BURNPIT: U.S. Politics, August 2022

I don't know, in 2020 Joe Biden needed every single anti-Trump vote to win. I think Liz Cheney running as an independent in 2024 would benefit the GOP.

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/08/cheney-2024-all-mimsey-were-the-borogroves

I guess the spoiler question comes down to (a) whether you think the hypothetical third party is likely to peel more votes away from Biden or from Trump, and (b) how many votes you think each is getting to begin with. If the spoiler is mostly picking up anti-Trump Republicans who just can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, that's great for Biden. If they're peeling off anti-Trump Republicans who actually did make the jump last time, that's bad for Biden. But how many any of any of those people actually exist?

(To be clear, I don't think Cheney gets more than 348 votes as a third-party candidate either.)

xpost Ha.. I love the comments section on that, riffing that it was DeSantis who tipped off the DOJ on the Mar-a-Lago docs

y'all are assuming she doesn't just switch parties and make the 35-40 of the most obnoxious columnists/ pundits alive wet their pants

Friedman for one

so Dick's daughter would jump parties in this scenario to help elect Trump?

Too bad Yang already started his new party, he could throw something together with Cheney and Evan McMullin.

(i'm mostly joking but hey stranger things have happened. obviously can't see her doing this unless Biden doesn't/ can't run and the primary becomes a free for all)

xpost

y'all are assuming she doesn't just switch parties and make the 35-40 of the most obnoxious columnists/ pundits alive wet their pants

This will never, ever happen. Cheney is one of the most hard-line Rs in the country. Being anti-Trump is literally the only thing separating her from the rest of the slavering horde.

being anti-Trump makes her virtually unelectable as a Republican. if she wants to be in elected office again she’ll have to move to the Acela corridor and/or become a Democrat

Ten years from now, assuming we haven't descended into some form of white supremacy/Christo-fascism by then, Republicans will be all, "Donald who?"

This is very, very good news, not just because it'll help solidify the Democrats' Senate majority, but because Ron Johnson is a rancid, melting turd:

In new Marquette Law School Poll, 51% of registered WI voters support Democrat Mandela Barnes, 44% support Republican Ron Johnson in US Senate race. In June @mulawpoll, it was Barnes 46% and Johnson 44%. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 17, 2022

Ten years from now, assuming we haven't descended into some form of white supremacy/Christo-fascism by then, Republicans will be all, "Donald who?"

No way, they’re going to deify him like Reagan.

My money is on a Bush-like disavowal.

Republicans will be all, "Donald who?"

hope you're right but i just can't currently get there from here

anyway, i'd be shocked if Liz isn't already taking meetings with Dem strategerists at the very least

I don't think historical precedent is much of a guide for how Trump will be viewed in future

Cheney seems like she's gonna have a nice career giving speeches to companies which lean Republican for tax/regulatory reasons but hire mostly college grads who, last I checked, don't much like Trump either

Because we'll be dead. xpost

Dobbs + inflation moderating/gas prices coming down looking to be pretty significant tide turn for Ds

passing the climate bill too, since it **finally** gives the Dems something significant that they can point to and say it never would've happened had they not won those 2 Senate seats in GA

Cheney = Instant MSNBC contributor

The Cheney & Psaki Show

Republicans lost their opportunity for “Donald who?” years ago. The great mistake for many of us was imagining there would be enough of them who wanted an off ramp.

Well, he's gonna die some day. With any luck, some day soon.

Trump dying would be the best thing for everyone, absolutely everyone

I think Mittens sorta pulled it off, but there's no less popular position in US politics than the anti-Trump Republican. And Mitt is almost certainly the last of that breed for a long time. If Cheney wants to get serious about continuing in Congress she should become one of those Manchin/Sinema type Democrats. idk if that could win in Wyoming but if Manchin can win in WV who knows. and as we've seen getting someone in 'enemy' territory is kinda the only way Dems can make the math work sometimes, given how badly the deck is stacked against them.

