ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Anyway, about those negotiations -- notable point here

Ukraine’s lead negotiator says Russia is “looking far more properly” at the situation and thinks they may reach “concrete results” in the next few days.
He says Russia has stopped making “ultimatums”. https://t.co/f2KCcYTloe

— Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) March 13, 2022

Related to xxxxpost kidnapping and replacement of mayor:
The occupiers on the territory of the Kherson region are trying to repeat the sad experience of the formation of pseudo-republics,” Zelenskyy said. “They are blackmailing local leaders, putting pressure on deputies, looking for someone to bribe.”
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-mevlut-cavusoglu-europe-nato-b33709c6f51d1b580f2c6874066eb819

That Bermuda factoid is something else.

it's basically academic tho, isn't it? Bermuda isn't getting those jets back any time soon, Russia is going to keep using them probably even after this is over and settled.

also agree with orbit. i come here for updates as much as any other one source and usually enjoy people's thoughts etc. outside of calling out name-calling and unnecessarily argumentative chirping, i don't see a need for anyone to police the thread. i just wish more often when we think someone is wrong, we can continue to point it out with thoughtful responses.

it's basically academic tho, isn't it? Bermuda isn't getting those jets back any time soon, Russia is going to keep using them probably even after this is over and settled.

You would think defaults and writing off entire aircraft will make leasing companies reluctant to lease planes to Russians/Russian companies for the foreseeable future. So they may be using them for a long, long time.

ha ha – true!

That Bermuda factoid is something else

Apparently Irish companies have leased over a hundred commercial airliners to Russian carriers too.

I will read this over the next day or so, looks good.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/was-it-inevitable-a-short-history-of-russias-war-on-ukraine

Good article.

Ah yes of course

Russia asks China for military assistance in its invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/NwAe7UtEIi

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) March 13, 2022

The Bermuda issue has nothing to do with leasing, it's about the ability to fly the planes they actually have. As the licence holder for the planes, Bermuda - however notionally it happens - are the ones that technically certify the airworthiness of the planes.

If they're not certified as safe, then any airport that accepts them is taking a huge risk to all the other planes on their tarmac, and all the passengers, that they as duty holders can't pass on. And further to that, I'm not even sure they can let them take off again because of various international aviation authority regulations.

So basically this cuts Russia off even to friendly countries by air, otherwise those countries could lose all their international traffic.

(Yes, Russia could change to obscure rural airports and use domestic flights to get to airports but there are enough aviation geeks tracking transponders and IFF devices in normal conditions, never mind war, that it wouldn't be very long before this gets exposed.)

WaPo paywalled report today of another mayor kidnapped.

Discussion of global food supply affected by climate disruption, incl. chronic drought, then Covid showed up, now the war, how that figures in, but also possible solution/improvementhttps://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/06/1083769798/russias-war-on-ukraine-is-dire-for-world-hunger-but-there-are-solutions

More on effects: Middle Eastern and North African countries rely heavily on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The current war could lead to a severe food crisis in a region already under pressure. https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-faces-severe-wheat-crisis-over-war-in-ukraine/a-61056418

Also, re xpost Ukraine recruiting foreign fighters:Nigeria, Senegal and Algeria have criticized Ukraine's efforts to enlist international fighters as it resists the Russian invasion. Analysts say those who have responded to the call need to reconsider.
(Which leads to: Africa's complex ties with Russia)
All in here: https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-bid-to-recruit-fighters-from-africa-sparks-uproar/a-61049323

Likewise someone noted that if China *did* get more directly involved, that would exponentially disrupt global trade/supply/etc., among other serious problems.

