ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

This was always the challenge prior to the invasion too. Even with a democratic mandate to seek a lasting peace, the risk of internal opposition and potential unrest made implementing the Minsk agreements virtually impossible. The minute a peace deal is agreed, the factions pushing for total victory become Zelenskiy’s problem rather than Russia’s.

There needs to be absolute clarity that Ukraine’s allies won’t recognise any undemocratic effort to remove him and a massive aid and reconstruction effort to sweeten any agreement.

While Russians try to present temporary suspension of several political parties in Ukraine as a "Stalinist purge", important members of said parties are cutting ties with those separatists who make open pleas for collaboration. pic.twitter.com/GoB31L8KDh

— Anatoly Voronin (@qorachius) March 20, 2022

He recently received a message from longtime Russian collaborator Oleg Tsarev, who had come out of hiding in Crimea and openly backs the "denazification operation:"

Our troops (sic) are under Kryvyi Rih. I await word from the mayor, Yuri Vilkul. Him and Oleksandr Vilkul were my fellow party members and have always taken a pro-Russian position. To collaborate with the Russian army - means to preserve your city and the lives of its citizens. I hope the mayor makes the right decision.

To which Oleksandr answered:

"Fuck you and your masters, traitor."

how do you hold a referendum...

as best you can. obviously a solid, moderately long term cease fire would have to be part of the deal. but it's not even worth attempting unless the deal is one with a high odds of getting widespread popular support. no chance of this unless the Russians are eagerly seeking a way to back out with a fig leaf to cover their retreat.

Ukraine took back a suburb of Kyiv, and some other things are decidedly not in Russia's favor---but this is not going to get better---from PBS NewsHour correspondent in Ukraine:

Ukraine refused again on Monday to surrender the industrial port city of Mariupol. The Russians have besieged the city and offered safe passage for hundreds of thousands of residents who have been trapped for weeks without food, water or power..Russia warns anyone still in the city will face — quote — "military tribunal"...Some evacuees paraded under Russian state TV before they were forced to give up their Ukrainian passports and they were taken into Russia, reportedly to be held in camps, or they were forced to a school in separatist-held territory, where Putin and separatist leaders have pride of place.

Senior adviser Oleksiy Arestovych admitted on Friday that Kyiv could not recapture Mariupol.

Oleksiy Arestovych, Senior Adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy (through translator): There is currently no military solution to Mariupol. You can blame me, the presidential office, the president personally and so on, but there is no solution.
Correspondent: And in this war's epicenter, residents still trapped or being forced to starve or submit.

not for us to say

No, but--what could be gained or held on to, really by not surrendering? Some sense of national pride? Surrender would be controversial at best, and should be, but seems like this is just prolonging the agony, although there's a chance the prison camps would be their own kind of agony.
Something that's going to be publicly discussed---

Though I suppose that even if Kyiv put out the word to Mariupol, the citizens who are fighting there might continue as long as they could.

In re current claims about the stalled convoy force, from a Kyiv Independent writer

Absolutely not ready to confirm if the Ukrainian military are really surrounding the Russian group in the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle.
But what is true is that there have been intense fighting several nights in a row, and Ukrainian units were very active cleaning out Irpin.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 22, 2022

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tk3bfr/sbu_has_intercepted_a_russian_soldiers_phone_call/

Phone call from russian soldier to home. Subtitled in English.
Key points include 50% of troops have frost bite, they can't even bombed by own plane, "Worse than Chechnya", inadequate armored vest, "our commander told us the operation would be over in mere hours"

sorry for bad sentence construction there. should say "can't even transport their dead away, bombed by own plane"

About that xp Kyiv suburb:

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian forces fought off continuing Russian efforts to occupy Mariupol and claimed to have retaken a strategic suburb of Kyiv on Tuesday, mounting a defense so dogged that it is stoking fears Russia’s Vladimir Putin will escalate the war to new heights.
...Early Tuesday, Ukrainian troops drove Russian forces from the Kyiv suburb of Makariv after a fierce battle, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said. The regained territory allowed Ukrainian forces to retake control of a key highway and block Russian troops from surrounding Kyiv from the northwest.
Still, the Defense Ministry said Russian forces partially took other northwest suburbs, Bucha, Hostomel and Irpin, some of which have been under attack almost since Russia invaded nearly a month ago.

A Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss military assessments, said Ukrainian resistance has brought much of Russia’s advance to a halt but has not sent Moscow’s forces into retreat.

Western officials say Russian forces are facing serious shortages of food, fuel and cold weather gear, leaving some soldiers suffering from frostbite. Ukrainians have reported hungry soldiers looting stores and homes for food.
...Facing unexpectedly stiff resistance that has left the bulk of Moscow’s ground forces miles from the center of Kyiv, Putin’s troops are increasingly concentrating their air power and artillery on Ukraine’s cities and civilians.

Remarkable @BBCNews report: farmers in Vosnesensk ambushed 🇷🇺 forces as they approached the small community, halting their advance by blowing up the bridge, destroying all 🇷🇺 tanks vehicles w/ help from 🇬🇧 NLAW anti-tank weapons, inflicting heavy 🇷🇺 losses & full retreat#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/1Pu7HewKaG

— KT CounterIntelligence (@KremlinTrolls) March 22, 2022

That’s awesome (hopefully mostly accurate)

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/in-kharkivs-rubble-hatred-for-russia-is-strong/

The irony, Galina says, is that “Kharkiv is — or at least was ― a pro-Russian city! Everyone here speaks Russian and has family over the border.” But now sympathies for Russia have evaporated, replaced with burning hatred. Perhaps unexpectedly, it is here in the Russian-speaking east that you hear the most passionate denunciations of Putin and the Russian attack on Ukraine.

As we walked past a university building in central Kharkiv that had been blown to pieces by a GRAD rocket barrage, a local woman stopped me and pointed to the mess saying, “This was all built by imperial Russia! It’s Russian bombing Russian.”

Animosity toward Russia has sharpened among people in the east for two main reasons. First, eastern Ukraine has borne the brunt of the indiscriminate destruction that Putin has unleashed. Kharkiv and Mariupol have suffered brutal and cruel bombardments. The second factor is proximity to Russia — and not just in geographical and cultural terms. For many, this feels like a deep family betrayal, as if it is their siblings and cousins firing the shots. In some cases, it is.

The other excuse they use is: “ ‘It was the neo-Nazis who did this. Russians are here to liberate you from them,’ ” Galina fumes. “Well, all they’ve done so far is liberate us from our apartments!”

Example of said liberation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czDSjqKOHZk

Looks like the guesses are true:

Local authorities do confirm that Ukrainian armed forces have Russians in Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel locked in a pocket.
It remains to be seen how tight is the encirclement. Hopefully, the recent operations made Russians kiss their supplies goodbye along the Warsaw Highway.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 23, 2022

Probably doesn’t need to be said, but if true the Russians will have to move heaven and earth to break the encirclement and reestablish supply. Can’t see supplying such a large force by air. And who knows what they can fly in and out of Hostomel anyway.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 23, 2022

Meanwhile over at Mariupol

Senior commanders speaking like this is not a good sign for the morale of the army. This is supposed to be a professional army. https://t.co/1YDJqhQDIc

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 23, 2022

Exact quote from my Sunday School teacher when I was five

Think I've seen this video make the rounds before but seems to be very on the nose

Alexander Nezorov with a hilarious and uncannily accurate prediction of how Russia's war in Ukraine would turn out. https://t.co/Wtoh6lAlOR

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) March 23, 2022

And a reply from Eliot Cohen, the guy who wrote the 'Ukraine's winning' piece unperson quoted above:

Darkly hysterical in a distinctively Russian way, and amazingly, filmed in 2021 by a former journalist/MP/equitation instructor. Absolutely prescient, too. Includes one of my favorite Russian words: svoloch. Hint about meaning: Putin is a svoloch. https://t.co/IcNNa8UIUW

— Eliot A Cohen (@EliotACohen) March 23, 2022

I think that was posted in this thread before, however it's amazing and highly worth watching

https://wtvbam.com/2022/03/23/top-russian-journalist-defiant-in-face-of-fake-news-investigation/

Same guy:

The Investigative Committee law enforcement agency said it had opened a case against Nevzorov for posting on Instagram and YouTube that Russia’s armed forces had deliberately shelled a maternity hospital in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

Nevzorov said the case against him was meant as a signal to journalists in Russia that “the regime is not going to spare anyone, and that any attempts to comprehend the criminal war will end in prison”.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on Nevzorov’s specific case, but said the tough new law was justified by what he called the most brutal information war being waged against Russia.