She might get some traction in Wyoming as an independent. Can't see her winning there as a Democrat.

all these people are ghouls

If she tried to switch parties her father would shoot her in the face.

wyoming will never ever vote for a democrat, not within 3 generations after bill clinton

The last Dem presidential nominee to win Wyoming: LBJ.

Lol unperson

Somebody’s running for President

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/pence-jan-6-committee-testify-00052381

He'll get 3480 votes.

maybe he'll run on hanging himself

“If there was an invitation to participate, I would consider it,” Pence told a packed room at the New England Council and Saint Anselm College’s “Politics & Eggs” event on Wednesday morning.

idgi is he a politic or an egg?

“ In fact, the former vice president, who is typically reticent to talk about his experience on Jan. 6, 2021 — when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol to disrupt the counting of Electoral Votes and chanted “hang Mike Pence” — seemed uncharacteristically open to talking about it down the line, perhaps in the memoir he referenced that is scheduled to be released just after November’s midterm elections.”

That “perhaps” is the writer winking

James Carville: “The problem the Republican Party has is, they got really stupid people that vote in their primaries. And … really stupid people demand to have really stupid leaders. That’s where the Republican Party is now,” he said.

that's it in a nutshell

fascist != stupid. Carville is a waste

Carville's a relic
his wife Mary Matalin changed her party registration to libertarian in 2016 lol

Anyone who proposes interviewing James Carville about politics in 2022 should be fired on the spot. That said, he's not wrong. Republican primary voters are stupid. They're fascists too, of course, but they're stupid first. And it's okay to admit it, to call them stupid to their faces, and laugh at them when they talk.

And the leaders aren't necessarily stupid, they're just willing to pander to the stupid masses.

Not defending Carville, on principle. But there is a base-level ignorance — or a level of ignorance in the base — that's pretty significant. It's a dimness about the world in general coupled with evangelical suspicion of education and knowledge as corrupting influences. And of course a tremendous amount of entitlement. Proudly stupid, defiantly stupid. Smuggling-ivermectin-into-the-ICU stupid.

Republicans are stupid.

But also, shhhhhh don't tell D leaning voters about certain compromises in a just passed bill ---

The two biggest benefits for seniors in the IRA are the Medicare negotiation of certain high-cost prescription drugs, and the $2,000 out-of-pocket cap. But while price negotiations technically start next year, no consumer will see the benefit until the new prices begin in 2026, and even then on only 10 drugs (another 15 are added in 2027 and 2028, rising to 20 by 2029 and subsequent years).

You could squint and maybe understand the need for a little delay in setting up a negotiation regime. There are some parameters to set up, like the benchmarks for prices and the penalties if drug companies refuse to deal. Maybe you have to train negotiators. But none of that can possibly explain the three-year delay between the beginning of negotiation and the realization of price discounts for seniors. To be crass, it means that substantial numbers of seniors living now will not be alive when the reduction in certain prescription drug prices is realized.

https://prospect.org/health/prescription-drug-price-reforms-wont-happen-for-years/

well it gives the pharma industry time to elect a different president

i also wouldn’t be surprised if that short list of drugs includes a handful whose exclusivity is going to run out shortly after the negotiation period opens

It also means that if and when the law actually leads to lower Rx prices for normal people, no voter except for Ezra Klein’s third cousin will connect it to the IRA.

It could also be one of those fun situations where in 6 years, the cost of a certain Rx has gone up 75%, due to the unavoidable conditions of life sucking so badly and things always getting worse. But without the IRA, the cost would have gone up 125%. Triumph

good morning!

lol these people will lie about every single thing, whether it matters or not

EXCLUSIVE: I’ve obtained audio from the Cheney campaign of the concession voicemail Rep. Liz Cheney’s left for Harriet Hageman last night.

The audio contradicts the narrative Hageman gave on Hannity tonight that she “didn’t address any kind of concession or anything else.” https://t.co/SZTxyyEmTn pic.twitter.com/LodE9YVVIW

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) August 18, 2022