ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I think Putin is just stalling for time hoping the GOP gets back in power in the US and it is a cold as fxxx winter in Europe and can sue for some type of win to keep what he has got, along with staying in power.

here's hoping for speedy delivery/assemblage:

Ukraine's Nato-led allies have announced deliveries of advanced air defence weapons to Kyiv, after a spate of Russian missile strikes.

The weaponry promised by the UK, Canada, France and the Netherlands includes missiles and radars. The US earlier made a similar pledge. One high-tech system from Germany is already in Ukraine.

The pledges come as Ukraine's allies from 50 countries meet at Nato headquarters in Brussels.

having said that this war def increases the danger, not sure what the graceful way for putin to lose is

Falling out of a hospital window.

wld prob be best for everyone

except him i guess

I dunno, the promotion of this Surovikin to chief Ukraine commander, and his appointment of Kadyrov as some kind of commander as well .. does not bode well for Ukraine's civilian population

Syria was a whole different kettle of fish than Ukraine. For one thing, Ukraine is getting tens of billions of dollars worth of NATO-quality armaments. Syria got nothing remotely comparable. Also, the western sanctions regime in support of Syria wasn't remotely as harsh as those in force today. Surovkin will have to deal with collapsing fronts and a greatly diminished military capacity, just as his predecessors had to. Killing civilians and destroying basic infrastructure will certainly be pursued, but it isn't a very promising battlefield strategy when your army is being defeated.

I think Putin is just stalling for time hoping the GOP gets back in power in the US and it is a cold as fxxx winter in Europe and can sue for some type of win to keep what he has got, along with staying in power.

I think yes and no on this one. The above strategy would make a lot of sense, but Putin is also trapped by circumstances of his own making. ie - the strikes this week make this less likely not more

All along the war has had paradoxical requirements. The need for it to be big and small at the same time. The flashy strikes may have satiated the Z-patriots at home (though even that is temporary), but also galvanizes and refocuses both the west and Ukraine. It runs contrary to the need to make Westerners tire of Ukraine.

As you say, it would make more sense to let a cold winter grind Europe down, and play that card too. But there's no guarantee how quick or how successful that card would be either, and its a gamble. Time is on his side in one sense, but also against him in another. Waiting for the GOP to get back in isn't a guarantee, and he can't necessarily rely on the GOP being more amenable to Russia. It may lead to more Orbans in Europe but thats not quick either

As for a nuclear strike, its not clear where that would be. Troops are too dispersed to make a battlefield nuke worthwile. A nuke in a Ukrainian city isn't going to change Ukrainian resolve. Rightly or wrongly Ukrainians believe Russians want them all dead, so there's no real incentive to surrender, given what we've seen happens to Ukrainians that live under Russian occupation.

Its telling that (I don't think?) Putin has ever really talked about it other than in the abstract. I'm not sure which (if any) nuclear approach would yield him the most benefit, so it might be that its only when or if that becomes clear that we get a clearer picture

theyre all lesser of two evils options for putin. and thats what got us here - because putin felt like his only options were to accept creeping natofication or invade ukraine

Or he could try to impress/buy/create more neighboring allies/oligarchs to overcome their western sympathies, but whatever why not just destroy/kill/invade. I mean, he could even try to make a superior alternatives but putin gonna putin, our bad.

the world has only avoided nuclear catastrophe by dumb luck so far

having said that this war def increases the danger, not sure what the graceful way for putin to lose is

― lag∞n, Wednesday, 12 October 2022 bookmarkflaglink

I don't think the first statement is really true. I reckon there have been serious diplomatic efforts made in the past to de-escalate situations and what I'm not seeing are the ways to get Russia on the table (apart from the deal to get grain out if Ukraine so that parts if the world don't starve) to negotiate a way for Putin to gracefully lose. All I see is escalation which is why this seems way worse than the Cold war.

Yes I don't think it was about dumb luck at all. The Cold War was worse though because it lasted for decades and was a constant.

