ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis

Worth pointing out that Maçães was indeed part of the Portuguese government that pledged to "go even further than the troika" in establishing austerity measures, so his point isn't so much "why did you have us suffer then?" and more "why aren't you letting your people suffer more now?".

1/14 How an ordinary Russian TV viewer (one of whom I currently am) sees it.

I learned about the monstrous events in Bucha yesterday morning from the news that Russia was convening the UN Security Council in connection with the massacre by Ukrainian Nazis in Bucha.

— Alexey Navalny (@navalny) April 5, 2022

Pick:

4/14 “Listen how consonant the English word "butcher" and the name of the city "Bucha" are. This is how the Western audience was subconsciously prepared for this provocation."

— Alexey Navalny (@navalny) April 5, 2022

7/14 The endlessly squealing anchors and their "experts" are revving up their fury and have long since surpassed the military in their aggressiveness.

— Alexey Navalny (@navalny) April 5, 2022

8/14 They demand a war to the bitter end, storming Kyiv, bombing Lviv. Even the prospect of a nuclear war does not scare them. They mop up the floor with their fellow Putinists on live television if they as much as hint at the fact that peace talks are a good thing.

— Alexey Navalny (@navalny) April 5, 2022

That last one reminds me of my state's current Republican primary campaigns, re who's the Trumpiest.
Maybe I should have put all that on one of the Russia threads, but agree with WaPo editorial (not paywalled) that Buchla is a turning point---although I was almost there re my prev post
Yeah, the stills and vids make it clear: bodies on the sidewalk with hands tied behind their backs, reports of children's mutilated bodies---and in paywalled WSJ field reports, refugees from Russian-held areas report "madness," no civil administration or even slick Final Solution, just random-seeming bursts of violence. Is Putin in charge? Does he want to be, of this?
Listening to On The Media interview, recorded earlier, of Gideon Rose, author of How Wars End, re Southeast Asian Wars of 50-70s, and many since explain that Putin's gotta be given a relatively smooth exit ramp, facesaving and all that: talk of regime change, and, since interview, genocide, not helpful---but Putin and/or his absence of control, if that's what it is, makes/make the conception of a sane endgame (in the acceptable bullshit ceremonial sense) harder everyday.

― dow, Sunday, April 3, 2022
duhhh, but before that I was inclined toward the received notion that yes Putin needs offramp, and announced regrouping to the East, aimed at closing date in early May, just in time for the Parade, is what he really really wants/will deign to settle for, that and some current holdings in the South, like throughway formerly known as Mariupol---and even Zalenskyy seemed to acknowledge that these could be acceptable, with held areas subject to negotiation for x years.
But now, as the particulars of Buchla sink in tenaciously, with the aforementioned reports of "madness" vs. administration in held areas---seems like the push-back needs to get more intensive, to degrees of pre-emption: something more vs. troop transport, as well as the ongoing vs. tanks, artillery, missiles: risky, but since he, they, whoever is and/or isn't in charge, keep escalating anyway...(or not even that: we don't yet know, in re-taken areas, how much of this has been going on for how long, how typically)
And I guess that I just don't know---but jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez

Not thinking of direct NATO involvement re boots on the ground in Ukraine, or handing off planes if that's too much, but more better weapons---

This guy was talking about nuking a week ago:

One of the main #Russian propaganda channels threatens a nuclear attack on #Warsaw and war on the #Baltic states pic.twitter.com/t6DTROxNqD

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 23, 2022

This next guy apparently looked at the Wikipedia entry for Operation Pike and decided the only thing wrong with it was that it was never carried out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pike

UPDATE: Delyagin, who earlier called for the bombing of Azerbaijan, steps back and apologises.

"I certainly apologize to everyone who was frightened or offended or offended, both in Russia and in Azerbaijan, and in Armenia, and in other countries, in my words," Delyagin said. https://t.co/Pd5xAmSFNk

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) March 29, 2022

He apologized later though. Thank you, Delyagin, very cool!

And those who keep it positive---all about Denazification, yay---get to look that much more reassuringly reasonable by comparison.

And Delyagin is only human, after all. Gettin' upset, as who does not?

lonely guy just thinkin baout things

And those who keep it positive---all about Denazification, yay---get to look that much more reassuringly reasonable by comparison.

