ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Yeah, that's what I was thinking he might be doing, and I don't see how or where he could legally enforce a ban, with no parliamentary sessions or elections coming up soon, as far as I know---but sending a message to possible puppets, anyway (although yeah it does feel opportunistic)

re: Zelensky

Just a wild guess, but it seems like having pro-Russia parties with pro-Russia politicians around, at a time when you're being invaded by Russia, is probably not helpful. Especially when said politicians are not merely "sympathetic" to Russia or vaguely "Russophile," but are friends of and/or have connections with Putin and Alexander Dugin (aka the Russian Nazi whisperer).

Once again, just a guess. It could be that Zelensky is showing his true face and cracking down on all leftist parties in Ukraine in a blatant attempt to use this war to consolidate his own power - a tactic he might have picked up from a certain long-serving Russian president.

Trying to envision a scenario in which a tactical nuke is not used on Kyiv…

xp Just a wild guess, but it seems like having pro-Russia parties with pro-Russia politicians around, at a time when you're being invaded by Russia, is probably not helpful. Especially when said politicians are not merely "sympathetic" to Russia or vaguely "Russophile," but are friends of and/or have connections with Putin and Alexander Dugin (aka the Russian Nazi whisperer). Think we're all on the same page with this---though as for the other option you mention: maybe that's true as well, to an extent---but meanwhile, not nearly the main concern, of course.

FWIW, many of the Servant Of The People episodes revolve around President Goloborodko (Zelenskyy's character) playing off one suspicious oligarch against other suspicious ones without crossing too many moral corruption boundaries. Someone's paid politician gets a promotion without authorization and in the ensuing fracas, Goloborodko's reforms get through.

I haven't figured out who Ihor_Kolomoyskyi is supposed to be in the series (if at all), but if you stick around long enough to get to the full-length Servant Of The Nation / Sluga Naroda 2 it's a full-on lesson in Machiavellian politics - only told as a slapstick Hope/Crosby On The Road movie through Ukraine.

Trying to envision a scenario in which a tactical nuke is not used on Kyiv…

Wouldn't it be Mariupol?

Kinda nervous about this 5 AM deadline

I hear you.

Sotsialniy Rukh comrades cut through the bullshit about the ban on some political parties in Ukraine.

SR explains how these parties are not meaningfully left, but conservative apologists for imperialism. Nevertheless, SR opposes blanket bans as an attack on civil liberties. pic.twitter.com/SCdK5vtv7f

— Ben T (@IrateBen) March 20, 2022

And here is a machine translation of a message that was circulating through Ukrainian left channels today. pic.twitter.com/cUuStjmMlI

— nikita (@pidranok) March 21, 2022

takes from actual ukrainian leftists (ones who aren't conservative pro-russian soviet nostalgists) fwiw

Thanks for the links, ufo, this is really good to hear.

Most of it is covered in this thread. If some of the parties are small and "it's not clear why they were banned" then I wouldn't say that's so good to hear.

For international comrades on the banning of parties in Ukraine.
Thread

— Taras Bilous (@ahatanhel) March 20, 2022

takes from actual ukrainian leftists (ones who aren't conservative pro-russian soviet nostalgists) fwiw

Thanks for the links, ufo, this is really good to hear. To hear from, you know, from actual Ukrainian leftists, like ufo said.

I'd take a rest rather than post.

Take your own advice. Thanks for the Taras Bilous link, though - it's good to hear from another actual Ukrainian leftist.

And leave you to cheer on nationalism? No chance.

If you don't understand why I'm happier to hear from real socialists instead of pro-Russian shill parties, perhaps I can let the poet Mayakovsky explain:

https://i.imgur.com/UvJlYnf.jpg

"Don't waste words on 'Slavic brotherhood -
The brotherhood of the workers, or nothing!"

But you can willfully misread him too, if you want. It's not like he's going to kill himself over a communist for a second time.

"If you don't understand why I'm happier to hear from real socialists instead of pro-Russian shill parties"

You are not fooling anyone about what you are most happy about.

You are not fooling anyone about what you are most happy about.

You're really confused as to why a Russian raised in the Soviet Union would support Ukraine in this conflict, aren't you?

