ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I wrote a piece on the amazing effort of the Ukrainian railways over the last month, to take millions of people to safety and continue delivering aid to the east. 64 of their employees have died since the war started https://t.co/oTmWUJui8P (with a photo essay by Jelle Krings)

— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) March 31, 2022

Some commentary on internal political developments in Ukraine, from Strana.news, banned by Zelensky last year. Nationalist politicians, esp. Poroshenko, versus the Zelensky govt:

“Against the backdrop of a real war, a Facebook, “sofa” war is flaring up around joining / not joining the Alliance. Part of the Ukrainian elite is trying to regain positions in politics lost after the start of full-scale hostilities, to return to the big game. And, I must say, the opposition is capable of inflating a scandal around NATO , as a result of which the deal, if it is concluded, may fail, despite the fact that the Alliance has made it clear that it is not ready to accept Ukraine...Maybe it is not worth reviving the pre-war game of inflating contradictions and weakening power in the current situation of our common country? - political scientist Vadim Karasev comments to "Strana".

As recent days have shown, even hints of a future rejection of NATO have caused serious discontent among the supporters of Euro-Atlantic integration, who are many in the Ukrainian establishment. This stratum is very influential, although heterogeneous, including ex-President Petro Poroshenko, former Defense Minister and leader of the Civic Position party Anatoliy Hrytsenko, a number of journalists...including a number of those close to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (which, by the way, suggests the position of the leadership of the Ministry). The essence of the criticism is that no agreements with Russia are worth a penny, since Russia has never fulfilled them (for example, the Budapest Memorandum).

Aleksey Arestovich, adviser to the head of the Office of the President, [responded to this criticism] most clearly. He called his counterparts "idolaters", as well as "motherfuckers." He said that back in 2019 he predicted a big war with Russia over NATO. "In the video...I clearly say: the price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia...Ok, we paid our price. And NATO?

What specific assistance has NATO provided to Ukraine ?
What does it mean that Ukraine was not invited to an emergency NATO meeting on February 26?
What forms and ways of ensuring the security of Ukraine should we all find if we want to join NATO, but it does not want us?"

So far the only thing Russia and Ukraine are close to agreeing on is neutrality. And, apparently, that is precisely why, on this point, Zelensky's opponents inside the country began to strike.

Summary: Ukraine will avoid a new catastrophe if it starts to face the truth and take action based on the need to achieve victory in a long and difficult struggle. Betting that Russia is about to collapse because of our hatred and Western sanctions is fraught with our own defeat," Yury Romanenko said.

https://strana.news/news/382482-pochemu-vlast-i-oppozitsija-ssorjatsja-iz-za-nato.html

A follow-up article describes Zelensky's recent decree on a "unified television policy under martial law" as a response to nationalism-pushing TV channels in "Poroshenko's sphere of influence."

According to Strana's sources close to the Office of the President and Eurosolidarity, the reason for the decision of the National Security and Defense Council on a single broadcast (across the networks) are really the intensified calls of "zrada" - "treason" - around the NATO issue.

"What was Poroshenko trying to achieve? He hoped that this intensification would push Zelensky to introduce Poroshenko's people as advisers to the negotiating group, and ideally into the negotiating group itself...They were "led on" in a polite fashion. There were meetings at the middle level, but not at the highest level."

"Due to the fact that they were/felt "led on", they decided to turn up the heat, and began to intensify talk of "zrada" (treason). Including on TV channels. After that, the decision of the National Security and Defense Council appeared. And this is Poroshenko's last warning to stop shaking the situation and declaring "zrada" in the negotiations," the sources say.

Political analyst Vadim Karasev admits that the authorities may increase pressure on the Poroshenko group to force it to moderate attacks on Zelensky in the context of negotiations with Russia.

