ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

NATO head predicts Ukraine conflict could continue "for a long time": Although Russia is now concentrating its assault on eastern Ukraine, NATO has seen “no indication” that Putin's aim of controlling the whole country has changed, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday.

Speaking to reporters before a meeting in Brussels of foreign ministers of NATO allies, Stoltenberg also warned the war in Ukraine could last for years.

“We have seen no indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and also to rewrite the international order, so we need to be prepared for the long haul,” he said. “We have to be realistic and realize that this may last for a long time, for many months or even years.”
The foreign ministers of NATO countries are meeting Wednesday and Thursday to discuss ramping up support for Ukraine.

As long as Ukraine can hold out using its own military personnel I think NATO countries would be very happy to be their supplier of munitions and equipment. Humanitarian aid into Ukraine should present no problems either. The masses of refugees might prove a harder political problem for NATO, but not in the short term.

From the POV of any country but Russia, the best of the likely outcomes might be withdrawal and consolidation of the Russian forces into Donbas, a sharp, but short, contest over the territorial corridor to Crimea that Russia is hoping to seize, quickly reaching a stalemate that can be regularized via diplomacy. Then, a period of stability while Ukraine rebuilds. This would not hopefully not be contingent on NATO removing all sanctions, but simply reflect the battlefield realities achieved by Ukraine.

Looks like they've had to start fessing up a bit to their public

TASS: "Russia suffered significant losses during a special military operation in Ukraine, Dmitry Peskov said.

"We have suffered significant losses of troops, this is a huge tragedy for us," the presidential press secretary said."

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) April 7, 2022

O’Brien with an as-it-stands breakdown

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-military-strategy-russian-failure-kyiv/629514/

And I have kept thinking how remarkable it is how relatively faceless Ukrainian command seems, in a good way, like they're just there to do the job. Useful piece:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901

Interesting article about volunteers in the Ukraine "foreign legion":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/ukraine-foreign-legion-vetting/

Putin sympathizer Le Pen getting fairly likely to win, and then/either way:

Washington fears that a Le Pen in the Élysée would upset this delicate balance. Her victory could then prompt other European leaders — some of whom were already nervous about getting tough on Russia — to bail on the alliance as well.

Some Biden aides believe that even if Macron manages a narrow reelection, it could still have a chilling effect on European leaders who may worry about their own eventual political future against populists less toxic than Le Pen. That fear may only be exacerbated if the war between Russia and Ukraine becomes a protracted conflict that lasts months and months, resulting in higher energy prices across Europe, a continent dependent on Moscow for energy.

xpost re:

NATO head predicts Ukraine conflict could continue "for a long time": Although Russia is now concentrating its assault on eastern Ukraine, NATO has seen “no indication” that Putin's aim of controlling the whole country has changed, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday.
Speaking to reporters before a meeting in Brussels of foreign ministers of NATO allies, Stoltenberg also warned the war in Ukraine could last for years.

“We have seen no indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and also to rewrite the international order, so we need to be prepared for the long haul,” he said. “We have to be realistic and realize that this may last for a long time, for many months or even years.”
The foreign ministers of NATO countries are meeting Wednesday and Thursday to discuss ramping up support for Ukraine.

much more:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-06-22/index.html
(my April 2 post)

Read the news that Boris Johnson has met with Zelenskiy in Kyiv with a slight worry that the former might inadvertently give away the latter's location.

That was more of a worry when the attack was on, I suspect.

Whereas the latter giving away the former's location is only to be encouraged.

He emits a slime trail that can he tracked by satellite

So Putin has appointed Gen. Aleksander Dvornikov (“the Butcher of Syria”) as chief commander. He’s had lots of practice reducing cities to rubble, deploying chemical weapons, and generally overseeing the wholesale slaughter of civilians in Chechnya and Syria. That’s the basic boilerplate I've been seeing in multiple reports today. Does this guy have any particular strategic talents beyond these points?

