what the fuck is happening in Russia?

One up-and-coming Ukrainian journalist tweeted in all seriousness that Russians, unlike Ukrainians, “just don’t have a history of revolutions” (I’m not linking to her tweet, because that would be unkind).

lol

Ha, that could either be deep sarcasm or maybe an implicit "at least not GOOD ones."

I don't think anyone believes that Russians are not overthrowing their government because the population is egoistic and doesn't feel that strongly about the war in Ukraine or their own woes. Unless you know nothing of the world and where unhappy populations are controlled and repressed.

― Nabozo, Friday, 27 January 2023 bookmarkflaglink

Part of it is responding to discourse on twitter where sadly people do go off.

nazism in ukraine

Watched two of the BBC's Putin vs The West three part doc.

There's a lot of predictable hypocritical shit from those you'd expect (the UK PMs and associated high-ups especially). Talk of Russians bombing hospitals in Aleppo and then going back to hit them again (no suggestion of this being anything other than calculated)...no mention of Western Allies also hitting hospitals (if only via misdirection or incompetence) which was documented at the time.

Maybe the only worthwhile bits are when people, albeit with obvious bias, are quoting Putin and the contrast between those quotes demonstrating his blinkered ideological rhetoric and the predictable framing elsewhere in the doc of Putin as master poker player. Particularly in this case the late night bickering between Cameron and Putin that ensued after negotiations broke down with Cameron claiming he brought up LGBT rights ahead of Sochi 2014 only for Putin to actually trot out the 'if I give those rights we will have even fewer babies' as a defence.

All the footage of Putin (and Medvedev) hanging out in London, France, meeting Biden and Obama etc. only 8-10 years ago does look like from some distant parallel reality now.

This St.Petersburg cafe explosion thing seems fishy.

whatever the russian media reports will be what the russian government (aka Putin) thinks will gain him the most pro-war propaganda value. beyond that it's anyone's guess.

dunno what could be fishy about a propagandist blogger killed by an exploding trophy at a cafe owned by a mercenary warlord engaged in a power struggle with the ministry of defense

The only thing fishy is that the blogger dude didn't fall out a window while having a cigarette

This makes me think it was an explosive rigged Billy Bass trophy that took this guy out.

Film from Putin's latest cabinet meeting...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psTfieh911M

5 1/4" Male Baseball Explosion Trophy Hand Painted Resin These Hand Painted resin trophies feature an Exploding Design that Explodes Right Out at You!

https://rumble.com/v2g4xfw-aussie-cossack-appeals-to-wagner-group-boss-evgeniy-prigozhin.html

Simeon Boikov with a list of suggestions of Australians and New Zealanders to Prigozhin to capture for a potential prisoner exchange between Russia and Australia

Probably more for the sovereign citizen thread, I'm not sure Prigozhin has time for this cat at the moment

Pretty interesting article on the relationship between Putin and the Russian vodka industry, including a history of just why vodka is so important to the Russian treasury:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/05/vladimir-putin-vodka-empire-00095109

Yeah read that yesterday — fascinating deep dive.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/22/senior-russian-official-dies-after-privately-bemoaning-fascist-invasion-a81223

Dodik back in Moscow again, not a good sign

OK Roman Super is a great real name.

Some interesting stuff on his Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/romasuper/posts/pfbid02acSu1nMWXWsxMFci4Q1aFKhrdR7GH1i18JENxLQtsMVHER96raJ9Fu5T1sziqrR5l

So, uh...

Following news that the FSB has charged Prigozhin with inciting an armed rebellion, he’s suddenly gone silent on Telegram...

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) June 23, 2023

Last seen hanging from a window ledge by his fingertips while black-suited men stamp on his hands

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acl_k4Xav_A

Interesting interview with Russian volunteer medic who was on the Kharkiv front. The interviewer struggling a little bit but does a good job, though the guy is a touch unnerving

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QGaKhiOCTo

Part II

A little less intense but might just be that I got used to his weird laughing at stuff. Thought the interviewer did a good job in keeping himself to a minimum

its pretty long altogether, nearly 2 hours, so there's a lot in it

- Has treated and worked with Wagner people, good guys and professional
- Doesn’t know whats behind Prigozhin’s recent turn, maybe the war changed him.
- Almost all injuries treated from mines or artillery, almost no bullet wounds of any kind
- Since going back to Moscow has received a lot of praise and gratitude from people for having the balls to go to the SMO
- Sanctions havent affected him personally other than unable to install Zoom on his phone
- Banking apps are more sophisticated in Russian than UK or Germany
- Corruption is normal in every country but has declined since the start of the SMO
- Support for the military is high, same for PMCs. There are a few percent against it but these malcontents exist in every country
- Ukrainians, Moldovans, and the Baltics are separatists and should be treated as such. Not real countries. Equivalent of Wales or Catalonia. I think same for everyone in post-soviet space but didn’t elaborate or mention specifically, and interviewer didn’t ask
- Has some level of respect for Ukrainians but they must understand they have to live within Russian borders
- Bucha was a psyop
- Hasn’t seen any torture or mistreatment only things like punching pows in the face nothing more serious. Hasn’t treated many Ukrainian POWs though, mostly Russians
- Constitution protects freedom of speech you might get a fine but thats probably it
- Nuclear strike is very unlikely because why would Russia strike their own lands
- War will be won but will probably need to draft another million
- “Loves the tsar hates laws passed by the Duma” (said a little tongue in cheek)
- Putin still thought of well, but is more of an arbiter than a dictator. There is no alternative anyway
- Everyone understands war was inevitable but why didn’t Putin do it in 2014. Too timid?
- Russia has been too soft. We know where the politicians live why do we not bomb them?

