Why is everyone so mean?? US Politics: September 2022

Some hard truths here

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/09/trump-judge-aileen-cannon-court-reform.html

It's super frustrating because there are still at this very minute tons of legal professionals pushing out endless takes about "this is not how things work" and well I have news for you...

So we're just gonna let them change the subject from abortion to immigration?

(NB I form my view of the world via my Twitter feed)

It's the GOP's go-to topic when things aren't going well for them

Cue THE CARAVANS

I'm not sure I agree with this response to the same-sex marriage farrago, but it's something.

The original draft of this sentence read, "'They’ll get more votes in November and December than they’ll get on Monday,' GOP Senator Roy Blunt told reporters, managing not to laugh as they pretended to believe him."

I don't know how good Yougov polls are but doin' stuff seems to be a successful move.

This is wild @chrislhayes pic.twitter.com/MihOt9Ozyq

— Matt Hodges (@hodgesmr) September 16, 2022

i thought yougov was an unscientific poll (like a web-based opt-in poll) but maybe I'm wrong

Even as they struggle to persuade voters that they should be trusted on the economy, Democrats remain unexpectedly competitive in the battle for Congress as the sprint to November’s midterm election begins, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.

The surprising Democratic strength has been bolstered by falling gas prices and President Biden’s success at breaking through legislative gridlock in Washington to pass his agenda. That shift in political momentum has helped boost, in just two months, the president’s approval rating by nine percentage points and doubled the share of Americans who believe the country is on the right track.

But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/us/politics/biden-democrats-abortion-trump-poll.html

Don't talk to Jeanine Spanjers -- no popcorn!

Jeanine Spanjers, 44, from Racine, Wis., said that rising inflation had caused her to change her lifestyle, including driving less, skipping vacations and even abstaining from popcorn when she goes to the movies. A state employee, she also said she believed that Democrats were handing out too many government subsidies, pointing to relief payments distributed during the pandemic.

“What’s getting on my nerves is all this free stuff,” she said, criticizing how all the children at her son’s school received food stamp cards, including families who could afford to pay for lunch. “Republicans would never do something like that. It disincentivizes people to go out and do something. I’m starting to feel like people are being rewarded for not doing anything.”

Right, of course they're not going to give the Dems credit for having a popular policy position as the GOP zooms further right. Of course.

(in re "factors over which they had little control")

People should be incentivized by the prospect of their children going hungry, damn it.

I wish there was an Equalizer for NY Times small-town diner commentators. Like, poof, I've just given you a disabling injury and gotten you fired from your job, I'll check back in a couple months to see how you feel about government subsidies.

Wouldn’t change much, they’d all be doing the Craig T Nelson rant about “I've been on food stamps and welfare. Anybody help me out? No. No.”

also, they would have a fairly legitimate beef with whoever runs the Equalizer for NY Times. "everything was fine until the Equalizer hurt me"

and who is the Equalizer? you guessed it, Frank Stallone

I can't believe how shoddy are Vets are being treated if you want to cut something how about Welfare 90% of them don't deserve it they lie

— Frank Stallone (@Stallone) October 15, 2013

i can't believe there's a @stallone and it's frank stallone

Jeanine must be fancy if she can go to the movies, I just watch free youtube movies on my phone, and all I can afford to eat is popcorn

(munches away while watcing Escape from Witch Mountain)

like many up-and-coming small business entrepreneurs, i sneak a gallon ziplock bag of prepopped popcorn into the theater and then sell it to eager customers during key scenes in the movie to earn back the cost of the ticket

It shouldn't be the case at this point, bu it's still amazing to me that someone in Racine WI could make these types of statements when Racine is a shining example of what happens to a community when GOP legislators and corporations have their way of things. I'm in Racine all the time, there is shocking inequality, lack of public infrastructure, crumbling roads and empty buildings—not to mention the ridiculous Foxconn development on the edge of town that residents will be subsidizing with tax money for the rest of their lives. There are good things in Racine too, and I would be interested to see how many white entrepreneurs there got funding/loans/etc to spruce up the downtown.

