ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

The UN nuclear watchdog has called for an immediate end to all military action near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after it was hit by shelling, causing one of the reactors to shut down and creating a “very real risk of a nuclear disaster”.

There’s a statement from the head of the org that mentioned a 30% figure here:

The @CBSNews report was filmed 8 weeks into the war. Things have changed. ANY info to be misused by certain entities in an antiUkraine context while a genocidal war is being perpetrated on #Ukraine by Russia in a terrorist state fashion, is evil & puts blood on their hands. pic.twitter.com/bfwvBYPHfB

— Blue Yellow for Ukraine 🇱🇹🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@BlueYellowUKR) August 6, 2022

This is a good thread on the CBS thing, which mirrors a lot of what was said about the earlier Amnesty report.

It is at best, deeply irresponsible for CBS and Amnesty to make these claims without rigorous evidence. This mirrors a lot of unsupported rumor I hear primarily from those without a background on Ukraine. https://t.co/JC2NdhGmVd

— Jack Margolin (@Jack_Mrgln) August 6, 2022

Allegations of misuse of supplies / breaches of international law should be published, even / especially in the middle of a war but they need to be rigorously researched, tightly reported, have that reporting communicated in a responsible way and have a plan in place for countering malign propaganda misinterpretation and misuse. CBS and, more importantly Amnesty, have fallen short at every stage.

Amnesty does have an important role to play in outlining how weapons from one region / conflict show up to fuel other unrelated ones but Rovera’s contribution here is mystifying.

You know, only about 30% of their reporting makes to air. Nobody knows where any of their news is going. https://t.co/ySLQPghS3O

— SK Media🇺🇦🌻 (@SpaghettiKozak) August 8, 2022

It's good to see that guns are not falling into the wrong hands.

Just going through this on the Ukraine/Russian grain deal. Seems good.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/who-are-winners-black-sea-grain-deal

Sat down for another discussion on the course of the war with Ryan Evans. We discuss the possibility of an inflection point in the conflict, the shift of focus to the south, and Russia's continued manpower woes. Tune in if interested. @WarOnTheRocks https://t.co/P7seYerIsG

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) August 8, 2022

Trade union and human rights activist Pavel Lisyansky explains why Russia's presence in the Donbas has proved a disaster for the labor movement, and why defending human and labor rights sometimes goes hand in hand https://t.co/eMxVpRdCo9

— European Network in Solidarity with Ukraine (@EuropeanWith) August 7, 2022

Article describing how Ukrainian industries are faring as the war goes on: agriculture, steel, distilleries, and more.

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-russia-war-impact-ukraine-global-trade-goals/?srnd=premium-europe

Kubrakov added capacity at existing border posts and is opening two new crossings on Ukraine’s frontiers with both Poland and Romania. Last month, he negotiated a deal with the EU so truckers only have to clear customs once. A second ferry went into operation across the Danube to carry more grain to the Romanian port of Constanta, and fuel back.

A defunct railway line through Moldova is also being reopened to feed traffic, while the river port of Reni - all but abandoned after the 1991 Soviet collapse - has returned to its 11 million metric ton per year capacity, from just 200,000 tons before the war, according to Kubrakov.

That’s got Ukraine’s exports to about 30% of what they were, and there’s more to come, said Kubrakov. Yet it’s nowhere near enough to get the economy out of intensive care, and time may not be on Ukraine’s side.

Much more in there...

⚡️ Russia is using a nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine as an army base. The allegations we are receiving directly from Enerhodar, the town adjacent to the nuclear plant, speak volumes about the terrible impact of Russia’s militarization is having on civilians.

— Amnesty International (@amnesty) August 11, 2022

LITTLE SIGN OF KHERSON OFFENSIVE: There’s little sign yet on the outskirts of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson of an imminent counteroffensive.

“[I]n trenches less than a mile from Russia’s positions in the area, Ukrainian soldiers hunker down from an escalating onslaught of artillery, with little ability to advance,” The Washington Post’s LOVEDAY MORRIS, LIZ SLY, DALTON BENNETT and ANASTACIA GALOUCHKA reported. “Residents who have fled villages in the Kherson region have described Russian forces moving in reinforcements, and officials have eyed those troop movements warily.”

“They’ve dug in,” OLEKSANDR VILKUL, head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih, told the Post. “We know that they are trying to fortify their positions. The enemy has significantly increased its artillery along the entire [60-mile front] line.”

The Ukrainians lack the requisite artillery and armored vehicles needed to make a push, per the Post, giving Russian forces the chance to regroup and build up, while Kyiv struggles to pay its soldiers due to slowly arriving Western funds .

