ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

FWIW, I think there might be a strategic benefit to having Biden himself say there's not going to be escalation while having others push for it. You don't want Putin to think it's completely out of the question if things go far enough.

"Send these MiGs...Enough talk. People are dying. Send them the plans that they need."

Sen. Romney on Putin: "It's time for him to fear what we might do."

If I was a 'rational actor' in the Kremlin, this is the kind of 'escalation' that would concern me more than a failed war on foreign territory:

⚡️#Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, during a debate in the country's parliament, called the southern part of the Kuril Islands Japanese "original territories". pic.twitter.com/N7hkqvFjSj

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 7, 2022

that's wild. I hadn't seen that

Ukrainian soldier has a message for all states that have territorial claims to the Russian Federation.

Ukraine is tying down most of the Russian Army right now and Russia showed that annexations are possible.

Moldova, Georgia, Japan and China can all take back what is theirs. pic.twitter.com/0d8QgAhYwK

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 1, 2022

Sen. Romney on Putin: "It's time for him to fear what we might do."

Japanese Prime Minister... called the southern part of the Kuril Islands Japanese "original territories".

Moldova, Georgia, Japan and China can all take back what is theirs.

Hey fellas! Looks like there's a war on! What a swell opportunity for a bit of fun. Let's enlarge the war and see what happens!

The supply of such imbecility will never fail, like a miraculous artesian spring of stupidity.

I'm not sure Japan is in any position militarily to be reclaiming ancestral islands

Meanwhile, in Belarus: a study in contrast.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/03/07/defections-and-resignations-in-belarusian-military-prevented-country-from-joining-ukraine-invasion/

https://voxeurop.eu/en/i-do-not-know-of-a-single-belarusian-who-supports-the-invasion-of-ukraine/

In #Ukraine, Belarusians have created a separate battalion named after Kastus Kalinouski to defend Kyiv. According to them, more than 200 Belarusians have joined the territorial defense of Ukraine, another 300 intend to go to Ukraine. #Belarus pic.twitter.com/9PUxvcjXd9

— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) March 9, 2022

Aimless, I think you overestimate the influence that a Ukrainian soldier shitposting has on international affairs. The more likely outcome is less of a coordinated series of land grabs, but the increasing realization in the Russian government itself that they've overcommitted themselves to a failed imperial project while being surrounded by former Soviet republics in which they themselves set up a series of 'separatist' states.

You don't get Transnistria, Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Donbas just by accident.* But you could certainly go a long way toward losing them.

Not to mention the until-recently frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbajan over Artsakh/Nagorno Karabakh, where Russia has been accused of sabotaging negotiations more than once; or the fact that the USSR and Japan never signed a peace treaty, leaving the status of the Kurile islands as de-facto, but not de-jure Russian territory.

I think you overestimate the influence that a Ukrainian soldier shitposting has on international affairs.

Nope. I was just pointing at three posts made just prior to mine which all contained stupid militaristic and jingoistic sentiments, but which no one else was calling out for their stupidity. It seemed to me worth noting that anyone even hinting at the desirability of a wider war is an idiot. One of them was a US Senator and another a Japanese Prime Minister, and only one was a shitposting Ukrainian nobody.

slightly off topic but my former employer (who are like legalzoom but not legalzoom) posted on linkedin that they were no longer doing business in russia or belarus due to the invasion, but they didn't actually do any business in either country anyway; payment processors already cut people off in those regions; mayyyybe they had some EU or US people residing in those places that used their services for legal documents in the EU and US but I would guess they had no more than maybe a dozen such people. So this risks the company....nothing, but they went out of their way to post it on linkedin anyway for accolades. Fuck, give money to a verified aid organization. Hire ukrainian refugees. Do anything but this hollow virtue signaling. I called them out for it, I'm sure I'll get a nasty note from someone.

