Democratic (Party) Direction

Not that I want to relitigate 2016 election again, but although the narrative was "WE CAN'T AFFORD TO NOT VOTE BLUE" that election, to many voters, the stakes probably felt a lot lower to them personally, because:

1) Most Dem voters thought Trump was done for after "grab em by the pussy", and that Comey's memo was too little too late. and once he lost, the Republican party would be damaged and struggle except of course at mid-term elections.

2) Many voters thought Trump was just saying things to get elected, and that he'd be much more watered-down in office if he got elected (I personally subscribe to the "believe who people say they are" school, but hey)

3) Some (very privileged, accelerationist) voters figured that even if Trump did get elected, the maximum damage that would be done would be another conservative justice replacing Scalia, and this would make the Democratic party capitulate to more progressive candidates...or burn down our institutions so we could start over. Whereas the current SCOTUS scenario is now causing the party and many of its voters to dig in even more on the "blue no matter who" and "electability" bullshit than before. It's probably going to be harder to win support for progressive candidates outside of the House now.

4) Prognosis looked good for Dems to either take the Senate 51-49, or have a 50-50 deadlock, so people felt like if somehow Trump got elected, he'd have a hard time confirming justices as removing the filibuster would have been more difficult and confirmations even more so. and then we got far fewer seats.

Enough people believe one of these four things or more, they don't feel bad staying home, voting third party, voting Trump, etc. because someone else will pick up the slack. Someone that wasn't being investigated by the FBI might have avoided the 2 point bump Comey caused, sure. but going by early polling to say Bernie would have most definitely won, well - polls look very different when they're 'potential candidates' vs when someone actually gets the nomination.

I remember being very anxious about the Romney-Obama election, purely because I thought the Affordable Care Act was gone if that happened. I was less stressed on election day 2016 because I thought it was essentially going to be a victory lap.

Election Day 2020, I was doubled over with anxiety and I wonder if any election will ever feel normal again.

Chase vs. WelLs Fargo was apt in terms of geography (and minimal difference in choice implied if intended).)

that was indeed intended! thank you!

Will meant rich democrats would have voted for Trump over Bernie, not that rich democrats went Trump in 2016

― symsymsym, Monday, July 11, 2022 9:20 AM (fifty-one minutes ago)

that was my understanding of Will's post as well ... so I was ???? when Aimless phrased it as rich democrats voting Trump.

I think a lot of the Republicans (current or former) I know personally who are Never Trumpers now may have, at the time, voted for Trump over Bernie. they will post screed after screed about how corrupt Trump is and then talk about how AOC is killing the Democratic party and how Dems need a moderate candidate to earn their support.

most of these folk I know are businessmen or well-off so....it scans that yeah, Bernie might have lost some votes over $$$$$ and "socialism".

(I think I understand now; sorry for being so dense and reading haphazardly. 'Yeah' was to agree about what happened to Clinton and the rest was to suggest what might have happened if Sanders made it past the primaries. If there needs to be a broader coalition to move forward from the establishment candidate, then that question might be relevant in the future?)

A surprising number of people I talked to after the 2016 election voted for Trump after having voted for Obama twice.

i make no claims to the people I know being representative of America at large. Like, no.

A surprising number of people I talked to after the 2016 election voted for Trump after having voted for Obama twice.

I do too.

I mean, there weren't enough to move the needle, but yeah, more than zero, which is what I would have thought.

Will meant rich democrats would have voted for Trump over Bernie

yes, I misread will's intended meaning. thank you symsymsym,

The thing about the Bernie would have won stuff is that it assumes a world in which the Democratic Party accepts him as the nominee, tells all their rich donors to get behind him, does lots of reassuring messaging, etc, vs a world where, idk, some centrist billionaire launches a third-party candidacy with the silent blessing of party leadership.

The thing about the Bernie would have won stuff is that it assumes a world in which the Democratic Party accepts him as the nominee, tells all their rich donors to get behind him, does lots of reassuring messaging, etc

yeah ... it speaks to the post earlier in this thread about how "the perfect is the enemy of the good" doesn't get applied to candidates to the left of what the party's perceived center is.

Huh. I honestly thought the Obama to Trump voters were mythical. Shows my lack of imagination.
― Antifa Sandwich Artist (Boring, Maryland), Monday, July 11, 2022 2:09 PM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I do too.

