2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

http://i.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/2004/1101041227_400.jpg

loooooooooooooool

uh yeah carter reagan bush clinton all real tough guys

Uh, except for Carter, yeah. Maybe not real tough guys, but perceived tough guys, and certainly perceived to be the toughest guy in the GE in that election cycle. And yes, Bill Clinton was considered more of your tough guy "Daddy" than Bob Dole.

Whereas Barack is like your cool uncle who lets you crash on his couch whenever your Dad is being, like, a total toolbag.

i dunno man, ross perot was pretty tough

In their own ways, I think both HRC and Obama are exceptions to that rule, btw. Obama can win without being the toughest guy in the GE (tho I think he'll lose to McCain). HRC can lose while being the perceived toughest gal in the GE (and I think she'll lose to McCain.

http://earthhopenetwork.net/bush%20art/time_cover_bush.jpg

is this real?

yes

yah i feel yr pain clinton and that wouldnt be prudent ghwb were considered tough WHAAAATEVEEEER try again la times

old ass shining city on the hill reagan and im a uniter not a divider gwb can be added to the list

daniel from whence the mccain boner

it's the portrait of bush on the cover of time up there that i can't believe is real -- it is really really bad!

http://www.hermeswashere.com/images/TimeCover_BushResigns.jpg

i dont remember this happening

OK romney endorsing live now.

i like that he's an "american" revolutionary, too, it helps all those absent-minded people with american flags on their front porches who find it difficult to remember what country they live in

A-W-K-W-A-R-D

live?? the last thing they did was some pre-game concert in milwaukee!

that would be so awz if bush resigned and gave the big thumbs up on the way out

like "i know guys, i fucked up! good times ahead!"

"no hard feelins, right stretch?"

The "tough guy" thing makes a certain amount of sense. Except that it's wrong. Might be more accurate to say that America picks the father figure that it wants - or thinks it needs (I'm speaking historically and don't intend to slight Hillary, who could change this dynamic). So victory does entail winning a masculinity contest, but you'd have to be an idiot to say that masculinity = nothing more than toughness.

daniel from whence the mccain boner

I don't like McCain at all. But I think he will be the favorite (slightly, perhaps) to win the GE once the conventions are over.

why? cause he's a rootin tootin tough dude + the press loves him? he doesn't have much else going for him

none of us has the slightest idea what politically suicidal things Hillary's desperation, McCain's bluster, or Obama's Jesusness might cause them to say in the next 8 months.

Obama's Jesusness

lol

both dem candidates are more charismatic than john kerry, people have largely turned against the iraq conflict since '04, mccain is HELLA old, republican base is pretty shaky on mccain's qualities, huge dem voter turnout in primaries, republicans routed in midterm elections ... bad bad signs for mccain dude

im scared of a mccain presidency and i dont rule it out but the balls not really in his court right now

cause he's a rootin tootin tough dude + the press loves him

Yes.

Deej OTM. It's a mistake to discount McCain (appeals well outside trad Republican base, well-respected, comes across tough, sharp and honorable, war record, white guy, etc.), but he's got a very tough fite ahead of him.

That and that McCain has the "straight-talking maverick" label going for him (which may be a canard in reality, but voters love the image). Also, he'll peel off independents and Democratic moderates (especially those who are a bit hawkish).

I'm not saying McCain is a heavy favorite, but I think he's smart money.

I'm not so sure that voters love the "straight talk" image, like Joe Scarborough said it didn't exactly work for him in Michigan.

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021408dailyupdategraph1.gif

Like I've said, McCain's problem has always been getting to the GE (because he's hated by lots of the GOP's core constituency, precisely because he hasn't always followed the party line), but he's in much better shape -- for exactly the same reasons -- once he gets to a GE.

Daniel, what do you think of the line "John McCain has sold out his principles in exchange for his party's nomination," or the notion that he's a respected figure fronting an effort to smuggle the GOP party line back into the White House? It's a strong charge, sure, but there's some support for that argument to be had.

That and that McCain has the "straight-talking maverick" label going for him (which may be a canard in reality, but voters love the image)

This is indeed a canard, Daniel, since the GOP doesn't trust him and any independent who might have voted for him has read the paper trail of compromises – like today's SHAMEFUL waterboarding vote.

Elmo: I think that will be helpful against McCain. And I do think we ought to charge directly at his perceived strengths.

Alfred: You're right. But people generally vote on vague notions, not specific policy positions. The challenge will be to cast McCain in a new -- and negative -- light. Given that McCain's real constituency is the MSM, that won't be easy.

so far "straight talk" has yielded one phrase that the Dem nominees are already beating McCain over the head with (100 years in Iraq) and another that they'll probably be using soon (I don't know much about the economy better get crackin' and read Greenspan's book)

Meanwhile, who benefits and who suffers if this guy runs as a third-party candidate?

mccain cant help himself w/that 100 years in iraq stuff - its not straight talk its just a stubborn old man duh

the "100 years in iraq" thing is really overblown

I mean, regardless of who becomes president we will have troops there for a very long time

mccain's support is not only shaky it's schizophrenic. among his supporters are people who are still enthusiastically pro-war, AND otherwise moderate-to-conservative types who are wholly disenchanted with the war. he skates on reputation but none of his candidacy makes much sense -- how long can this completely impossible coalition hold together based on personality?

i'm not saying it's going to be easy beating him cos yeah the press has a hardon for the guy, but there's a strong whiff of giuliani about him.

daniel's right. McCain's 'frame' is up in the air with the gop confusion and it's a matter of who defines it forcefully enough and quickly enough for any of those semi-abstractions to make any difference.

how long can this completely impossible coalition hold together based on personality?

Through his inauguration.

im quite certain that bloomberg is just manipulating the media into raising his public profile as no one would ever in a million years actually vote for him - the nyc mayoralty has a term limit of 2 you know

"we're in a tough spot, my friends, but we gotta just grit our teeth and soldier it out, shit will happen and people will suffer and there's nothing we can do about it. so vote for me."

Bloomberg is a police-state-friendly social "liberal." I think he'd make McCain easier pickings for Obama, but I also don't see him running now.

one thing that doesnt bode well for mccain is that he was left for dead just a few months ago - then everyone realized they really hated the rest of the guys to they gave him a second shot - ie its not love

daniel are you trying to scare us into fundraising or something? i think mccain is the best shot the GOP could have fielded this time around, but c'mon the deck is stacked against him pretty badly, and his liabilities are big.

kerry 08 could beat mccain 08