i thought yougov was an unscientific poll (like a web-based opt-in poll) but maybe I'm wrong

― akm, Friday, September 16, 2022 12:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

it's not great, but the change in the same poll is likely real(ish).

dare I say passing the climate deal, which news outlets have called DOA about 75 separate times, was actually a pretty big deal

I signed up for yougov early this year to figure out what the deal was, and it’s very goofy. There are polls on politics and issues that seem decently-crafted, but the way they incentivize people to participate is rewarding users for completing polls that seem like a cross between marketing research and incomprehensible question grab bags

I have no idea who is regularly participating

I'm figuring the debt relief had something to do with the shift in that particular demographic.
It's like some 19th century thing--you deliver for a certain group and then they want to vote for you. How barbaric!

I'm figuring the debt relief had something to do with the shift in that particular demographic.
It's like some 19th century thing--you deliver for a certain group and then they want to vote for you. How barbaric!

― You can't spell Fearless without Earle (President Keyes), Friday, September 16, 2022 3:49 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

It's an irregular verb:
I am rewarding the deserving; you are making sure the boys are covered; he/she/they are rolling out the pork to those people.

Jeanine Spanjers, 44, from Racine, Wis., said that rising inflation had caused her to change her lifestyle

Yesss! She knows that her lifestyle must only ever change in one direction, ever upward no matter what else is happening in the world. Bigger tubs of popcorn w/ more butter, more driving pointlessly from place to place, and of course, more good stuff for Jeanine.

What are the odds she's white?

Racine Demographics
White: 63.91% Black or African American: 22.71% Two or more races: 7.53% Other race: 4.65%
Percent Women Named Jeanine Here Who Are Also White: High%

in today's history I never knew, from a friend:

"The story of the reverse freedom riders [1962]. African Americans from the south who were tricked by segregationists into getting on a bus to Hyannis Mass where they were told the President would greet them. Using human beings in such a dirty publicity stunt was wrong then and is wrong today."

https://www.wgbh.org/news/the-long-journey-north

In the latest installment of the Deranger Sisters...

At the Texas Youth Summit, Lauren Boebert decided she needed to open carry a pistol during her speech. It also featured Matt Gaetz. The same day Gaetz was featured at a youth event it became public that he sought a presidential pardon regarding his alleged sex trafficking crimes. pic.twitter.com/SqMu8cXWB4

— steven monacelli (@stevanzetti) September 17, 2022

Propaganda tactic alert. The purpose of this declaration is to get the notion that Biden should/will impeached into the public mind. MTG is setting the stage for something larger. Recall also that the Texas GOP's new resolution calls Biden an "acting" and illegitimate president. https://t.co/5EHHheH53d

— Ruth Ben-Ghiat (@ruthbenghiat) September 17, 2022

But she also already did that right after she took office, so coming from her it's just, like, a normal Tuesday. Not that I don't think they'll try to impeach Biden once they have control of the House, I think they will. They might end up guillotining him, who knows. Exciting times ahead.

They’ll impeach him Trump+1 to prove a point, they’re not worried about setting the stage for it.

Every American president gets impeached every single term — it’s always been that way, both sides do it, democrats are lucky that Obama didn’t get impeached for his important role in Benghazi and also for those free phones he kept giving out to homeless people (is what I heard) and democrats tried to impeach bush all the time is what I heard but they weren’t allowed to do it because they didn’t have the evidence

And what Biden is doing is so much worse because he’s not even in control, he’s completely lost his mind, and both sides do that because Nancy Reagan used to be president

this is one of the most bizarre things I've seen at a Trump rally. All it is missing is passing around Kool-Aid right after. pic.twitter.com/BmPOztb7kA

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 18, 2022

Let me just say a couple of things about the Trump rally that a lot of folks are missing....

