ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I remember sketchy pols and *some* right-wing militias, but mainly that NATO started providing more arms and training because of Russian incursions, grabbing Crimea, setting up little "states" in the East recognized by almost nobody, and continuing the war in the Dombas etc. to this day---not sitting back all peaceful 'til NATO's Nazi Frankenstein suddenly rose up over thar in the wheat, as some in Europe and the US still believe.

2014 is when groups like Right Sector other Nazis/fascists in Ukraine were a part of the happenings on Maidan square, and due to their organized nature had an outsized role in fighting back against the government forces. When I hear people talking about "Ukrainian Nazis" in good faith, this is what I assume they're referring to (or those kinds of groups' activities in Ukrainian society/politics after 2014). And of course, the not-good-faith Russian narrative was pretty much all Nazis, all the time, from 2014 on.

2004 is trickier, but you could do some creative ret-conning and also dig up some vile extremist nationalist rhetoric and actions, tying them (fairly or not) to the demonstrations and Orange Revolution. For instance, a couple years before 2004 I'd read claims of Ukrainians forcing people in parts of Crimea to stop speaking Russian, and other stories with similar themes about a growing nationalist backlash against all things Russian. That seemed more like a natural consequence of the very recent and traumatic Soviet and Russian imperial past, but you could spin it as a country descending into exclusionary fascist barbarism if you were so inclined.

Remember too that from the Russian nationalist perspective, like our friend Tima with the article from above, there is little to no difference between the terms "Nazi" and "anti-Russian."

Monster thread from a guy known for them but it seems to be a useful summary/analysis

Why Russia is losing this war?

First I'll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I'll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It gives context for current events and helps to predict further Russian actions🧵 pic.twitter.com/uQqYVLENwe

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) April 6, 2022

Worth pointing out that Maçães was indeed part of the Portuguese government that pledged to "go even further than the troika" in establishing austerity measures, so his point isn't so much "why did you have us suffer then?" and more "why aren't you letting your people suffer more now?".

― Daniel_Rf, Tuesday, 5 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Fair enough though these positions are 'one rule for Berlin, another for Lisbon'.

Had a look at that Galeev thread and it sounds like bollocks to me. Too much on the USSR army, I'm not convinced its that relevant and doesn't answer how it has really changed or otherwise during Putin's time.

Are you a military analyst?

It’s just that a lot has happened in the 30 years since the dissolution of the USSR.

And Xyz was engaging with you in good faith, I mean are *you* a military analyst?

We're all military analysts. Galeev has his hobbyhorses but based on the actual results so far it sure seems like the overall military planning on the Russian side was, how you say, wanting, and probably still is. Beyond that, who knows?

The ruble has retraced all of its post-invasion decline. Not to underestimate the real damage that sanctions are doing, but interesting to see given that the initial fall was taken as evidence of the extent of the effects.

Are you a military analyst?

― Comrade Caviar, Колбаса Комиссариат (MoominTrollin), Wednesday, 6 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Galeev doesn't seem to be, for one. Though he is pretty long-winded, like you.

And yeah I don't see how the USSR army picking potatoes has to do with anything that is happening today.

@Boring

And Xyz was engaging with you in good faith

Which time during the last month was that? When he implied I'm a warmongering (pro)Ukrainian nationalist, that I'm not "fooling anyone" about what I'm "really happy about," or that I "made up" unverified stories which I took pains to refer to as unverified, while writing about the quite well-documented events around them?

Honestly, I should have just let this one go, but coming as it did in the wake of his own (good faith?) skepticism of my "military analyst" qualifications, it presented itself as a particularly irresistible target of opportunity.

xxpost Read some piece the other day that that was because of an intervention that is screwing up other parts of the economy, so a bit of a robbing Peter to pay Paul situation.

Galeev doesn't seem to be, for one. Though he is pretty long-winded, like you.

And yeah I don't see how the USSR army picking potatoes has to do with anything that is happening today.

http://i.imgur.com/FG2MmjL.jpg

Honestly, I should have just let this one go, but coming as it did in the wake of his own (good faith?) skepticism of my "military analyst" qualifications, it presented itself as a particularly irresistible target of opportunity.

― Comrade Caviar, Колбаса Комиссариат (MoominTrollin), Wednesday, 6 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

You are so good for holding back.