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, July 11, 2022 2:09 PM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

One explanation I've heard for this is that there's a low-information, racially conservative Democratic voter 10-15 years ago who nonetheless votes for Obama because Obama himself doesn't talk explicitly about race all that much (outside of the Jeremiah Wright speech, which he carefully puts in this universalizing "we all have families that we're stuck with" frame). Obama doesn't talk about race because the very fact of his being African American is enough to attract a multiracial liberal coalition, and because talking about it too much is a liability that would turn off those racially conservative voters.

But then two things happen: 1) Over the course of Obama's presidency, the right weaponizes his race in a way that makes it easier for low-information voters to clearly see Democrats as the party that wants to help nonwhite people, and 2) The historic nature of his presidency and the makeup of his political coalition makes Democrats more comfortable talking explicitly about race than they were before he came on the scene.

So by 2016, those low-information, racially conservative voters are no longer as sympathetic to a Democratic candidate, especially one who is using language like "systemic racism" in speeches as Hillary did, and maybe feel like the way Trump talks is more on their wavelength. Plus, they probably don't feel like Obama helped them much materially, anyway, so they don't have much to lose by switching teams.

Cribbing most of that from the political scientist Michael Tesler; see, for instance, this interview with Chris Hayes.

Huh. I honestly thought the Obama to Trump voters were mythical. Shows my lack of imagination.

― Antifa Sandwich Artist (Boring, Maryland)

it turns out a lot of people just vote for the candidate they find more personally appealing

in practice this generally means "not the woman"

sorry jumping into a politics thread and saying stupid shit is my usual routine but it's a crappy one, what are people talking about in here? i haven't been keeping up.

But this shit is infuriating:

“Anybody could be doing a better job than what they’re doing right now,” said Clifton Heard, a 44-year-old maintenance specialist in Foley, Ala.

An independent, he said he voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but is disillusioned over the state of the economy and the spiraling price of gas, and is now reconsidering Mr. Trump.

“I understand that they’ve got a tough job,” he said of Mr. Biden’s administration. “He wasn’t prepared to do the job.”

"I understand the last guy beat the hell out of me. The new one's not moving fast enough to heal me. Fuck it -- I'll go with the guy who beat me."

“Anybody could be doing a better job than what they’re doing right now,” said Clifton Heard, a 44-year-old maintenance specialist in Foley, Ala.

An independent, he said he voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but is disillusioned over the state of the economy and the spiraling price of gas, and is now reconsidering Mr. Trump.

“I understand that they’ve got a tough job,” he said of Mr. Biden’s administration. “He wasn’t prepared to do the job.”

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

IDK, what do you think, he should trust Biden more? Things are really fucked up, they're getting worse every day, and all the Democrats have to offer is "You'll vote for us if you know what's good for you". I don't trust them. I don't believe them. I'm not going to vote for Trump, but I didn't vote for Biden in 2020. We deserve better choices than Trump and Biden, but if all you give people are shitty choices, well, I can't really blame them for making shitty choices in that situation.

It depends upon what someone thinks is a shitty choice. Like this guy seems to care about gas prices rather than the Supreme Court. If you care about the Supreme Court then you vote for the electable candidate who will put non-conservative justices on when the opportunity arises. Otherwise you're voting as a form of self-expression.

Not only that, Alabama? Just like most of us, it doesn't even matter if he votes for Trump or Biden. What's to be infuriated over? Who this guy votes for literally doesn't matter. Alabama is a single-party state controlled by white supremacist Christian dominionists where poverty is endemic and social resources are nearly nonexistent. The surprising thing isn't that he's changing his vote from Biden to Trump, it's that he's still bothering to vote at all. That after all this time he still believes that _his vote matters_ is so sad and depressing.

It depends upon what someone thinks is a shitty choice. Like this guy seems to care about gas prices rather than the Supreme Court. If you care about the Supreme Court then you vote for the electable candidate who will put non-conservative justices on when the opportunity arises. Otherwise you're voting as a form of self-expression.

