ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Rats leave the ship first.

FSB people are actively selling apartments in the Crimea.

Number of new apartments for sale in the last few days. Mostly families of the FSB and the occupation administration. pic.twitter.com/eB66DbJLxC

— Liubov Tsybulska (@TsybulskaLiubov) March 10, 2022

Seen that but also some questions about sourcing.

That seems really unlikely to me - what's the rationale? They think Ukraine is going to retake Crimea? The climate there is turning more anti-Russian?

I really can't say and I'm surprised it's happening at all. To my knowledge there was no immediate threat of Ukrainian forces going to Crimea, despite the two countries being at war and all that.

A more likely explanation is that they're trying to sell their property so they can leave the country. Their FSB status makes it (possibly?) easier for them to do so, so they're getting all the money they can together and planning to decamp to Turkey, Transnistria, wherever.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/8/we-are-refugees-russians-flee-rising-authoritarianism

"Those wishing to leave from the European side of the country are crossing the land border to Finland or the Baltic states (Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania). Those who do not have European visas head to Georgia, Armenia and Turkey, where a Russian dissident community is growing."

https://www.ft.com/content/a8b53d7a-08c5-484e-9dc6-cd4b2d889e3f

"With almost all European airspace closed to Russian aircraft, flights to Tel Aviv, Istanbul, Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi have been sold out for days, while other travelers have packed on to buses to the Baltic states."

"Georgia’s economy minister said on Monday that as many as 25,000 Russians had arrived in the country in the past few days, according to local media outlet Sova. Vahe Hakobyan, chair of the Armenian parliament’s economic affairs committee, said this week that about 6,000 Russian and Ukrainian citizens were arriving in the country every day."

Anyway, avocados

Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵 pic.twitter.com/gKUZ665ePm

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 9, 2022

How does this make any sense?

Russia has hit back at western sanctions for invading Ukraine by imposing export bans on a string of products until the end of 2022.

The ban covers exports of telecoms, medical, vehicle, agricultural, and electrical equipment, as well as some forestry products such as timber.

The economy ministry said further measures could include restricting foreign ships from Russian ports.

It said: "These measures are a logical response to those imposed on Russia."

So ikea won't get birch for the nightstands? I don't get it

Last burgers in Moscow’s flagship McDonald's. Asked one man as he was leaving for his thoughts and he said "I only ever use the toilets." pic.twitter.com/Bn8XYfbaP0

— Marc Bennetts (@marcbennetts1) March 9, 2022

they had some piece this morning interviewing Russian people at McDonald and a few were saying how sad they were about no more bigmacs which made me want to puke

hey send them big macs, blue jeans and rock'n'roll and they'll all be capitalists in a year!

Have watched CNN the past few days, and boy does Jake Tapper want a no-fly zone aka shooting war involving nuclear powers.

One thing I'll say about a no-fly-zone without trying to sound like Buck Turgidson:

There's this constant worry that no matter what America/Europe does, they are "escalating" and "forcing Putin" to: carry out intimidating military maneuvers, quarter troops in another country (Belarus), invade Ukraine, bomb cities, do war crimes, etc etc.

Meanwhile the Russian army has now conducted two attacks on nuclear power plants in Ukraine with seemingly no worries of escalation. Moreover, they appear to be settling into their usual pattern of pulling up artillery and hammering cities into the ground like Grozny in the 90s and Aleppo in the 2010s. If these 'escalations' are driven by any moves on the part of the West, I'm not sure what those are. Mining civilian evacuation routes with impunity and shooting at individual cars trying to get out of cities does not seem to be a high-risk low reward tactic in their mind.

But the idea remains that whether it's sanctions, or transferring planes to Ukraine, or just sending weapons, or foreign fighters, will "inflame tensions" and "make Putin do something terrible." He's going to do something terrible no matter what, is the more likely scenario. The real questions is what that will look like and when it will come.

I'm not going to argue for a no-fly-zone because I also appreciate living, but nevertheless it's worth considering exactly which Western actions, and in what way, are actually "escalating" anything. A more likely source of escalation seems to be frustration felt at missing out on a splendid little 3-day war and the 'birth of a new world' from that article about the "Ukrainian question" that was published too soon. Now that Putin has invested the Russian army and is still a ways from pulling back or conceding anything, he seems to be stuck on a one-way track of escalation or continuing the indiscriminate bombing and war crimes he's been doing already. Neither will endear him to the West or encourage retreat when it comes to sanctioning Russia and sending aid to Ukraine. There is no way back for Putin that doesn't entail humiliation, admitting you were wrong, or ceding territory to Ukraine. Hard to imagine him doing any of these things.