If the concern is for something in the here and now:

Two things to note here. U.K. MOD map also has Russian forces almost all gone from northern Ukraine. They are also putting more stress on the time needed to reequip the withdrawn forces. Sensible. This is not easy. If the Russians send those troops quickly, it’s a sign of panic. https://t.co/rQRBIrA1FQ

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 6, 2022

Thanks for the map, Ned. (Let's have more maps to balance tweets and infighting.) So, a surge to the East of all troops and gear in-country, plus the new conscripts just ordered up, plus several weeks ago a BBC Arabic correspondent said word in Syria was that mercenaries from there were going to Ukraine April 1, another such correspondent said more Chechens ("Chechens fighting Chechens," because Ukraine international legion), Wagners---all piling in there, and who's in charge, or is chaos at least part of the plan not plan?

Moomin you bring absolutely nothing interesting in your endless dumps of Twitter threads and 2010 era image macros.

I don't follow anybody's Twitter threads here, but/and don't object.

(Also don't follow any of the Ukraine twitter threads my friends email, just trying to keep up with the the news)

...Revised estimates are that 29 of Russia’s battalion tactical groups – the smallest operating unit of its forces – are now “combat non-effective”, from an invading force estimated to be at about 125 battalions – roughly 75% of Russia’s total army.

Nato and western analysts believe Russia is now determined to consolidate its gains in the south and south-east, with the Kremlin “reshaping its narrative” so it can redefine its idea of victory.

It already controls a land corridor stretching from Mariupol along the sea of Azov to the southern Kherson province and to Crimea. Its next targets appear to be the strategic towns of Sloviansk, which Russian forces and separatists held in 2014, Kramatorsk and Sievierodonetsk. Any assault is likely to run into major resistance from the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine’s military, however, have not so far been able to reinforce their own forces in the Donbas, said one western official, because they are still attempting to secure areas retaken from Russian troops, and need to defend Kyiv against any surprise attempt to retake the capital.

Russia has stepped up its attacks from strongholds in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, occupied for eight years by pro-Kremlin separatists. Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of the Ukrainian-controlled area of Donetsk oblast said on Wednesday there had been intensive enemy shelling.

Ten high-rise buildings in Sievierodonetsk were shelled and on fire, he said. Russian troops also attacked the city of Vuhldar, south-west of Donetsk. A Russian war plane bombed an aid distribution point, Kyrylenko said. Two civilians were killed and five wounded...

rhiy Haidai, the head of the Luhansk regional military administration, predicted Russian offensive was likely to start “in three to four days”, once they had relocated reserves. “We are observing the constant arrival of new forces, both equipment and personnel” he said, emphasising that Ukraine’s armed forces were ready to fight back.

About 30,000 civilians are still in frontline Lysychansk, with a smaller number in Sievierodonetsk, he said.

NATO head predicts Ukraine conflict could continue "for a long time": Although Russia is now concentrating its assault on eastern Ukraine, NATO has seen “no indication” that Putin's aim of controlling the whole country has changed, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday.

Speaking to reporters before a meeting in Brussels of foreign ministers of NATO allies, Stoltenberg also warned the war in Ukraine could last for years.

“We have seen no indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and also to rewrite the international order, so we need to be prepared for the long haul,” he said. “We have to be realistic and realize that this may last for a long time, for many months or even years.”
The foreign ministers of NATO countries are meeting Wednesday and Thursday to discuss ramping up support for Ukraine.

As long as Ukraine can hold out using its own military personnel I think NATO countries would be very happy to be their supplier of munitions and equipment. Humanitarian aid into Ukraine should present no problems either. The masses of refugees might prove a harder political problem for NATO, but not in the short term.

From the POV of any country but Russia, the best of the likely outcomes might be withdrawal and consolidation of the Russian forces into Donbas, a sharp, but short, contest over the territorial corridor to Crimea that Russia is hoping to seize, quickly reaching a stalemate that can be regularized via diplomacy. Then, a period of stability while Ukraine rebuilds. This would not hopefully not be contingent on NATO removing all sanctions, but simply reflect the battlefield realities achieved by Ukraine.

Looks like they've had to start fessing up a bit to their public

TASS: "Russia suffered significant losses during a special military operation in Ukraine, Dmitry Peskov said.

"We have suffered significant losses of troops, this is a huge tragedy for us," the presidential press secretary said."