― F'kin Magnetometers, how do they work? (President Keyes)

I don't know if I "care about the Supreme Court". I care that the nation-state I'm subject to has unilaterally declared that it has dominion over my body. I don't really believe that voting for Democrats is going to change that. I think the system is getting the results it's _intended_ to get. Yeah, there are a lot of victims caping for their abusers in America right now. And what? The victims are _stupid_ for doing this? Great. Good. That helps.

ok it's legit to not believe in electoralism at all, but that's not really something the democratic party (subject of thread) is going to give up on

ok it's legit to not believe in electoralism at all, but that's not really something the democratic party (subject of thread) is going to give up on

― F'kin Magnetometers, how do they work? (President Keyes)

Sure. I'm not really so much engaging with the Democratic Party, I just checked in because there are always a lot of posts in this thread and honestly, I am just curious as to what people are talking about and why! And right now it's this guy Clifton Heard? So from a standpoint of believing in electoralism, does who Clifton Heard votes for matter? If so, why?

It's the mythical "white working class"

The thing about the Bernie would have won stuff is that it assumes a world in which the Democratic Party accepts him as the nominee, tells all their rich donors to get behind him, does lots of reassuring messaging, etc, vs a world where, idk, some centrist billionaire launches a third-party candidacy with the silent blessing of party leadership.

I think a third party Bloomberg run (or someone like him) would have definitely been a potential threat. TBH I'm 50-50 on whether the Democratic Party's leadership would actually want that to happen and support it though, as it would really not be healthy for their own survival as a party. That would have made the simmering left vs. liberal conflict within the party boil over completely, into a material conflict with mainstream visibility. And I think Bernie and his campaign would have been very willing to point the finger at any tacit support for that third party run coming from within his own party.

So I dunno if that run would really have happened or made that much of a difference... But if it did and it let Trump win, I think that'd be the official crackup moment for the Democratic Party. A whole new formation would have been needed at that point. And in my honest opinion, the Democratic party needs to be replaced yesterday

...Anyway, all total hypothetical counterfactual BS but it's fun to think about.

On a different note, local-level shakeups are happening among lower level party structures, including this one in Rhode Island.

And there are robust insurgent/reform movements from the left at the county level in both Brooklyn and Queens.

It's the mythical "white working class"

― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux)

That's what I was wondering! See, Alfred's quote doesn't mention anywhere whether Heard is white or not. If he is white, I mean, I congratulate them, good job finding a blue-collar white man in Alabama who voted for Biden and is willing to speak on the record. Love of unions must be very strong with him. Most folks like him went Republican pretty decisively back in the '90s. The entire idea of voting for someone like Biden is, as best I can tell, pretty antithetical to most white Alabamans. So what's the implication here, for the Democratic Party to have a path forward they should focus on winning the votes of people like Heard? Can they function as a national party while doing that?

Like, this is one of my problems with the Democratic Party, is that it _is_ a national party and that structurally, local political parties are tied to the national party. So we have real estate tycoons like Ted Wheeler getting elected Portland mayor despite not having the support of most Portlanders because of his ties to the national Democratic party. Not only that, there's apparently a pretty good chance a Republican might become governor of Oregon this election, because there's a three-way race. The major political rifts in Oregon are not between Democrats and Republicans, but among people who are _not_ Republicans. But because of the electoral structure in place, Republicans are the ones who benefit, and the people of states like Oregon suffer. I'll be honest Portland genuinely needs political leadership, and with Ted Wheeler as mayor, it doesn't have it. And now we're looking at seeing that dynamic potentially replicated on a statewide level for the next four years? I don't think this is a super good thing.

thinking about this today for no reason pic.twitter.com/lrPCUX0wrS

— Primary Takes Provider (@InternetHippo) July 12, 2022

Biden went to shake McConnell’s hand but he pulled his hand back and said “psych!”

xp I looked up the article. There is no picture of Mr. Heard, and based on the context I'd say there is a fair chance he is black. The piece as a whole talks about both black and white voters, but it is reminiscent of all the hand-wringing about the loss of the "white working class" following Trump's win in 2016.

The party has always been an uneasy coalition of disparate interests. What at least some of this hand-wringing has to do with is the erosion of one of the party's main pillars of support, organized labor. It's hard to maintain that support when you ignore labor's interests and are complicit in the decimation of labor unions.

The thing about the Bernie would have won stuff is that it assumes a world in which the Democratic Party accepts him as the nominee, tells all their rich donors to get behind him, does lots of reassuring messaging, etc, vs a world where, idk, some centrist billionaire launches a third-party candidacy with the silent blessing of party leadership.

