ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

xpost Work access. Being employed by a library is useful.

that WSJ article here:

https://archive.ph/doZW1

Hahah WHOOPS if you're Putin

There couldn’t be a more powerful sign of which way the wind is blowing in Ukraine. China meeting with Ukraine officials in Lviv. “We have seen how great the unity of the Ukrainian people is” the Chinese ambassador is quoted as saying https://t.co/buwanatiLx

— Liz Sly (@LizSly) March 16, 2022

Which way the wind, indeed.
XP they're still going after those nuclear plants, reminding me that last word I saw from Chernobyl was of being forced to work round-the-clock.
I see print ed. of WSJ during library visits, and earlier this week a military scholar commented that, although Vlad may have indeed been alarmed by all those countries joining NATO, there was a concurrent fall in actual troops on NATO-related location (reaching a low point in 2014, when Ukraine began receiving a lot of military instruction and other assistence from member countries).
So now I wonder, if Vlad does xpost cross a red line into Poland etc, rapid response would have to be via missiles and drones etc., I take it, since "actual troops" seemed to incl. air force, for the most part (although Poland itself has the MiGs, apparently). Seems like why troop levels would have been lowered, after all the George W Boots On The Ground shit, though may yet come to that, as Peacekeepers and Advisors at least.

Drones can be tricky, of course, re hitting the wrong people, places and things. Sorry to get so speculative, but seems like Putin may get impatient enough to escalate at any point, whatever explanation he may give later.

the putin’s speech is like the tl;dr of all the latest propaganda BS that is being pushed in russia. the fact that it’s being pushed much more aggressively now combined with just as aggressive silencing of anything that disagrees with the official line is telling me they are realizing things aren’t going exactly well. my hope is that this aggressiveness will have the exact opposite effect.

Which way the wind, indeed.

Yeah, that's why they're all wearing masks.

NEW: Details on the possible Russia-Ukraine deal

– Russia ceases fire and withdraws
– Ukrainian "neutrality" without Nato
– Kyiv keeps its army but can't host foreign bases
– Russian gets legal status in Ukraine

with @ArashMassoudi and Roman Olearchykhttps://t.co/vPMUR0dekS

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 16, 2022

'Russian gets legal status in Ukraine'

What does this mean? the language?

There was a followup from a Ukraine negotiator saying that was more the Russian side of things, so I’d maintain skepticism.

What does this mean? the language?

Yes, language laws that force teaching, publishing, retail, government business, etc to use Ukrainian have been a point of contention for a while.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210401-new-law-stokes-ukraine-language-tensions

This is probably what Putin is aiming for on the language question: https://iwpr.net/global-voices/belaruss-fading-mother-tongue

This is an interesting read.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin?utm_source=pocket-newtab

The fuck. (Look this guy up if you haven't heard about him, 'piece of work' is an understatement.)

Former state Rep. Matt Shea, who left the Legislature after being accused of domestic terrorism, is in Poland with a group of 62 Ukrainian children.
Locals and international agencies are concerned about his intentions.https://t.co/TSK8JgjkBa

— David Gutman (@davidlgutman) March 16, 2022

Grain of salt, but

Holy crap. https://t.co/83uA0im6l0 pic.twitter.com/I4Wb76OvBP

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) March 17, 2022

xpost Doesn't necessarily belong on this thread, but holy crap.

numbers around how many Russian soldiers have been killed appear to be between 400 and 11,000 depending on the sources.

My guess is 7,000 is close to the truth, around 2,500 combat deaths and the rest from normal RU army hazing

Russian militaries have a pretty high tolerance for deaths (source: history from the last several centuries)

Plane trackers going crazy this morning

Exodus of Russian Special Flight Squadron planes from #Moscow, all flying towards east #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/pQgSMCpJGG

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 17, 2022

A large exodus of private jets out of Moscow towards Dubai this morning too. pic.twitter.com/pJzXPtyQOu

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) March 17, 2022

Lavrov was halfway to Beijing last night when his plane turned around abruptly and returned to Moscow ⁦@BILD⁩ reports. Unclear if Putin called him back or Chinese side got cold feet https://t.co/f9cCJBVSfY

— Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) March 17, 2022

What does any of that imply?