Oh don't worry, they're getting in on the fun too:

1/4 This is Timofei (Tima) Sergeitsev, Mr.Genocide, 🇷🇺 author of recent manifesto of #GenocideOfUkrainians in @ria_novosti titled “What to do with Ukraine”.
The collective punishment is kinda Tima’s theme. Tima wants to rid Ukraine of Ukrainians. Even of the name “Ukraine”. pic.twitter.com/CrFdTTGV5H

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) April 5, 2022

https://uacrisis.org/en/justification-of-genocide-russia-has-openly-declared-its-desire-to-exterminate-ukrainians-as-a-nation

Back in April last year, we wrote about the inevitability of the denazification of Ukraine. We don’t need Nazi, Bandera Ukraine, the enemy of Russia, and the West’s tool for the destruction of Russia. Today, the issue of denazification has moved into a practical plane.

The terms of denazification can in no way be less than one generation, which must be born, grow up and reach maturity under the conditions of denazification. The Nazification of Ukraine continued for more than 30 years, beginning at least in 1989 when Ukrainian nationalism received legal and legitimate forms of political expression and led the movement for “independence” towards Nazism.

It's hilarious to me how he could easily have picked a time like 2014 or even 2004 and there'd be many reasonable people in the West nodding their heads in solemn understanding about Ukrainian Nazis...but he picks the "let's do it and be legends" variant and goes back straight to 1989 because we Russians just CANNOT FUCKING ABIDE an independent Ukraine, at any time, and fuck what you Europeans and Americans think. Remarkable.

The collective West itself is the designer, source, and sponsor of Ukrainian Nazism, while the Western Bandera cadres and their “historical memory” are only one of the tools for the Nazification of Ukraine. Ukronazism carries not less, but a greater threat to the world and Russia than German Nazism of the Hitlerite version.

Ukraine, as history has shown, is impossible as a nation-state, and attempts to “build” one naturally lead to Nazism. Ukrainism is an artificial anti-Russian construction that does not have its own civilizational content, a subordinate element of an alien and alien civilization.

*liquidation of armed Nazi formations (which means any armed formations of Ukraine, including the Armed Forces of Ukraine), as well as the military, informational, educational infrastructure that ensures their activity;

*installation of the Russian information space;

*the withdrawal of educational materials and the prohibition of educational programs at all levels containing Nazi ideological guidelines;

*mass investigative actions to establish personal responsibility for war crimes, crimes against humanity, the spread of Nazi ideology, and support for the Nazi regime

*lustration, publication of the names of accomplices of the Nazi regime, involving them in forced labor to restore the destroyed infrastructure as punishment for Nazi activities (from among those who will not be subject to the death penalty or imprisonment)

It's wild out here in this Русский мир!

he could easily have picked a time like 2014 or even 2004 and there'd be many reasonable people in the West nodding their heads in solemn understanding about Ukrainian Nazis
Really?? Don't remember it being the received wisdom to that extent, but maybe I just didn't get the memo. What was, uh, the deal--?

I remember sketchy pols and *some* right-wing militias, but mainly that NATO started providing more arms and training because of Russian incursions, grabbing Crimea, setting up little "states" in the East recognized by almost nobody, and continuing the war in the Dombas etc. to this day---not sitting back all peaceful 'til NATO's Nazi Frankenstein suddenly rose up over thar in the wheat, as some in Europe and the US still believe.

2014 is when groups like Right Sector other Nazis/fascists in Ukraine were a part of the happenings on Maidan square, and due to their organized nature had an outsized role in fighting back against the government forces. When I hear people talking about "Ukrainian Nazis" in good faith, this is what I assume they're referring to (or those kinds of groups' activities in Ukrainian society/politics after 2014). And of course, the not-good-faith Russian narrative was pretty much all Nazis, all the time, from 2014 on.

2004 is trickier, but you could do some creative ret-conning and also dig up some vile extremist nationalist rhetoric and actions, tying them (fairly or not) to the demonstrations and Orange Revolution. For instance, a couple years before 2004 I'd read claims of Ukrainians forcing people in parts of Crimea to stop speaking Russian, and other stories with similar themes about a growing nationalist backlash against all things Russian. That seemed more like a natural consequence of the very recent and traumatic Soviet and Russian imperial past, but you could spin it as a country descending into exclusionary fascist barbarism if you were so inclined.

Remember too that from the Russian nationalist perspective, like our friend Tima with the article from above, there is little to no difference between the terms "Nazi" and "anti-Russian."

Monster thread from a guy known for them but it seems to be a useful summary/analysis

Why Russia is losing this war?

First I'll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I'll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It gives context for current events and helps to predict further Russian actions🧵 pic.twitter.com/uQqYVLENwe

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) April 6, 2022

Worth pointing out that Maçães was indeed part of the Portuguese government that pledged to "go even further than the troika" in establishing austerity measures, so his point isn't so much "why did you have us suffer then?" and more "why aren't you letting your people suffer more now?".