"It’s as if they were given to understand that now they need to be very careful in criticism. Indiscriminate criticism undermines the internal situation, which plays into the hands of the enemy. In general, it's a strange statement: some channels are patriotic, but those that run (state-mandated) war news marathons are not. You can't, in the middle of a war, run out in front of the train and shout "treason!" when you don’t know all the details of the negotiations, and even more so the situation on the fronts, as the supreme commander knows.

https://strana.news/articles/analysis/382606-otkljuchit-zradu-kak-v-op-otvetili-ukazom-na-napadki-poroshenko.html

Well that was a rout and a half

Unbelievable.
Two full-fledged axes of attack just collapsed and were abandoned within 1 or 2 days. They just left having achieved nothing.
We expected Russians to get entrenched to prevent Ukraine from reinforcing Donbas, but leaving completely, en masse… unbelievable.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 1, 2022

EXCL: China staged a huge cyberattack on Ukraine’s military and nuclear facilities in the build-up to Russia’s invasion, according to intelligence memos obtained by The Times https://t.co/2JMkcl2iac

— Larisa Brown (@larisamlbrown) April 1, 2022

Wow. Seems big if true.

I respect @PhillipsPOBrien's work, & I recommend his book How the War Was Won to everyone (seriously, go read it). I also think he makes some great points in this article. However, there are some key misconceptions that matter for improving military analysis. 1/ https://t.co/jJ8enIJfcM

— Christopher M. Dougherty (@C_M_Dougherty) April 1, 2022

Some commentary on internal political developments in Ukraine, from Strana.news, banned by Zelensky last year. Nationalist politicians, esp. Poroshenko, versus the Zelensky govt:

Strana is arguably Ukraine’s least reliable news outlet but the issue is valid even if the details might be dodgy. I was reminded the other day where the Russian line about Zelenskiy’s government being maniacal drug addicts probably came from:

“European future of Ukraine” — a group directly associated with Poroshenko’s reelection campaign — is promoting a video in which his opponent & frontrunner Zelenskiy is hit by a truck. The video ends with suggestion he’s a drug addict & the message: “Everyone has their own way.” pic.twitter.com/OCBXy3ZRce

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 11, 2019

The big question, given their excessive influence, their links with militias and organised crime, their corruption and their underhand attempts to destabilise Zelenskiy prior to the war is how people like Poroshenko, Kolomoisky, Akhmatov, etc fit into any vision of Ukraine as an aspiring EU democracy. It seems impossible to continue on the path to European integration without somehow limiting their control.

Seems right.
More about Russians and Chernobyl (Ukraine Foreign Ministry claims were on Twitter, Energoatam's, re digging in the forest, on Telegram, among the links in this npr piece:

...When they left, Ukraine's ministry added, the Russian troops looted the power plant, taking "kettles, lab equipment, and radiation." They also took the captured Ukrainian national guard members who had been at the facility when Russia invaded in late February.

In an update on conditions at the Chernobyl plant, Energoatom, Ukraine's state power company, said on Friday that all control and monitoring systems were operating normally, despite the removal of several containers and spare parts. Ukrainian workers who remained at the plant throughout the occupation to monitor it had remained safe from radiation, it added.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Thursday that it's still working to determine the veracity of reports that Russian soldiers received high doses of radiation in the notoriously contaminated Chernobyl Exclusion Zone during more than a month of occupation.

Energoatom has said Russian troops left the site after digging trenches and building fortifications in the Red Forest — an area it says is the most heavily polluted in the entire zone. Without providing details, the company said a panic broke out when the first signs of radiation sickness emerged. On Friday, the company reiterated that the greatest threat to the occupiers was likely posed by inhaling radioactive dust disturbed by their actions.

This morning, Ukraine would neither confirm nor deny responsibility for fire at Russian fuel depot (allegedly because two helicopters, one shot down). But now they are outright denying it. So this may or may not be the long-US-predicted Russian false flag, though that was supposedly going to be about chemical attacks---fuel depots do explode sometimes, w/o outside interference.

CNN has a video of what definitely looks like helicopters attacking that fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia

If it turns out to be Ukrainian helicopters (who else?), I say good for them

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/04/01/belgorod-fuel-depot-attack-berman-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

False flag operations are designed for maximum political effect. Torching your own fuel depot during an ongoing war just doesn't fit that profile even remotely, since it wouldn't justify Russia doing anything it wasn't already doing or prepared to do without whatever political cover this might conceivably give them.

Good points yall--so why deny? To gaslight/piss off the Russians even more? Seems a bit reckless, unless it's like, considering all the Russian violence alongside negotiations anyway, what the hell, since just playing defense is getting old.