NatSec Daily wants to know: Is the Kherson counteroffensive a ruse, perhaps intended to divert Russia’s attention away from Ukraine's east? Likely not, but we’ve been wondering why Kyiv has so loudly telegraphed its intentions.

KEEP A LID ON IT: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY cautioned the country's defense officials against speaking to the press amid fears they may be leaking military tactics in their fight against Russia, The Guardian reported.

"If you want to generate loud headlines, that’s one thing — it’s frankly irresponsible. If you want victory for Ukraine, that is another thing, and you should be aware of your responsibility for every word you say about our state’s plans for defense or counter attacks," Zelenskyy said.

The warning came as two Ukrainian officials told POLITICO that Ukraine was responsible for an attack on a Russian airbase in Crimea. The Kremlin claims that explosions were the result of accidentally detonated munitions while Ukraine's defense ministry denied responsibility for the blasts.

U.S. and UN officials have been concerned by recent fighting near nuclear facilities, prompting Russia to reject calls for a demilitarized zone near a Ukrainian nuclear facility.

EVACUATION FROM NEAR NUCLEAR PLANT: Fears of a radiation leak at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant led Ukrainian officials to plan for evacuations of nearby residents.

“The power plant is not just in enemy hands, but in the hands of untrained specialists who can cause a tragedy,” Ukrainian Interior Minister DENYS MONASTYRSKYI told The Wall Street Journal’s YAROSLAV TROFIMOV , adding that the access of Ukrainian personnel has been restricted in some areas. “The level of danger is the highest. It’s hard to even imagine the scale of the tragedy if Russian activities continue there. We have to prepare for all scenarios now.”

Concerns are mounting about the fate of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, equipped with six reactors. Russia rejected a United Nations plea to demilitarize the area around Zaporizhzhia as the facility gets rocked with more shelling . Both Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of striking the plant.

Interesting series of threads about a 140-page first-person account, originally published on the Russian equivalent of Facebook, written by a contract paratrooper who was part of the initial Russian invasion force from the Crimea into Kherson. So far some unsurprising accounts of disorganization, shoddy or nonexistent equipment, and unsympathetic commanders:

1/ On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. This 🧵 highlights the first-person account of Russian paratrooper Pavel Filatyev, who was in the invasion force that entered Ukraine from Crimea, captured Kherson and unsuccessfully fought to reach Mykolaiv. pic.twitter.com/p4MYkaEmvM

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) August 18, 2022

Speaking of Crimea, BBC World Service now reporting new series of explosions there

http://anchor.fm/ukraine-without-hype/episodes/Episode-28-An-Injury-to-One-is-an-Injury-to-All-w-Vladyslav-Starodubtsev-e1mhvcb

There's a news update in the beginning which is easily skipped, but about 10-15 mins in, they start the discussion about the labor law changes:

Then, we speak with Vladyslav Starodubtsev, a Democratic Socialist activist in the organization Sotsialnyi Rukh, or Social Movement. We discuss the new changes to Ukraine's labor laws that severely hurt worker's rights in a time when maintaining stability is even more important than ever. What sacrifices are actually necessary and useful in war and who should bear them?

More on the labor laws and Ukraine's economic future:

http://www.greenleft.org.au/content/ukraines-recovery-must-benefit-people-west-has-other-ideas

As of April 1, roughly five million citizens applied for one-time income loss benefits — but as of the end of May, the registered number of unemployed people was 308,000, which is 16 times lower.

The main risks are that privatisation and reduction of civil servants may destroy protected jobs, and the newly created ones will be precarious. There is also a threat that infrastructure projects will simply enrich foreign corporations, and that the Ukrainian economy will retain its mostly extractive nature instead of developing new innovative industries.

Ukraine faces a colossal task in dealing with huge destruction and re-launching industry, but neoliberal policies are not suitable for this. A strategy based on government intervention in the economy and the financing of employment programs is needed. This, in turn, requires policies of redistribution through taxation and the confiscation of surplus wealth from Ukraine’s richest people. This would be a concrete expression of Ukraine’s long-promised policy of de-oligarchisation, which has, it seems, faded from the political agenda since the beginning of the war.

This is a worrying assessment at the six month mark.

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-146-the-russia-ukraine?

This is the first report to conclusively identify to high confidence 21 facilities engaged in the filtration of Ukrainian civilians,” says Nathaniel Raymond, a coleader of the Humanitarian Research Lab and lecturer at Yale's Jackson School of Global Affairs. An earlier intelligence report had previously identified 18 suspected filtration centers. “We can't estimate based on geospatial and OSINT alone how many are in detention and how many have come through. That's not methodologically possible. However, we do have a sense that the scale here is covering an oblast, the equivalent of a state.”

same report:

Though there are no clear numbers for how many Ukrainians have been forcibly relocated, the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights estimated that by June 25, 2022, some 1.7 million people had already reached Russia. Many experts have described these tactics as genocidal.

