets from further losses as bond prices continued to fall. The largest bank, JPMorgan transferred $342 billion of securities from AFS to HTM, taking its weighting of AFS down to 30%. Others followed suit: Across the industry, the weighting of banks’ securities held as AFS shrank from three-quarters to just over half by the end of 2022.
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:19 (one year ago) link
i'm with ally. recommended.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 22:22 (one year ago) link
ok this is serious now tv is at stake
From an 8-K just filed: Roku has more than a quarter of its cash at SVB. Roku "does not know to what extent the Company will be able to recover its cash on deposit at SVB."https://t.co/mvvW4GEpX1— Stephen Nellis (@StephenNellis) March 10, 2023
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:27 (one year ago) link
i’m doing the jack nicholson hand rubbing gif right now
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:31 (one year ago) link
A few friends absolutely roasted today. Terrible.
― Allen (etaeoe), Friday, 10 March 2023 22:32 (one year ago) link
fwiw as someone very unqualified to speak on this the payroll stuff seems like it’ll resolve itself whenever svb gets un-ddos’d, if they are just acting as a conduit between company’s bank and employee banks for ripple - there is money coming in the door that can’t be touched other than for being sent out the door to employee accounts, but right now the switchboard is fully lit up so they gotta wait.the companies that are funding payroll through accounts held at svb, however…
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:34 (one year ago) link
i think one problem is that banking infrastructure in the us is literally all in COBOL, perhaps the us government could hire elon to help with a full rewrite?
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:36 (one year ago) link
cobol is nice its just doing its thing
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:41 (one year ago) link
doubt anyones really gonna lose big money on this mb a lil haircut, tho the disruption could be bad for some businesses
379 8-Ks filed today, most declaring exposure to SVB
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&CIK=&type=8-K&owner=include&count=100&action=getcurrent
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 22:48 (one year ago) link
the amount of life sciences and tech companies in that list is pretty lolhere is the money 8-k, plucked from the middle of the list https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000719739/000119312523067777/d450664d8k.htm
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 22:55 (one year ago) link
presumably because biotech companies go public earlier (so file 8-Ks) rather than anything to do with SVB's customers being mostly biotech?
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 23:02 (one year ago) link
it’s because a lot of biotech companies banked with svb. nothing to do with timing of their IPOs
― 龜, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:04 (one year ago) link
ok but the timing of their IPOs is relevant because if it hadn't happened yet then they wouldn't need to file an 8-K. that's not a list of SVB customers. it's a list of public SVB customers.
why did so many (public) biotechs in particular bank with SVB?
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 10 March 2023 23:09 (one year ago) link
I vaguely remember some conspiracy theory stuff about SVB - like, if you're in the know, you know what that means...
George Soros written all over it
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:10 (one year ago) link
damn that guys everywhere
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:21 (one year ago) link
george if youre reading this please send me a check i will do whatever woke activities you require
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:22 (one year ago) link
kind of a wild situation, doesnt seem ideal
Practically all the founders I know have frozen accounts right now.Don’t think we ever fully appreciated how integral SVB is to the startup ecosystem.— Ed Elson (@edels0n) March 10, 2023
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:27 (one year ago) link
Just got an email from Wrapbook, the entertainment payroll service, saying their accounts were with SVB. So, yeah, I think this scenario is more than likely.— Henry Baker (@econobaker) March 10, 2023
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:28 (one year ago) link
another payroll company
We (Rippling) discovered yesterday that Silicon Valley Bank had unexpected solvency challenges. Just now, we learned that the FDIC had stepped in and effectively shut down SVB.— Parker Conrad (@parkerconrad) March 10, 2023
― lag∞n, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:39 (one year ago) link
"But if you need a few bucks to tide you over, send your paypal address and we'll see what we can muster up.."
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 10 March 2023 23:42 (one year ago) link
My random clicking on the 8-K list only turned up companies with 0-5% of their cash with SVB
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Friday, 10 March 2023 23:56 (one year ago) link
Someone link a “we’re fucked” one
too many. Go to make it a drinking game. "I bet Kintara Therapeutics, Inc. has more than 0.5% of their cash in SVB" "I bet more than 2%" "Liar!"
― Cinta Kaz is comin' to town (Sufjan Grafton), Saturday, 11 March 2023 00:03 (one year ago) link