ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

same report:

Though there are no clear numbers for how many Ukrainians have been forcibly relocated, the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights estimated that by June 25, 2022, some 1.7 million people had already reached Russia. Many experts have described these tactics as genocidal.

Painful concessions will have to be made if we are to see an end to this war.

https://i.imgur.com/vqQfEZf.png

All kinds of confused reports but it appears Ukraine has decided to do something big in the Kherson area today.

I remembered that I wanted to translate the instruction manual to possible questions that people distributing russian humanitarian aid might get.
So here it is. https://t.co/ZkfmsLbERY pic.twitter.com/MqZh9diI3i

— Kamepin UA🇺🇦 (@KamepinUa) August 29, 2022

Q: Is Russia here forever?
A: Yes, you do not have to fear, the Russian Federation will not retreat.
Note: in the case of mention of previously liberated territories that were retreated from, they were not part of the special military operation.

Q: I don't want to live in Russia.
A: You are simply scared. Russia is a county of big opportunities with a great history.
Note: Inform the Military Police or other authorities keeping order.

Q: Does Zelensky really hate us?
A: Zelensky does not decide anything, all decisions are done by curators from USA.
Note: Remind them that he is a drug addict.

Lattst for @opendemocracyru thank you @te_rowley @valeria_wants https://t.co/u4fkrPE9T3

— katia semchuk (@katiasemchuk) September 1, 2022

Have they acted on this threat today?

The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea.
It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk.
BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 7, 2022

Intercepted Russian phone call describing situation in Kherson as Ukraine counter-attacks:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldier-kherson-casualties-counteroffensive-ukraine-1740662

Also news of a surprise attack in northeast near Kharkiv:

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/sep/07/ukraine-launches-surprise-counterattack-kharkiv-region-russia

Ukrainian offensive in the northeast picking up speed:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/09/russia-kharkiv-reinforcements-ukraine-counterattack

Yeah it's been a crazy week. Been following this more than other things in the world, shall we say.

that phone call is gnarly

Clearly not as rosy for the Russians in the Kherson area as they paint it in the Russian telegram channels.

As we find from this intercepted call, there is constant HIMARS shelling, jets leave to never come back, and bridges are under permanent danger of strikes and explosions. pic.twitter.com/FPmoxWvE3h

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 6, 2022

And now it's reported that Russia is buying war shit from North Korea, which doesn't seem good.. their technology is probably 1978ish

Vintage

The 70s materiel has such a warmer analog sound.

all analog rockets, all the time

Ya, that digital stuff just doesn’t have the same sound when you drop it and run away.

I'm trying not to lap up every rumor circulating around Telegram, but the main challenge in establishing a clear picture of the situation in Kharkiv appears to be that Russian lines are collapsing faster than Ukraine can even advance and clear liberated areas. Astonishing.

— Tobias Schneider (@tobiaschneider) September 9, 2022

Laughed at comment that Ukrainians may be in danger of running out of flags.

And now it's reported that Russia is buying war shit from North Korea, which doesn't seem good.. their technology is probably 1978ish

times report on this says: american intelligence told us this. we have no proof. associated press says: the pentagon tells us it hasn't actually happened. we have no proof. declassified report: well, this could happen. internet commentators, snorting derisively: huh, imagine, buying military equipment from north korea, what are they gonna get, muskets or something? that'll be no match for our azov boys and their javelins.

north korea is a respected arms dealer, i'll have you know. a real menace to global peace. you run a military first economy and put all your best minds on rockets and weapons systems, you come up with some amazing stuff. and then there are stockpiles to run through. the news is that rather than 1978 the problem is that they reportedly want to buy 1940s basically technology.

i'm not a military expert, but this seems good:

#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️ #Kupiansk #charkow
Prosiliście o aktualizacje animację - poprawiłem i uzupełniłem - co do Izjum oraz Oskil- czekam na potwierdzenia. pic.twitter.com/UgnWe8lbB1

— Martinn (@Martinnkaaaa) September 9, 2022

(watch the animation)

Ukrainian forces seem to have seized some 3,000 sq km and going in a few days in a rapid mechanized thrust that has left Russia’s army disoriented and on the verge of a strategic debacle. There goes the theory that tanks are obsolete in modern warfare. https://t.co/XEAYdhydB2

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) September 10, 2022

Some ppl (idiots I get to see being clueless about politics) are screaming that the war has been "won" but the couple of analysts I've seen are concentrating on the battle and not going further.