Probably because he's secretly a Ukrainian right wing nationalist, and not because he's tired of watching his country circling the drain while imposing itself violently on neighboring countries? Probably because he's a Nazi fanboy who you're vigilantly guarding this thread against, and not because this war is the biggest disaster for Russia in the last thirty years? Probably because he smiles at the thought of banning political parties, and not because his own homeland has thoroughly extinguished any real political opposition and is currently in a cultural suicide spiral while sending 20 year olds who've never seen the USSR to die in a foreign country for the imperial fantasies of a diseased old man?

I'd love to continue this conversation but there's not enough room up your ass for the both of us.

Don't talk about me being confused and then fantasize about things no one has said on this thread. Like I said, take a break.

And leave you to fantasize about what I think regarding a conflict between countries where I lived - countries you're too ignorant to know anything about - while telling me that I'm the one who's not "fooling anyone?" No chance.

Looks like it's roomier in here than I thought.

Thread and separate one-off comment by an analyst/researcher who’s been one of my go-tos.

What happens around Mariupol in the next few days should reveal alot about the state of the Russian Army--in a ghastly way. The 'demand' that the city be surrendered was really a plea. Saying to the Ukrainians, 'we really dont want to send our army into the town.' pic.twitter.com/hzoQyF7wzv

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 21, 2022

This repositioning by Russia makes sense. Failure of first strategy, dial down to seize parts of east and south Ukraine and demand Ukraine neutralization. The problem is that Ukraine can say no, and Russia is stuck in a long war with its economy in tatters. https://t.co/HfNT1GGSCw

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 21, 2022

No party with the word Socialist in its name could be that bad right

Ukraine can say no, and Russia is stuck in a long war with its economy in tatters.

The leverage Russia has in this 'long war' scenario is simple. The long war would be happening in Ukraine, not in Russia, so Ukraine would suffer profoundly and both its economy and its infrastructure would be in tatters. There is no scenario where Ukraine will invade or conquer Russia. Putin bet the farm. Now Russia and Ukraine are in a serious no-win situation, because, politically, Putin cannot choose to simply disengage and pull out without serious concessions which, politically, Ukraine cannot give him until both nations have been put through the meat grinder.

wut pic.twitter.com/zcREqwCJLA

— Olivier Knox (@OKnox) March 21, 2022

Putin, Putin, Putin, Putin
I'm beggin' of you please don't take my land

Get all the hot topics in one tweet for maximum shares

we can all agree that Dolly Parton and Vladimir Putin have so much to learn from each other

they're like Islands in a Warm Water Port zone

Workin' nine to five what a way to make a livin'
Barely gettin' by it's all takin' and no givin'
They just use your flag and you never get the credit
It's enough to drive you crazy if you let it
Nine to five, yeah, they got you where they want you

There's a better life and you think about it, don't you
It's a rich man's war no matter what they call it
And you spend your life Putin money in his wallet.
https://i.imgur.com/iNza981.png

what's up with the soviet flag?

Random Russian vehicles were spotted with them over the course of the invasion. It looks like it is just something certain soldiers are doing?

This is down in the middle of a CNN round-up, doesn't have a link of its own, so I'll put most of it here:
From Katie Bo Lillis and Zachary Cohen

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country's war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent clumsiness and disorganization of the Russian assault.

Without a top, theater-wide commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two US defense officials.

Units participating in different Russian offensives across Ukraine have failed to connect, these sources say, and in fact, appear to be acting independently with no overarching operational design.

Russian forces also appear to be having significant communication issues. Soldiers and commanders have at times used commercial cell phones and other unsecure channels to talk to each other, making their communications easier to intercept and helping Ukraine develop targets for their own counterstrikes.

It's all led to what these sources say has been a disjointed — and at times chaotic — operation that has surprised US and western officials.

"One of the principles of war is 'unity of command,' said CNN military analyst retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a former commander of the US Army in Europe. "That means someone has to be in overall charge— to coordinate fires, direct logistics, commit reserve forces, measure the success (and failure) of different 'wings' of the operation and adjust actions based on that."
Historically, there have been instances in which Russia has publicized this kind of information, but the Ministry of Defense has not made any reference to a top commander for operations in Ukraine and did not respond to CNN's request for comment on the topic.

And while it is possible that Russia has quietly designated a top commander to oversee the invasion — even if the US has been unable to identify that individual — the state of combat operations would suggest "he's inept," according to Hertling.