It's come to this

Ukraine to launch NFT to mark history of Russian invasion https://t.co/0l7N1qmgnB

— Michael Carty (@MJCarty) March 14, 2022

i must have missed that chapter in The Art of War

A general must be able to mystify his officers and men by false reports and appearances

IX.36

Meanwhile, a reminder about how terrible and fucked up it all is

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-03-14/huntington-beach-woman-kharkiv-russian-invasion

xpost@ Ukraine NFTs:

Least shocking development of this war, by far.

hello MT, we've not met, i enjoy your content, but adopting a presumably calz zing as a pass-agg display name is a mistake at the grandmaster level imo

anyway we've all seen those videos of protesters being summarily carted off by russian riot cops for even talking to the press right

Thank you imago, you're right.

In the 'good news' column, the Russian communist whose story I posted above has been and gone from the police station. His lawyer told him that the "anonymous" complaint may have simply been faked by the police. The point is to show him that he's being watched.

His injured comrade is serving out a two week sentence after which he may be charged with something else, but at least he is conscious and ok. Small victories.

Some unconfirmed stories on twitter about Russian cops being simultaneously brutal, but also strangely nervous and panicky - "they know revolution is coming." We'll see.

Likewise someone noted that if China *did* get more directly involved, that would exponentially disrupt global trade/supply/etc., among other serious problems.

― Josh in Chicago, Monday, March 14, 2022 11:20 PM (yesterday)

At least nothing else happened in China yesterday that could disrupt global supply

OK, I give up. What happened in China yesterday? I know today is Pi/pie day, so it's not that ...

Oh, wait, something about covid?

yup, Shenzen port shutdown

I know someone posted something recently, but is there a link to a good Ukraine relief organization? Would Red Cross fund be good?

Found it:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/where-to-donate-to-support-ukrainian-civilians-in-and-outside-ukraine/

From Lamothe's latest thread

Russia now has 100 percent of the forces it assembled prior to invading committed to the fight. It has under 90 percent of those forces available to them, after taking losses, senior U.S. defense official says.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 14, 2022

In other words, now is the time to invade Russia! Who's with me!?

In the 'good news' column, the Russian communist whose story I posted above has been and gone from the police station. His lawyer told him that the "anonymous" complaint may have simply been faked by the police. The point is to show him that he's being watched.

I've been meaning to ask MT, to what extent do you agree with that youtuber's views? Not that you have to agree to find his work interesting, ofc. I watched the video about the decline of the Soviet Union and found it interesting, started the one about whether the Soviet Union pressured Eastern countries into becoming communist after WWII and that one seemed quite...extreme in its views, even within a western leftist perspective, tho I certainly don't have the historical knowledge to question any of it. Just kinda wondering how far dude's defense of the Soviet Union goes, what he thinks of Stalin, the tanks rolling into Prague, etc. Not easy to get the full picture when only like 5% of his videos are subtitled.

Anyway, certainly a trip to see the youtuber style, complete with mostly inscrutable-to-me local memes, applied to this level of theory (don't think Breadtube has anything near to it). And it's certainly done a number on my recommendations algorithm. And, of course, solidarity for him fighting the good fight right now!

So, I don't agree with him on all his views, in fact he's gone in on some Russians with negative views of the USSR, for ex: he uses very dodgy statistics about Soviet population figures after the Holodomor to help 'prove' it wasn't that bad. Kind of a polar opposite of the early cold war history of Richard Pipes and Conquest (both of whom I wouldn't trust either). He also proffers what seem to be flimsy excuses about other Soviet actions that we are familiar with in the West.

On the other hand, he does a great job of criticizing the period from the early 1980s onward, including the USSR failing its people, Yeltsin's Russia failing its people, and Putin's Russia failing its people. Spot the pattern here.

I find him to be a rare example of a good-faith post-Soviet communist. He may be wrong on aspects of the past and I'm fully against rehabilitating the bad parts of USSR history, but he genuinely believes what he says. It's refreshing to see that in Russia, a country whose politics have been dominated by weird fash or fash-adjacent people like Dugin, and a popular resurgence of the dumbass "Russophile" belief that Russia has a special destiny in the world. Would a communist corrective go far against this right-wing trend? I don't know, but I like to check in on him every now and then.