The crackdown on most independent media and the ginned-up "Z" events in Russia also stink of a kind of cultural escalation of this conflict. It's telling that instead of promoting a brilliant upcoming victory, the new motto is "we won't leave ours behind."

FWIW, I think there might be a strategic benefit to having Biden himself say there's not going to be escalation while having others push for it. You don't want Putin to think it's completely out of the question if things go far enough.

"Send these MiGs...Enough talk. People are dying. Send them the plans that they need."

Sen. Romney on Putin: "It's time for him to fear what we might do."

If I was a 'rational actor' in the Kremlin, this is the kind of 'escalation' that would concern me more than a failed war on foreign territory:

⚡️#Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, during a debate in the country's parliament, called the southern part of the Kuril Islands Japanese "original territories". pic.twitter.com/N7hkqvFjSj

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 7, 2022

that's wild. I hadn't seen that

Ukrainian soldier has a message for all states that have territorial claims to the Russian Federation.

Ukraine is tying down most of the Russian Army right now and Russia showed that annexations are possible.

Moldova, Georgia, Japan and China can all take back what is theirs. pic.twitter.com/0d8QgAhYwK

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 1, 2022

Sen. Romney on Putin: "It's time for him to fear what we might do."

Japanese Prime Minister... called the southern part of the Kuril Islands Japanese "original territories".

Moldova, Georgia, Japan and China can all take back what is theirs.

Hey fellas! Looks like there's a war on! What a swell opportunity for a bit of fun. Let's enlarge the war and see what happens!

The supply of such imbecility will never fail, like a miraculous artesian spring of stupidity.

I'm not sure Japan is in any position militarily to be reclaiming ancestral islands

Meanwhile, in Belarus: a study in contrast.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/03/07/defections-and-resignations-in-belarusian-military-prevented-country-from-joining-ukraine-invasion/

https://voxeurop.eu/en/i-do-not-know-of-a-single-belarusian-who-supports-the-invasion-of-ukraine/

In #Ukraine, Belarusians have created a separate battalion named after Kastus Kalinouski to defend Kyiv. According to them, more than 200 Belarusians have joined the territorial defense of Ukraine, another 300 intend to go to Ukraine. #Belarus pic.twitter.com/9PUxvcjXd9

— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) March 9, 2022

Aimless, I think you overestimate the influence that a Ukrainian soldier shitposting has on international affairs. The more likely outcome is less of a coordinated series of land grabs, but the increasing realization in the Russian government itself that they've overcommitted themselves to a failed imperial project while being surrounded by former Soviet republics in which they themselves set up a series of 'separatist' states.

You don't get Transnistria, Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Donbas just by accident.* But you could certainly go a long way toward losing them.

Not to mention the until-recently frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbajan over Artsakh/Nagorno Karabakh, where Russia has been accused of sabotaging negotiations more than once; or the fact that the USSR and Japan never signed a peace treaty, leaving the status of the Kurile islands as de-facto, but not de-jure Russian territory.

I think you overestimate the influence that a Ukrainian soldier shitposting has on international affairs.

Nope. I was just pointing at three posts made just prior to mine which all contained stupid militaristic and jingoistic sentiments, but which no one else was calling out for their stupidity. It seemed to me worth noting that anyone even hinting at the desirability of a wider war is an idiot. One of them was a US Senator and another a Japanese Prime Minister, and only one was a shitposting Ukrainian nobody.

slightly off topic but my former employer (who are like legalzoom but not legalzoom) posted on linkedin that they were no longer doing business in russia or belarus due to the invasion, but they didn't actually do any business in either country anyway; payment processors already cut people off in those regions; mayyyybe they had some EU or US people residing in those places that used their services for legal documents in the EU and US but I would guess they had no more than maybe a dozen such people. So this risks the company....nothing, but they went out of their way to post it on linkedin anyway for accolades. Fuck, give money to a verified aid organization. Hire ukrainian refugees. Do anything but this hollow virtue signaling. I called them out for it, I'm sure I'll get a nasty note from someone.

