U.S. Politics, November 2022: “I don’t know, you hear the same things I do”

New House math:

Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2022

put another way

If we take these trends seriously, then the Dem path looks something like this:
Hold the 214 where they're ahead
Flip CA13/AZ6
Flip CA22, which takes no stretch of the imaginable
Flip... something else: luck in OR5/NY22? surge in long-shot CA27/CA45? maybe CA41 reverses?

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 12, 2022

OR5 is my district. It doesn't look possible to flip atm. We gave about $400 to the Dem candidate, first to knock off fucking Kurt Schrader in the primary, then for the general. Then the national GOP apparatus came in and spent a few million on attack ads, the contents of which were the usual cartoonish nightmare fuel for low-info voters, painting the Dem candidate as a monster - over and over and over again. They do this because it works. :(

OR5 looks unlikely but not out of the question

Outside of California, things are a little better for the GOP. In general, late mail in white CDs has been going well for them.
But Dems could flip AZ6, and... could really use OR5 somehow, too pic.twitter.com/qvOpBN1jpr

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 12, 2022

(one potential upside of gerrymandering: voters want to defeat the odds / or do the actual counts make that impossible? but how could anyone allow that?)

Which CA districts are potentially vulnerable in 2024?

same as 2022?

are you fucking kidding me? getting email opens by making it look like a friend is about to k*ll themselves??? pic.twitter.com/jKxMnojRAQ

— mr. pussy (@nuns_on_film) November 12, 2022

There was one I got from the Bernie presidential campaign in 2020 that had the subject line “salivating”.

BernieFans

xxp Yeah, that's getting awfully close to an actual abuse tactic

Meanwhile, a small clutch -- like, per the thread, only 100 -- of protestors today outside of the Maricopa vote count. (That number alone shows the difference between two years ago and now, especially on a weekend.) Anyway, best post:

Lol everyone’s accusing eachother of being feds pic.twitter.com/NGyGmtGFJZ

— Tess Owen (@misstessowen) November 12, 2022

Cortez Masto now up by almost 5,000 statewide in Nevada's Senate race. https://t.co/f7YRTTzqcY

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 13, 2022

she's predicted to be the winner now

it's over

BREAKING: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Nevada, NBC News projects. https://t.co/VcK8qzC128 pic.twitter.com/sDgaKpyY1F

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 13, 2022

what a relief

now get 51 next month.

judges

now Lake just needs to lose

yes

judges

definitely a bright spot. the admin has done very well so far

Biden has appointed judges at a faster pace than his predecessors (including Trump) even with a 50-50 Senate, and has built a judiciary that is more diverse in terms of professional experience (such as engagement on defendants' rights and civil liberties) as well as race/gender https://t.co/GvLIbgK7Wj pic.twitter.com/ooyxQwJzli

— 🤔Jake Laperruque🌻 (@JakeLaperruque) November 13, 2022

Divided States of America. 50-50 is a relief?

In this context? Very much so.

but it's so... sad

of all of the things in America that are sad, that is way down the list

that doesn’t even make top 10 of “sad” things

If Warnock wins and Dems get to 51-49 that will be even better for a number of reasons

Three huge differences between a 50-50 and 51-49 D majority:

1) Having a majority on each Committee versus power sharing/deadlocks requiring discharge petitions;

2) No single D Senator can hijack/block nominations; and

3) Ds can have *two* members absent and still hold votes.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) November 13, 2022

Also good because many of them are a billion years old and likely to drop dead any day.

true for both sides, as well, which reminds me that Grassley, 89, coasted to an easy victory

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Feinstein steps down after the GA election is over. Newsom can just appoint someone, keep it steady.

She won’t

She might *fall* down

is it rude to make fake "pushing" motions when a senator is nearby? probably rude. could also be confusing when grassley and feinstein are in the same room and all the aides and handlers and media people are all making fake pushing motions

feinstein and grassley plan joint strategy session by niagara falls

*fake pushing whoosh noises*

Seems like one of their problems was that they ran a bunch of absolute freaks

I don’t know how ppl watch pro sports, major corporations spreading woke propaganda while convincing men that the masculine thing to do is watch other men compete in a silly game.

Bread & circuses designed to dilute our awareness.

— Joe Kent for WA-3 (@joekent16jan19) February 14, 2022

When you're obsessed with bottoming, there is no bottom.

I was just reading about that race. Michelle Goldberg wrote a long piece about it ahead of the election, describing the eventual winner, auto shop owner Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, as a "34-year-old rural working-class Democrat who is emphasizing abortion rights": https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/opinion/house-republican-elections.html

Also, Kent captured the Republican nomination by primarying Jaime Herrera Beutler, who was one of the few GOP House members to vote for impeachment.

I agree with Kent but for completely different reasons— I am a lunatic who wholeheartedly believes that professional sports, particularly American football, should be banned.

But my opinions on that are well known from the football death spiral thread

"lol sporpsball" commentary is weirdly common on the right, especially with gun nuts. Some minor leeway for individual bloodsport (MMA) but in the end why are you eating Dorito's on the couch watching the Cowboys when you could be practicing your quickdraw skills while tanning your balls like a real man?

NGL this might be a clock is right twice a day sitch for me

pro sports are still far too male dominated but otherwise i say, play on

idc i just mute the shit out of it on socials, it's almost like it doesn't exist for me. only see it when i go out, everywhere still seems to have tvs all over the place, i wonder if that will ever not be the case.

sometimes feel like the basis for being politically conservative just comes down to deep sexual insecurity or trauma

that last sentence re: koe jent and diluting awareness whatever that means

whatever that means

football is just a circus that distracts everyone from their duty as (white) citizens to TAKE BACK THEIR COUNTRY

"Stay woke"--Joe Kent

Sure...Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder the face of WOKE corporate America.

so wtf happened to florida its just a deep red state now howd that get that way

highest percentage of elderly people
Latinx voting pattern differs from elsewhere
internal migration from blue states
Evangelicals have found the new Jerusalem and it's a malarial swamp
If you deny climate change hard enough you won't be drowning in 20 years