ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I don't know why I keep opening this thread because all I'm reading is stuff I saw on the BBC or Sky a day or more ago.

I mean, I don't know what they're showing on the news in the US, but there is wall-to-wall 24/7 coverage of this over here.

sorry, i thought the washington post broke that story

This thread keeps showing/leading me to stuff I didn't know, balancing speculation.
xxxpost reference to foreign fighters on both sides leads here:
...All volunteers sign a contract with Kyiv’s pro-western government. They are then assigned to training groups where their professional experience is evaluated. Gavrylko said he was learning combat first aid. He also worked as an interpreter.
...Kovzhun pointed out that western military instructors had been training the Ukrainian army since 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea and kickstarted a war in the eastern Donbas region. They included Israelis, Britons and Georgians, he said. Nato refuses to send soldiers to Ukraine. But as Kovzhun noted, many of the volunteers have come from Nato countries to fight Russia.

According to Reuters, dozens of former soldiers from the British army’s elite Parachute Regiment have reached Ukraine. Hundreds more will soon follow, one ex-soldier predicted.
(Boris they'll face court martial if they come back.)
...Other countries have taken a more pragmatic view and have waived legal restrictions. Latvia, long an enemy of Russia, has lifted a 2014 ban on its citizens going off to fight with Kyiv. Germany and Canada have taken similar steps. While most volunteers are from North America and Europe, a few have come from countries such as Colombia, Japan and even Jamaica.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-russia-war-foreign-fighters-volunteers

Previous Guardian excerpt was posted by them today btw, trying to focus on latest reports now, but all from me for a while.

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I’m not enjoying the long information dumps. More selectivity of what to post may be in order.

sorry, i thought the washington post broke that story

Not that one! I hadn't actually seen that before!

People from around the world are bypassing Putin’s censorship to send millions of text messages/emails about the invasion of Ukraine to ordinary Russians by using a new tool developed by Poland-based @squad3o3 & disseminated by @YourAnonNews https://t.co/FquNFnZlsj via @WSJ

— Bojan Pancevski (@bopanc) March 12, 2022

this sounds kind of like when the Guardian got UK liberals to write to random residents of a town in Ohio telling them to vote against Bush in the 2004 presidential election and it supposedly increased Bush's share of the vote relative to the rest of the state.

Should be OK as long as UK liberals aren't doing the texting though.

xxxxpost@boring_maryland

Sorry! Here's a short information dump:

https://i.imgur.com/QJElTSt.jpg

lol at expecting some cutting edge news aggregate out of an ilx thread

I’m not expecting anything I was trying to politely say “post less”.

^^^^

A new mayor has been installed in the Ukrainian city of Melitopol, which is under Russian military control, after the elected mayor was kidnapped on Friday, according to the Zaporozhye regional administration...Melitopol is a city in southern Ukraine that lies between the besieged city of Mariupol and the now Russian-occupied city of Kherson.https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-12-22/index.html

I suspect some kind of endgame could be taking shape:

Russia’s finance minister revealed today that, due to sanctions, Moscow has lost access to $300 bil of Russia’s $640 bil in reserve funds. As a result, “debts in countries unfriendly to Russia we will pay in ruble equivalents.” That’s a default, folks. https://t.co/CuIXm6xRCl

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 13, 2022

MP Leonid Slutsky, one of the Russian negotiators at the talks with Ukraine, says “significant progress” has been made since the start of those talks & predicts “documents for signing” within days. We’ll see...

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) March 13, 2022

Also says “no need for illusions” about breakthrough https://t.co/j2uCCAbBZI

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) March 13, 2022

Frankly, I do not trust the Russian negotiators one bit. Not sure how an endgame squares with bombing a military target in the west and abducting mayors and installing puppets in the east. sorry don't mean to be a jerk, I just can't be as optimistic.

lol at expecting some cutting edge news aggregate out of an ilx thread

― (•̪●) (carne asada), Saturday, March 12, 2022 10:31 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Hard disagree! I get all my news from ilx, normally, and it's better and more widely sourced than anywhere else I could go, filtered through a lot of usually very smart, insightful people with variety of perspectives!

This thread has not lived up to that hopeful standard, alas.

xpost thus my conditional language, you see.

Meantime

Breaking: Russian aviation hit in a significant way again - this time, by Bermuda. Bermuda revokes the licenses of 745 Russian aircraft (that’s 50% of Russia’s airline fleet).

Note: Majority of aircraft flying for Russian airlines are registered in Bermuda for tax avoidance.

— Alex Macheras (@AlexInAir) March 13, 2022

In addition - foreign leasing companies want their jets back from Russia by 28 March.

