ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Crazy.

To put Russian tank losses in 72 days of fighting in Ukraine into perspective--if Ukrainian claims are at all close to being accurate, the Russians have lost as many tanks as the Germans lost on the ENTIRE Eastern Front during the summer campaign of 1943. Including Kursk, et al. pic.twitter.com/pqA7cJYzlf

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 7, 2022

http://inews.co.uk/news/putin-mariupol-survivors-remote-corners-russia-investigation-network-camps-1615516

a local newspaper reported in late April how 300 people, including 86 children, pregnant women and pensioners, arrived in Vladivostok after an exhausting seven-day journey...Russian media claimed they had “chosen” to live in the Far East, adding that “almost everyone notes the beauty of the sea”

More evacuations, bombing:

More than 300 civilians have been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“I am grateful to the teams of the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations Organization, who helped us organize the first phase of the evacuation missions from Azovstal,” Zelenskyy said in a video posted to Telegram.

Civilians and soldiers have been barricaded at the massive steel plant since mid-April.

Zelenskyy says preparations are underway for the second phase of the evacuation mission, which includes rescuing the wounded and the doctors.

— MacKenzie Sigalos

2 HOURS AGO
Russia drops bomb school in eastern Ukraine, says local governor
A Russian airstrike hit a school sheltering 90 people in the eastern village of Bilohorivka, according to Luhansk Regional Governor Serhiy Haidai.

Haidai wrote in a Telegram post that about 30 people have already been saved from the rubble, and the rescue operation remains underway.

The village has become a hot spot during the conflict, according to Haidai, who went on to note that “Russian forces are trying to make a breakthrough there,” and “there are constant battles” in the small town.

“They dropped a bomb on a school where almost the entire village was hiding,” continued Haidai. “Everyone who did not have time to evacuate.”

http://inews.co.uk/news/putin-mariupol-survivors-remote-corners-russia-investigation-network-camps-1615516🕸

_a local newspaper reported in late April how 300 people, including 86 children, pregnant women and pensioners, arrived in Vladivostok after an exhausting seven-day journey...Russian media claimed they had “chosen” to live in the Far East, adding that “almost everyone notes the beauty of the sea”_

Haven’t finished this but it’s been circulating in left circles. https://lefteast.org/frontiers-of-whiteness-expropriation-war-social-reproduction-in-ukraine/

Haven't these poor Ukranians suffered enough?

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/u2-bono-the-edge-acoustic-set-kyiv-bomb-shelter-1350428/

Is it time to post that picture of the The Traveling KGBerries again?

This is a challenging read:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/10ee62f0-ce2d-11ec-8423-5db7bbe7a364?shareToken=a1398f3144a9e31bcd0c5992ee8eb3bf

("The village in Ukraine where Russians looted, murdered and raped")

knock on wood, but i was glad when i was not incinerated on this Victory Day morning

It’s the little things.

Whats the consensus or general reading on the somewhat muted victory day parade?

It feels unclear what the plan or direction is now, or whether we should even have been reading too much into the events of that day. I didn't really understand why he would use that day for mobilization if thats what he was going to do

There seems an inherent danger in mobilisation, but Z is already a step in that direction, moving from a passive population (do we lack a verb for this?) to a more energized or involved one

I read it as a flailing shrug.

One hopes for a realisation that it was more fun being an autocrat than a tyrant, but who really knows

Does Bono count as a war crime?

The U.S. intelligence community assesses Russia is preparing for a "prolonged conflict" in Ukraine that is likely to become "more unpredictable and escalatory" due to a "mismatch" between Vladimir Putin's ambitions and military capabilities, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testified Tuesday.

Why it matters: Both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily, turning the conflict into a "war of attrition" with no "viable" prospects for peace negotiations in the near term, Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The big picture: While Russian forces have refocused on the eastern Donbas region after failing to capture Kyiv in the first few weeks of the war, the U.S. views this as "only a temporary shift."

"We assess President Putin is preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas," Haines said.
Zoom in ... Putin has at least four "near-term military objectives," according to the U.S. intelligence community:

Fully capture and establish a "buffer zone" in the Donbas, where Russian-backed separatists have declared "people's republics."
Encircle Ukraine's military west of the Donbas "in order to crush the most capable and well-equipped Ukrainian forces fighting to hold the line in the east."
Consolidate control of the land bridge that Russia has established from the Donbas along the southern coast of Ukraine to Crimea, allowing Russian forces to occupy the Kherson region and control Crimea's water supplies.
The U.S. also sees "indications" that Russia wants to extend the land bridge further west to capture the historic port city of Odessa and connect with the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova, fully cutting Ukraine off from the sea.
Between the lines: The U.S. views it as "increasingly unlikely" that Russia will be able to establish full control over the Donbas or extend the land bridge to Transnistria, especially without a broader mobilization of Russia's reservists.