In a coy way, you could say that attacking a fuel depot near the border IS a defense strategy, since that fuel is likely being used in the Russian offensive

Russia currently has more than 100,000 soldiers in Ukraine, shooting, bombing, and shelling. The idea that Ukraine mustn't upset them by attacking a fuel depot across the border is nonsense. I can't see any good reason to disclaim a successful attack, if they did it. Sure there could be some minor external propaganda value in maintaining that Ukraine has not attacked Russia, despite every provocation, but set that against the internal propaganda value of saying Ukraine is now 'taking the war to Russia'. If they say they didn't do it, my guess is they didn't.

Xpostx8 @ ShariVari

Thank you for the clarification re: Strana, and also if there are Russian-language Ukrainian sources you can recommend for future reference, I would be grateful.

Also thank you for your thoughtful and insightful contributions in this thread, both from 2004/2014 and today's events.

The big question...is how people like Poroshenko, Kolomoisky, Akhmatov, etc fit into any vision of Ukraine as an aspiring EU democracy.

OTM, as well as your earlier statement about a future for Ukraine that minimizes the chances for right wingers or outright fascists to take power or influence politics going forward.

...Meanwhile, the U.S. is rushing to provide Ukrainian civilians with gas masks, hazmat suits and other materials, though Kyiv could decide to send this protective gear to its military. How much has already been sent or the U.S. plans to send in total, though, remains unclear...

The process to get personal protective equipment, known as PPE, to Ukraine is a classic interagency tangle. The Department of Health and Human Services is providing the equipment, with two officials saying some of it is coming from the Strategic National Stockpile.

The U.S. Agency for International Development, whose Administrator Samantha Power traveled to Poland in February, then sends the assistance through existing supply lines into Ukraine and reimburses HHS for the equipment. As USAID is involved, the PPE must be for civilian — not military — use. The intended destination for the materials is Ukraine’s Ministry of Health, which made the request for assistance of the U.S. and its allies.

Whether the Ministry then provides the PPE to Ukraine’s military is a local decision.

From Mary Ilyushina's (syndicated) WaPo account of of one woman's family escaping forced relocation:

The convoy was eventually taken to Taganrog, a Russian port city on the Sea of Azov. Only there were the people from Mariupol told that their final destination would be Vladimir, a town more than 600 miles to the east

But this woman said that she convinced the Russians that "she had a friend (near Taganrog) who was willing to house her family." After being allowed to leave the convoy they got on a train to Moscow , presently moved on from there to St. Petersberg and uhhh eventually "crossed over to the EU on foot." Not much detail about that, at all, but apparently they left Mariupol with money, unlike most of their fellow citizens. Russians seemed very strict sometimes, hazy others.

Several stories with context on a lesser known decree regarding trade unions from earlier in March:

https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/ukraine-democratic-socialists-challenge-zelenskys-attack-workers-political-parties

Days earlier, parliament passed a bill to deregulate labour rights...which was signed into law by Zelensky on March 23.

The law allows: employers to cancel collective labour agreements and increase the working week from 40 to 60 hours; the dismissal of workers on sick leave or vacation, as well as the sacking of trade union members without the consent of the trade union committee; women to be assigned to physically strenuous and underground labour, currently prohibited by Ukraine’s labour laws; and the suspension of an employment contract “in connection with the military aggression against Ukraine”, with responsibility for the payment of workers’ wages put on “the State committing military aggression” (Russia), not the employer.

Social Movement leader Vitaliy Dudin wrote: “Restrictions imposed to protect the public interest must be proportionate to the achievement of the objective pursued. The (law) is designed to strengthen defence capabilities, but establishes the possibility of exploitation of workers at enterprises of any industry throughout Ukraine. In other words, the emergency rules provided by it can be used not to carry out work in the interests of defence, but to increase the profits of the owners.”

An interview with an anonymous journalist and trade unionist:

https://therealnews.com/economic-devastation-and-political-repression-a-trade-unionists-view-from-inside-ukraine

“A”: You need to understand that the attack on trade unions has been going on for 30 years, since the collapse of the USSR. During the Soviet era, trade unions were subject to control by the Communist Party and could not be compared to the free trade unions we know in the US or Europe. After the collapse of the USSR, we in Ukraine hoped that we could build new trade unions that would really protect the rights of workers. However, since Ukraine achieved independence, instead of reforming them, successive governments have tried to establish their control over the trade unions. Moreover, after the mass privatization of enterprises, new factory owners and industrialists began to establish control over trade unions...