Fuck them, if they wanted to do something impactful, stop doing business in Florida, Texas, and other places that are passing anti LGBTQ+ laws. But they won't do that because it would actually impact revenue.

xpost @Aimless

Sorry, I didn't get your meaning entirely. You're right, the two government officials don't really have an excuse to say things like that. Maybe one could make a case that Romney is playing bad cop to Biden's good cop, but it wouldn't be a very good case and anyway, Lindsey Graham is already Russia-famous for his bold opinions about regime change via bullet.

I thought this was pretty good

We should also borrow the best, most humane parts of America and Europe’s Cold War playbook. During the 20th century, the West operated—essentially—what amounted to an open border policy for dissidents fleeing the Eastern bloc. If the West is serious about undermining Putin’s Russia, it should consider dropping its visa regimes or COVID rules that do not recognize the Sputnik vaccine for international travel, and allow refugees from Russia and societies occupied or under attack by the Kremlin to claim asylum. Instead of walling off Russians behind visa and propaganda walls, the West should consider sponsoring Russian universities and media in exile to keep its free thinking alive.

Moomin, was actually wondering: how did Russians take the Lindsay Graham statement? Was it like a head smacking, what a stupid asshole kind of moment? Did it raise concerns the US might actually be considering that?

I mean IDK if you know but it seems like you have some sense of russian sentiment rn

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/

Sorry for linking to reddit -- that is a former Russian MP, supposed to have been recorded in April 2021, laying out almost exactly what we've seen happen over the last two weeks. shockingly prescient.

hi ian, and thank u

Moon may I direct you here for formality's sake, since you seem to be familiar with the board? for example, I know IRL things about most of the recent posters, but not you

Introduce Yourselves!

sorry that autocorrected from Moomin, lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/

Sorry for linking to reddit -- that is a former Russian MP, supposed to have been recorded in April 2021, laying out almost exactly what we've seen happen over the last two weeks. shockingly prescient.

― ian, Thursday, March 10, 2022 8:49 PM (thirty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

OMG this guy fucking rules

worth checking out his wikipedia page for sure.

a bunch of xposts earlier @manalive

I'll admit - being in America, I'm not *much* more in touch with Russian public opinion than anyone else doing the research or with a full Twitter stable of Russia correspondents at hand. But I'll take a look later tonight at some of the press coverage specifically in Russian language media and get back to you on that one. I can read Russian just fine but it takes slightly more effort to process and turn into something digestible in English. From what I hear so far, Lindsey Graham's words have mainly been used as an example of big bad American escalation; whether or not the Russian media/govt actually believes that is a different story.

xxpost@sleeve

I will check out the introduction thread as well, thank you. To be honest though, I don't *know* a lot of personal information about most of you, since I've mostly lurked the US Politics thread and now this one. I recognize some people better than others based on certain arguments they get into, or memorable past political statements (milo for instance, or xxyyzzz re: last year's events in Israel/Palestine, or Ned for being reliably helpful wherever he shows up). Even though I too love music, I've been a bit out of the loop on most of the topics here on ILX/ILM. I've been enjoying the new Vitalic "Dissidaence" 1/2 releases a lot lately, though.

that Lindsey Graham statement literally made me lose sleep, what a fucking moron

Many xposts, but in re the Japanese statement, it looks like it was mostly a return to longstanding and rhetoric: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/After-Ukraine-Japan-reverts-to-old-line-on-Russian-controlled-islands

Shinzo Abe had tried to tone things down and make a deal with Putin, but now that kind of seems off the table, so Japan's back to asserting its longtime claims.

