ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Russian nationalists said to be pressing Putin to fuck up Ukraine infrastructure some more---like the xpost strike on that big dam---and this

Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant struck
Reuters has more information on the Russian strike on the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in the early hours of Monday:

Russian troops struck the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region early on Monday but its reactors have not been damaged and are working normally, Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said.

A blast took place 300 metres away from the reactors and damaged power plant buildings shortly after midnight, Energoatom said in a statement. The attack has also damaged a nearby hydroelectric power plant and transmission lines.

Looks like they wouldn't want to mess it up too badly, if still care about commercial value, breadbasket and so on---"a fine piece of real estate," says President Trump.

Based on what Putin says about his goals and motives, retaining Ukraine's commercial value rates far below the imperative to expand Russia's greatness and fulfill her historic destiny. Experience shows it is always wise to believe an autocrat when they tell you their goals and motives, however crazy they may sound.

RIGA, Latvia — Russia pushed ahead Tuesday with plans to annex occupied regions of Ukraine, as Moscow’s puppet authorities set dates to stage referendums on joining Russia — moves that could dramatically escalate the war.

Officials in the self-declared separatist “republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk, and in the occupied region of Kherson in southern Ukraine, announced “referendums” to be held from Friday to Tuesday. Such votes, which are illegal under Ukrainian and international law, have been widely derided by Western officials as a sham and merely a precursor to annexation.

After annexing the territories, Moscow probably would declare Ukrainian attacks on those areas to be assaults on Russia itself, analysts warned, a potential trigger for a general military mobilization or a dangerous escalation, such as the use of a nuclear weapon.

...

Moscow’s proxy leader in Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, appealed to Russia for help organizing the referendum, highlighting the thin veneer of pretense that local officials were in control. Denis Pushilin, the puppet leader in Donetsk, said police and members of his administration’s “electoral commission” would knock on people’s doors and “invite” them to vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/20/russia-referendum-annexation-luhansk-donetsk-kherson-ukraine/

On the mobilization effort.

Perhaps a useful addition - mobilization & stop-loss might help Moscow stem the deteriorating quantity of the force, but not the deteriorating quality of the force & its morale. Having used up its best equipment, officers, & personnel, I don't see how this can be recovered.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) September 21, 2022

was just hearing that Russians on mandatory conscription in Ukraine, which is supposed to be a 12 month contract now can't go home and refuseniks will face a 10 yr prison sentence. That won't be good for morale.

And now the head of the Wagner Group has been recruiting actual convicted murderers from Russian prisons, because that's always a good force to tap into

I just don’t get how any reasonable person can equivocate this shit any more.

"Russian soldiers have raped and tortured children in Ukraine," a UN panel has found. "There are examples of cases where relatives were forced to witness the crimes." https://t.co/PK5JlZZcoN

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) September 23, 2022

My grandma’s family had to leave Lithuania in the 1940s, being hunted by the Nazis and their Lithuanian collaborators. One child, disabled, never made it. I find these forms of collective blame-throwing a bit insulting coming from Lithuanian authorities. https://t.co/N8ymZyAjrX

— Agustín Cosovschi (@cosovschi) September 24, 2022

Also, I've seen reports of Russian antiwar protestors being arrested and signed into the military: there's yer "stay and fight," so far.

Poland’s former Foreign Minister, a sitting member of the European Parliament, is praising what he suggests is a US attack on part-German-owned civilian infrastructure, which could condemn millions to poverty in a frigid winter. I am speechless. https://t.co/QqtdPDIdJc

— Paweł Wargan (@pawelwargan) September 27, 2022

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/27/nord-stream-1-2-pipelines-leak-baltic-sabotage-fears

Is that the Bullingdon Club guy?

I don't know..

Indeed it is.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rados%C5%82aw_Sikorski

Sikorski's follow-up:

BTW, there's no shortage of pipeline capacity for taking gas from Russia to Western Europe, including Germany. Nordstream's only logic was for Putin to be able to blackmail or wage war on Eastern Europe with impunity.

