ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

yeah there are a bunch of those technical mishap close calls out there, which are very bad tbf, but to me the worse issue is that we have a bunch of guys sitting in rooms around the world who believe that under the right circumstances we should do a nuclear war, and threshold for that is often lower than the other guys have already started one

fun factoid the line the american guys drew in the sand, russian missiles in cuba, had unbeknownst to them at the time already been crossed, and make no mistake they were ready to go not joking at all

isn't there a story about a Russian nuclear sub which had (erroneously) gotten the command to fire missiles and the guy in charge just couldn't do it? fucking terrifying. dismantle all nukes (except for ours, obv)

I think the current situation sounds as bad as the Cuban missile crisis.

The other situations are just sorta unknown mishaps, which is awful but it isn't living day-to-day with a real threat that it could mean it's all over in a few days. And people are playing it down or saying bullshit like Elon Musk will sort it out. Or that Putin should...just leave.

xp

well I thought the whole thing about the Cuban missile crisis was that Russia could first strike us without us having time to retaliate. under the current situation Russia knows the instant they launch a strike they're toast. I fully believe a lot of leaders are mentally ill psychopaths but I have a hard time buying any of them are thinking that "under the right circumstances we should do a nuclear war". that doesn't really fit in with the narcissist's mindset

"under the current situation Russia knows the instant they launch a strike they're toast."

Who else could they take down with them?

Also assuming Putin is mentally ill is a bit of a stretch. We don't know. All leaders have launched wars and actions in other places.

Putin being mentally ill is a lot of a stretch. There's nothing to reliably suggest Putin's replacement will be much different.

What in particular do you dislike about Musk's plan for negotiations? Obviously re-running the referendums is a non-starter, but in what sense does it differ from your own plan?

In terms of change of plans, do we have much of a sense of what (if any) difference the midterms might make which could make negotiations more (or less) likely?

That’s probably something to ask in one of the million US politics threads, and in general you could do with posting less in here, not more.

I mean if he's (relatively) sound of mind I just don't see what scenario would force his hand into assuring Russia's complete and total destruction & Putin himself going down as the greatest monster in human history. the saber rattling makes sense at least.

anyway I'm far from an expert on international conflict (or anything, really), but Musk's plan of "just give Russia what they want" seems like it would lead to Russia taking over the rest of the non-NATO countries pretty quickly

I feel like we should implement a Kanye rule on this thread where any mention of Musk should be immediately disregarded because who gives a fuck about his “plans”?

Elon Musk is a troll. Also, in the same week he came up with a peace plan that gives Russia everything they want and rewards their aggression, he came up with a peace plan for Taiwan and China that gives China everything they want and rewards their aggression.

Tech lords can be and often are natural allies of authoritarian regimes. Musk’s Ukraine “peace plan” is a total joke and is only intended to please his own troll army

oops, xps

"What in particular do you dislike about Musk's plan for negotiations?"

This guy should be chucked out of a helicopter and have his assets ceased and companies liquidated. He shouldn't be heard on Ukraine, or anything else.

xps

Also, in the same week he came up with a peace plan that gives Russia everything they want and rewards their aggression

Thats fair enough, I don't exactly like his plan much either! I think the question was regarding fact no one in the west was putting forward a plan for negotiations. I didn't think that was quite true, he was just the most prominent that has some level of power, whether we like it or not.

If we want to start pushing for negotiations, are there better suggestions? I can see the appeal of negotiations for sure, but what do they look like? Is having more voices in the west talking about negotiating a settlement a good thing or a bad thing?

Who is "we"? ILX?

People who are looking for ways to de-escalate and get Russia to the table

Hilarious. Just because I don't have the thing mapped out end to end for you doesn't mean efforts shouldn't be made for that outcome.

Though I do know Elon Musk should have nothing to do with it.

isn't the Elon Musk plan (that was dictated to him by Putin) basically just that Ukraine should voluntarily hand over some portion of their country to Russia?

Crimea iirc

I'm only really aware of Musk because of the Teslas and the Starlink thing he did in Mariupol, and then he was the most prominent person suggesting de-escalation so I wasn't all that aware of anything else about him. If his plan is unsuitable, what about Chomsky's?

Have you considered googling or reading a book or anything

I am deeply envious if that's really all you know about Elon Musk

what is Chomsky's plan?

FUCK ELON MUSK

FUCK LISTENING TO CEOS ABOUT ANYTHING

Chomsky’s plan seems narrow but well founded

Hi Karl, the most recent comments about about a peace plan that I've found are from a Sept. 22 interview, when he mentions this one. Is it what you're referring to:

In the current issue of Foreign Affairs, the major establishment journal, Fiona Hill and Angela Stent — highly regarded policy analysts with close government connections — report that:

According to multiple former senior US officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement. The terms of that settlement would have been for Russia to withdraw to the positions it held before launching the invasion on February 24. In exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.

On dubious evidence, Hill and Stent blame the failure of these efforts on the Russians, but do not mention that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at once flew to Kyiv with the message that Ukraine’s Western backers would not support the diplomatic initiative, followed by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who reiterated the official U.S. position that Washington’s goal in the war is to “weaken” Russia, meaning that negotiations are off the table.

Whether such initiatives continue, we do not know. If they do, they would not lack popular support, not only in the Global South but even in Europe, where “77 percent of Germans believe that the West should initiate negotiations to end the Ukraine war.” Surprisingly, more than half of Slovaks are reported to favor a Russian victory.