But then, in 2019-2020, when people began to spontaneously organize protests against the increase in utility tariffs and rising prices, and when trade unions began to join these movements, the government immediately announced that this was subversive activity serving the interests of Russia...Almost all trade unions opposed these legislative restrictions on labor rights, and the government failed to implement them.

And now, using the implementation of martial law, and facing a situation where many enterprises have been destroyed by the war and millions of people have been forced to evacuate to safe regions or even other countries, the Ukrainian parliament has adopted the most severe restrictions on labor rights and trade unions...The severity of the situation also comes down to the fact that the unions cannot go on strike now, nor can they openly oppose these draconian measures.

Later in the interview, he suggests future policies that could prevent extreme nationalists and/or fascists from taking power in Ukraine:

In order to stop this war, and in order to avoid its repetition in the future—not only in Ukraine, but anywhere in Europe—it is necessary to demand from governments, including the US government, that they reconsider the political and economic integration of the former Soviet republics into modern political and economic associations. All these years, since gaining independence, Ukraine has been left on the margins of global integration. This contributed to the flourishing of corruption, selective justice, and the spread of poverty and misery in Ukraine. The same thing happened in Russia, where these processes have been intensified by Putin’s authoritarianism.

The governments of the leading democracies turned a blind eye to this for decades, only pretending to show concern for these very real problems. In fact, Western corporations at this time were making billions of dollars of investments in Ukraine and Russia, cashing in on cheap labor, cheap raw materials, and the ability to easily resolve any issues with our governments through corrupt, backroom deals. For the sake of maintaining these profits, controlling the labor movement, and tamping down labor protests, they often supported very reactionary political forces in our countries and literally nurtured authoritarian rulers.

Another story on the law:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-suspends-labour-law-war-russia/

Western corporations at this time were making billions of dollars of investments in Ukraine and Russia, cashing in on cheap labor, cheap raw materials, and the ability to easily resolve any issues with our governments through corrupt, backroom deals. For the sake of maintaining these profits, controlling the labor movement, and tamping down labor protests, they often supported very reactionary political forces in our countries and literally nurtured authoritarian rulers.

the same old story of neo-colonialism in a nutshell

They are bringing the dance on home now, why nurture authoritarianism in other countries when you can do so in good ole' USA for fun and profit.

Not seeing any news site (like with reporters) w news of what greenleft claims to be Law of Ukraine “On the Organisation of Labour Relations in Martial Law” (7160)

From the legislature (Verkhovna Rada), passed on March 15th:

https://www.rada.gov.ua/en/news/News/220575.html

Defined special labor regulations during the martial law (Reg. No. 7160)

Signed by Zelensky March 23rd:

https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/39225

23.03.2022 Повернуто з підписом від Президента (Returned with the signature of the President)

https://ukranews.com/en/news/843640-zelenskyy-signs-law-on-labor-relations-during-martial-law

https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/813875.html

So much for basic Google. How did you find all that?

I searched google news at first but that didn't bring me (very many) results, then I searched by the number of the bill indicated in some of the results, and ended up at the Verkhovna Rada site, where I was able to confirm the passing and eventually the signing as well.

I had tried the number of the bill---anyway, giving workers even less incentive to stick around.

Grim news the last couple of days, obviously. Some thoughts from OBrien

Reflections on the state of the war, attrition, atrocity and why Russia is heading for an even greater disaster than expected (and I wrote from the start I didnt see how they could win this war)--all compounded by their own choices which are speeding up their army's dissolution.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 3, 2022

i'm sorry, but i can't trust anyone whose first name is Phillips, and then to add P. OBrien, on top of that, i just can't do it

Understandable biases.

i appreciate it, but i'm going to wait until stone phillips reports. at least he has his name on the right way

god. the news from Bucha, after the russian army withdrew.

jesus. there is video and it is chilling. at least 270 civilians dead, many is mass graves, at least some tortured, it appears.