Hope the Ukrainians figure out his cell phone provider.

At what point does the US say fuck it and get soldiers on the ground?

you're welcome to think that way, but "fuck it, let's go to war" is (**checks notes**) abysmally stupid.

I agree that it’s stupid. It’s just agonizing that no one is stepping in in a real way.

An interesting example of orientalism (a variation on the theme of 'Russians have a slavish mentality whereas Ukrainians are freedom-loving'). Probably would not be worth debunking but lest people say I don't spend enough time on this platform, let's take a look... https://t.co/0qDETrAUR8

— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) April 13, 2022

And in Poland..

Ukrainian women who were raped by Russians and left to Poland cannot have abortions there. Under Polish law, abortion is allowed in case of rape, but there is no criminal case yet
Psychologists in Poland are convincing her that a new life is wonderful. They destroys lives of both

— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) April 13, 2022

Russia has also defaulted on its debt.

It's a terrible situation. Thankfully, there are volunteers in Poland already offering to drive women seeking abortions to Berlin and back.

Also bad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/stop-matching-lone-female-ukraine-refugees-with-single-men-uk-told

I don't really get the point of your incessant "the rest of Europe is no angel either" posts

https://www.rfu2022.org/en/

Here is a link to the volunteer organization I mentioned upthread (offering round trips to Berlin for pregnant rape victims to get an abortion can be added to the below listing of what they do):

Since February 26, we have been meeting refugees at Ukrainian border crossings into Poland. We work as collective and our team consists of translators, lawyers, social workers, psychologists, drivers and porters. We collect and dispatch humanitarian aid, arrange all of its logistics, evacute people out of Ukraine and help them find shelter in safe countries.

There are also multiple links/options there for anyone looking to donate.

I don't really get the point of your incessant "the rest of Europe is no angel either" posts

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 13 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Is that what you are getting out of the links I am posting about Ukrainians fleeing war?

Yup.

I guess we have to start a new thread for things that happen to Ukrainians in other countries

I don't really get the point of your incessant "the rest of Europe is no angel either" posts

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 13 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Lol

“ok what the fuck is happening in counties that are not Ukraine, but involves people fleeing the war in Ukraine and also politicians reacting to the situation in Ukraine, but not Ukrainian politicians or people in Ukraine.”

Well it was a huge issue that MoominTrollin was making good posts here about Russia for reasons I'm not clear on

He was not FAP-approved

Further argument won't help, judging by history of this wartorn thread.

"huge issue" lol gtfo, a couple of people rolled their eyes at the copypasta, that's it

The eye-rolling will continue no matter what, but will subside to a tolerable minimum without unnecessary provocation. And if not, well, it's better to be on the side of constructive discussions re: Ukraine goings on and not on the side of gleefully shitting up the thread. People may have differing opinions on what constitutes what, of course (see above).

Speaking from personal experience - no one will give you a medal for resisting temptation and not zinging but your efforts in the service of furthering productive conversation will still make for a richer life than being a cackling shitgoblin.

Well it was a huge issue that MoominTrollin was making good posts here about Russia for reasons I'm not clear on

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 13 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

So much to be wrong about in one day.

Meanwhile, quite a few Ukraine refugees at the US-Mexico border---10,000 registered at one San Diego area shelter (good luck with the Eyes of Texas, people) https://www.npr.org/2022/04/13/1092091451/ukrainians-have-arrived-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-by-the-thousands

Is that what you are getting out of the links I am posting about Ukrainians fleeing war?

― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, April 13, 2022 2:14 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Also about unfair characterizations of Russia and unfair treatment of Russian classical music iirc

The cultural Boycott of Russian cultural work that has nothing to do with Putin is worth noting here, as it is bundled up with other types of sanctions.