— Radek Sikorski MEP (@radeksikorski) September 27, 2022

was kind of weird to see that, today, in the confusion of not knowing exactly what happened or who did it or what the consequences are, two different friends immediately decided that the U.S. did it and cited video showing that Biden warned he would do it

Poland’s former Foreign Minister... is praising what he suggests is a US attack on part-German-owned civilian infrastructure

I didn't read "Thank you, USA" as praise, but he was clearly suggesting it was sabotage perpetrated by the USA, giving zero reasons for that attribution of responsibility. if he has more info, let him share it. otherwise, it is just "I am blathering", and it's unclear what - or whose - purposes he was serving.

was kind of weird to see that, today, in the confusion of not knowing exactly what happened or who did it or what the consequences are, two different friends immediately decided that the U.S. did it and cited video showing that Biden warned he would do it

There's definitely something kind of weird about seeing the exact same video cited again and again by different people - and this is certainly one of those

As to who did it, I'm not exactly sure. It does make it explicit that global core infrastructure is in play, if it wasn't already - but maybe to wider audience

"In real terms, that’s the same climate impact as the emissions from 2 million gasoline cars over the course of a year" https://t.co/F5Egl8Y82N

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) September 28, 2022

Where are these calculations coming from? Nordstream 2 has never been in use, and 1 has been shutdown for "maintenance."

And since the pipelines are not functioning, what would be the US (or other Western) motivation to sabotage? The take "US attack on part-German-owned civilian infrastructure, which could condemn millions to poverty in a frigid winter" might suggest motive from another direction.

Scooby Doo and those meddling kids will get to the bottom of this Pipeline Perfidy soon enough. While we're on the subject, though:

http://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/energy/russia-burning-natural-gas

The flaring at Gazprom’s Portovaya plant is an “environmental disaster,” Rystad said, with about 9,000 tons of carbon dioxide being emitted every day. That’s the same amount of emissions produced over a whole year by more than 1,100 average American homes.

Not loving all the nuke talk floating around today

1,100 American homes is hardly anything right?

Sounds like…Americans might pollute more per capita by any other country?

It would be easier to understand to compare daily emissions on both sides, not daily on one side to yearly on the other.

Is the argument here that dropping nukes on Ukraine would be nothing compared to how much Americans pollute?

Much pollution on both sides.

xp No?! It just struck me as an insane statistic

Oh I see, didn't look at tbe post from 4 days ago

For all the new right-wing winners in Europe (Bulgaria the latest), plus already irate right-wing citizens of Czech Republic, making a deal for natural gas will be the most rational approach to overtly pro-Putin (or anyway pro-Russian, if he's removed) policies and processes: a sort of EU of Nationalists---hope I'm wrong---but there's also this, from those who don't need the gas and don't give a shit about/maybe are even further enraged by Ukraine taking back territory, pickin' on Putin, that true Red Stater:

A significant chunk of the GOP wants to curtail aid to Ukraine. If Republicans win a House majority, they'll be able to act on that position.

...
The Ukrainian gains in Kherson follow the recapture over the weekend of the strategic transit hub of Lyman, in eastern Donetsk. Ukrainian forces encircled the city, killing some of the retreating Russian troops whose bodies collected on the roadsides. The Ukrainians then pushed through Lyman apparently intent on extending their gains into Luhansk, the region where Russia has maintained its strongest grip.

The collapse of the Russian position in Lyman was notable because it occurred just as Putin was claiming that the city and all of Donetsk region, along with Luhansk, Kherson and Zarpoizhzhia, were annexed and restored to Russia as part of its historical lands. But unlike in Kharkiv where Moscow ordered a retreat, Russian forces had apparently been told to defend Lyman.