Yeah, the stills and vids make it clear: bodies on the sidewalk with hands tied behind their backs, reports of children's mutilated bodies---and in paywalled WSJ field reports, refugees from Russian-held areas report "madness," no civil administration or even slick Final Solution, just random-seeming bursts of violence. Is Putin in charge? Does he want to be, of this?
Listening to On The Media interview, recorded earlier, of Gideon Rose, author of How Wars End, re Southeast Asian Wars of 50-70s, and many since explain that Putin's gotta be given a relatively smooth exit ramp, facesaving and all that: talk of regime change, and, since interview, genocide, not helpful---but Putin and/or his absence of control, if that's what it is, makes/make the conception of a sane endgame (in the acceptable bullshit ceremonial sense) harder everyday.

Fuck face saving. Putin needs to be in the sock in The Hague alongside GW Bush and Cheney

They were innocent people - noncombatants. They died because they were Ukrainians. My neighbors, perhaps those I stood behind in the grocery store, those who ran next to me in treadmills at the gym. People I passed while walking my dog, or picking out a Christmas tree.

— Zepla 🌙🐇🌱🇺🇦 (@Xepla) April 3, 2022

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas

https://ara.tv/ypw7h Link to: "At least 20 bodies seen in one street in town near Kyiv" - Al Arabiya News (in English)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bodies-of-mutilated-children-among-horrors-the-russians-left-behind-5ddnkkwp2

(same article, no paywall): https://archive.ph/DWVsn

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/02/world/ukraine-russia-war#grim-signs-of-a-russian-retreat-are-visible-on-the-outskirts-of-a-village-west-of-kyiv

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas

"An interesting interview by Greg Yudin which is very congruent with my hypothesis that the war would be radically transforming Russian politics from Caesarism/Bonapartism towards a more mobilizationist, ideological, hegemonic regime. He also alludes that this transformation could be one of the underestimated domestic reasons for the war. The use of concepts like fascism and totalitarianism is, of course, debatable. However, debating this is extremely difficult now after the pictures from Kiev suburbs left by the Russian forces:" - Volodymyr Ishchenko:

https://www.akweb.de/politik/putin-war-in-ukraine-a-fascist-regime-looms-in-russia/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNS1MS2uNsM

Russia has called for a security council meeting to talk about these - what they call - hoaxes and provocations by Ukraine, because they deny shooting civilians and since Zelenskii has a TV background everything we see is fake and all those victims are hired actors, is the explanation they're going with. hmm.

hmm, well that sounds like alex jones to me

i saw some fucked up shit in those videos

⚡ Official Statement by @mod_russia ⚡

All the photos and videos published by the Kiev regime in Bucha are just another provocation.

Facts 👉 https://t.co/L91uGBs4r5

❗ This confirms conclusively this is another #hoax by the Kiev regime for the Western media. pic.twitter.com/VO3umSNwkE

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) April 3, 2022

NO TYPICAL CADAVER STAINS

not going to trust corpse science from someone who got an MFA

lol

Or a Russian Mod

So stupid.

German philosopher Adorno once said that writing poetry after Auschwitz is barbaric. I add today that naively admiring Russian "culture" after Mariupol and Bucha, after Donbas and Syria, after Gulags and Stalinism, is barbaric too

— Volodymyr Yermolenko (@yermolenko_v) April 3, 2022

I've got some news about Ancient cultures too

forget it, xyzzzz; it's twittertown

It's not just twitter, concerts of pieces by Russian composers have been cancelled. Film premieres of Russian films have been stopped at the last min.

Nowhere near the priority ofc, but it's irritating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B48CDvoJ8Tw

He doesn't deserve to be wide anymore.

So stupid. Nowhere near the priority ofc, but it's irritating.

Germany now says it needs time to readjust its economy to energy sanctions. Funny. I was in the Portuguese government 10 years ago. What happened to “faster is less painful”?

— Bruno Maçães (@MacaesBruno) April 4, 2022

What happened between Germany and Portugal in 2012? When I google it, I only get results about soccer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis

Worth pointing out that Maçães was indeed part of the Portuguese government that pledged to "go even further than the troika" in establishing austerity measures, so his point isn't so much "why did you have us suffer then?" and more "why aren't you letting your people suffer more now?".