Fuck them, if they wanted to do something impactful, stop doing business in Florida, Texas, and other places that are passing anti LGBTQ+ laws. But they won't do that because it would actually impact revenue.

xpost @Aimless

Sorry, I didn't get your meaning entirely. You're right, the two government officials don't really have an excuse to say things like that. Maybe one could make a case that Romney is playing bad cop to Biden's good cop, but it wouldn't be a very good case and anyway, Lindsey Graham is already Russia-famous for his bold opinions about regime change via bullet.

I thought this was pretty good

We should also borrow the best, most humane parts of America and Europe’s Cold War playbook. During the 20th century, the West operated—essentially—what amounted to an open border policy for dissidents fleeing the Eastern bloc. If the West is serious about undermining Putin’s Russia, it should consider dropping its visa regimes or COVID rules that do not recognize the Sputnik vaccine for international travel, and allow refugees from Russia and societies occupied or under attack by the Kremlin to claim asylum. Instead of walling off Russians behind visa and propaganda walls, the West should consider sponsoring Russian universities and media in exile to keep its free thinking alive.

Moomin, was actually wondering: how did Russians take the Lindsay Graham statement? Was it like a head smacking, what a stupid asshole kind of moment? Did it raise concerns the US might actually be considering that?

I mean IDK if you know but it seems like you have some sense of russian sentiment rn

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/

Sorry for linking to reddit -- that is a former Russian MP, supposed to have been recorded in April 2021, laying out almost exactly what we've seen happen over the last two weeks. shockingly prescient.

hi ian, and thank u

Moon may I direct you here for formality's sake, since you seem to be familiar with the board? for example, I know IRL things about most of the recent posters, but not you

Introduce Yourselves!

sorry that autocorrected from Moomin, lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/

Sorry for linking to reddit -- that is a former Russian MP, supposed to have been recorded in April 2021, laying out almost exactly what we've seen happen over the last two weeks. shockingly prescient.

― ian, Thursday, March 10, 2022 8:49 PM (thirty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

OMG this guy fucking rules

worth checking out his wikipedia page for sure.

a bunch of xposts earlier @manalive

I'll admit - being in America, I'm not *much* more in touch with Russian public opinion than anyone else doing the research or with a full Twitter stable of Russia correspondents at hand. But I'll take a look later tonight at some of the press coverage specifically in Russian language media and get back to you on that one. I can read Russian just fine but it takes slightly more effort to process and turn into something digestible in English. From what I hear so far, Lindsey Graham's words have mainly been used as an example of big bad American escalation; whether or not the Russian media/govt actually believes that is a different story.

xxpost@sleeve

I will check out the introduction thread as well, thank you. To be honest though, I don't *know* a lot of personal information about most of you, since I've mostly lurked the US Politics thread and now this one. I recognize some people better than others based on certain arguments they get into, or memorable past political statements (milo for instance, or xxyyzzz re: last year's events in Israel/Palestine, or Ned for being reliably helpful wherever he shows up). Even though I too love music, I've been a bit out of the loop on most of the topics here on ILX/ILM. I've been enjoying the new Vitalic "Dissidaence" 1/2 releases a lot lately, though.

that Lindsey Graham statement literally made me lose sleep, what a fucking moron

Many xposts, but in re the Japanese statement, it looks like it was mostly a return to longstanding and rhetoric: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/After-Ukraine-Japan-reverts-to-old-line-on-Russian-controlled-islands

Shinzo Abe had tried to tone things down and make a deal with Putin, but now that kind of seems off the table, so Japan's back to asserting its longtime claims.

A discussion of red lines on today's WSJ front page---with Murdochian editorial and op-ed pages still on other side of fire wall---but the whole thing behind paywall, so I'll just repeat some of the gist as I remember if from print edition at library:
There's been a lot of emphasis on not crossing Putin's red line, but red lines can get blurred, and otherwise changed, and US has already sent far more aid (says author of article) to Ukraine than it ever did to Soviet-occupied Afghanistan. Why hasn't he retaliated? Can't reach supply lines now, but when he gets further west, will be more feasible to cut them off, and then, no more Mr. Nice Guy.
But I wonder of some of the current doubling down doesn't count as retaliation, although his mouthpieces are talking about false flags and military in the maternity/children's hospital and so on---he's not in a position to flaunt it, maybe, although he never did more than smirk about use of poison etc. Even the use of false flags of his own, possibly to justify use of chemical and biological warfare, as predicted, and the claims of Western false flags already, and that long-ass essay-lecture-sermon before the invasion, indicate that he feels the need for justification, which he never used to, right? Or was I just not paying close enough attention (at least as likely).
Still amazed by that xpost Kremlin TV panel---all the things he can do to them, and they're saying it anyway. Including the warning that, no matter which side you're own, fellow Russians, this is going to be so hard at home, harder than we can know now, any of us...

but when he gets further west

Evidence may yet show otherwise but I'm starting to seriously doubt this.

