ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

not any sort of russia expert but it does look like a pretty hardline situation

having said that it does look like hes put himself in a tough spot! couldve just been chilling selling oil and what not, but dreams of empire simply will not leave him alone

kind of funny hes renewed the ancient russian obsession with securing the european plain, bro no one is going to invade you calm down

As far as the de-nazification canard, who were released in the prisoner swap? The Azov Brigadiers that were captured from the steelworks, the very 'nazis' that supposedly prompted the invasion. Several young men fleeing mobilization at the Kazakh border cited this as the last straw, when the official narrative officially fell apart

We are pretty complacent about this

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh/

For starters, that URL entirely misrepresents the contents of the article. The article basically restates the known and obvious factors brought into play by Russia's battlefield losses and Putin's nuclear threats. But the author is just shadowboxing with unnamed "numerous Western commentators {who} assert that Russia is a paper tiger and dismiss Russian nuclear threats as 'bluster'”, which the author rightfully dismisses as a superficial conclusion.

But he brings no new insights to the table. He reviews the current state of the war and some strands of Russian military thinking that encourage the idea of using nukes as strategic coercion, then concludes that Putin may conceivably decide to try threading the needle by using nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the hope of achieving his war goals while not destroying his economy or provoking an even more catastrophic situation. And that we should try to influence his decision in the direction of not using them. Uh, yes, of course.

There are links to both the “paper tiger” and “bluster” claimed by named authors.

Two now constitutes 'numerous'? And that "paper tiger" article doesn't reference nuclear weapons or their potential use. But yes, there are names attached, so those commentators can be identified. Now that you've cherry-picked a single word from my post, would you like to respond to my main point?

Don’t think I will, you’re usually never capable of it yourself.

I didn't think you would.

Yeah, that piece was a bunch of bullshit. I'm just surprised the author didn't pull the "Russia was provoked!" line out; at least he was willing to admit that all these problems are entirely of Putin's own making, and as the Finnish PM said recently, there's a very simple solution. If Russia withdraws, the war is over.

And that we should try to influence his decision in the direction of not using them. Uh, yes, of course.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Wednesday, 12 October 2022 bookmarkflaglink

You say that like it's something that is happening, rather than the path we are on.

I haven't seen anywhere that has looked at the contours of escalation like in this piece.

xp = a lot of posters have been complacent about this going nuclear.

"If Russia withdraws, the war is over."

Laughable really.

I think it’s a mistake to think people are complacent about it, but like, what can we do? There is literally zero point in me thinking about it, not least because it will stress me out over this potentially horrifying outcome that I have no control over. We can’t make our governments do the things we do like most of the time. What’s the answer?

There is no answer but in a way this is no different than talking most things that governments do.

I have seen very aggressive talk in the liberal media ecosystem (somewhat reflected here too) about taking Russia down, when the route should be de-escalation. Because they have nuclear weapons.

Yeah, that dickswinging is weird for the reasons you say.

there's a very simple solution. If Russia withdraws, the war is over.

Very true and probably irrelevant, because while Putin remains at the pinnacle of the Russian Federation he will not simply decide to withdraw his forces and cede back Crimea. He wants to start armistice negotiations while he still has a defensible position within Ukraine. His problem right now is Ukraine has no incentive to bargain away any part of their territory, including Crimea, and his army cannot create that kind of incentive. If his military position continues to crumble that's what the nukes would be used for - forcing talks to end the war so that a formula can be found that lets him claim a territorial victory of some sort. He's determined not to walk away empty-handed and Ukraine is determined to force him out of every part of Ukraine.

As far as the de-nazification canard, who were released in the prisoner swap? The Azov Brigadiers that were captured from the steelworks, the very 'nazis' that supposedly prompted the invasion. Several young men fleeing mobilization at the Kazakh border cited this as the last straw, when the official narrative officially fell apart

I don't think the narrative fell apart. The official narrative was always highly flexible and multipronged, and this aspect had largely been dropped, or at least relegated, even before the first large prisoner exchange. But yes some were upset about the exchange still.

As far as I can tell the narrative is becoming less flexible and more focused now though

should Putin decide to use a tactical nuke, what steps could/should the US take to avoid an all-out nuclear war?

I think the idea is to pressure Ukraine to cede some territory so Putin can declare victory and leave. The fact that Ukraine doesn't want to do that - despite being the country at risk of getting nuked first - gives me pause.

fwiw I do find it pretty amusing that so many people are terrified of what Putin may do, when history suggests that it's really the US you should be afraid of.

what steps could/should the US take to avoid an all-out nuclear war?

The most obvious is not to use nukes in retaliation. Ukraine is not NATO, so NATO retains some flexibility around its response and Ukraine does not control any nukes independently. Moving NATO troops into Ukraine civilian areas, while not engaging in combat roles or declaring war, is one possible response. Preferably one that's agreed upon and communicated as NATO's planned response before any tactical nukes are deployed. Stopping a war is a thousand times harder than starting one.