― JoeStork, Monday, July 11, 2022 3:30 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Right, because if there's anything the last 6 years have proven, it's that there's this powerful, well organized core of the democratic party that has substantial control over outcomes. I mean it's fucking amazing to me that Trump's election did not completely disabuse people of this sort of liberal media class fantasy about how politics works in this country. And I find a lot of the head scratching over Obama to Trump voters to be symptomatic of the same. Cf the fact that a "Bloomberg run" is cited as something that could have been a threat to a Bernie candidacy -- did anyone pay any attention to his campaign? I can't blame you if you missed it, all you'd have to do is blink.

Fron the way the transition and quote get set up I assume Heard is Black.

Genuine lol @ the McConnell quote.

Here's the preceding paragraph; it's ambiguously/poorly written but I also would have assumed he was Black:

Mr. Biden’s base, in 2020 and now, remains Black voters. They delivered the president a 62 percent job-approval rating — higher marks than any other race or ethnicity, age group or education level. But even among that constituency, there are serious signs of weakening. On the question of renominating Mr. Biden in 2024, slightly more Black Democratic voters said they wanted a different candidate than said they preferred Mr. Biden.

“Anybody could be doing a better job than what they’re doing right now,” said Clifton Heard, a 44-year-old maintenance specialist in Foley, Ala.

at any rate, Kate's point about the valuelessness of a presidential vote in Alabama is otm

Here's the preceding paragraph; it's ambiguously/poorly written but I also would have assumed he was Black:

― rob

it's so fucked up that they apparently aren't willing to out and out tell us he's black, no, they have to fucking leave us to figure it out from ambiguous context. his race is central to the fucking argument they're trying to make! why don't they just fucking say he's black?

i agree with clifton heard, honestly. everything he says about joe biden is 100% spot on. he's considering voting for trump? i mean, i get it, sometimes i think real real hard about self-harm myself. i'm just desperate, you know? life is hard, and shaming me for making poor choices - and i do make poor life choices, on a regular basis - just doesn't help.

It doesn't seem shocking to me that a working class person might view life and politics through the lens of their immediate economic circumstances before viewing it through the more abstract lens of race issues. The argument that Trump is bad for black people is in large part indirect via ties to covertly and sometimes openly white supremacist groups. Trump's overt racism was mostly against immigrants. Clifton Heard probably isn't having his life or personal rights immediately threatened by those groups, but he sees gas prices and grocery prices every day of his life, and whether or to what extent that's actually Biden's fault is at best difficult to explain or prove in either direction. Like I'm not voting for anyone with ties to nazis, white supremacists, antisemites, etc. but my belly is full and I don't feel the pain that much from inflation. And that's putting aside the fact that black people and other POC could be socially/culturally moderate or even conservative.

I'm voting for a Democratic president because he/she will nominate the judges and justices who most advance my causes.

And the United States is worse for Clifton Heard and me thanks to Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and ACB.

I'm voting for a Democratic president because he/she will nominate the judges and justices who most advance my causes.

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

that's awesome! you know what's best for you, and i'm totally in support of you doing that. but why does it infuriate you that clifton heard is skeptical? i mean, look, i hate to be talking about the poor guy when he's not even here - does it infuriate you that _i'm_ skeptical? that i didn't vote for Joe Biden, that I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden? If so, why? is it my _fault_ that these judges are in office? is it heard's _fault_?

i voted for clinton in 2016, in the primaries and in the general election, because, well, i thought she was the most electable candidate. now it's 2022, and i'm out as a trans woman, and clinton is saying that the democrats shouldn't support trans rights because it might lose them votes, and you know, i feel like supporting clinton was a mistake. i try to learn from my mistakes.

Depends where you live, as ever

Plus, voters like Heard are soft Dems if they think Trump will save them.

I work for a local Dem-affiliated group because to be queer in Florida under DeSantis is a rare gift.

Sure, they’re soft Dems. You don’t interview the guy who’s going to vote for Biden no matter what.

HRC may be shitty on trans issues now, but would the two or three justices she appointed have been more or less likely to uphold trans rights than Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett?

The problem is that her lack of conviction makes that question impossible to answer. I mean I do understand what you're saying, but she is the one who opened the door to the possibility that some political calculation in this alternate timeline where she is pres would have swayed her hand.

(that said, I have not heard what HRC said about trans rights)

Sitting out an election > voting for a Republican. That voter can fuck himself.

like I don't know if Biden is bad or good on trans issues, but Ketanji Brown Jackson will likely be better on almost everything than whatever cath-fash Federalist Society goon Trump would have put in during his 2nd term.