A discussion of red lines on today's WSJ front page---with Murdochian editorial and op-ed pages still on other side of fire wall---but the whole thing behind paywall, so I'll just repeat some of the gist as I remember if from print edition at library:
There's been a lot of emphasis on not crossing Putin's red line, but red lines can get blurred, and otherwise changed, and US has already sent far more aid (says author of article) to Ukraine than it ever did to Soviet-occupied Afghanistan. Why hasn't he retaliated? Can't reach supply lines now, but when he gets further west, will be more feasible to cut them off, and then, no more Mr. Nice Guy.
But I wonder of some of the current doubling down doesn't count as retaliation, although his mouthpieces are talking about false flags and military in the maternity/children's hospital and so on---he's not in a position to flaunt it, maybe, although he never did more than smirk about use of poison etc. Even the use of false flags of his own, possibly to justify use of chemical and biological warfare, as predicted, and the claims of Western false flags already, and that long-ass essay-lecture-sermon before the invasion, indicate that he feels the need for justification, which he never used to, right? Or was I just not paying close enough attention (at least as likely).
Still amazed by that xpost Kremlin TV panel---all the things he can do to them, and they're saying it anyway. Including the warning that, no matter which side you're own, fellow Russians, this is going to be so hard at home, harder than we can know now, any of us...

but when he gets further west

Evidence may yet show otherwise but I'm starting to seriously doubt this.

Just now saw this:
Russia hastily called a Friday morning U.N. Security Council meeting late on Thursday evening to discuss in open debate what it called "the military biological activities of the US on the territory of Ukraine" — leading the Biden administration to immediately denounce it as a "false flag effort."
...The Friday meeting was announced by Russia's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyansky in a tweet linking to the Russian Ministry of Defense, claiming analysis of documents about U.S. "military biological activities" in Ukraine, with a half-dozen documents attached with graphs and charts.
from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-un-meeting-alleging-us-military-biological-activities-in-ukraine-false-flag/

Interesting interview with Ukrainian anthropologist and socialist Volodymyr Artiukh:

https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/ukraine-socialist-interview-russian-invasion-war-putin-nato-imperialism

Another good piece by Artiukh:

https://commons.com.ua/en/us-plaining-not-enough-on-your-and-our-mistakes/

He makes some cogent points on the limitations of US- and NATO-centric perspectives.

BBC:
Lutsk and Dnipro hit for first time - reports
There's been reports of blasts in cities on opposite sides of the country in the past half hour.

Ukrainian TV and media outlets are reporting explosions in Lutsk in the north-west, as well as in Dnipro - an inland city located on the river Dnieper and a major stronghold in central-eastern Ukraine.

Neither of these cities have seen direct shelling before.

Air raid sirens had rung out across several cities in Ukraine in the hours prior to the explosions.

We'll bring you the latest information as we find out more.
23:02
Lutsk strikes targeted airfield and jet repair factory
The strike in Lutsk targeted an airfield according to locals in the area, BBC Ukraine is reporting.

There are also reports that the Russian strike hit a factory - the only place where certain fighter jet engines can be repaired.

BBC Ukraine says the site was on a list of key strategic assets being targeted by Russia.
*******************************************************************************************

Satellite images of a Russian convoy near Kyiv appear to show forces redeploying to nearby areas, potentially signalling a renewed push towards the Ukrainian capital.

According to Maxar Technologies, elements of the convoy - which was last seen north-west of nearby Antonov Airport - have moved into positions in surrounding towns.

Maxar said that images also show other parts of the convoy to the north have positioned themselves near Lubyanka, and set up artillery positions nearby.

Earlier on Thursday, a senior US defence official said that Russian forces have moved three miles (5km) closer to Kyiv in the past 24 hours.

re xpost "Ukraine BioWarfare" also from BBC:
The World Health Organization (WHO) advised Ukraine to destroy any dangerous pathogens being kept in research laboratories to prevent "any potential spills" that could harm the public, an official told Reuters news agency on Thursday.

Like other countries, Ukraine has public health laboratories that study dangerous diseases in humans and animals, including Covid-19. Some of these labs have received support from the US, EU and WHO in the past.

The labs are now at the centre of a propaganda war between Russia and the West, with Russia accusing Ukraine of hosting US-run biological and chemical weapons facilities.

The WHO official who spoke to Reuters did not say when the advice was issued, whether it was followed or what kind of pathogens and toxins were in the Ukrainian labs.

can you please stop posting so much in this thread? people can get all those links and details elsewhere.

claiming analysis of documents about U.S. "military biological activities" in Ukraine, with a half-dozen documents attached with graphs and charts.