I’d settle for a negotiated retreat which involves Putin directing a tactical micro nuke at this thread specifically.

what I'm not seeing are the ways to get Russia on the table (apart from the deal to get grain out if Ukraine so that parts if the world don't starve) to negotiate a way for Putin to gracefully lose.

Elon Musk came up with a potential way out, there are people making suggestions, influential people too. We may see more suggestions depending how the energy situation effects Europe over the next 4-5 months.

It may depend on whether Putin is looking for a way out, or if he is able to, given what looks to be a more precarious situation domestically than a month ago. The annexations may potentially have complicated the situation, Russia giving up some its territory may be difficult to pull off gracefully, and could be dangerous for him domestically, could potentially be risky

"Elon Musk came up with a potential way out, there are people making suggestions, influential people too."

Lol.

I mean it might mean the annexed territory is lost for now? I'd rather the world kept going than what I'm reading.

Reading back, wow lots of people don’t like the fact that the US nuked a load of civilians brought up huh.

It would probably involve the territories staying annexed yes (which was also the main thrust of Musks suggestion)

It really depends what the west is willing to give up, and if we're willing to give those oblasts up or not.

Other solutions might be the softening of sanctions, that would be de-escalatory. The landscape may also change after the midterms, and it remains to be seen what happens over the winter in Europe - provided Russia doesn't also weaken too much over the winter months. Think these things are pretty key which is why I don't see anything changing too much just yet, these cards haven't even been played yet

Maybe you could ask Elon about it. Also some other influential people I'm sure you have a list.

He is making efforts to get Russia to the table is he not? If we're to believe Ian Bremner they've already discussed (not that I necessarily believe Bremner, who knows)

It doesn't take much effort to come up with the crap Musk did. He just googled it then tweeted the top results.

Anvil - yeah sure ask Elon more about it. You can reach him on twitter.

It doesn't take much effort to come up with the crap Musk did. He just googled it then tweeted the top results.

Right, so in terms of negotiations what Musk is proposing is probably the most likely route? And if what we're led to believe is true, he's discussed with Putin (if Bremner is to be believed) and he has the ear of the GOP too. Is he currently the most prominent voice in the west arguing for negotiations?

You don’t get to make comments like “this is what I’m hearing on the streets of Dnipro” as though you’re not completely credulous. Then again, that kind of inanity is exactly what you’d expect.

Fire up your twitter anvil. You have it in you to be an Elon reply guy. Don't let this talent of yours go to waste.

the world has only avoided nuclear catastrophe by dumb luck so far

having said that this war def increases the danger, not sure what the graceful way for putin to lose is

― lag∞n, Wednesday, 12 October 2022 bookmarkflaglink

I don't think the first statement is really true.

― xyzzzz__, Thursday, October 13, 2022 4:17 AM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yes I don't think it was about dumb luck at all.

― Fronted by a bearded Phil Collins (Tom D.), Thursday, October 13, 2022 4:22 AM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

it is true tho, cuban missile crisis being the obvious example but there are others too, and prob ones we dont even know about

The nuclear codes being set to the default for decades was what I immediately thought of

just having the nuclear use doctrines for years being basically if you so much as lay a finger on us or any of our myriad allies we will destroy the world is wild, thankful that has since been rethought

one interesting thing about putins threats is russia hasnt updated its nuclear doctrine which irrc is something like if you threaten russias ability to continue to function as a country eg attack moscow we may nuke you

I had heard rumors about flocks of geese, I didn’t realize that was a Joker meme. Apparently true though. But what the fuck?

On March 11, 1958, the captain of a U.S. B-47E bomber en route from the state of Georgia to England for routine exercises accidentally released an atomic bomb when he mistakenly used the emergency bomb-release mechanism as a handhold during an aircraft inspection. The Mark 6 30-kiloton fission bomb landed in Mars Bluff, South Carolina. No one was killed, but six were injured. The bomb took out a girl’s playhouse, completely destroyed a family home, and decimated the surrounding woods.

yeah there are a bunch of those technical mishap close calls out there, which are very bad tbf, but to me the worse issue is that we have a bunch of guys sitting in rooms around the world who believe that under the right circumstances we should do a nuclear war, and threshold for that is often lower than the other guys have already started one

fun factoid the line the american guys drew in the sand, russian missiles in cuba, had unbeknownst to them at the time already been crossed, and make no mistake they were ready to go not joking at all

isn't there a story about a Russian nuclear sub which had (erroneously) gotten the command to fire missiles and the guy in charge just couldn't do it? fucking terrifying. dismantle all nukes (except for ours, obv)

I think the current situation sounds as bad as the Cuban missile crisis.