Just now saw this:
Russia hastily called a Friday morning U.N. Security Council meeting late on Thursday evening to discuss in open debate what it called "the military biological activities of the US on the territory of Ukraine" — leading the Biden administration to immediately denounce it as a "false flag effort."
...The Friday meeting was announced by Russia's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyansky in a tweet linking to the Russian Ministry of Defense, claiming analysis of documents about U.S. "military biological activities" in Ukraine, with a half-dozen documents attached with graphs and charts.
from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-un-meeting-alleging-us-military-biological-activities-in-ukraine-false-flag/

Interesting interview with Ukrainian anthropologist and socialist Volodymyr Artiukh:

https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/ukraine-socialist-interview-russian-invasion-war-putin-nato-imperialism

Another good piece by Artiukh:

https://commons.com.ua/en/us-plaining-not-enough-on-your-and-our-mistakes/

He makes some cogent points on the limitations of US- and NATO-centric perspectives.

BBC:
Lutsk and Dnipro hit for first time - reports
There's been reports of blasts in cities on opposite sides of the country in the past half hour.

Ukrainian TV and media outlets are reporting explosions in Lutsk in the north-west, as well as in Dnipro - an inland city located on the river Dnieper and a major stronghold in central-eastern Ukraine.

Neither of these cities have seen direct shelling before.

Air raid sirens had rung out across several cities in Ukraine in the hours prior to the explosions.

We'll bring you the latest information as we find out more.
23:02
Lutsk strikes targeted airfield and jet repair factory
The strike in Lutsk targeted an airfield according to locals in the area, BBC Ukraine is reporting.

There are also reports that the Russian strike hit a factory - the only place where certain fighter jet engines can be repaired.

BBC Ukraine says the site was on a list of key strategic assets being targeted by Russia.
*******************************************************************************************

Satellite images of a Russian convoy near Kyiv appear to show forces redeploying to nearby areas, potentially signalling a renewed push towards the Ukrainian capital.

According to Maxar Technologies, elements of the convoy - which was last seen north-west of nearby Antonov Airport - have moved into positions in surrounding towns.

Maxar said that images also show other parts of the convoy to the north have positioned themselves near Lubyanka, and set up artillery positions nearby.

Earlier on Thursday, a senior US defence official said that Russian forces have moved three miles (5km) closer to Kyiv in the past 24 hours.

re xpost "Ukraine BioWarfare" also from BBC:
The World Health Organization (WHO) advised Ukraine to destroy any dangerous pathogens being kept in research laboratories to prevent "any potential spills" that could harm the public, an official told Reuters news agency on Thursday.

Like other countries, Ukraine has public health laboratories that study dangerous diseases in humans and animals, including Covid-19. Some of these labs have received support from the US, EU and WHO in the past.

The labs are now at the centre of a propaganda war between Russia and the West, with Russia accusing Ukraine of hosting US-run biological and chemical weapons facilities.

The WHO official who spoke to Reuters did not say when the advice was issued, whether it was followed or what kind of pathogens and toxins were in the Ukrainian labs.

can you please stop posting so much in this thread? people can get all those links and details elsewhere.

claiming analysis of documents about U.S. "military biological activities" in Ukraine, with a half-dozen documents attached with graphs and charts.

Gee, making 'documented' claims at the UN that there are WMDs in Ukraine? Where on earth could the Russians have got such an idea from?

@man alive regarding Lindsey Graham:

Komsomol Truth (kp.ru) leads the way with two articles of note on Lindsey:

1) "Who is Lindsey Graham?" subtitled "known as Lady Graham." Calls him out for grandstanding to attract media attention, goes over some of his previous statements about American political enemies. Then it pivots wildly to accusations that he is a "closeted homosexual" who craves especially hard, rough sex. Claims "Lady Graham" is his Senate nickname and that colleagues swear it's the same nickname given to him by many escort agencies in DC. Hints at a compromising photo of Graham that's in possession of the Kremlin.