Gee, making 'documented' claims at the UN that there are WMDs in Ukraine? Where on earth could the Russians have got such an idea from?

@man alive regarding Lindsey Graham:

Komsomol Truth (kp.ru) leads the way with two articles of note on Lindsey:

1) "Who is Lindsey Graham?" subtitled "known as Lady Graham." Calls him out for grandstanding to attract media attention, goes over some of his previous statements about American political enemies. Then it pivots wildly to accusations that he is a "closeted homosexual" who craves especially hard, rough sex. Claims "Lady Graham" is his Senate nickname and that colleagues swear it's the same nickname given to him by many escort agencies in DC. Hints at a compromising photo of Graham that's in possession of the Kremlin.

2) headline: "Brutus, Cassius, and Milady." Graham is mentioned, but in passing (as a 'friend of free Russia' who took over for McCain after his death). Interestingly, Graham is compared to Cardinal Richelieu from the wildly popular (in Russia) Three Musketeers. The comparison is not flattering: Henry IV's assassination by a Catholic zealot is harder to trace back to the cardinal than Graham's own public call for a Brutus. The article goes on about similar outrages like a Ukrainian peace negotiator wearing a baseball cap, and Russian cats being banned from international competitions.

also, not Lindsey related, the same site has a front page story about "little Nazi" children who are "raised to hate Russians" in an extensive network of Ukrainian camps. 'This is why Ukraine needs denazification.'

A March 4 story in yamal-media.ru optimistically suggests that Americans have gone from threating sanctions to panic and hysteria, referencing Graham's statement as proof. Political scientist Alexander Asafov is interviewed, and sees Graham's words as "openly hysterical" and proof that other methods, i.e. sanctions, "fake news" media campaigns, aren't working as well or as fast to sway Russian policy or public opinion. Instead, he sees this as "spiteful cancel culture" directed at all things Russian. Americans don't yet believe it's time for diplomatic talks, so they're reacting out of confusion and hatred.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/826300 Dmitry Peskov calls Lindsey's statement a "Russophobic fit" concomitant with US-based "hysterical intensification of Russophobia" while the official note given to US ambassador John Sullivan stresses potential criminal liability for threatening the life of a head of state.

https://secretmag.ru/news/diplomaty-potrebovali-ot-ssha-osudit-vyskazyvaniya-senatora-v-adres-putina-04-03-2022.htm Ambassador Anatoly Antonov also mentions that "the degree of Russophobia and hatred in America toward Russia is rising precipitously." "It's hard to believe that a nation seeing itself as a moral lodestar for humanity can allow this kind of open call for terrorism in order to achieve Washington's goals in the international arena." Some additional 'concern' about the fate of the US at the hands of such reckless, irresponsible politicians.

1 day later the same outlet published the headline: "Russian ambassador sees a call for a nuclear war from the US" while the story labels Sen. Rick Scott's statements "a call for confrontation between the two largest nuclear powers;" Graham's earlier words are also referenced as "endangering international safety."

The alluringly named "Red spring" (rossaprimavera.ru) approvingly reprints statements from a Chinese newspaper, Global Times, who are "alarmed by an increase in Nazi-like rhetoric among the American Republican right wing." While they infer that this shows an inclination for fascism/terrorism among said right wing, they also link Graham's statements to his past 2016 run for President and imply that he is thirsty for press coverage.

I'm not going to argue for a no-fly-zone because I also appreciate living, but nevertheless it's worth considering exactly which Western actions, and in what way, are actually "escalating" anything.

Fixed it for you moomintrolly.

Are you a child?

Did you see this part right after your hilarious strikethrough, after I specifically said I'm not arguing for a no-fly-zone?