The other situations are just sorta unknown mishaps, which is awful but it isn't living day-to-day with a real threat that it could mean it's all over in a few days. And people are playing it down or saying bullshit like Elon Musk will sort it out. Or that Putin should...just leave.

xp

well I thought the whole thing about the Cuban missile crisis was that Russia could first strike us without us having time to retaliate. under the current situation Russia knows the instant they launch a strike they're toast. I fully believe a lot of leaders are mentally ill psychopaths but I have a hard time buying any of them are thinking that "under the right circumstances we should do a nuclear war". that doesn't really fit in with the narcissist's mindset

"under the current situation Russia knows the instant they launch a strike they're toast."

Who else could they take down with them?

Also assuming Putin is mentally ill is a bit of a stretch. We don't know. All leaders have launched wars and actions in other places.

Putin being mentally ill is a lot of a stretch. There's nothing to reliably suggest Putin's replacement will be much different.

What in particular do you dislike about Musk's plan for negotiations? Obviously re-running the referendums is a non-starter, but in what sense does it differ from your own plan?

In terms of change of plans, do we have much of a sense of what (if any) difference the midterms might make which could make negotiations more (or less) likely?

That’s probably something to ask in one of the million US politics threads, and in general you could do with posting less in here, not more.

I mean if he's (relatively) sound of mind I just don't see what scenario would force his hand into assuring Russia's complete and total destruction & Putin himself going down as the greatest monster in human history. the saber rattling makes sense at least.

anyway I'm far from an expert on international conflict (or anything, really), but Musk's plan of "just give Russia what they want" seems like it would lead to Russia taking over the rest of the non-NATO countries pretty quickly

I feel like we should implement a Kanye rule on this thread where any mention of Musk should be immediately disregarded because who gives a fuck about his “plans”?

Elon Musk is a troll. Also, in the same week he came up with a peace plan that gives Russia everything they want and rewards their aggression, he came up with a peace plan for Taiwan and China that gives China everything they want and rewards their aggression.

Tech lords can be and often are natural allies of authoritarian regimes. Musk’s Ukraine “peace plan” is a total joke and is only intended to please his own troll army

oops, xps

"What in particular do you dislike about Musk's plan for negotiations?"

This guy should be chucked out of a helicopter and have his assets ceased and companies liquidated. He shouldn't be heard on Ukraine, or anything else.

xps

Also, in the same week he came up with a peace plan that gives Russia everything they want and rewards their aggression

Thats fair enough, I don't exactly like his plan much either! I think the question was regarding fact no one in the west was putting forward a plan for negotiations. I didn't think that was quite true, he was just the most prominent that has some level of power, whether we like it or not.

If we want to start pushing for negotiations, are there better suggestions? I can see the appeal of negotiations for sure, but what do they look like? Is having more voices in the west talking about negotiating a settlement a good thing or a bad thing?

Who is "we"? ILX?

People who are looking for ways to de-escalate and get Russia to the table

Hilarious. Just because I don't have the thing mapped out end to end for you doesn't mean efforts shouldn't be made for that outcome.

Though I do know Elon Musk should have nothing to do with it.

isn't the Elon Musk plan (that was dictated to him by Putin) basically just that Ukraine should voluntarily hand over some portion of their country to Russia?

Crimea iirc

I'm only really aware of Musk because of the Teslas and the Starlink thing he did in Mariupol, and then he was the most prominent person suggesting de-escalation so I wasn't all that aware of anything else about him. If his plan is unsuitable, what about Chomsky's?

Have you considered googling or reading a book or anything