The Russian invasion has also been marked by an inordinate number of casualties among high-ranking Russian officers.

The Ukrainians say they have killed five Russian generals during the first three weeks of the war, a claim CNN has not independently confirmed. Still, any military general being killed in combat is a rare event, Retired US Army Gen. David Petraeus told CNN's Jake Tapper during Sunday's State of the Union.

Col. Sergei Sukharev, the commander of an elite Russian airborne unit, was also killed in battle in Ukraine, Russian regional state TV network GTRK Kostroma reported Thursday.

"The bottom line is that their command and control has broken down," said Petraeus.

The sheer size of the invasion has only made things worse. Coordinating operations along a front that measures over 1,000 miles requires "extensive communication capability and command, control and intelligence resources that the Russians just don't have," Hertling added.

"I can't see that anything the navy is doing is coordinated with the anything the air force is doing or anything the land force is doing," said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, another former commander of the US Army in Europe, who cautioned that he had no inside knowledge of the US understanding of Russia's command structure.

"The Russians have had tremendous difficulties with command and control during this operation at all echelons," echoed a US source familiar with the situation on the ground. "Some of this may be due to actions by the Ukrainians themselves."

On the ground, Russian troops in the field have often been cut off from their senior commanders, sources said.

"The guys in the field go out and they have their objective, but they have no way to radio back [if something goes wrong]," said another source familiar with the intelligence, who added that western officials believe this is part of the reason that some Russian troops have been observed abandoning their own tanks and armored personnel carriers in the field and simply walking away.
from https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-21-22/h_5e530ceb435619a4e65b65662de96271

And while it is possible that Russia has quietly designated a top commander to oversee the invasion — even if the US has been unable to identify that individual — the state of combat operations would suggest "he's inupt, according to Hertling.

It's starting to be increasingly clear just how much of a horrible disaster Russia's army is in. Consider this from a Ukraine source, and you might think this is prone to exaggeration:

A former internal affairs minister of #Ukraine @AvakovArsen shared the intercepted Russian military summary for March 18: Rus. Army troops killed 12,814. Private company Liga (former Vagner) troops killed 4,451. Total number ofservicemembers killed at war in Ukraine: 17,265. pic.twitter.com/TuSTIyHW5n

— Victor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) March 21, 2022

But note this from a Russian source...which is not far off:

Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers, 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured. The last official Russian KIA figure, on March 2, was 498. Fascinating that someone posted the leaked number. pic.twitter.com/LHrBWIQ49z

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 21, 2022

Separately, over on Mars

Michael Flynn shared Telegram post: “Putin already won.” pic.twitter.com/meZmokK8Um

— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes) March 21, 2022

And if you'd like a comparison as to what the numbers mean

If these numbers are accurate (and I believe they are low balling their casualties & not including deserters), the Russian military has lost the equivalent of 1 1/2 US Army Divisions. We have ten total. https://t.co/g6qVL5M18G

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 21, 2022

An interesting article on The Atlantic (I know, right?): Why Can't The West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance. Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.

Add to this the repeated tactical blundering visible on videos even to amateurs: vehicles bunched up on roads, no infantry covering the flanks, no closely coordinated artillery fire, no overhead support from helicopters, and panicky reactions to ambushes. The 1-to-1 ratio of vehicles destroyed to those captured or abandoned bespeaks an army that is unwilling to fight. Russia’s inability to concentrate its forces on one or two axes of attack, or to take a major city, is striking. So, too, are its massive problems in logistics and maintenance, carefully analyzed by technically qualified observers.

The Russian army has committed well more than half its combat forces to the fight. Behind those forces stands very little. Russian reserves have no training to speak of (unlike the U.S. National Guard or Israeli or Finnish reservists), and Putin has vowed that the next wave of conscripts will not be sent over, although he is unlikely to abide by that promise. The swaggering Chechen auxiliaries have been hit badly, and in any case are not used to, or available for, combined-arms operations. Domestic discontent has been suppressed, but bubbles up as brave individuals protest and hundreds of thousands of tech-savvy young people flee.

If Russia is engaging in cyberwar, that is not particularly evident. Russia’s electronic-warfare units have not shut down Ukrainian communications. Half a dozen generals have gotten themselves killed either by poor signal security or trying desperately to unstick things on the front lines. And then there are the negative indicators on the other side—no Ukrainian capitulations, no notable panics or unit collapses, and precious few local quislings, while the bigger Russophilic fish, such as the politician Viktor Medvedchuk, are wisely staying quiet or out of the country. And reports have emerged of local Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian withdrawals.