"it's worth considering exactly which Western actions, and in what way, are actually "escalating" anything. A more likely source of escalation seems to be frustration felt at missing out on a splendid little 3-day war and the 'birth of a new world' from that article about the "Ukrainian question" that was published too soon. Now that Putin has invested the Russian army and is still a ways from pulling back or conceding anything, he seems to be stuck on a one-way track of escalation or continuing the indiscriminate bombing and war crimes he's been doing already. Neither will endear him to the West or encourage retreat when it comes to sanctioning Russia and sending aid to Ukraine. There is no way back for Putin that doesn't entail humiliation, admitting you were wrong, or ceding territory to Ukraine. Hard to imagine him doing any of these things."

Please be careful in your reply, lest you anger me to the point of using nuclear weapons against you. It would be a shame if your actions contributed to the escalation of a conflict already on the precipice of a flame war. But then again, perhaps you have no shame?

I don't really see why MT should have to post on the introduce yourself thread - I was suspicious too when they came in guns blazing but they've since been a thoughtful poster and everything I've learned about posters, recent or otherwise, has been in the natural course of the flow of conversation.

sorry for board laywering on this thread tho

That's alright Daniel, lawyer away.

I think it's good to state that there is no 'but' around a no fly zone. Anything that results in playing about what could be escalation is a no go for me and any waffling around it should not interest anybody.

It's possible to separate the idea of a no fly zone from other measures, which may or may not escalate the conflict. You're playing with words here. The point isn't to sneakily say "NFZ is bad, but if you REALLY think about it, maybe good?"

It's to say, absent a no fly zone, what are the possible avenues of aid for Ukraine, what is THEIR risk toward escalating the conflict, and as I tried to point out in that post, how does all of this actually relate to the decision-making in the Kremlin? Which seems, to me, to not necessarily be tied to specific Western actions as much as it is to its own calculus.

FWIW I've gone from mild approval of sending Poland's MIGs to Ukraine to agreeing with the Pentagon assessment that it would needlessly escalate the war by providing clearly offensive capabilities rather than defensive Stingers and Javelins. There's a lot of emotions around this conflict and how publicized the results of Russian bombings are. With horrible footage and photographs front and center, I understand the popular sentiment to "close the sky," as well as how it doesn't take into account the danger of direct US confrontation with Russia.

I know that's not going to endear you to me, but in general I am glad to be theory-crafting here where there's no chance of me starting a nuclear war. Politics aside, the people in Russia/USA in charge of the nukes seem to have much cooler heads so far, and hopefully they will prevail. That was one of the unequivocally good things about USSR/American relations during the Cold War.

hi

Per the followup tweet this has been confirmed. Something like the third Russian general in a week? That’s…honestly kinda speechless here. (Again, given my dad’s military career I have a certain perspective on this and boy that really does not say much for the Russian army right now.)

Ukraine’s authorities say MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander has been killed.
This is yet to be confirmed!
Big if true — the elimination of military leaders on the ground gets really catastrophic for Russia. pic.twitter.com/z3keCC7CEP

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 11, 2022

Don't know if this has been linked but a very useful interview I was reading last night.

https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/ukraine-socialist-interview-russian-invasion-war-putin-nato-imperialism/

This interview is on the protests.

“We don’t live in Berlin, where participation in a protest gets you lots of pats on the back. You can end up with a concussion, or spend the night in jail, or have a felony case opened against you. So yeah, in my view people are coming out in force.” https://t.co/du91lBpHNa

— Ross Wolfe (@rosswolfe) March 3, 2022

Agreed that is a good interview with Volodymyr Artiukh. I also linked another essay he wrote above.

Artiukh pretty much destroys the "the West/US caused this" theory that some leftists have been pushing.

About a year ago I started following a communist Russian youtuber by the name of "Vestnik Buri," real name Andrey Rudoy. He has a couple english subbed videos, most notably "How did the collapse of the USSR happen?" Check them out! Recently he was "called in" to the 3rd department of Drerzhinsky* police because of an anonymous complaint that he was "inciting discord, conducting extremist activities, and gathering around himself radical leftist anti-social elements."

