ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I've pointed this out before but this war has unfolded in a very Trumpy fashion. just seems to be a lot of general incompetence and self-owning on Russia's side stemming from some misguided idea that everything was gonna be easy

Except thenUS military is well equipped, funded, and disciplined, so our wars. while incredible self-owns, unfold a bit differently.

I guess it's tempting to think of Putin as some master strategist but I really do not understand what he's doing now. like between this and that "Hunter Biden tied to Ukrainian biolabs" story it's like he's just trying to communicate directly with Tucker Carlson. which maybe makes sense before an election but not after you started a war in which you are getting your ass kicked

Looking where the light is.

gish galloping towards the horizon

It’s almost like he’s a Russian op

Panelist on Russian state TV got worried about the future of Tulsi Gabbard, who he said was canceled by every social media network.

Another panelist replied: "But she still appears on [Tucker] Carlson."

He retorted: "I don't know if he'll manage to run away. I'm not joking." pic.twitter.com/29Pnehb0LD

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) March 24, 2022

They may be making the classic mistake of ascribing to espionage that which can be explained by malice and cupidity.

was pretty funny to see Tulsi get all incredulous about her Instagram engagement plummeting literally the day after Russia switched it off

Holy shit, the fragging has actually begun:

BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) March 25, 2022

I guess it's tempting to think of Putin as some master strategist but I really do not understand what he's doing now. like between this and that "Hunter Biden tied to Ukrainian biolabs" story it's like he's just trying to communicate directly with Tucker Carlson. which maybe makes sense before an election but not after you started a war in which you are getting your ass kicked

Feels consistent with his previous playbook, tbh - throw a lot at the wall and see what sticks, exploit whatever divisions you can find, create a lot of white noise. No it's not a stance that will help with getting him the support of international public opinion but you gotta figure he knows that ship has sailed.

Not suggesting this makes him a master strategist, as a master strategist...wouldn't be in this war.

https://www.bombreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/enemy-at-the-gates.jpg

Has Vlad never seen The Enemy at the Gates?? The Russian was the hero!!

NEW: Ukrainian strikes left a Russian Alligator-class landing ship partially submerged and set fire to fuel storage depots in 🇷🇺-occupied Berdyansk.

The strikes also struck ammo depots, UK defense intel said yday. Ukraine has begun mounting counter-attacks this week.

📷:@Maxar pic.twitter.com/xbrQgHWrdO

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 25, 2022

UN says more than half of Ukraine’s children (4.3 million) have been displaced in a month of war. Stolen childhoods.

Two Ukrainian girls have joined my daughter’s preschool class this week (I live in Poland). I’m sure there will be many more.

This is significant:

Russia's military held a big briefing this afternoon, announcing the war was entering a 'second phase'.

Here's a summary of how Russia, at this point in the war, is depicting what it set out to do, why, and where we're at. (relaying their words, pls don't shoot msnger) pic.twitter.com/1kS2VRK8iI

— Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva) March 25, 2022

It looks like the current intention is to solidify the position in the East ahead of any ceasefire talks and declare ‘mission accomplished’.

making it up as they go along

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9MU2oXzSL4

the plan was to distract Ukrainian forces while Russia/ Donetsk/ Luhansk made territorial gains in the east

the Russian soldiers who provided this distraction aren't going to appreciate this explanation

For the first time in weeks, the Pentagon assessed today that Kherson, a port city in southern Ukraine, is no longer under full Russian control.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 25, 2022

Russian Forces have been seen Falling Back from the City and the areas near the City en-masse over the Last few Days as Ukrainian Force have very quickly advanced on them, Defense Officials now believe that Russian Forces are moving East to try and Take/Hold the Donetsk Region.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 25, 2022

Російські мусора упаковали велосипед "Україна" на 15 діб.

Цей велосипед - єдиний, хто там протестував. pic.twitter.com/SPvr5NOk2v

— Volodymyr Harets (@VHarets) March 13, 2022

Police in Moscow detain a lone protesting bicycle.

Accused of pedaling lies

only straight cycles are allowed in Russia, no bi

Alperovitch on the Russian MOD briefing and his take on how it probably plays out from here:

Quick thread on today's very important developments from the Russian MOD briefing

Essentially we are reaching - as they themselves acknowledged today - the new phase of the war and it is a combination of #1 and #2 of my predictions below 🧵 https://t.co/TR3OUg8n40

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 25, 2022

In unconfirmed Ukrainian intelligence news: mass panic and property selloffs continue in Crimea among FSB and government officials.

Meanwhile, in totally normal and cool Russian news: traffic closings along the Sevastopol-Kerch highway, first on a bridge in Sevastopol itself, then along the center of Simferopol (coincidentally right before another bridge), as well as the army takeover of the "Gelendzhik Radiocentre" on the other side of the Kerch bridge. Could all add up to nothing, or could be preparation to move armed forces out of Crimea and block the Kerch bridge to deny Russian civilians a way out, as the rumors hold.