2) headline: "Brutus, Cassius, and Milady." Graham is mentioned, but in passing (as a 'friend of free Russia' who took over for McCain after his death). Interestingly, Graham is compared to Cardinal Richelieu from the wildly popular (in Russia) Three Musketeers. The comparison is not flattering: Henry IV's assassination by a Catholic zealot is harder to trace back to the cardinal than Graham's own public call for a Brutus. The article goes on about similar outrages like a Ukrainian peace negotiator wearing a baseball cap, and Russian cats being banned from international competitions.

also, not Lindsey related, the same site has a front page story about "little Nazi" children who are "raised to hate Russians" in an extensive network of Ukrainian camps. 'This is why Ukraine needs denazification.'

A March 4 story in yamal-media.ru optimistically suggests that Americans have gone from threating sanctions to panic and hysteria, referencing Graham's statement as proof. Political scientist Alexander Asafov is interviewed, and sees Graham's words as "openly hysterical" and proof that other methods, i.e. sanctions, "fake news" media campaigns, aren't working as well or as fast to sway Russian policy or public opinion. Instead, he sees this as "spiteful cancel culture" directed at all things Russian. Americans don't yet believe it's time for diplomatic talks, so they're reacting out of confusion and hatred.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/826300 Dmitry Peskov calls Lindsey's statement a "Russophobic fit" concomitant with US-based "hysterical intensification of Russophobia" while the official note given to US ambassador John Sullivan stresses potential criminal liability for threatening the life of a head of state.

https://secretmag.ru/news/diplomaty-potrebovali-ot-ssha-osudit-vyskazyvaniya-senatora-v-adres-putina-04-03-2022.htm Ambassador Anatoly Antonov also mentions that "the degree of Russophobia and hatred in America toward Russia is rising precipitously." "It's hard to believe that a nation seeing itself as a moral lodestar for humanity can allow this kind of open call for terrorism in order to achieve Washington's goals in the international arena." Some additional 'concern' about the fate of the US at the hands of such reckless, irresponsible politicians.

1 day later the same outlet published the headline: "Russian ambassador sees a call for a nuclear war from the US" while the story labels Sen. Rick Scott's statements "a call for confrontation between the two largest nuclear powers;" Graham's earlier words are also referenced as "endangering international safety."

The alluringly named "Red spring" (rossaprimavera.ru) approvingly reprints statements from a Chinese newspaper, Global Times, who are "alarmed by an increase in Nazi-like rhetoric among the American Republican right wing." While they infer that this shows an inclination for fascism/terrorism among said right wing, they also link Graham's statements to his past 2016 run for President and imply that he is thirsty for press coverage.

I'm not going to argue for a no-fly-zone because I also appreciate living, but nevertheless it's worth considering exactly which Western actions, and in what way, are actually "escalating" anything.

Fixed it for you moomintrolly.

Are you a child?

Did you see this part right after your hilarious strikethrough, after I specifically said I'm not arguing for a no-fly-zone?

"it's worth considering exactly which Western actions, and in what way, are actually "escalating" anything. A more likely source of escalation seems to be frustration felt at missing out on a splendid little 3-day war and the 'birth of a new world' from that article about the "Ukrainian question" that was published too soon. Now that Putin has invested the Russian army and is still a ways from pulling back or conceding anything, he seems to be stuck on a one-way track of escalation or continuing the indiscriminate bombing and war crimes he's been doing already. Neither will endear him to the West or encourage retreat when it comes to sanctioning Russia and sending aid to Ukraine. There is no way back for Putin that doesn't entail humiliation, admitting you were wrong, or ceding territory to Ukraine. Hard to imagine him doing any of these things."

Please be careful in your reply, lest you anger me to the point of using nuclear weapons against you. It would be a shame if your actions contributed to the escalation of a conflict already on the precipice of a flame war. But then again, perhaps you have no shame?

I don't really see why MT should have to post on the introduce yourself thread - I was suspicious too when they came in guns blazing but they've since been a thoughtful poster and everything I've learned about posters, recent or otherwise, has been in the natural course of the flow of conversation.

sorry for board laywering on this thread tho

That's alright Daniel, lawyer away.

I think it's good to state that there is no 'but' around a no fly zone. Anything that results in playing about what could be escalation is a no go for me and any waffling around it should not interest anybody.