ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Bumping this up

i expect this will be good in helping to determine what the fuck is going on in the ukraine

I'm surprised more people aren't more bothered about this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/27/boris-johnson-tempting-evil-revealing-ukrainian-soldiers-trained-poland

It seems a total dick move.

Well, Boris Johnson is a total dick after all.

Of course.

It just seems like a move that will get people killed.

A somewhat thorough rundown on diplomatic negotiations so far, and the effects of Bucha atrocities, sinking of the Moskva, and other events on said discussions for either side:

(article is in Russian but chrome has a useful translate function, hope it's available in other browsers)

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-61241525

"The Ukrainian work that pre-dated the seizure of Crimea was a continuation of existing programmes, and we know the Russians seem to be using other marine mammals, including belugas in the Arctic," Lambert added in an email.
And Russia isn't the only country to do this kind of work with marine mammals. In fact, the U.S. Navy has a history of similar programs, and it trains dolphins as well as seals for similar purposes to this day. Here's a look at why dolphins make good defenders and which countries rely on them.

Reminds me of this movie, and Dr. John Lilly, who I knew via his writing about acid and dolphins, which the Pentagon wanted him to train for Vietnam, but he was like gross fuck you---as wiki sez:

As of March 2022, The Day of the Dolphin holds a rating of 43% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 28 reviews.[17]

Differences from the novel and other sources of inspiration
Merle's novel, a satire of the Cold War, is supposedly the basis for this film, but the film's plot was substantially different from that of the novel. The movie is instead inspired in part from the scientist John C. Lilly's life. A physician, biophysicist, neuroscientist, and inventor, Lilly specialized in the study of consciousness. In 1959, he founded the Communications Research Institute at St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands and served as its director until 1968. There he worked with dolphins exploring dolphin intelligence and human-dolphin communication.

See also Bottlenose dolphin communication and John Lilly and cetacean communication.

Let’s talk about the state of the war and one of the most underreported yet crucially important issues:

Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports and resulting strangulation of the country’s economy 🧵

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) April 30, 2022

Really interesting bigger pic

As ever it's second hand and then some but the Twitter feeds I've been following on the conflict have been noting over the last couple of days that whatever the Russian big advance was supposed to have been seems to have slowed noticeably. Probably explains why Gerasimov's been sent there but it doesn't seem to have changed anything else. Some points of note:

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 30 April 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/TU1DzgHpEu

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/mfMgJGMqAL

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) April 30, 2022

If these Ukrainian claims are at all accurate (it should be noted that documented, photographed claims of Russian losses are about two thirds of those claimed, so they certainly should not be out by much) then the Russians have lost 217 tanks and 404 APCs since the battle started

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 30, 2022

Even if they are exaggerrated by 20 percent, Russian losses would be extreme, around 20 full strength BTGs worth? And according to the Pentagon, the Russians have 92 BTGs in Ukraine. https://t.co/OfxADElCBF

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 30, 2022

Meantime, supposedly another Russian general's been killed:

Ukrainian sources are claiming this artillery strike on a 2nd Army Russian command post near Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, killed Major General Andrey Simonov.

It's yet to be confirmed by Russian sources but it's significant they named a specific general. pic.twitter.com/bohq0iX56G

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) April 30, 2022

Those O'Brien tweets are excellent quality.

He's been solid these past few months. And I appreciate his regular noting that what happened with Syria shouldn't be ignored now that everyone's paying more attention.

“Where there is war, you’ll find a Palestinian, a Yemeni and a Syrian. So here we are in Ukraine,” said Vail Albekhesi, 51, a Palestinian who came in 1989.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/28/ukraine-muslims-decry-russian-invasion/

A couple pieces from March on Chechens fighting for Ukraine:

https://oc-media.org/features/we-have-only-one-enemy-this-is-russia-the-chechens-taking-up-arms-for-ukraine/

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/chechens-fighting-chechens-in-ukraine/

Last month, on BBC Worldwide, a Chechen guy was saying, "It's Chechens versus Chechens," fighting on both sides, his tone was like, "Business as usual," if not, "Duh."

Interesting. Per this short thread, turns out that the Russian general killed yesterday was collateral damage because they were actually trying to get Geramisov, and he was apparently wounded at least per reports, though no full confirmation yet.