Blandly declaring that the nearly 50 million people who live in Ukraine, Moldava, or the Baltic nations must simply reconcile themselves to being reabsorbed by Russia because, uh, just because this is what they must do. Very persuasive.

Ehh, pretty sure Wales is a real country

Barely.

Blandly declaring that the nearly 50 million people who live in Ukraine, Moldava, or the Baltic nations must simply reconcile themselves to being reabsorbed by Russia because, uh, just because this is what they must do. Very persuasive.

I don't think he's particularly interested in persuasion. Its more a statement of fact as he sees it and that this would likely require force (which seems a strange tense to use as it is already requiring force). I don't know that there is anyone to persuade

Its more a statement of fact as he sees it

I understand, but there are no facts about the future, just beliefs.

For millions of people it is already a fact, and if he re-enlists for another stint he will be in the business of attempting to make it a fact for more . He is relatively explicit about this, and as a participant this is more than just beliefs

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-give-account-post-mutiny-prigozhin-meeting-pmc-wagner-not-exist/

Asked whether the Wagner Private Military Company would remain a fighting unit, Putin seemingly became agitated.

“‘Well, the PMC Wagner does not exist!’ Vladimir Putin exclaimed,” according to Kommersant.

wow

West has become a brutal caricature of himself. This is what happens when you are so committed to your liberationist philosophy that you believe that foreign invaders shld be allowed to amputate vast swathes of territory from countries they don’t believe shld be allowed to exist. https://t.co/rJ8zPKujQp

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 14, 2023

Western aid, such as it was, came after Russian occupation, and Urkraine is still not in NATO. On this subject, West is kneejerk at best, like Chomsky and lesser lights/

For millions of people it is already a fact

Living under Russian occupation

I like how for many, ending the war means Ukraine makes all the concessions.

To end the Iraq War, Iraq should have made compromises on territory.

"I am not pro-putin but my positions happen to give Russia all the advantages."

Not to defend West, but unless Russia just gives up, it seems unlikely that this will end without Ukraine ceding at least some territory, if not to Russia then perhaps to some quasi-independent statelet a la Transnistria.

they've definitely sold the war to Russians as a purely defensive one, I don't think they talk much about de-Nazification anymore.. now it's an existential battle for the Motherland

Strelkov arrested on charges of extremism. Wonder why now?

Gubarev as well and possibly Alknis, the Angry Patriots being targeted but unclear how serious

Whats the story behind whats happening right now in Makhachkala? Unintended consequence of Moscow's recent turn away from Israel? I'd assumed actual control of the region is handled similarly to Chechnya rather than directly from Moscow but hazy on that, either way no significant unrest or protest prior to this over disproportionate mobilisation or other issues over the last 18 months, though this would be something of an easier target and maybe an outlet for building tension over that too

I was mildly surprised that Makhachkala was considered a suitable destination for a flight from Tel Aviv, but checking the redwings site that is one of their normal routes

I don't know much about it other than what I read in the FT, which has had several articles. My impression was that it was a combination of people reading the tea leaves that Moscow was taking a more critical stance against Israel, and also the fact that Dagestan has been kept on a short leash (the current government leader is a military guy who was formerly in charge of "counter-terrorism" operations in the North Caucasus) with respect to expressions of popular dissatisfaction and pressure had been building up. Also apparently Dagestan is a popular transiting stop for passengers from Israel connecting to other destinations in Russia.

what i've gathered is that there's been a lot of anger on social media there about all the civilian deaths in gaza, and some telegram channels incited the anti-semitic mobs at the airport, taking advantage of the anger about gaza. one of the telegram channels responsible for the incitement is known to have had ties with russian dissident figure ilya ponomarev, but he's denied any current involvement.

Presidential elections set for March 17. Putin has confirmed he will be standing again.

Interestingly Girkin is a candidate

he's already in a pickle for calling Putin "weak" (apologies).

I've just seen that Putin is normally priced around 1/5 to win presidential elections, now he's drifting out slightly to 4/11 because of the war.

that is old odds I was reading from months ago, I think he will be about 1/5 and was previously drifting because:

It’s not that new betting sites think he can lose the next election, it’s that they reckon he might not be there to contest it.