On dubious evidence, Hill and Stent blame the failure of these efforts on the Russians

sorry dow, i was just joking that chomsky's plan was what brimstead posted directly after me. sorry for any confusion!

but thank you for looking into it all the same!

And thank you for getting me to look it up.

Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.

*from* a number of countries.

Maybe Putin didn't feel motivated to settle then, thinking he could get what he wanted militarily, or close enough. Also maybe thinking Europe would basically go along because of energy dependence.

― dow, Thursday, October 13, 2022 1:46 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

yeah seems like it, worth noting too that it was general consensus amongst experts governmental media and otherwise was that russia would easily occupy ukraine so its not like he was the only one who thought it was a good plan, this turning into a successful proxy war is really beyond natos wildest dreams

im sympathetic to those who argue that nato unnecessarily exacerbated the situation, obvs they did and were just doing their typical extremely callus geopolitics, but also the idea that there was some way to mollify putin with a reasonable proposal aka the musk doctrine seems pretty absurd on its face, its a tough situation! russia was already occupying two of its neighbors and had publicly stated that a bunch more land was rightful theirs which is not a super open and welcoming negotiating position, obvs you could argue that the wests posture is was caused russia to go nuts on this issue but idk its not normal behavior

of course now russia is prob more open to negotiating but i mean the grant them the territory theyre on the verge of losing and give them time to build up their military will prob not find too many takers amongst anyone who is in any sort of position to accept that offer

dont want to talk too much about musk cause obvs hes a clown and a bad person to boot but lol at him talking to putin and then tweeting out better just give him what he wants, what a rube

im sympathetic to those who argue that nato unnecessarily exacerbated the situation

Yeah, if it's true that Ukraine was willing to negotiate and the US put the kibosh on that to further weaken Russia, as that War On The Rocks excerpt says ... that's fucking monstrous.

On the other hand, people acting like this is just a proxy war, ignoring Ukraine because the REAL STORY is the US vs Russia ... can also go fuck themselves.

yeah has anyone thought of asking ukrainians how they feel about all this

pretty sure they dont want to live in russia, and with good reason seeing as russia is currently forcibly relocating many of them, which if you follow that thought to its logical conclusion re peace plans the big problem is theres just very little reason to trust russia to not keep doing bad things in the future

Apologies for further Musk, but it's not impossible that he's cosying up to Putin and Xi for no greater geopolitical purpose than to get barred from buying Twitter.

yeah has anyone thought of asking ukrainians how they feel about all this

I don't think we're going to hear any voices coming out of Ukraine in favor of negotiations any time soon, for the reasons you outline. I think the idea behind negotiations was to prevent escalation (ie the conflict spilling outside Ukraine's borders).

Thats why any voices for de-escalation and negotiations are more likely to come from the US or Germany (and to a lesser extent France, UK, maybe Greece). For that to happen Ukraine would need to stop receiving material support from the West (or reduced), which is why winter in Europe and the midterms would be factors (not clear by how much in latter case). Thats where we'd probably start to see more calls for negotiations if there were domestic pressures in the west, far more likely than from within Ukraine (where it already is escalated). This might be some time off though and in case of Europe maybe changes in government if it came electoral issue

"I don't think"
"I think"
"more likely"
"not clear"
"probably"
"more likely"
"might"
"maybe"

what is the point of posting like this? gyac otm, read a book or something

Apologies for further Musk, but it's not impossible that he's cosying up to Putin and Xi for no greater geopolitical purpose than to get barred from buying Twitter.

― Andrew Farrell, Friday, October 14, 2022 4:16 PM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol do like this theory

there’s gotta be a better way

he tried the bot thing what else is there

I don't get much out of anvil's posts, but the use of qualifiers ix appropriate if you're gonna muse about the future (but yes, read a book, cite sources from somewhere other than anonymous voices of etc who talk bullshit)

Sweden bails out of the Nord Stream investigation.

The Nordic country does not want to share results of its own investigations with other countries, according to the report. The exact security concerns that have resulted in Sweden dropping out of the joint investigation are unclear.

re the nukes

Did Russia threaten to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Not really. At least not yet. I've put together some of my thoughts in this op-ed in @MoscowTimes. Some key points (which you have seen here already) https://t.co/aXmj7KzVKz

So far, all 'treats' were against the West... 1/

— Pavel Podvig (@russianforces) October 18, 2022

In a late-night address posted on Telegram, Russian-installed Kherson official Kirill Stremousov calls for people to "evacuate the city as quickly as possible" and says Ukraine "will begin an offensive on the city of Kherson very soon" pic.twitter.com/NBOvy1zJCo

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) October 18, 2022

“The enemy continually attempts to attack the positions of Russian troops,” Sergei Surovikin said in his first televised interview since being appointed earlier this month...

Huh.. now why would they do that?

I'll save discussion of the U.S. political dimensions of this for the U.S. politics thread, but worth noting here.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy “signaled that additional aid to Ukraine, now in the ninth month of war with Russia, is unlikely if Republicans have a House majority.” https://t.co/cpoO0bdYTH

— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) October 18, 2022

we're all gonna fucking die lol

cmon republicans arent gonna stand in the way of a defense industry sales

They'll just redirect the defense money printer to arming Taiwan, everyone* ends up happy.

*in DC