The Ukrainian ability to process and act on important intelligence reaches to the top of the Kremlin. Maybe now they might have an idea of the country they so stupidly chose to attack. https://t.co/HbqldvijFn

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 1, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-denounces-lavrovs-hitler-comments-summons-russian-ambassador-2022-05-02/

watching the old campist left go on and on about denazification as if all 44 million ukranians are azov has been embarassing

To put it mildly!

Ugh, seriously.

the russian zip-up uniforms are mas macho

Interesting thread, especially the final points.

Kirill Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR), sat down with NV for a rather long interview. Here are some of the key takeaways for me. /1https://t.co/9LdSlRF4wS

— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) May 2, 2022

watching the old campist left go on and on about denazification as if all 44 million ukranians are azov has been embarassing

Don't put the cart before the horse.

https://i.imgur.com/5RGTbeQ.png

An eyesore for shore.

Russia doubling down on Lavrov's comments. Lecturing Jews about the Nazis, not a great look, to be honest.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-under-fire-for-hitler-comments-says-israel-backing-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/

Expecting a good faith discussion with Russia is foolish

me having read (the almost unendurable) bloodlands a month ago or so, that lavrov shit is unfuckingbelievable. feeling actual fury.

The only reason it doesn't enrage me more is that it's pretty hard to be like, "ok THAT'S it, THAT'S the last straw" after the kind of rhetoric they've used from the outset

It's like with Trump, when every straw is the last straw, it's harder to recognise, process or even care about the massive fuckery. It's tiring by design.

But even so it's not helping them. Whatever the Great Big Push plans in the Donbass were seems to have burned out.

In any event, a sobering read

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/03/feeling-around-for-something-human

I'm glad they came out with the English translation for this - I kept waiting for it to happen, feels like it's been a couple weeks at least.

Meanwhile, just having a normal one:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/russian-state-tv-shows-clips-simulating-ireland-being-wiped-out-by-nuclear-weapons-1.4867631

Problems problems

This is really remarkable. Soldiers from South Ossetia openly stating that the complete chaos and incompetence of the Russian command in Ukraine led them to desert and return home. They say huge amounts of equipment simply do not work. https://t.co/yXYygYGLIl pic.twitter.com/7cZpUG7Ia1

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) May 4, 2022

Typical Big Huge Galeev thread but brings up a variety of points new to me:

May 9, the Victory Day is a crucial symbolic date. We should expect the Victory Parade and Putin's speech to the nation on that day. What is he gonna say? Many are pondering whether he will:

1. Declare war on Ukraine
2. Declare mass mobilisation in Russia

Let's discuss both🧵 pic.twitter.com/LUvqRyUsLu

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 4, 2022

Of which I thought this was especially of interest:

In practical terms that means that the ability of Russia to regroup, withdrawing its forces from the North (Kyiv) in order to send everyone to the East (Donbass) was probably exaggerated. Many of those who already been to Ukraine and were returned to Russia simply won't go again. pic.twitter.com/LgFQFBuWcf

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 4, 2022

Some good on the ground stuff here if you have WSJ access

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-retakes-villages-near-kharkiv-easing-pressure-on-battered-city-11651669856

That Meduza link is quite something, its been sitting with me for a while

Good article on a less-reported component of US military assistance to Ukraine, intelligence that has allowed them to target high-value Russian assets, such as senior commanders on the ground:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-generals-killed-ukraine.html

xpost -- yeah it's not surprising, sadly, but it is clarifying.

Extensive O'Brien thread on things (worth reading from the start) which then notes this new key point

Ukrainian commander in Chief Zaluzhnyi now saying far from the Russians being just stalled in the Donbas, that the Ukrainians are now counterattacking around Izyum. (We already new about Kharkiv) https://t.co/kUOCHMjOZD

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 5, 2022

To say it so publicly, the Ukrainians must feel really confident. And tbh, the Russian forces have been so tentative and halting in their advance, there is reason for the Ukrainians to be confident

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 5, 2022

Meantime, fog of war stuff but (if accurate) an interesting read. A little context: the author is supposed to be a volunteer from one of the two occupied breakaway regions in the Donbass pre-war, and PMC is 'private military company' aka Wagner group. Sounds like it's not exactly happy for them about now.

You may remember an account from an LPR volunteer in Rubizhne from a week or so ago.

There was another post from him about Wagner Group involvement in #Popasna offensive.