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) April 7, 2022

O’Brien with an as-it-stands breakdown

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-military-strategy-russian-failure-kyiv/629514/

And I have kept thinking how remarkable it is how relatively faceless Ukrainian command seems, in a good way, like they're just there to do the job. Useful piece:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901

Interesting article about volunteers in the Ukraine "foreign legion":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/ukraine-foreign-legion-vetting/

Putin sympathizer Le Pen getting fairly likely to win, and then/either way:

Washington fears that a Le Pen in the Élysée would upset this delicate balance. Her victory could then prompt other European leaders — some of whom were already nervous about getting tough on Russia — to bail on the alliance as well.

Some Biden aides believe that even if Macron manages a narrow reelection, it could still have a chilling effect on European leaders who may worry about their own eventual political future against populists less toxic than Le Pen. That fear may only be exacerbated if the war between Russia and Ukraine becomes a protracted conflict that lasts months and months, resulting in higher energy prices across Europe, a continent dependent on Moscow for energy.

xpost re:

NATO head predicts Ukraine conflict could continue "for a long time": Although Russia is now concentrating its assault on eastern Ukraine, NATO has seen “no indication” that Putin's aim of controlling the whole country has changed, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday.
Speaking to reporters before a meeting in Brussels of foreign ministers of NATO allies, Stoltenberg also warned the war in Ukraine could last for years.

“We have seen no indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and also to rewrite the international order, so we need to be prepared for the long haul,” he said. “We have to be realistic and realize that this may last for a long time, for many months or even years.”
The foreign ministers of NATO countries are meeting Wednesday and Thursday to discuss ramping up support for Ukraine.

much more:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-06-22/index.html
(my April 2 post)

Read the news that Boris Johnson has met with Zelenskiy in Kyiv with a slight worry that the former might inadvertently give away the latter's location.

That was more of a worry when the attack was on, I suspect.

Whereas the latter giving away the former's location is only to be encouraged.

He emits a slime trail that can he tracked by satellite

So Putin has appointed Gen. Aleksander Dvornikov (“the Butcher of Syria”) as chief commander. He’s had lots of practice reducing cities to rubble, deploying chemical weapons, and generally overseeing the wholesale slaughter of civilians in Chechnya and Syria. That’s the basic boilerplate I've been seeing in multiple reports today. Does this guy have any particular strategic talents beyond these points?

Hope the Ukrainians figure out his cell phone provider.

At what point does the US say fuck it and get soldiers on the ground?

you're welcome to think that way, but "fuck it, let's go to war" is (**checks notes**) abysmally stupid.

I agree that it’s stupid. It’s just agonizing that no one is stepping in in a real way.

An interesting example of orientalism (a variation on the theme of 'Russians have a slavish mentality whereas Ukrainians are freedom-loving'). Probably would not be worth debunking but lest people say I don't spend enough time on this platform, let's take a look... https://t.co/0qDETrAUR8

— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) April 13, 2022

And in Poland..

Ukrainian women who were raped by Russians and left to Poland cannot have abortions there. Under Polish law, abortion is allowed in case of rape, but there is no criminal case yet
Psychologists in Poland are convincing her that a new life is wonderful. They destroys lives of both

— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) April 13, 2022

Russia has also defaulted on its debt.

It's a terrible situation. Thankfully, there are volunteers in Poland already offering to drive women seeking abortions to Berlin and back.

Also bad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/stop-matching-lone-female-ukraine-refugees-with-single-men-uk-told

I don't really get the point of your incessant "the rest of Europe is no angel either" posts

https://www.rfu2022.org/en/

Here is a link to the volunteer organization I mentioned upthread (offering round trips to Berlin for pregnant rape victims to get an abortion can be added to the below listing of what they do):

Since February 26, we have been meeting refugees at Ukrainian border crossings into Poland. We work as collective and our team consists of translators, lawyers, social workers, psychologists, drivers and porters. We collect and dispatch humanitarian aid, arrange all of its logistics, evacute people out of Ukraine and help them find shelter in safe countries.

There are also multiple links/options there for anyone looking to donate.

I don't really get the point of your incessant "the rest of Europe is no angel either" posts

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 13 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Is that what you are getting out of the links I am posting about Ukrainians fleeing war?

Yup.

I guess we have to start a new thread for things that happen to Ukrainians in other countries

I don't really get the point of your incessant "the rest of Europe is no angel either" posts

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 13 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Lol