Russian airlines “simply not answering the phone” one lessor tells me, as they prepare to ‘write off’ dozens of multi-million dollar airline jets that could be “essentially gone for good”

— Alex Macheras (@AlexInAir) March 13, 2022

Anyway, about those negotiations -- notable point here

Ukraine’s lead negotiator says Russia is “looking far more properly” at the situation and thinks they may reach “concrete results” in the next few days.
He says Russia has stopped making “ultimatums”. https://t.co/f2KCcYTloe

— Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) March 13, 2022

Related to xxxxpost kidnapping and replacement of mayor:
The occupiers on the territory of the Kherson region are trying to repeat the sad experience of the formation of pseudo-republics,” Zelenskyy said. “They are blackmailing local leaders, putting pressure on deputies, looking for someone to bribe.”
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-mevlut-cavusoglu-europe-nato-b33709c6f51d1b580f2c6874066eb819

That Bermuda factoid is something else.

it's basically academic tho, isn't it? Bermuda isn't getting those jets back any time soon, Russia is going to keep using them probably even after this is over and settled.

also agree with orbit. i come here for updates as much as any other one source and usually enjoy people's thoughts etc. outside of calling out name-calling and unnecessarily argumentative chirping, i don't see a need for anyone to police the thread. i just wish more often when we think someone is wrong, we can continue to point it out with thoughtful responses.

it's basically academic tho, isn't it? Bermuda isn't getting those jets back any time soon, Russia is going to keep using them probably even after this is over and settled.

You would think defaults and writing off entire aircraft will make leasing companies reluctant to lease planes to Russians/Russian companies for the foreseeable future. So they may be using them for a long, long time.

ha ha – true!

That Bermuda factoid is something else

Apparently Irish companies have leased over a hundred commercial airliners to Russian carriers too.

I will read this over the next day or so, looks good.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/was-it-inevitable-a-short-history-of-russias-war-on-ukraine

Good article.

Ah yes of course

Russia asks China for military assistance in its invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/NwAe7UtEIi

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) March 13, 2022

The Bermuda issue has nothing to do with leasing, it's about the ability to fly the planes they actually have. As the licence holder for the planes, Bermuda - however notionally it happens - are the ones that technically certify the airworthiness of the planes.

If they're not certified as safe, then any airport that accepts them is taking a huge risk to all the other planes on their tarmac, and all the passengers, that they as duty holders can't pass on. And further to that, I'm not even sure they can let them take off again because of various international aviation authority regulations.

So basically this cuts Russia off even to friendly countries by air, otherwise those countries could lose all their international traffic.

(Yes, Russia could change to obscure rural airports and use domestic flights to get to airports but there are enough aviation geeks tracking transponders and IFF devices in normal conditions, never mind war, that it wouldn't be very long before this gets exposed.)

WaPo paywalled report today of another mayor kidnapped.

Discussion of global food supply affected by climate disruption, incl. chronic drought, then Covid showed up, now the war, how that figures in, but also possible solution/improvementhttps://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/06/1083769798/russias-war-on-ukraine-is-dire-for-world-hunger-but-there-are-solutions

More on effects: Middle Eastern and North African countries rely heavily on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The current war could lead to a severe food crisis in a region already under pressure. https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-faces-severe-wheat-crisis-over-war-in-ukraine/a-61056418

Also, re xpost Ukraine recruiting foreign fighters:Nigeria, Senegal and Algeria have criticized Ukraine's efforts to enlist international fighters as it resists the Russian invasion. Analysts say those who have responded to the call need to reconsider.
(Which leads to: Africa's complex ties with Russia)
All in here: https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-bid-to-recruit-fighters-from-africa-sparks-uproar/a-61049323

Likewise someone noted that if China *did* get more directly involved, that would exponentially disrupt global trade/supply/etc., among other serious problems.

It's come to this

Ukraine to launch NFT to mark history of Russian invasion https://t.co/0l7N1qmgnB

— Michael Carty (@MJCarty) March 14, 2022

i must have missed that chapter in The Art of War

A general must be able to mystify his officers and men by false reports and appearances

IX.36

Meanwhile, a reminder about how terrible and fucked up it all is

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-03-14/huntington-beach-woman-kharkiv-russian-invasion

xpost@ Ukraine NFTs:

Least shocking development of this war, by far.

hello MT, we've not met, i enjoy your content, but adopting a presumably calz zing as a pass-agg display name is a mistake at the grandmaster level imo

anyway we've all seen those videos of protesters being summarily carted off by russian riot cops for even talking to the press right

Thank you imago, you're right.

In the 'good news' column, the Russian communist whose story I posted above has been and gone from the police station. His lawyer told him that the "anonymous" complaint may have simply been faked by the police. The point is to show him that he's being watched.

His injured comrade is serving out a two week sentence after which he may be charged with something else, but at least he is conscious and ok. Small victories.

Some unconfirmed stories on twitter about Russian cops being simultaneously brutal, but also strangely nervous and panicky - "they know revolution is coming." We'll see.

Likewise someone noted that if China *did* get more directly involved, that would exponentially disrupt global trade/supply/etc., among other serious problems.

― Josh in Chicago, Monday, March 14, 2022 11:20 PM (yesterday)

At least nothing else happened in China yesterday that could disrupt global supply

OK, I give up. What happened in China yesterday? I know today is Pi/pie day, so it's not that ...

Oh, wait, something about covid?

yup, Shenzen port shutdown

I know someone posted something recently, but is there a link to a good Ukraine relief organization? Would Red Cross fund be good?

Found it:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/where-to-donate-to-support-ukrainian-civilians-in-and-outside-ukraine/

From Lamothe's latest thread

Russia now has 100 percent of the forces it assembled prior to invading committed to the fight. It has under 90 percent of those forces available to them, after taking losses, senior U.S. defense official says.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 14, 2022