Who knows? But sure seems like a lot of people with means are leaving in a hurry.

Schwarzenegger is a uniquely talented communicator. pic.twitter.com/TPTUPaa2Xb

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) March 17, 2022

Meantime (the thread notes some confusing back and forth but currently concludes as showing he's been at least fired).

Three independent sources report that the deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia (a unit of RU's interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin's security service.

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 17, 2022

"Been at least fired" is an extra dreadful phrase to hear in the context of Russia.

The Ukrainian military have released some pictures of the Ukrainian Army commander in chief visiting the forces outside of Kyiv. They supply a location tag at the end. If right; the Russian Army has been pushed back in the last few days and Kyiv is a long way from surrounded https://t.co/MAAvuaKSrb

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 17, 2022

That Arnold S video is a great example of using your power/influence in a positive way.

"Been at least fired" is an extra dreadful phrase to hear in the context of Russia.

"been at least fired upon" but the last word is silent.

xpost Probably the most positive use there could be of "my dad fought for the Nazis"

Stop the war

PELOSI says she will read a poem by Bono about Ukraine at the lunch today.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) March 17, 2022

this reading will go forward unless the two sides can find common ground in the next hour
countdown begins

american posts vs irish poems

That Arnold S video is a great example of using your power/influence in a positive way.

He did something similar for Trump didn't he.

The one I remember was about vaccines and it was fantastic

https://www.washingtonpost.com/arts-entertainment/2019/02/28/nancy-pelosi-u-love-story/

Sounds like the death rattle (& hum) of a generation of center-liberals.

Lol

Watching CNN is just wild, they keep demanding interviewees to explain why the US isn’t instituting a no-fly zone. Over and over.

Yeah, I was not really concerned that the US was going to get militarily involved in this until I turned on cable news.

"But can't we just put up some really tall signs that say 'NO FLYING ALLOWED'"?

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BYzE1MjYzM2EtMDg1ZC00MjgyLTk0ODctNDg5MThmYzI5NDdhXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNjUxMjc1OTM@._V1_.jpg

Would be nice if they’d change it up a little and ask about the possibility of a no flex zone.

someone should probably point out to the cable news nitwits that our number of Ws over the last 75 years is hovering at zero and getting involved would more likely than not be to Ukraine’s detriment

On the other hand maybe we’re due.

of course the DO SOMETHING chorus will be the first ones to bash Biden if he listens to them

lmao Sam

can't lose forever

our number of Ws over the last 75 years is hovering at zero

Remember Grenada! We took out that undefended civilian airport and handed out medals like they were candy from a piñata.

We've actually had a lot of Ws if you count the first few weeks of each war

So the xp Switchblade drones are indeed scheduled for delivery to Ukraine, supposedly good anti-artillery and armor, also now reported that the human guide can cancel the hit within seconds of reaching target, if trajectory is off. so 0 collateral damage (does it self-destruct? Less danger from resulting shrapnel than whole projectile, is the idea?)
Patriot missile defense system being set up in Poland, not Ukraine, but Slovakia says will send S-300, some of which Ukraine already has, and Any country providing S-300s is likely to receive the US-made Patriot air defense missile system to backfill the capability it would be giving up, according to two other sources familiar with the negotiations. Germany and the Netherlands have already publicly announced that they are sending Patriots to Slovakia. But integrating a new, complex air defense system into a country's existing military architecture, as well as training its forces to use it, can take time, one source familiar with the matter cautioned.https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/europe/slovakia-s-300s-ukraine/index.html
That piece linked upthread by earlnash seems good, will have to read some more.