The Krasnodar branch of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise "UVO of the Ministry of Transport of Russia" took under protection the bridge over the Belbek River on the Simferopol-Kerch highway, as well as the Gelendzhik radio center of the Azov-Black Sea basin. This was announced by the director of the FSUE Krasnodar branch Vyacheslav Bury..

In the capital of Crimea, restrictions on the passage of vehicles in the very center will be introduced.
According to the mayor's office of Simferopol, from 6 am on March 29 to 3 am on April 3, the passage on Sevastopolskaya Street will be closed - between the intersections with Kozlov Street and Kirov Avenue.

For those who may be wondering what does Gelendzhik, across from the Crimea, have to do with all this? Location, location, location.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEhEnAHzxqc

that linked assessment by alperovitch seems accurate to me. the public briefing today by the Russian military brass was not setting the stage for a big escalation of the war, but instead clears the way for cutting their losses, pulling back and retrenching.

the real world effect of the west's financial sanctions against Russia seems much harder to predict now than the military outcome does. how Putin weathers this disaster is anyone's guess.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-jk-rowling-cancel-culture-b2043978.html

The leader went on to liken “cancel culture” Nazis trying to burn books in the 1930s, a theme he has returned on a number of times during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

“We remember the footage when they were burning books,” he said.

“It is impossible to imagine such a thing in our country and we are insured against this thanks to our culture.

Inconceivable, even.

https://i.imgur.com/o7v5ArM.jpg?1

(Government status for our native Russian Language)- Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko"

Vitrenko is the Chairwoman of the recently suspended Progressive Socialist Party.

Jan. 25, 2022 (EIRNS)—On Jan. 19, the Central Committee of the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine (PSPU) issued an Open Letter ripping apart the fraud of those pushing for confrontation with Russia on the pretext of allowing the people of Ukraine to “write their own future.”

https://i.imgur.com/pc70Xsu.jpg?1

The Kremlin stashed away billions before invading Ukraine. China helped them hide it. NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with economist Benn Steil about his investigation into Russian assets.

They may be making the classic mistake of ascribing to espionage that which can be explained by malice and cupidity.

That story of Putin sitting in the KGB office in Dresden... Moscow is silent while East Germany collapses around him. It's a good story, but the background surrounding the Dresden office was that it wasn't particularly a prestige espionage gig compared with Berlin. Dresden was instead central to several major smuggling/black market networks, organized crime, etc. The only takeaway I've ever had from seeing Putin *ugh* ascend through the years is that his actions have only been that of an organized crime boss. Irrational, lashing out. In three moves, any one of them would have smashed that 4th-dimensional chess set to pieces.

Elvis, I was referring to the Russian tv show presenter's assumption that Tucker would have to "run away" from America, presumably because he's either a Russian op guy, or would be chased out by enraged Americans. If only.

But you're right, Putin seems to be, or act like, a local organized crime guy who made it big. Dresden was no Berlin, but he still enjoyed all the perks that came with being a trusted member of the Party, and the KGB. He was also much closer to the West - and those alluring brand names that took on almost a mythical quality for many Soviet citizens. He may not have been a millionaire, but he was certainly far from the material realities of internal Soviet life in the 80's. It seems like his Dresden days served him in good stead when he made it back to Russia, too, where he quickly made a small fortune for himself through a deal where he took the money, but never delivered the goods.

His more recent obsession with spending hundreds of millions of dollars on idiotic things like yachts, palaces, and Italian furniture also seems to stem from this earlier period, as though he never quite got over the thrill of being able to buy expensive brand name goods from a foreign country. Sad!

From a certain angle, Putin's purported fascination with Dugin, Ilyin, and back into the Cosmists has no more depth than the mafia boss who pays off the Catholic church who excuses him from whatever it is he is going to do anyway.

no more depth than the mafia boss who pays off the Catholic church who excuses him from whatever it is he is going to do anyway.

Basically:

https://i.imgur.com/qaOilkA.jpg?1

So, after Friday's "We're going back to our roots on the new album"(Dombas), today they announce they're using all abandoned tanks as bait around Kyiv, and then, for the first time, bomb central Lyiv, also apparently taking out fuel depot, judging by color of smoke, says MSNBC field correspondent. This while Biden and other NATO leaders a few 100 kilometers away in Poland. This fuck you stuff is all Gen. Putin is good at, that and kidnapping, incl. now mass in Maripoul, and it's bad enough.

Moving to the Nixon-Cambodia solution (was he satisfied?):

A British intelligence report said Russian forces were relying on indiscriminate air and artillery bombardments rather than risk large-scale ground operations, a tactic the report said could limit Russian military casualties but would harm more civilians in Ukraine.

Underscoring how seriously Wagner considers its role in the conflict in Ukraine, senior Wagner leaders are expected to deploy to the separatist enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk to coordinate efforts on behalf of Russia, the U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential operational assessments.