— ProfB (@AntheaButler) September 18, 2022

Good morning @brianschatz @CoryBooker! Hey my gut tells me the @CortezMasto Nevada Senate race determines the Senate majority (and thus if GOP passes a national abortion ban).

Last 3 polls:

CCM 40
Laxalt 41

CCM 48
Laxalt 47

CCM 44
Laxalt 47

Think we can help?

— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) September 18, 2022

this is a quick thing about the polls being systematically off in 2016 and 2020, with Republicans benefitting from that, but not so much during the 2018 mid-term, and what does that mean for the 2022 mid-terms? well shoot, no one knows

https://messagebox.substack.com/p/are-the-polls-giving-democrats-false

when sharing anything i feel the need to warn away everyone who will hate it, so don't read it if you know a lot about polls already, if you recoil at the name Dan Pfeiffer.

also, like me, you may read the words "Polling is a flawed, imperfect measurement, but it’s the only way to get a sense of the political environment — how the voters feel about the candidates, what issues are popping, and what’s making people happy and mad", near the beginning, and get very stuck on it. what does that mean? is that true? of course polling is not the only way to get a sense of the political environment. i suppose he means that polling is the only way to get a measurement in a systematic way, not just for neighborhoods and counties and districts and states one is familiar with but also in places where the political establishment feels estranged (like diners in the ozarks). maybe it's a normal sentence. maybe there is nothing wrong with it.

TL;DR: Fascist thugs don't talk to pollsters, so assume there are a lot more of them than you think and act accordingly.

The Dems outperformed the polls in the most recent special eleictions, though.

Yep. It’s a good sign. Plus the post-roe voter registration. It’s not all doom

!!! a fake brochure promising eight months cash assistance, food, job training/placement, help with housing + more was given to migrants who were lured by @GovRonDeSantis into boarding a flight to martha’s vineyard. @JuddLegum obtained a copy: https://t.co/nSIwWOE6Zh pic.twitter.com/RLtqoeLPC8

— Marisa Kabas (@MarisaKabas) September 19, 2022

"WhEre iS THE OUtRAGE evEry Time BIDeN relocATeS imMIGrAnTS?"

At the end of his speech, eerie music began to play on the loudspeakers as Trump reached the part of his remarks where he ominously goes through a list of all the many ways America and the world are becoming an apocalyptic hellscape without him as president. The music was a song inspired by the QAnon conspiracy theory. And while this was happening, many in the crowd raised their arms and pointed a finger upward. It’s not clear what the gesture meant.

https://i.imgur.com/UOFwg2a.png

i've been reading this book from 1979 with interviews with 18 people who sought enlightenment via the Divine Light Mission. in 1973 they held an event at the astrodome that got very hyped up among the community beforehand, like, something was definitely going to happen at that event and the whole world would be tuning in to hear guru maharaj ji (who was 15 years old) speak and they would be transfixed and turn toward the Knowledge, etc. and then, of course, it didn't quite go that way at the astrodome. the movement didn't end there, but a lot of people drifted off and sought other gurus or joined other enlightenment groups.

anyway, nothing to do with q

Trump is actually 15 years old, which explains several things, and will be with us for at least another 60 years.

republicans have gone absolutely off the rails because what is this LMFAO pic.twitter.com/jX2SBjJ0bF

— matt (@mattxiv) September 18, 2022

Mastriano also getting in on the weird-salute game. Both this and the finger-in-the-air to me look very evangelical — arms reaching heavenward, you see a lot of that in megachurch videos. But they're merging it into these sort of rally salutes. Quite a thing.

Yes, this is a Nazi salute, at a Doug Mastriano campaign event in Pennsylvania. In 2022.

Democracy is literally on the ballot in November.

pic.twitter.com/unKyQKDN9A

— Tristan Snell (@TristanSnell) September 18, 2022