The official narrative was always highly flexible and multipronged

True, but this was how the invasion was sold back in February.. the sands have obviously shifted, but this was given as the original reason for the 'special operation' even though it was always a crock of shit

Ukraine does not control any nukes independently

And probably now regretting the handover

fwiw I do find it pretty amusing that so many people are terrified of what Putin may do, when history suggests that it's really the US you should be afraid of.

Hey, it's Michael Tracey! Welcome to ILX!

True, but this was how the invasion was sold back in February.. the sands have obviously shifted, but this was given as the original reason for the 'special operation' even though it was always a crock of shit

It was one of a number of reasons that were given, I think mostly to reach different audiences simultaneously who would pick out the reasons they personally preferred, which is why seemingly contradictory messaging worked so well (though I've also seen people replicating all aspects at once or shifting between reasons seamlessly, as with 'they did it to themselves', 'nazis did it', 'americans did it', 'it didnt even happen', 'we had no choice', 'what about iraq')

fwiw I do find it pretty amusing that so many people are terrified of what Putin may do, when history suggests that it's really the US you should be afraid of.

this is what I'm hearing on the streets of Dnipro too

If we give in to nuclear blackmail, the future will be nothing but nuclear blackmail

— Paul Massaro (@apmassaro3) October 11, 2022

xp yes if you watch 1420's youtubes where he talks to Russians - young and old, urban and rural - the switching of blame from those branewormed is wild to see (some reach a dejected "I...don't know" kind of singularity tho

fwiw I do find it pretty amusing that so many people are terrified of what Putin may do, when history suggests that it's really the US you should be afraid of.

Yes that is ohso amusing! Maybe be afraid of both, re history (incl. in the making). But in this case, that incl. and mostly is what the US will not do:
per my post about the xpost Iron Dome and so forth, any anti-missile defence system for Ukraine is likely to be cobbled together at best, and what will Putin do when he sees that's being worked on? Any defense can provoke him, just like any other response so far. If the Repubs take at least the House, at best they'll slow-walk any further aid, probably with a lot of conditions.
As for the rest of NATO and Europe, re my previous posts re the rising right and energy concerns for the winter as rationalization for pro-Putin inclinations, there's plenty that will not be done---maybe this prospect will motivate Zelensyy to negotiate (if others in Ukraine will allow him to), though Putin may see this as weakness, and a last chance for victory of some sort, prob involving more blood (or will he finally be ready to just cut a deal, under unprecedented circumstances, with all this highly publicized carnage?)

energy concerns for the winter as rationalization for pro-Putin inclinations,

Moving NATO troops into Ukraine civilian areas, while not engaging in combat roles or declaring war, is one possible response

it's OK not to post

That nuclear blackmail tweet is so brainless!

I think Putin is just stalling for time hoping the GOP gets back in power in the US and it is a cold as fxxx winter in Europe and can sue for some type of win to keep what he has got, along with staying in power.

US did not fxxx over the Saudi's over 9/11, I kinda tend to doubt they will really do much even now although they probably should.

dont really see the angle for russia using nukes, seems unlikely, also if they did i suspect the us wouldnt not respond in kind, there are plenty of other things they can do that would be very bad for russia, which is not to say there arent scenarios where things spiral badly out of control, but thats always the case, the world has only avoided nuclear catastrophe by dumb luck so far

having said that this war def increases the danger, not sure what the graceful way for putin to lose is

dont really see the angle for russia using nukes

i think it's mostly this:

the world has only avoided nuclear catastrophe by dumb luck so far

it doesn't make sense, and no, i don't think it will happen. i'm following it, but not losing sleep over it. there is nothing that can be done.

still. every time there is nuclear escalation (and i think the current situation qualifies as the most intense situation since the cuban missile crisis?), it is playing ...god, i didn't mean to go here...russian roulette.

the whole cold war was worse than this, and other times too, there are some current situations that could be argued to be worse prob

trump having access to the nukes was pretty bad

kind of funny how russia annexed that part of ukraine and made big threats about what would happen if anyone were to attack "russia" and ukraine just kept taking ground and nothing happened

really? i thought i was still sort of paying attention but i haven't really been, for a while. it's all incredibly depressing. so i must be way off

xp to "the whole cold war was worse than this, and other times too, there are some current situations that could be argued to be worse prob"

i mean its kind of unknowable but yeah i stand by statement

I think Putin is just stalling for time hoping the GOP gets back in power in the US and it is a cold as fxxx winter in Europe and can sue for some type of win to keep what he has got, along with staying in power.

here's hoping for speedy delivery/assemblage:

Ukraine's Nato-led allies have announced deliveries of advanced air defence weapons to Kyiv, after a spate of Russian missile strikes.

The weaponry promised by the UK, Canada, France and the Netherlands includes missiles and radars. The US earlier made a similar pledge. One high-tech system from Germany is already in Ukraine.

The pledges come as Ukraine's allies from 50 countries meet at Nato headquarters in Brussels.

having said that this war def increases the danger, not sure what the graceful way for putin to lose is

Falling out of a hospital window.

wld prob be best for everyone

except him i guess

I dunno, the promotion of this Surovikin to chief Ukraine commander, and his appointment of Kadyrov as some kind of commander as well .. does not bode well for Ukraine's civilian population