I've translated it here: pic.twitter.com/coEvn5bNrs

— Dmitri 🇺🇦 (@mdmitri91) May 5, 2022

Also, an interesting complement to the Meduza piece

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/05/a-heart-to-heart-with-russias-elites-a77587

Rumors circulating that Putin has assumed chief command of the 'special operation' and the Prime Minister Mishustin is overseeing domestic affairs

What could go wrong?

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a rare apology on Thursday to Israel over recent antisemitic comments from Russia’s foreign minister connecting Nazi leader Adolf Hitler to Judaism, according to the Israeli prime minister.

The reported apology came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of using Nazi propaganda and antisemitic tropes to justify the invasion as Russian leaders repeatedly compare Zelensky to Hitler.

During a phone conversation between Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the Russian president apologized for remarks made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who recently dismissed Zelensky’s Jewish faith by claiming that “Hitler also had Jewish blood” — a discredited antisemitic claim.

“The Prime Minister accepted President Putin’s apology for Lavrov’s remarks and thanked him for clarifying the President’s attitude towards the Jewish people and the memory of the Holocaust,” according to a news release from Bennett’s office.

Putin: "it was a goof"

yeah, offhand antisemitic comments don't exactly bolster the denazifiaction claims

U.S. intel helped Ukraine sink Russian flagship Moskva, officials say
The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet sank on April 14 after being struck by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles, according to U.S. officials.

American officials have expressed concerns that reporting about U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine could anger Putin and provoke an unpredictable response.

I can't imagine it's a huge secret that Ukraine is benefiting from U.S. intelligence.. we're sending howitzers, after all

A counterargument to the 'that shouldn't have leaked, jeez' response is that that's so much bluster and in fact the US et al basically are telling Putin "This is how fucked your armed forces really are." Which, I could see it.

Meantime Kharkiv is apparently just about fully freed up (Trofimov is the WSJ's reporter on the ground there):

Ukrainians claiming they have liberated more settlements around Kharkiv. Russians are going to have to transfer more forces here or they might soon be out of artiller range of the city. https://t.co/rWDTzDgaBT

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 6, 2022

I think they could be out of artillery range in a matter of hours. The capture of Cherkasky Tyshky makes the Russian presence in Tsyrkuny untenable.

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 6, 2022

A notable thing about Trofimov's most recent feature, which I linked some posts up, was that in at least one village everyone who was pro-Russian ultimately fled when the tide turned. I have to wonder if they (and anyone else in similar situations) would come back willingly, and what that kind of internal refugee situation for Russia would ultimately mean.

Russian forces are stealing farm equipment and thousands of tons of grain from Ukrainian farmers in areas they have occupied, as well as targeting food storage sites with artillery, multiple sources have told CNN.

The phenomenon has accelerated in recent weeks as Russian units have tightened their grip on parts of the rich agricultural regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, the sources said. Sowing operations in many areas have since been disrupted or abandoned.
The actions of the Russian forces may threaten the harvest this year in one of the world's most important grain-producing countries. The volumes involved are said to be huge.
Oleg Nivievskyi, an agrarian specialist at the Kyiv School of Economics, told CNN that on the eve of the invasion 6 million tons of wheat and 15 million tons of corn were ready for export from Ukraine, much of it held in the south of the country.

...For Ukrainians, the seizure of grain recalls a dark period in their history, when Stalin forcibly removed food stocks from Ukrainian peasants in the 1930s, leading to the deaths of millions of people. Known as Holodomor (to kill by starvation) it is considered an act of genocide by many Ukrainians.
The head of the Luhansk Regional Administration, Serhiy Hayday, says the Russians' goal is another Holodomor.
The Russians now occupy about 90% of Luhansk's farmland and have taken about 100,000 tons of grain from the region, he estimates.
Much of what they've not stolen has been destroyed.

50 civilians evacuated from Mariupol steel plant
More civilians have been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, that is under Russian siege.

Some 50 women, children and elderly people were brought out from the vast complex on Friday, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.

She accused Russia of constantly violating a ceasefire that was supposed to help ensure the safety of the evacuations.

"Therefore, the evacuation was extremely slow ... tomorrow morning we will continue the evacuation operation," she said in an online post.

Buses carrying the civilians were brought out from the plant to a camp in the Russian-controlled town of Bezimenne.

An estimated 200 civilians, along with Ukrainian resistance fighters, remained trapped in underground refuges at the huge industrial complex.