BBC World Service just now reporting (to US) that Russians have bombed a dam in Zelenskyy's home area---he's quoted as saying that it is of no military importance but that many (or "millions of"?) people depend on it.

Also that he's been in "minor" car accident (CNN also has this bit already, briefly)

Useful read

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/15/they-re-mostly-after-loans

“There are no independent, objective publications in Tuva anymore. Our profession has been reduced to the level of service work, we are afraid of even a mention of the constitutionally guaranteed right to freedom of thought and expression,” the journalist Nadezhda Antufeva told Meduza. Antufeva is the founder of the newspaper Center of Asia, which came out in February 1991, making it the first independent publication in Tuva, even before the fall of the Soviet Union. She closed the publication at the end of 2019 for economic reasons. This year, the journalist gave herself a 67th birthday present, tattooing “freedom of speech” on her arm.

I'm still mad, but I feel less sorry for myself about what's happening in the US.

i missed that the other day, overall good guy Narendra Modi said some things

Challenged bluntly and publicly by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Russia would strive to stop the conflict “as soon as possible.” But then he accused Ukraine of refusing to negotiate, although Putin ordered the invasion and his troops are still occupying a large swath of Ukrainian territory.

We're following changes at the palace after the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. Get the Post Elizabeth newsletter for updates.
Putin made the remarks during an appearance with Modi in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where they are attending a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

In a stunning public rebuke, Modi told Putin: “Today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.”

The rare reproach showed the 69-year-old Russian strongman coming under extraordinary pressure from all sides. Internationally, he is facing calls to end the war not only from his traditional critics in the West, but also from Asian partners whom he cannot paint as beholden to the U.S. And at home, where he has cracked down on antiwar dissenters, he is being hammered by right-wing hawks who are infuriated over Russia’s military stumbles and are calling for a national draft.

Modi’s remark, as the two leaders sat in front of journalists and cameras, came a day after Putin acknowledged he had heard “concerns and questions” about the war from Chinese President Xi Jinping at the same conference. Xi, however, did not voice his questions or concerns publicly.

Responding to Modi, Putin said: “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, about your concerns that you constantly express. We will do our best to stop this as soon as possible. Only, unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its abandonment of the negotiation process, declared that it wants to achieve its goals by military means, as they say, ‘on the battlefield.’ Nevertheless, we will always keep you informed of what is happening there.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/16/kherson-ukraine-russia-war-putin/

Alla Pugacheva, the single most famous Soviet and post Soviet pop diva, an icon across the former Soviet space and particularly among the generation of Putin supporters speaks out clearly and simply against the war. This is an important count-down moment.

— Arkady Ostrovsky (@ArkadyOstrovsky) September 18, 2022

Russian nationalists said to be pressing Putin to fuck up Ukraine infrastructure some more---like the xpost strike on that big dam---and this

Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant struck
Reuters has more information on the Russian strike on the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in the early hours of Monday:

Russian troops struck the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region early on Monday but its reactors have not been damaged and are working normally, Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said.

A blast took place 300 metres away from the reactors and damaged power plant buildings shortly after midnight, Energoatom said in a statement. The attack has also damaged a nearby hydroelectric power plant and transmission lines.

Looks like they wouldn't want to mess it up too badly, if still care about commercial value, breadbasket and so on---"a fine piece of real estate," says President Trump.

Based on what Putin says about his goals and motives, retaining Ukraine's commercial value rates far below the imperative to expand Russia's greatness and fulfill her historic destiny. Experience shows it is always wise to believe an autocrat when they tell you their goals and motives, however crazy they may sound.

RIGA, Latvia — Russia pushed ahead Tuesday with plans to annex occupied regions of Ukraine, as Moscow’s puppet authorities set dates to stage referendums on joining Russia — moves that could dramatically escalate the war.

Officials in the self-declared separatist “republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk, and in the occupied region of Kherson in southern Ukraine, announced “referendums” to be held from Friday to Tuesday. Such votes, which are illegal under Ukrainian and international law, have been widely derided by Western officials as a sham and merely a precursor to annexation.