Wagner is relocating not only some of its mercenaries in Libya and Syria to Ukraine, but also artillery, air defenses and radar that the group was using in Libya, the official said. The Russian military is supporting these transfers by providing military cargo aircraft to relocate personnel and equipment.

While Wagner’s numbers are tiny compared with the more than 150,000 troops that Putin amassed on Ukraine’s borders and eventually sent into the country, their presence is an indication that Putin is taking a page from his playbook in 2014, when the Kremlin deployed Russian mercenaries, mostly veterans of the Russian military, to augment the forces of rebel fighters in eastern Ukraine.

Earlier this year, Western intelligence services detected the first small groups of Wagner mercenaries leaving Libya and Syria and arriving in Russian-controlled Crimea. From there, they filtered into the rebel territories.

But their initial performance on the battlefield was decidedly inauspicious, as they faced stiffer-than-expected resistance from Ukrainian soldiers. As many as 200 Russian mercenaries had been killed as of late February, the U.S. official said.

The initial purpose of the deployment of the mercenaries was the subject of debate. Some European and U.S. officials said the mercenaries were positioned in the rebel territories to engage in sabotage and stage false flag operations intended to make it seem as if Ukrainian forces were attacking civilian targets.

But a Ukrainian military official said just before the invasion began that the mercenaries were primarily brought in to fill out the ranks of the separatist forces, to make it seem as if local fighters were leading the charge.

Now the mercenaries are taking on a more direct combat and leadership role in eastern Ukraine, the U.S. official said.

topical:

Гражданская оборона (Гроб)* - "Винтовка Это Праздник"
Civil Defense*- "A Rifle is a Holiday " (turn on subtitles)

*their acronym spells out "Coffin" in Russian

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieuZYj5o7_8

"Sign in to confirm your age"? No thanks.

Ukraine is willing to become neutral and compromise over the status of the eastern Donbass region as part of a peace deal, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday, even as another top Ukrainian official accused Russia of aiming to carve the country in two.

Zelenskiy took his message directly to Russian journalists in a video call that the Kremlin pre-emptively warned Russian media not to report, saying any agreement must be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum.Zelenskiy spoke in Russian throughout, as he has done in previous speeches when targeting a Russian audience.
Zelenskiy said Russia's invasion had caused the destruction of Russian-speaking cities in Ukraine, and said the damage was worse than the Russian wars in Chechnya.

"Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point," Zelenskiy said.
...Zelenskiy said Ukraine refused to discuss certain other Russian demands, such as the demilitarisation of the country.
Speaking more than a month after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, Zelenskiy said no peace deal would be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals.

He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a "compromise" over the eastern Donbass region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014.

But even as Turkey is set to host talks this week, Ukraine's head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said Russian President Vladimir Putin was aiming to seize the eastern part of Ukraine.

"In fact, it is an attempt to create North and South Korea in Ukraine," he said, referring to the division of Korea after World War Two. Zelenskiy has urged the West to give Ukraine tanks, planes and missiles to help fend off Russian forces.

Zelensky did not go there (but maybe thinking of supporting an insurrection in post-agreement East, as US Gov might be)(will be very tricky though, re Vlad)

The repercussions of Russia's catastrophe are coming. Armenia had banked for years on Russia providing them some support. Azerbaijan seems to think they can now do what they want. God help us, I hope there is not another war. https://t.co/EqPFJejgSs

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 26, 2022

I think this is the Zelensky interview referenced above (with English subs):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0jyxLQ2Z5o

Unfortunately the English subs cut out at 47 minutes in.

A view from another angle

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/27/fled-moscow-american-journalist-putin-00020470

xp MoominTrollin - i was thinking of another GROB song recently, “Everything is going according to the plan”..

Thanks RC, great read.

@scanner_darkly

Another banger.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-and-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-suffer-symptoms-of-suspected-poisoning-11648480493?mod=mhp

A while ago, a co-worker came up with the challenge of "tuning into NPR halfway through them interviewing a band, and trying to figure out which band it was amidst the cliched answers being thrown around."

I imagine those cliched, all-too-familiar quotes are very similar to the decision-making process behind this latest operation.

"Nobody was more disappointed with our last effort than we were, and we realized we had to go back to basics and really take some time to re-evaluate ourselves as a group."

"It's not easy to start again at square one, but we had to remember why we started doing this in the first place."

"We sat down and had a lot of hard, earnest conversations about how we got here; we took a good look at the aspects of our past where we succeeded, and decided to build on those foundations."

"We hope that you, the audience, enjoy this as much as we enjoyed making it."

TLDR: their earlier stuff was better.

https://i.imgur.com/S9d3dwr.jpg?1
https://i.imgur.com/RcrHECl.jpg?1

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/17/russian-flag-appears-on-salisbury-cathedral-year-on-from-novichok-attack

“We wanted to get back to the sound of four guys in a room …”