Critical support for the brutal information war being waged against Russia.

xpost

"Amazingly prescient" in that he assumed an invasion of Ukraine would follow the same basic plot as the Chechnya conflict, but worse. He makes a lot of interesting points and his delivery is great tho.

Let the fraggings begin...

In retaliation for death of 50% out of 1,500 servicemen of his 37th Russian infantry brigade at #Makariv near #Kyiv, a Russian tankist with his tank ran over his brigade commander Col. Yuri Medvedev. He survived but his legs were broken. Source: #Ukraine journo R. Tsimbaliuk. pic.twitter.com/nE9Wgad1vB

— Victor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) March 23, 2022

Meantime another leading officer just outright killed in Mariupol (also where that deputy commander of the Black Sea fleet died)

https://t.co/t2TE7fCogO

— RichardPhippsArt (@RichardP_Art) March 23, 2022

suicide by invasion

Is there anything to this stuff about a plot by the oligarchs to replace Putin with Alexander Bortnikov? I only see British articles about it.

In the Russian-speaking media, the source for this story seems to be Ukrainian intelligence. Bortnikov is the head of the FSB, which makes this somewhat unlikely, but then again this kind of thing has been forecast as a more "realistic" scenario as opposed to a mass movement/revolution. Replacing Putin with an equally repellent strongman, but one "we can do business with," would probably work for the Russian elites as well as the wider world.

Had better be a strongman prepared to suck up god knows how much in reparations before the West will do business with them.

anything to this stuff about a plot by the oligarchs to replace Putin with Alexander Bortnikov?

When stories like that emerge from an "intelligence" agency, they might be true, but consider the source. otoh, it is easy to understand that in circulating such stories they seek to plant seeds of mistrust among Putin and his closest personal allies and seeds of uncertainty among those a bit lower down who carry out the orders of the ruling elite.

I agree, Aimless.

xpost@Matt #2

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/dawes

They've done it before for WWI German war debts, creating a self-licking ice cream cone with American loans to Germany which paid reparations to the Allies, who promptly used them to pay off war debts to America. It's doable as long as America doesn't have another Great Depression.*

If something like that doesn't happen, and Russia (and possibly Ukraine) are left to rebuild their economy and infrastructure with little to no American/Western financial backing, I'll see you all back here in 10 years or so to discuss the Russian invasion of Azerbajan and Turkmenistan.

*a big if

Getting interesting here

The amazing Ukrainians.

40K out of 190 K Russian troops killed, wounded, taken prisoner or missing (deserted). More than 20%

If anyone has the military prowess NATO needs today, it's Ukraine. https://t.co/4jcVtb9QyL

— toomas hendrik ilves (@IlvesToomas) March 23, 2022

If this is right; the Russian Army in Ukraine is now on the point of institutional failure. Expect more soldiers to stop fighting. https://t.co/SWje31KtXR

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 23, 2022

One thing that stuck out in that intercepted phone cal from the Russian soldier was that their orders were to not target civilians and how that was making the fight a lot harder.

It also sounds like the military commanders are probably waiting for things to fall apart and hoping someone else gets the blame

I could see invaders surrendering just to get a hot meal and some sleep

did these people really think this would be over in a day?

You're an 18, 19 year old conscript, you've only ever known Putin's Russia in one form or another...

Meantime, stuff like this happens.

#Ukraine: Some quite curious captures of equipment in #Mykolaiv Oblast; a BREM-1 armored recovery vehicle towing a IMR-2 military engineering vehicle, both captured by the Ukrainian Army from the Russian forces. pic.twitter.com/F44BGAewso

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 23, 2022

"up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, taken prisoner or are missing in Ukraine"

Isn't that like

"ticket prices from £5" ?

The ticket you actually buy turns out to cost a lot more than £5, and "up to 40,000" could mean anything below 40,000.

The phrase “fucked around and found out” springs to mind

And that was needlessly glib of me.

"up to 40,000" could mean anything below 40,000.

yes, but on the other hand an exponential distribution could mean anything above zero.

One thing that stuck out in that intercepted phone call from the Russian soldier was that their orders were to not target civilians and how that was making the fight a lot harder.