After annexing the territories, Moscow probably would declare Ukrainian attacks on those areas to be assaults on Russia itself, analysts warned, a potential trigger for a general military mobilization or a dangerous escalation, such as the use of a nuclear weapon.

...

Moscow’s proxy leader in Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, appealed to Russia for help organizing the referendum, highlighting the thin veneer of pretense that local officials were in control. Denis Pushilin, the puppet leader in Donetsk, said police and members of his administration’s “electoral commission” would knock on people’s doors and “invite” them to vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/20/russia-referendum-annexation-luhansk-donetsk-kherson-ukraine/

On the mobilization effort.

Perhaps a useful addition - mobilization & stop-loss might help Moscow stem the deteriorating quantity of the force, but not the deteriorating quality of the force & its morale. Having used up its best equipment, officers, & personnel, I don't see how this can be recovered.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) September 21, 2022

was just hearing that Russians on mandatory conscription in Ukraine, which is supposed to be a 12 month contract now can't go home and refuseniks will face a 10 yr prison sentence. That won't be good for morale.

And now the head of the Wagner Group has been recruiting actual convicted murderers from Russian prisons, because that's always a good force to tap into

I just don’t get how any reasonable person can equivocate this shit any more.

"Russian soldiers have raped and tortured children in Ukraine," a UN panel has found. "There are examples of cases where relatives were forced to witness the crimes." https://t.co/PK5JlZZcoN

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) September 23, 2022

My grandma’s family had to leave Lithuania in the 1940s, being hunted by the Nazis and their Lithuanian collaborators. One child, disabled, never made it. I find these forms of collective blame-throwing a bit insulting coming from Lithuanian authorities. https://t.co/N8ymZyAjrX

— Agustín Cosovschi (@cosovschi) September 24, 2022

Also, I've seen reports of Russian antiwar protestors being arrested and signed into the military: there's yer "stay and fight," so far.

Poland’s former Foreign Minister, a sitting member of the European Parliament, is praising what he suggests is a US attack on part-German-owned civilian infrastructure, which could condemn millions to poverty in a frigid winter. I am speechless. https://t.co/QqtdPDIdJc

— Paweł Wargan (@pawelwargan) September 27, 2022

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/27/nord-stream-1-2-pipelines-leak-baltic-sabotage-fears

Is that the Bullingdon Club guy?

I don't know..

Indeed it is.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rados%C5%82aw_Sikorski

Sikorski's follow-up:

BTW, there's no shortage of pipeline capacity for taking gas from Russia to Western Europe, including Germany. Nordstream's only logic was for Putin to be able to blackmail or wage war on Eastern Europe with impunity.

— Radek Sikorski MEP (@radeksikorski) September 27, 2022

was kind of weird to see that, today, in the confusion of not knowing exactly what happened or who did it or what the consequences are, two different friends immediately decided that the U.S. did it and cited video showing that Biden warned he would do it

Poland’s former Foreign Minister... is praising what he suggests is a US attack on part-German-owned civilian infrastructure

I didn't read "Thank you, USA" as praise, but he was clearly suggesting it was sabotage perpetrated by the USA, giving zero reasons for that attribution of responsibility. if he has more info, let him share it. otherwise, it is just "I am blathering", and it's unclear what - or whose - purposes he was serving.

was kind of weird to see that, today, in the confusion of not knowing exactly what happened or who did it or what the consequences are, two different friends immediately decided that the U.S. did it and cited video showing that Biden warned he would do it

There's definitely something kind of weird about seeing the exact same video cited again and again by different people - and this is certainly one of those

As to who did it, I'm not exactly sure. It does make it explicit that global core infrastructure is in play, if it wasn't already - but maybe to wider audience

"In real terms, that’s the same climate impact as the emissions from 2 million gasoline cars over the course of a year" https://t.co/F5Egl8Y82N

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) September 28, 2022

Where are these calculations coming from? Nordstream 2 has never been in use, and 1 has been shutdown for "maintenance."

And since the pipelines are not functioning, what would be the US (or other Western) motivation to sabotage? The take "US attack on part-German-owned civilian infrastructure, which could condemn millions to poverty in a frigid winter" might suggest motive from another direction.