U.S. Supreme Court: Post-Ginsburg Edition

I don't get being genuinely shocked or concerned about the leak (surprised it happened, sure). But my impression from legal types over the last few months is they have already accepted Roe being overturned as a fait accompli, so the lack of shock over that isn't surprising

If you have access: https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/05/02/leak-time-magazine-roe-wade/

Interesting on the leak.

I clerked at the Supreme Court. Last night, I assumed a liberal clerk leaked the draft opinion overturning Roe. Now I think MUCH more likely it was leaked by a conservative fanatically committed to every word of Alito’s monstrous opinion. **🧵**

— Amy Kapczynski (@akapczynski) May 3, 2022

kinda disagree that "Occam's Razor" suggests a conservative leaked it.

also idgaf who did.

Pointless to speculate, another one of those things that the Smart People of Twitter wrongly imagine they can figure out purely by reason

kinda disagree that "Occam's Razor" suggests a conservative leaked it.

yeah, that kind of annoyed me, like that doesn't just mean you can slap the term on your preferred pet theory and call it done.

"Occam's Razor" explanations don't require a 14-tweet storm to elaborate. The whole point of Occam's Razor is that it's supposed to be simple.

Like she literally invented a Robert concurrence, invented a Kavanaugh thought process about the Roberts concurrence, and then invented a motivation for the leaker based on Kavanaugh's imaginary thought process about Roberts' imaginary concurrence - how the fuck is that Occam's Razor?

esp since leaks, albeit not of this exact type, have happened from the Courts before. just not usual for it to be a draft opinion, that's the wrinkle.

xpost lol otm

i would love to believe someone is trying to swing another SCOTUS voter over to instead vote against outright repealing Roe V Wade and more limiting its scope, but true Occam's Razor = this shit is happening and a clerk or a justice who supports abortion rights is fuckin' pissed.

hope people camp outside Alito's house for months

More MURKOWSKI: “If the decision is going the way that the draft that has been revealed is actually the case, it was not—it was not the direction that I believed that the court would take based on statements that have been made about Roe being settled and being precedent.”

— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) May 3, 2022

I am shocked, shocked.

"I'm so so disappointed, I had it on good authority they were telling the truth!!!!"

more like durrkowski

"I didn't realize when I voted for the Face Eating Tiger Party that they would eat my face."

i don't where else to say this, but i need to say it. i am venting and not all the way sure about how i feel. thanks for reading.

my whole life i've voted for nothing but the people who were supposed to stop what's happening. i've written to my representatives and even went to some peaceful protests. and yet, it's still happening. i was always promised that things like this will "only happen if we let them." if i was supposed to be doing more this whole time, i didn't know.

of they're just going to do whatever they want anyeay, why should i keep caring?

wow, now THAT jumble of typos is an actual example of "fat thumb" mistakes.

sorry, jeez. think it's clear what i was saying, but can clarify if need be.

I know how you feel. At this point, it seems like our options are very limited indeed, despite best efforts all along the way.

I have to keep fighting, in large part b/c all around me I see people browner, poorer, and more threatened than me.

New ABC News/Washington Post poll: Roughly 70 percent of adults surveyed believe the decision to get an abortion should be left to the pregnant woman and her doctor, not lawmakers

Even with the margin of error, that's a serious majority

I hope Alito eggs Roberts into becoming slightly left of center. From the recent NYT updates, to me, McConnell's reaction to the leak suggests it wasn't part of his midterm thinking.

same, alfred! and you reside in florida (if i'm not mistaken) so you've been in one of the epicenters of this whole unfolding - definitely appreciate hearing that from you.

but i guess what i'm really getting at is: i don't know what else to do anymore. just continue with the same things that aren't working?

discouraged and angry. bad combo.

the roar of "this will completely change the mid-terms" from some 'silver-lining' folk I know has irked me because

a) assuming the vote doesn't change when opinion published, several states have either heavily restrictive rules beyond what was previously allowed, or outright bans, set to go into place immediately.

b) that's a MIGHTY big assumption, since although abortion will mobilize many left and some independent voters, even some of the 70% that support abortion aren't necessarily going to vote Democratic just because of that. not everyone is a single-issue voter

c) I'm really not convinced it would be a seismic shift. lots of people feel like their job is done now that Trump's gone.

would be glad to be wrong about all of these, or find out SCOTUS was trolling us, but I have no faith.

the protests have already started. the day the order is issued is when.....things will likely escalate further. they kind of need to. nothing else reaches anybody.

and d) even if things do break towards Democrats, no guarantee we can still codify abortion into law.

it's so fucking stupid. we have the tools to end this NOW and we won't. simple ending of the filibuster and we could move past this.

(This may be wishful thinking because news and memory are short-lived but I think it was a smart move on Biden's part to associate this with rights for all and personal privacy and choice.)

this is more us politics, but what are the chances of the GOP ending the filibuster if they get 50+ members?

a pretty sure bet

maybe romney? just because? but i have to say, i can see manchin voting with the republicans to end the filibuster, being that 50th vote. or sinema. it's fucking crazy but it makes so much sense

But the traditions of the Senate etc.

Manchin has said he ain't touching the filibuster iirc

The motherfucker can go jump in a wood chipper

There isn't enough coal in all of Appalachia for that pustule's stocking

Manchin has said he ain't touching the filibuster iirc

That was last month.

Is this the same Manchin who just cut a commercial for a Republican candidate?

^^^

i think it has like a 2.4% chance of happening, but the way it would happen is that manchin would need to show a sign of true "betrayal" in order to complete the ritual switching of parties

it would be the final sign that yes, he was one of the good white guys

the ritual demands the blood of betrayal

*GROTESQUE SCREAMING*

this is more us politics, but what are the chances of the GOP ending the filibuster if they get 50+ members?

Doubtful in the near term - what's the point in killing the filibuster with a Democratic President? They'll wait until January 2025 and if margins are tight and they need to pass something, shit is toast. Then they'll blame Democrats for talking about it as the reason they had to do it.

yep, that's more of what i meant - not short-term but post-2024

the filibuster is more helpful to republicans than democrats, especially since they have the court

republican legislative priorities tend more toward budgetary items that do not need to get around the filibuster, so there isn't as much incentive for them to ditch it

republican legislative priorities tend more toward budgetary items

maybe in the past... now it's 100% culture war 24/7/365. Cawthorn is fighting for our right to bring loaded pistols on airplanes

we have the tools to end this NOW and we won't. simple ending of the filibuster and we could move past this

I get the frustration, but who is the "we" here? And what specific levers can/should they push, that they are not already pushing? Like, what is the specific and actionable and achievable path to that change? Everyone on my side has been voting, donating, advocating, protesting, writing letters, etc., for decades.

It won't budge the court. And it won't budge the likes of Manchin. If the majority is just a paper majority that you can't actually use, then it may as well not be a majority at all.

xp

They like to talk about culture war stuff, but not necessarily pass laws about it.

uh

visit me in Florida

Talking about at the federal level only, obviously all kinds of stupid stuff is being passed in the states

This is not a rhetorical question: assuming no filibuster, would Congress actually be able to pass a law preventing states from banning abortion? Can congress regulate what laws states can make? And what would be the source of the federal power to enshrine abortion as legal? Commerce clause?