"But Putin most likely also judges that Russia has a greater ability and willingness to endure challenges than his adversaries and he is probably counting on U.S. and EU resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation and energy prices get worse," Haines warned.
The U.S. believes Russia will continue to use "nuclear rhetoric" to deter the West from providing further military assistance to Ukraine, but that Putin "would probably only authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state or regime."

All in all, I don't see general mobilization as technically feasible or likely, hence I suggested this would not be declared on May 9th. A combination of halfway measures won't dramatically change Russian fortunes either, but they could significantly extend the war. 23/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 12, 2022

Interesting that the Ukranians are currently pursuing war crime prosecutions, during the actual war itself... is this a first?
Seems like it's rarely done during the heat of battle and only after the hostilities have ended

From Ukrainian Pravda, a remarkable document comprised of the phone videos in peace and war of a very young Russian officer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIZIspwem2s

This may seem trivial but it's kind of a big deal... 850 stores with 62,000 staff:

McDonald's has said it will permanently leave Russia after more than 30 years and has started to sell its restaurants...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61463876

Russian TV reporting that Grimace is a Nazi

"unpredictable operating environment" is the nub if the matter, while "humanitarian crisis" is mostly just fronting. sounds to me like mcdonald's doesn't want to be forced to hold rubles it can't convert or repatriate, so it's taking its loss and opting for the tax write off as the best deal going forward.

Yeah, that's probably accurate - the article also mentions that the Kremlin just nationalized Renaults's assets there; maybe McD wants to get out before the same thing happens to them

An interview with the grandmother who was turned into a Russian propaganda symbol after greeting Ukrainian soldiers with a Soviet flag:

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/16/maybe-the-lord-himself-sent-me

Extremely good thread here delving into the Ukrainian government's current plan for the next three months.

Really interesting speech given by Ukrainian defense minister @oleksiireznikov yesterday to EU Defense ministers. A vision of how Ukraine thinks the war will go this summer. Russia will continue quiet mobilisation and Ukraine will try and waste them away. https://t.co/XKkG9hQpvD

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 18, 2022

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/23/a-ukrainian-city-under-a-violent-new-regime

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/05/bullets-and-blindfolds-in-a-ukrainian-city-under-siege

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/ukraine-jewish-community-russia-invasion-resistance-1351070/

Moscow 1991 / Moscow 2022 pic.twitter.com/jKey9oURWj

— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) May 23, 2022

Currently, Russians aged 18-40 and foreigners aged 18-30 can enter into a first contract with the army. A draft bill on the agenda of the lower house State Duma for today would completely lift that upper age limit.

when you've run out of teenagers, get some Gen Xers in there instead

they might get a sitcom out of this:

Old Navy? No, Old Army!

“when you've run out of teenagers, get some Gen Xers in there instead”

ok doomer

haha

meanwhile, in Davos

🗣️Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine.

The veteran US statesman said that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe

Thread 🧵⤵️https://t.co/9jhNmOvxjI

— Telegraph World News (@TelegraphWorld) May 24, 2022

"the following is a paid presentation"

The Treasury Department on Tuesday took a major step toward pushing Russia into a government default, announcing it would no longer allow the Kremlin to make debt payments owed to American bondholders.

The move will make it much harder, if not impossible, for Russia to avoid a default — a breach of its national debt commitments — which Moscow has tried to avoid since launching the war in Ukraine.

The Biden administration imposed sanctions on Russia’s central bank shortly after the start of the war, but it issued a special license exempting bond payments, allowing Russia to continue to pay its loan obligations. But that license was set to expire this week, and Treasury is now saying it will not be renewed. That means American banks will not be able to process debt payments when Russia tries to make them. In total, the Russian government owes about $20 billion worth of bonds, mostly in dollars, and it owes about $500 million in interest payments over the next month, according to Gerard DiPippo, a senior fellow with the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“This will make the likelihood of a default now significant,” said Adam Smith, a partner at Gibson Dunn and a former Obama administration sanctions official. “We’ve never done this to an economy like this before.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/05/24/treasury-russia-debt-default/

From WSJ newsletter, linked to paywall, but this is the gist:

The war in Ukraine is limiting supplies of a key baby-formula ingredient. Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports has curbed shipments of sunflower-seed oil, hampering efforts to boost production to alleviate the U.S. infant-formula shortage. Many formula manufacturers use sunflower-seed oil to add critical fats to products. Ukraine has been the No. 1 exporter of the oil, according to the USDA. Finding alternative sources or rewriting recipes to replace sunflower oil will take time, industry experts said.