Painful concessions will have to be made if we are to see an end to this war.

https://i.imgur.com/vqQfEZf.png

All kinds of confused reports but it appears Ukraine has decided to do something big in the Kherson area today.

I remembered that I wanted to translate the instruction manual to possible questions that people distributing russian humanitarian aid might get.
So here it is. https://t.co/ZkfmsLbERY pic.twitter.com/MqZh9diI3i

— Kamepin UA🇺🇦 (@KamepinUa) August 29, 2022

Q: Is Russia here forever?
A: Yes, you do not have to fear, the Russian Federation will not retreat.
Note: in the case of mention of previously liberated territories that were retreated from, they were not part of the special military operation.

Q: I don't want to live in Russia.
A: You are simply scared. Russia is a county of big opportunities with a great history.
Note: Inform the Military Police or other authorities keeping order.

Q: Does Zelensky really hate us?
A: Zelensky does not decide anything, all decisions are done by curators from USA.
Note: Remind them that he is a drug addict.

Lattst for @opendemocracyru thank you @te_rowley @valeria_wants https://t.co/u4fkrPE9T3

— katia semchuk (@katiasemchuk) September 1, 2022

Have they acted on this threat today?

The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea.
It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk.
BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 7, 2022

Intercepted Russian phone call describing situation in Kherson as Ukraine counter-attacks:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldier-kherson-casualties-counteroffensive-ukraine-1740662

Also news of a surprise attack in northeast near Kharkiv:

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/sep/07/ukraine-launches-surprise-counterattack-kharkiv-region-russia

Ukrainian offensive in the northeast picking up speed:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/09/russia-kharkiv-reinforcements-ukraine-counterattack

Yeah it's been a crazy week. Been following this more than other things in the world, shall we say.

that phone call is gnarly

Clearly not as rosy for the Russians in the Kherson area as they paint it in the Russian telegram channels.

As we find from this intercepted call, there is constant HIMARS shelling, jets leave to never come back, and bridges are under permanent danger of strikes and explosions. pic.twitter.com/FPmoxWvE3h

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 6, 2022

And now it's reported that Russia is buying war shit from North Korea, which doesn't seem good.. their technology is probably 1978ish

Vintage

The 70s materiel has such a warmer analog sound.

all analog rockets, all the time

Ya, that digital stuff just doesn’t have the same sound when you drop it and run away.

I'm trying not to lap up every rumor circulating around Telegram, but the main challenge in establishing a clear picture of the situation in Kharkiv appears to be that Russian lines are collapsing faster than Ukraine can even advance and clear liberated areas. Astonishing.

— Tobias Schneider (@tobiaschneider) September 9, 2022

Laughed at comment that Ukrainians may be in danger of running out of flags.

And now it's reported that Russia is buying war shit from North Korea, which doesn't seem good.. their technology is probably 1978ish

times report on this says: american intelligence told us this. we have no proof. associated press says: the pentagon tells us it hasn't actually happened. we have no proof. declassified report: well, this could happen. internet commentators, snorting derisively: huh, imagine, buying military equipment from north korea, what are they gonna get, muskets or something? that'll be no match for our azov boys and their javelins.

north korea is a respected arms dealer, i'll have you know. a real menace to global peace. you run a military first economy and put all your best minds on rockets and weapons systems, you come up with some amazing stuff. and then there are stockpiles to run through. the news is that rather than 1978 the problem is that they reportedly want to buy 1940s basically technology.

i'm not a military expert, but this seems good:

#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️ #Kupiansk #charkow
Prosiliście o aktualizacje animację - poprawiłem i uzupełniłem - co do Izjum oraz Oskil- czekam na potwierdzenia. pic.twitter.com/UgnWe8lbB1

— Martinn (@Martinnkaaaa) September 9, 2022

(watch the animation)

Ukrainian forces seem to have seized some 3,000 sq km and going in a few days in a rapid mechanized thrust that has left Russia’s army disoriented and on the verge of a strategic debacle. There goes the theory that tanks are obsolete in modern warfare. https://t.co/XEAYdhydB2

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) September 10, 2022

Some ppl (idiots I get to see being clueless about politics) are screaming that the war has been "won" but the couple of analysts I've seen are concentrating on the battle and not going further.

BBC World Service just now reporting (to US) that Russians have bombed a dam in Zelenskyy's home area---he's quoted as saying that it is of no military importance but that many (or "millions of"?) people depend on it.