Yeah, read that earlier. I'm hesitant just because it's good to be hesitant but Cohen's a widely read veteran wonk in foreign policy and at the least this article is causing a pretty big stir today in those circles from what I can tell.

I mean, the thing is, there's an entire massive industry devoted to the idea that Russia is Our Greatest Existential Threat and if they turn out to be a bankrupt empire on the brink of collapse, then there's a lot of shit the US is spending money on that it really doesn't need to be. And that's where the "convincing a man of things when his salary depends on not believing them" problem comes into play.

maybe Russia really did need a protective buffer

Second verse same as the first
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_gap#Discrepancy_between_intelligence_and_information_made_public

Delayed action response but thanks for the answers to my Zelenskyy question.

What if we all tried a little harder to treat each other like human beings here? The rest of the world might be an interpersonal shitshow but this message board doesn’t have to be

― Legalize Suburban Benches (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, March 20, 2022

Just wanted to say thank you for this.

A little bit more background about Soviet education re: the Holocaust.

I listened to @ZelenskyyUa's interview with @FareedZakaria on CNN. Fareed asked Zelensky about his family's history during the Holocaust, and it's so very clear to me that he has a Soviet understanding of that period. Which is to say, incomplete.

— Alex (@JewishWonk) March 21, 2022

The fate of the Jewish Anti-Fascist Committee. Something very familiar about that last sentence:

"Within a year, 15 of those under arrest who were connected to the JAC were targeted for a show trial...The defendants were subjected to various forms of torture, and except for Boris Shimeliovich, they all “confessed” to espionage, treason, and “bourgeois nationalism.” They even admitted to working with the Americans and the Zionists to detach Crimea from Soviet territory and turn it into a beachhead for Zionists and American imperialists."

https://yivoencyclopedia.org/article.aspx/jewish_anti-fascist_committee

xpost re ineptitude in the field:
I wonder, though, if the prospect of an endlessly expensive "conventional" campaign makes it more likely that Putin will resort to chemical and biological warfare (with use of the latter as false flag, already predicted, especially since Ukraine "biowarfare labs" have become the played-up justification), and even tactical nukes in the most recalcitrant and valuable cities, as Elvis T. contemplates re xp Kyiv---?

In that first tweet I posted from a Ukraine source:

Private company Liga (former Vagner) troops killed 4,451

Aka the Wagner group, a particular nasty bunch of mercenaries who are kinda like their version of Blackwater, seemingly much worse. Lots of heated claims about them trying to kill Zelensky over the past few weeks from Ukraine, which, doubtless, but by all accounts they've shit the bed; I gather there's a difference between a smaller core group in the hundreds and those they've added on more recently, which may explain it.

this is also the official line of the Turkish government https://t.co/fr4mUdxQcR

— Rev. Poppy Haze (ITAR Compliant) (@poppy_haze) March 21, 2022

xxxpost, re Putin ineptitude->desperation: So, if it does come to seem that he's likely to "escalate" that way/anyway, without US coming in face-to-face---then what should US/NATO do or not do? Short of negotiated settlement, which would be hard enough to digest, if even possible to achieve---keeping in mind, though that there are occasional passing mentions in the press that experts (which ones? Pentagon, apparently) think he won't really go nuke, will back down.

Zelensky clearly isn't in a rush, which is itself a sign

⚡️ Zelensky says that any consequential agreement with Russia would be put to a referendum.

I think that signals that there’s no agreement in sight.

— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) March 21, 2022

Meantime this has been said:

NEW: Russia has launched more than 300 sorties into Ukraine the last 24 hours: senior U.S. defense official.

🇷🇺 sorties are not "venturing very far and very long" into 🇺🇦 airspace, the official said. Russia still has more than 60 percent of fixed wing and rotary wing capability.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 21, 2022

Which as a lot of people have noted seems to imply they've either lost or for the moment can't operate 40% of said overall capacity, though clarification may not be forthcoming.

BTW, looks like Arnold's video message the other day hit a nerve

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-just-declared-war-on-arnold-schwarzenegger

You’re welcome, WmC.