His more recent work last year on "Who's really boss in the Donbas," "The Imperialism of Putin," as well as his recent video about the war, are all on much more solid ground than some of his more ardent defenses of the USSR. I've checked the auto-translate-to-English subs on some of his other videos that I've recommended to other friends, and they seem to be passable, even if there are no hard English subs.

The closest English language communist with similar or more palatable beliefs might be Hakim, an Iraqi communist youtuber currently living in the UK. His own defenses of the USSR are also more...suspect...than his critiques of modern capitalism/imperialism, but his videos are in English at least.

Saw a tweet blaming Larry Summers US economic advisor for not allowing US to help Yeltsin enough financially enough back then , which tweeter suggested led to Yeltsin’s failing and then to Putin being able to take over

Not a Summers fan but that seems a bit simplistic

Unexpected effects!

Russia's invasion of Ukraine may change the future sound of guitar music. Here's why.

Traditional guitar amps (and some distortion pedals) use vacuum tubes to increase the power of the signal passing through, and to make the tone warm and crunchy. (1/12)

— David Meyer (@superglaze) March 14, 2022

Totally hadn't thought about that. I just went to my normal source for tubes for my stereo and almost every tube is sold out, which I've never even close to seen.

Ok, KT88s seem pretty scarce everywhere.

Embracing amp simulation technology is now our moral duty. Fortunately I've got like three Para Drivers and a Blonde so I am set

Couple of folks have asked about donations and support. FWIW, I've given to:

World Central Kitchen is feeding a lot of families right now and for some places it's the only one:
https://wck.org

The 24.02 Fund for local Ukrainian journalists.
https://2402.org/en/

Organizers of the New School Laurie Anderson-Zorn-Glass etc. Ukraine benefit concert (Friday 11) turned it into a free event, refunding tickets and suggesting donations to:

Save the Childrenhttps://support.savethechildren.org/site/Donation2?df_id=5751&mfc_pref=T&5751.donation=form1

International Rescue Committee https://help.rescue.org/donate/ukraine-acq

Razomhttps://razomforukraine.org/

From USA Today round-up, quoting "a senior U.S. Defense Department source":
The attack over the weekend on the Yavoriv military training base in western Ukraine consisted of dozens of cruise missiles launched by Russian bombers inside Russian airspace, the official said. The attack from a distance, the official said, showed that a no-fly zone over Ukraine sought by the battered nation would not necessarily prevent Russia from assaulting by air.

There were no U.S. troops, contractors or citizens at the base when the missiles struck, the official said. Florida National Guard troops had trained Ukrainian forces there, but left the base before the Russian invasion. At least 35 people died in the attack.
Russia, despite its advantages in warplanes, has not dominated Ukrainian airspace, the official said. Yeah but missiles.

Ok.

Macron decided to turn up to work in a pair of jeans and a French paratroopers hoodie to be more like Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/pYivvXwOga

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) March 14, 2022

how are the french so bad at jeans

though i can just barely see the shoes i think they are exactly the shoes i was imagining

"tactical boots"

levis from the levis outlet store are pretty tone deaf and not very practical for all the scrambling and wall scaling he needs to do

there's a vibe of "my job does not add value to the world and so i will wear something absurd today in a desperate attempt to feel something" that's relatable here imo

Zelensky speaks via video to Canada, addressing Justin Trudeau as his friend, and appealing to the Ukrainian diaspora.

Czech and Polish leaders visited Zelensky today, I think (or is Kyiv not safe enough for that?).

And Slovenian PM. Apparently they went rogue, in other words not an official delegation from the EU. I'm wondering about the particulars of the discussion. It's becoming clear that on the current path Poland is set to become a staging point for a years-long insurgency (inserting US/NATO-backed Ukrainian forces) -- I can't imagine that's a very cheerful prospect for Poland, as it puts the country directly in the crosshairs of Russia.

The parallels to WWII remain uncomfortable, but for better or worse there are a lot of major things that have changed since then that could mitigate the menace.