Also that he's been in "minor" car accident (CNN also has this bit already, briefly)

Useful read

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/15/they-re-mostly-after-loans

“There are no independent, objective publications in Tuva anymore. Our profession has been reduced to the level of service work, we are afraid of even a mention of the constitutionally guaranteed right to freedom of thought and expression,” the journalist Nadezhda Antufeva told Meduza. Antufeva is the founder of the newspaper Center of Asia, which came out in February 1991, making it the first independent publication in Tuva, even before the fall of the Soviet Union. She closed the publication at the end of 2019 for economic reasons. This year, the journalist gave herself a 67th birthday present, tattooing “freedom of speech” on her arm.

I'm still mad, but I feel less sorry for myself about what's happening in the US.

i missed that the other day, overall good guy Narendra Modi said some things

Challenged bluntly and publicly by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Russia would strive to stop the conflict “as soon as possible.” But then he accused Ukraine of refusing to negotiate, although Putin ordered the invasion and his troops are still occupying a large swath of Ukrainian territory.

We're following changes at the palace after the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. Get the Post Elizabeth newsletter for updates.
Putin made the remarks during an appearance with Modi in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where they are attending a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

In a stunning public rebuke, Modi told Putin: “Today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.”

The rare reproach showed the 69-year-old Russian strongman coming under extraordinary pressure from all sides. Internationally, he is facing calls to end the war not only from his traditional critics in the West, but also from Asian partners whom he cannot paint as beholden to the U.S. And at home, where he has cracked down on antiwar dissenters, he is being hammered by right-wing hawks who are infuriated over Russia’s military stumbles and are calling for a national draft.

Modi’s remark, as the two leaders sat in front of journalists and cameras, came a day after Putin acknowledged he had heard “concerns and questions” about the war from Chinese President Xi Jinping at the same conference. Xi, however, did not voice his questions or concerns publicly.

Responding to Modi, Putin said: “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, about your concerns that you constantly express. We will do our best to stop this as soon as possible. Only, unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its abandonment of the negotiation process, declared that it wants to achieve its goals by military means, as they say, ‘on the battlefield.’ Nevertheless, we will always keep you informed of what is happening there.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/16/kherson-ukraine-russia-war-putin/

Alla Pugacheva, the single most famous Soviet and post Soviet pop diva, an icon across the former Soviet space and particularly among the generation of Putin supporters speaks out clearly and simply against the war. This is an important count-down moment.

— Arkady Ostrovsky (@ArkadyOstrovsky) September 18, 2022

Russian nationalists said to be pressing Putin to fuck up Ukraine infrastructure some more---like the xpost strike on that big dam---and this

Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant struck
Reuters has more information on the Russian strike on the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in the early hours of Monday:

Russian troops struck the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region early on Monday but its reactors have not been damaged and are working normally, Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said.

A blast took place 300 metres away from the reactors and damaged power plant buildings shortly after midnight, Energoatom said in a statement. The attack has also damaged a nearby hydroelectric power plant and transmission lines.

Looks like they wouldn't want to mess it up too badly, if still care about commercial value, breadbasket and so on---"a fine piece of real estate," says President Trump.

Based on what Putin says about his goals and motives, retaining Ukraine's commercial value rates far below the imperative to expand Russia's greatness and fulfill her historic destiny. Experience shows it is always wise to believe an autocrat when they tell you their goals and motives, however crazy they may sound.

RIGA, Latvia — Russia pushed ahead Tuesday with plans to annex occupied regions of Ukraine, as Moscow’s puppet authorities set dates to stage referendums on joining Russia — moves that could dramatically escalate the war.

Officials in the self-declared separatist “republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk, and in the occupied region of Kherson in southern Ukraine, announced “referendums” to be held from Friday to Tuesday. Such votes, which are illegal under Ukrainian and international law, have been widely derided by Western officials as a sham and merely a precursor to annexation.

After annexing the territories, Moscow probably would declare Ukrainian attacks on those areas to be assaults on Russia itself, analysts warned, a potential trigger for a general military mobilization or a dangerous escalation, such as the use of a nuclear weapon.

...

Moscow’s proxy leader in Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, appealed to Russia for help organizing the referendum, highlighting the thin veneer of pretense that local officials were in control. Denis Pushilin, the puppet leader in Donetsk, said police and members of his administration’s “electoral commission” would knock on people’s doors and “invite” them to vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/20/russia-referendum-annexation-luhansk-donetsk-kherson-ukraine/

On the mobilization effort.

Perhaps a useful addition - mobilization & stop-loss might help Moscow stem the deteriorating quantity of the force, but not the deteriorating quality of the force & its morale. Having used up its best equipment, officers, & personnel, I don't see how this can be recovered.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) September 21, 2022

was just hearing that Russians on mandatory conscription in Ukraine, which is supposed to be a 12 month contract now can't go home and refuseniks will face a 10 yr prison sentence. That won't be good for morale.