Not a dig at you, Keyes, but if their orders were to NOT target civilians, they've done a pretty shit job. There's videos circulating of tanks shooting at individual civilians as well as cars full of them. Until the last few days, there were constant news stories about civilians being shot when they tried to evacuate Mariupol using the humanitarian corridors - which were then also found to be mined. Or that story I linked above about Kharkiv, when they'd start shelling a few minutes after people came out of their shelter to stand in lines for food.

And when it comes to their artillery and air force targeting civilian infrastructure, the results speak for themselves.

Yeah, speaking of Mariupol, where Russians say everybody should leave, but picky about how (and at all, sometimes, as your post indicates):

A convoy of 11 empty buses — driving towards Mariupol to rescue fleeing Ukrainians — has been commandeered by Russian forces, according to the Ukrainian government.

The Russians have driven the buses, along with the original bus drivers and several emergency services workers, to an undisclosed location the government says.

...Recent days have seen several thousand people make the dangerous journey out of the city in private vehicles, en route to Zaporizhzhia, a city more than 200 kilometers (about 124 miles) away which is still in Ukrainian hands.

However, attempts to get empty buses into besieged Mariupol to collect people and bring them out have so far failed.

Just a whole lot of succinct points about significance of Mariupol:
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/23/1088113318/what-mariupol-means-ukraine-russia-military-campaign

No surprise at this point but anyway

We analyzed dozens of battlefield radio transmissions between Russian forces in Ukraine during the initial invasion of Makariv, a town outside Kyiv. They reveal an army struggling with logistical problems and communication failures: https://t.co/om3U9mGLtW

— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) March 23, 2022

Wow, that NYT video is gnarly... when they shoot that sedan with a little dog running by? Ugh

I'm on a couple of the Discord servers where the radio intercepts are piling up, and that NYT report is just a small sample of the chaos.

#Ukraine: What was once a potent Russian R-330ZH Zhitel jamming and radio reconnaissance station, now completely destroyed by Ukrainian fire.

It is notable that recently Ukrainian authorities specifically requested that citizens help them find these powerful systems. pic.twitter.com/vArxeBX5Ho

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 22, 2022

Up to 15,000 Russians soldiers have been killed in one month in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, two senior NATO military officials said. The officials made the estimate during a briefing with reporters on Wednesday.

The officials specified the range could be as low as 7,000 or as high as 15,000 in total Russian soldiers killed in the conflict so far. Their estimate is based on what Ukraine is telling them, what they know from Russia “intentionally or by mistake” and from “open source” information, one of the officials said.

“The estimate we have is based on what the Ukrainians tell us, what the Russian let us know, intentionally or by mistakes, because mistakes happen in a war, and on intelligence we get on open sources, we think that the Russians have lost between 7,000, up to maximum 15,000 dead,” the official said Wednesday.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces estimates that 15,600 Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict.

Overall, they estimate that there could be between 30,000 to 40,000 Russian soldiers either killed, wounded or missing altogether.

“Statistically in conflicts when you have one killed soldier, you generally have three wounded soldier, so if you go four fold, it would be, I would say between 30,000 to 40,000 losses, losses killed in action, wounded in action, prisoner of war are missing, you don’t know what happened to the soldier,” the official said.

Other US officials have estimated a similar range of as low as 7,000 and as high as 14,000 Russian soldiers killed, but they have expressed “low confidence” in those estimates.

Neither NATO nor the United States have troops on the ground in Ukraine, making it incredibly difficult to get an accurate estimate on the number of Russian casualties. An accurate tally could take weeks or even months and may only be possible after the fighting has ceased.
The Russian government has not put out a number of total soldiers killed in the conflict. The Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda published — then later removed — a report that the Russian Ministry of Defense had recorded 9,861 Russian Armed Forces deaths in the war in Ukraine.

The report from the tabloid originally read: "According to the Russian Defense Ministry, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed and 16153 wounded."

'We are too tired to be nervous': Some Ukrainian refugees return home, despite escalating Russian attacks
https://www.aol.com/news/too-tired-nervous-ukrainian-refugees-080018482.html

This doesn’t necessarily break new ground or get as blunt as it should, but it’s a valid perspective:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-failed-world-order-united-nations-nato-council-of-europe-vladimir-putin/

A wrinkle

The US and allies planned to support a Ukrainian insurgency after a swift Russian conventional victory. Now, they are struggling to sustain a Ukrainian Army that has held its ground and needs more ammo to fight a large-scale conventional war. https://t.co/jczDJzYGUt

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 24, 2022