Since then, they have changed his destination to a more nearby police station, and told him to wait for a phone call specifying when to show up. He has had time to prepare and hire a lawyer.

Others are not so lucky. Rudoy wrote a couple days ago:

"My comrade Aleksey Dmitriev, a recent guest in my video about ecology and capitalism, had his apartment broken into by the police and FSB. In his words, so much as he was able to tell us, while they were carrying him out of the building and shoving him into the van, he was beaten and not given the opportunity to contact a lawyer."

Last night he added:

"Right now we have a special kind of hell going on by the Himki courthouse (suburb of Moscow). Alexei Dmitriev, detained and beaten yesterday during his arrest, was supposed to be tried today for "minor hooliganism." Because he apparently had sustained a skull/brain trauma, he lost consciousness inside the courthouse.

Comrades called the ambulances, but one of the cops spoke with the EMT and found out who the doctor in charge was...after this they dragged the still unconscious Alexei from the ambulance into the courthouse.

The time is late evening; the court continues its 'activities.' Activists are coming to by to bear witness in solidarity. Several police vans have arrived and started to detain comrades from this group with no explanation (things are moving so fast that we don't know if, or for how long, they're being held).

Alexei is still on the premises, his life can end at any moment; now we have reason to believe that certain interested authorities may actually be in favor of his death. We still don't understand the motives of the powers that be, if it's his ecological activism bothering local business plans, or it's his antiwar position, but this is brutal even by Russian standards."

**Drerzhinsky is a city/town named after the first chief of the Cheka, what would later become the NKVD. Nicholas I also had a police force known as the Third Section. Not sure if the "3rd department" is a coincidence or sarcasm on Rudoy's part.

Worth noting AFAIK neither of these people have participated in recent public protests, i.e. the police's interest in them seems to be purely on the basis of their potential to organize others rather than anything that they've already done.

No small irony that it's Russian communists being arrested and brutally beaten

This twitter thread from the prolific Kamil Galeev may explain why it's communists that are being targeted:

17. Russian parliamentarismhttps://t.co/PDdqet8grv

TL;DR Putinism = supreme leader rules + controlled parliament rubberstamps. To keep parliament under control you need a plug, a pseudo party called "United Russia". The only real parliamentary dissent comes from the Communists

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 2, 2022

The 40-mile convey is breaking up, subsets moving through forest around outskirts whenever feasible, to lessen the pounding they're getting from Ukrainian forces, which is slowing them down. Also, analyst on MSNC this morning pointed out that Kyiv is about the size of Chicago, and at the rate they're going, could take a month to complete the circle. Although I wonder if they're not tightening it as they go, to some extent, cutting through the more vulnerable outskirts. Fucking things up in passing, or establishing a toehold? Might be too much effort required for now, but
meanwhile, down south, in the second largest city, Kherson (wiki: It is the administrative center of Kherson Oblast and an economic center...an important port on the Black Sea and on the Dnieper River, and the home of a major ship-building industry), a Ukrainian source reported on either MSNBC or CNN this moring, that the Russian National Guard, created by Putin for riot control in Russia, is now going door-to-door, while checking social media to see who's been dissenting, have so far arrested 400.

Kherson area residents convey a variety of takes to a Deutsche Welle correspondent; for instance, the mayor says that the Russians stay secluded in town hall, and "there is no one to talk to" when he needs to get things done, although they've made it clear enough that the bridge blocked by 200 bodies of Ukraine military and civilians can't be cleared, even by priests and relatives.
https://www.dw.com/en/about-dw/s-30688

So they've got the south, and when they've taken xpost Dnipro (wiki: built mainly upon both banks of the Dnieper, at its confluence with the Samara River, one of the cities they started boming yesterday, that's a key location in the east--which some analysts/speculators say is what Putin mainly wanted. Given how things are going at home and abroad, will he declare glorious victory, not try to take the west of Ukraine, while still fucking with it?