“All Russian forces withdrew in poor order, suffering high casualties from artillery fire as they attempted to leave the town to the East,” the Western official said of Lyman, comparing it to Kharkiv. “Then, as you recall, troops received an order to cede the territory,” the official said. “But in Lyman we think that the Russian troops retreated despite orders to defend and remain”

I don't think anyone in this thread was claiming that Americans don't pollute, let alone don't pollute the most per capita? Shadowboxing aside, we've already seen and will probably see more statements like this from the at first weird, but by now predictable convergence of certain left and right wing populists re: Ukraine.

Are you willing to starve and be left in a cold home for the sake of Ukrainian democracy?

— Lavern Spicer 🇺🇸 (@lavern_spicer) September 24, 2022

Many people are saying this, etc.

Once again replying to a point nobody made. The only point is that it’s a startling statistic.

xpost re pressure of fuel needs, hope this will work out:

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The White House has ruled out any ban or curbs on natural-gas exports this winter, in a bid to help alleviate energy shortages in Europe, according to two people directly involved in the discussions.

In March, U.S. President Joe Biden committed to deliver 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) more of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has already surpassed that goal.

Further White House analysis has only cemented support for ongoing exports, the sources said, although rising energy costs and a colder-than-expected winter could test Biden's commitment. A ban has not been seriously considered, said a U.S. official.
Biden and his aides are bracing for the prospect that inflation-fatigued Americans will pay high home-heating bills this winter. Inventories of natural gas, the nation's primary heating fuel, are at historically low levels after U.S. companies exported record amounts to Europe in recent months to counter a cut in supplies and higher prices for European power plants.

and just in case it wasn't clear, my nuke comment was not meant to be in response to the post about natural gas. I was responding to the reports that Russia's tactical nuke division appeared to be bringing equipment into the region, which is a bit worrying to me, but perhaps not to anyone else.

The way I think about it (those nukes are a lot closer to me!) is if they nuked here, hopefully I’d be vaporised instantly and I’d just kill myself if I wasn’t. It’s not worth me worrying about it.

I sincerely hope that if Russia dropped a tactical nuke on or near a Ukraine city that would not be your response. The chance that any nuclear weapon is used is probably still low, but there's a pretty broad range of how something like this could play out and many scenarios that are not the classic world ending event that we've all been raised with. There are plenty of horribly shitty things that could happen that fall far short of utter apocalypse.

which is a bit worrying to me, but perhaps not to anyone else.

xp if you want to scroll up and read what I said months ago about how I felt about visiting Ukraine and how fucking heartbreaking the situation is, you can do so at any time. You have no control over the situation, what are you going to do?

xp

"anyone else" meaning on ILX, not in the world at large

I think a lot of people on ilx care. And getting back to pressure from "realists." just that nukes's being presented (by Putin's hints, by Chechen Dude etc. saying he should fucken do it, no more Mr. Nice Guy) by gen. chatter, as an option, say, is a reminder of how this whole situation has moved past dealmaking as more than another gamble, with somebody who no longer seems like stone cold transactional Mastermind.

The stone has cracked etc.

it is horrible and heartbreaking and not at all something that we should have to even think about in a reasonable world, and we have little control over it, but maybe some small increase in general awareness can help keep pressure on Russia and be a check on them doing something so massively stupid

Putin will do what he wants. I’m not sure ordinary citizens of anywhere will affect that. It’s not like he even cares about what others who could reach him were saying to him.

soviet unions coming back baby

IT BEGINS: Moscow's TASS news reports that mobilized troops in the Omsk region are electing spokesmen to complain about conditions and lack of pay. These are literally acts of mutiny and insubordination-- and don't bode well for the combat performance Putin’s newest troops. https://t.co/CrCQsqEiJa

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 5, 2022

in all seriousness it does seem like russians do not want to fight and tbf why would they fundamentally what is the reason for the war, now ukraine is taking territory at will, russia is losing the war and more troops wont help if they cant train and supply them or really make them want to fight

maybe they are quiet quitting

lying flat (dying)