― Daniel_Rf, Tuesday, 5 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Fair enough though these positions are 'one rule for Berlin, another for Lisbon'.

Had a look at that Galeev thread and it sounds like bollocks to me. Too much on the USSR army, I'm not convinced its that relevant and doesn't answer how it has really changed or otherwise during Putin's time.

Are you a military analyst?

It’s just that a lot has happened in the 30 years since the dissolution of the USSR.

And Xyz was engaging with you in good faith, I mean are *you* a military analyst?

We're all military analysts. Galeev has his hobbyhorses but based on the actual results so far it sure seems like the overall military planning on the Russian side was, how you say, wanting, and probably still is. Beyond that, who knows?

The ruble has retraced all of its post-invasion decline. Not to underestimate the real damage that sanctions are doing, but interesting to see given that the initial fall was taken as evidence of the extent of the effects.

Are you a military analyst?

― Comrade Caviar, Колбаса Комиссариат (MoominTrollin), Wednesday, 6 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Galeev doesn't seem to be, for one. Though he is pretty long-winded, like you.

And yeah I don't see how the USSR army picking potatoes has to do with anything that is happening today.

@Boring

And Xyz was engaging with you in good faith

Which time during the last month was that? When he implied I'm a warmongering (pro)Ukrainian nationalist, that I'm not "fooling anyone" about what I'm "really happy about," or that I "made up" unverified stories which I took pains to refer to as unverified, while writing about the quite well-documented events around them?

Honestly, I should have just let this one go, but coming as it did in the wake of his own (good faith?) skepticism of my "military analyst" qualifications, it presented itself as a particularly irresistible target of opportunity.

xxpost Read some piece the other day that that was because of an intervention that is screwing up other parts of the economy, so a bit of a robbing Peter to pay Paul situation.

Galeev doesn't seem to be, for one. Though he is pretty long-winded, like you.

And yeah I don't see how the USSR army picking potatoes has to do with anything that is happening today.

http://i.imgur.com/FG2MmjL.jpg

Honestly, I should have just let this one go, but coming as it did in the wake of his own (good faith?) skepticism of my "military analyst" qualifications, it presented itself as a particularly irresistible target of opportunity.

― Comrade Caviar, Колбаса Комиссариат (MoominTrollin), Wednesday, 6 April 2022 bookmarkflaglink

You are so good for holding back.

If the concern is for something in the here and now:

Two things to note here. U.K. MOD map also has Russian forces almost all gone from northern Ukraine. They are also putting more stress on the time needed to reequip the withdrawn forces. Sensible. This is not easy. If the Russians send those troops quickly, it’s a sign of panic. https://t.co/rQRBIrA1FQ

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 6, 2022

Thanks for the map, Ned. (Let's have more maps to balance tweets and infighting.) So, a surge to the East of all troops and gear in-country, plus the new conscripts just ordered up, plus several weeks ago a BBC Arabic correspondent said word in Syria was that mercenaries from there were going to Ukraine April 1, another such correspondent said more Chechens ("Chechens fighting Chechens," because Ukraine international legion), Wagners---all piling in there, and who's in charge, or is chaos at least part of the plan not plan?

Moomin you bring absolutely nothing interesting in your endless dumps of Twitter threads and 2010 era image macros.

I don't follow anybody's Twitter threads here, but/and don't object.

(Also don't follow any of the Ukraine twitter threads my friends email, just trying to keep up with the the news)

...Revised estimates are that 29 of Russia’s battalion tactical groups – the smallest operating unit of its forces – are now “combat non-effective”, from an invading force estimated to be at about 125 battalions – roughly 75% of Russia’s total army.

Nato and western analysts believe Russia is now determined to consolidate its gains in the south and south-east, with the Kremlin “reshaping its narrative” so it can redefine its idea of victory.

It already controls a land corridor stretching from Mariupol along the sea of Azov to the southern Kherson province and to Crimea. Its next targets appear to be the strategic towns of Sloviansk, which Russian forces and separatists held in 2014, Kramatorsk and Sievierodonetsk. Any assault is likely to run into major resistance from the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine’s military, however, have not so far been able to reinforce their own forces in the Donbas, said one western official, because they are still attempting to secure areas retaken from Russian troops, and need to defend Kyiv against any surprise attempt to retake the capital.

Russia has stepped up its attacks from strongholds in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, occupied for eight years by pro-Kremlin separatists. Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of the Ukrainian-controlled area of Donetsk oblast said on Wednesday there had been intensive enemy shelling.