A thread on the significance of Viktor Medvedchuk's capture by Ukraine, announced last night. Medvedchuk, who is a close personal friend of Putin, fled house arrest after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, and had been in hiding since. 1/16https://t.co/LqMfPhRmSe pic.twitter.com/ngDKoPWGql

— Zoya Sheftalovich (@zoyashef) April 13, 2022

Quite the checkered past:

https://neweasterneurope.eu/2017/06/07/the-trump-campaign-and-putin-s-agents-of-influence-the-case-of-viktor-medvedchuk/

The Russian Navy’s Black Sea flagship has suffered major damage and the crew has abandoned the ship, state media said late Tuesday in reports following Ukrainian claims of hitting the ship with a missile strike.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed the mishap on RTS Moskva (121), a ship in the country’s Black Sea Fleet, according to state-run outlet TASS.

The crew of the Moskva the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet was severely damaged and the crew abandoned ship, the Russian Defense Ministry told TASS.

A fire broke out on the ship, causing ammunition to detonate, according to TASS. State media did not elaborate on the cause of the fire.

Oh yeah, that Russian warship, The Guardian reminds me:

Russian warship famously defied by Ukrainian troops on Snake Island seriously damaged after strike in Black Sea

US President Joe Biden earlier announced an additional $800m in military assistance to Ukraine including heavy artillery ahead of a wider Russian assault expected in eastern Ukraine.

The package, which brings the total military aid since Russian forces invaded in February to more than $2.5 billion, includes artillery systems, artillery rounds, armoured personnel carriers and unmanned coastal defence boats, Biden said in a statement after a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

...he new package includes 11 Mi-17 helicopters and 18 155mm howitzers, along with 40,000 artillery rounds, counter-artillery radars, 200 armoured personnel carriers and 300 additional Switchblade drones.

It will be the first time howitzers have been provided to Ukraine by the United States.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said some of the systems, like the howitzers and radars, will require additional training for Ukrainian forces not accustomed to using American military equipment.

“We’re aware of the clock and we know time is not our friend,” Kirby said when asked about the speed of deliveries.

It seems Finland and Sweden are on track to possibly joining NATO. It also seems clear that Putin places a higher priority on getting a chunk of Ukraine over whatever happens with NATO expansion. That looks like a big problem with the Mearsheimer view that Russia's invasion was all about NATO expansion.

Well, this new username is barely a day old and NOW you say this.

Going to have to try to fit "If NATO expansion lasts more than 4-6 hours, call your general" within the Procrustean bed of ILX character limits.

pretty sure Putin's intentions before the invasion don't exactly match his current intentions

Pretty sure Putin didn't see any of this coming.

From Moscow Times---Guardian and others also reporting:

A stretch of Russian railroad near the Ukrainian border was destroyed on Tuesday morning, the region’s governor announced.

The destroyed railroad comes after several Russian border regions including Belgorod raised their “terror” threat level to “yellow,” the second-highest in a three-tier system, as Russia’s nearly seven-week invasion of Ukraine shifts its focus toward eastern Ukraine.

Special-operations unit destroys bridge in Kharkiv region as Russian convoy crosses, claims Ukraine
From CNN's Olga Voitovych in Lviv

A Ukraine special-operations unit destroyed a bridge as a Russian convoy crossed it while it headed toward Izium in southeastern Kharkiv region, the Command of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed in a statement Thursday.
...The statement claimed that the Ukrainian unit destroyed the bridge with an explosive charge as a convoy of a Tiger armored vehicle and several trucks crossed it.

CNN could not independently verify the claim. Ukrainian forces destroyed a key bridge in the Kyiv region to slow the advance of Russian forces in the opening days of the war.

Investigating a bridge before crossing it seems like War 101 to me but

Whoops

Russia’s defense ministry admits the Moskva cruiser, the flagship of its Black Sea fleet, has sunk.

They claim there was an explosion from a munitions accident on board and it sank in a storm.

Ukraine says it managed to sink the ship in a missile strike.https://t.co/EyBwFZS3SE

— max seddon (@maxseddon) April 14, 2022

How to troll

Russian warship, what are you sinking?

— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) April 14, 2022