The right-wing 'tan your balls' crowd will cite that as a benefit to the Russian invasion. Seed oils are poison, after all.

they might get a sitcom out of this:

Old Navy? No, Old Army!

― rare lipstick or mohawks that somehow make them more valuable (President Keyes), Wednesday, May 25, 2022 3:50 AM (four days ago)

can't imagine a sitcom with this premise and any even vaguely similar name ever being a success tbh

Wait for my elevator pitch

Oops...

Two Britons, Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner are sentenced to death alongside Moroccan national Saaudun Brahim are sentenced to death, Russian media reports

, Jimmy Two Times reports

A long, disturbing thread about Russian propaganda novels:

THREAD Let's start a long thread about how Russian book market prepared Russians for a full-scale war against Ukraine, NATO, the West, and promoted stalinism and nazism, and how this was ignored by the West. Keep seat belts fasten, you will see a lot of nasty things here. pic.twitter.com/iPgl4OTU7C

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) June 11, 2022

Sounds about right, sadly.

Reminds me of all the Mack Bolan: the Executioner books they used to sell at the supermarket in the 80s

I read that Sumlenny thing earlier. It kind of goes against the idea that Z IS a departure in that pre-Z the idea was to keep the population passive and apathetic with the Z move to mobilize and energize the population going against what went before

I suppose both ideas aren't necessarily entirely contradictory

https://wikimediafoundation.org/news/2022/06/13/wikimedia-foundation-appeals-russian-court-decision-on-removal-of-wikipedia-information-related-to-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/

t.me/northern_friend in Mariupol

Near a heavily damaged nine-story building I met a guy with a girl of about thirty, their appearance resembled visitors to trendy bars, but they had not washed for a long time, they were collecting some kind of rubbish in the ruins.
-Wow, how dishevelled I wonder what they bombed! Are you local?
-We are locals, but are you not local?
- No, I came to visit relatives.
-Where from?
-Samara, Russia.
-Here, yours and bombed, poured hail and aeroballistic missiles on civilians! Your Russia will turn into North Korea in general!
-Yeah, and soon your Ukraine will not exist at all.
On that they parted.

On that they parted, I can't think why

Oops...

SMAT is crawling the “Russian Facebook”, VKontakte, to ID war criminals.

So far we found: 9/10 of the “Despicable 10”, the un-named Bucha truck driver, and 700 matches total.

Here we name names and share methods and findings. 🧵…..https://t.co/wbkoGyPRlG

— SMAT App (@SMAT_app) June 23, 2022

I rarely look at Aljazeera, but this caught my eye: claims that fall of Severodonetsk is no big deal---true?

The Kremlin is trumpeting the takeover of Severodonetsk because it remained one of the few Ukrainian-controlled towns in Luhansk, one of Ukraine’s smallest and poorest regions that was partially taken over by pro-Russian separatists in 2014.

...Two months of intense fighting also significantly decimated Russian forces in Severodonetsk, where the pre-war population was about 100,000.

“Ukraine has ground down a significant mass of Russian troops and retreated,” Pavel Luzin, a Russian-based expert with the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera.

...t least two-fifths of Donetsk, a far larger and more populated province, is still controlled by Ukrainian forces.

They have built extensive defense installations there since rebels seized a third of Donetsk in 2014 – and taking them over will prove far more difficult than seizing Luhansk.

Meanwhile, the immediate economic consequences of losing all of Luhansk are minimal.

Pretty true, yeah. The stated goal of Ukraine's command has been to stall things as long as possible while they get in more arms and wear down Russian forces, with a general idea that if they can keep holding them until mid-July things will be where/how they want for the future. We'll see.

Over the past six or eight weeks many of the news stories about Ukraine make a point of saying that Zelenskyy has no political space to end the war on any terms but complete Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian people won't accept less. Given the disparity in population and productive capacity between Ukraine and Russia, it's hard to see how a strategy of attrition could play out in Ukraine's favor on any time scale not counted in years and hundreds of thousands of casualties.