Ten high-rise buildings in Sievierodonetsk were shelled and on fire, he said. Russian troops also attacked the city of Vuhldar, south-west of Donetsk. A Russian war plane bombed an aid distribution point, Kyrylenko said. Two civilians were killed and five wounded...

rhiy Haidai, the head of the Luhansk regional military administration, predicted Russian offensive was likely to start “in three to four days”, once they had relocated reserves. “We are observing the constant arrival of new forces, both equipment and personnel” he said, emphasising that Ukraine’s armed forces were ready to fight back.

About 30,000 civilians are still in frontline Lysychansk, with a smaller number in Sievierodonetsk, he said.

NATO head predicts Ukraine conflict could continue "for a long time": Although Russia is now concentrating its assault on eastern Ukraine, NATO has seen “no indication” that Putin's aim of controlling the whole country has changed, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday.

Speaking to reporters before a meeting in Brussels of foreign ministers of NATO allies, Stoltenberg also warned the war in Ukraine could last for years.

“We have seen no indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and also to rewrite the international order, so we need to be prepared for the long haul,” he said. “We have to be realistic and realize that this may last for a long time, for many months or even years.”
The foreign ministers of NATO countries are meeting Wednesday and Thursday to discuss ramping up support for Ukraine.

As long as Ukraine can hold out using its own military personnel I think NATO countries would be very happy to be their supplier of munitions and equipment. Humanitarian aid into Ukraine should present no problems either. The masses of refugees might prove a harder political problem for NATO, but not in the short term.

From the POV of any country but Russia, the best of the likely outcomes might be withdrawal and consolidation of the Russian forces into Donbas, a sharp, but short, contest over the territorial corridor to Crimea that Russia is hoping to seize, quickly reaching a stalemate that can be regularized via diplomacy. Then, a period of stability while Ukraine rebuilds. This would not hopefully not be contingent on NATO removing all sanctions, but simply reflect the battlefield realities achieved by Ukraine.

Looks like they've had to start fessing up a bit to their public

TASS: "Russia suffered significant losses during a special military operation in Ukraine, Dmitry Peskov said.

"We have suffered significant losses of troops, this is a huge tragedy for us," the presidential press secretary said."

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) April 7, 2022

O’Brien with an as-it-stands breakdown

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-military-strategy-russian-failure-kyiv/629514/

And I have kept thinking how remarkable it is how relatively faceless Ukrainian command seems, in a good way, like they're just there to do the job. Useful piece:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901

Interesting article about volunteers in the Ukraine "foreign legion":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/ukraine-foreign-legion-vetting/

Putin sympathizer Le Pen getting fairly likely to win, and then/either way:

Washington fears that a Le Pen in the Élysée would upset this delicate balance. Her victory could then prompt other European leaders — some of whom were already nervous about getting tough on Russia — to bail on the alliance as well.

Some Biden aides believe that even if Macron manages a narrow reelection, it could still have a chilling effect on European leaders who may worry about their own eventual political future against populists less toxic than Le Pen. That fear may only be exacerbated if the war between Russia and Ukraine becomes a protracted conflict that lasts months and months, resulting in higher energy prices across Europe, a continent dependent on Moscow for energy.

xpost re:

NATO head predicts Ukraine conflict could continue "for a long time": Although Russia is now concentrating its assault on eastern Ukraine, NATO has seen “no indication” that Putin's aim of controlling the whole country has changed, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday.
Speaking to reporters before a meeting in Brussels of foreign ministers of NATO allies, Stoltenberg also warned the war in Ukraine could last for years.

“We have seen no indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and also to rewrite the international order, so we need to be prepared for the long haul,” he said. “We have to be realistic and realize that this may last for a long time, for many months or even years.”
The foreign ministers of NATO countries are meeting Wednesday and Thursday to discuss ramping up support for Ukraine.

much more:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-06-22/index.html
(my April 2 post)

Read the news that Boris Johnson has met with Zelenskiy in Kyiv with a slight worry that the former might inadvertently give away the latter's location.

That was more of a worry when the attack was on, I suspect.

Whereas the latter giving away the former's location is only to be encouraged.

He emits a slime trail that can he tracked by satellite

So Putin has appointed Gen. Aleksander Dvornikov (“the Butcher of Syria”) as chief commander. He’s had lots of practice reducing cities to rubble, deploying chemical weapons, and generally overseeing the wholesale slaughter of civilians in Chechnya and Syria. That’s the basic boilerplate I've been seeing in multiple reports today. Does this guy have any particular strategic talents beyond these points?

Hope the Ukrainians figure out his cell phone provider.