ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I suppose that the idea is that this makes the population that suffers more likely to resent the policy of their government, and to revolt in ways that at least change that government's policy, or even change the government.

this doesn't happen in practice though, look at all the other countries that the us has sanctioned (even if not as harshly). doesn't typically lead to popular rebellions, or regime change for other reasons, and just hurts the people.

the only potentially justifiable use of sanctions here would be to deliberately try to force russia into withdrawing & negotiating a peace settlement - it should be made very clear what the conditions for the sanctions being reduced & lifted are, with actual off-ramps on offer, but that's not what's happening. the west seems to be only interested in punishing russia for punishment's sake & hoping it'll just further dig itself into a prolonged war that it can't truly win & keeps it very internationally isolated, but that's one of the worst outcomes for both the ukrainian and russian people.

Interesting game of chicken going on

EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine is ready for a diplomatic solution, an aide to President Zelenskiy told Bloomberg News, but it needs a security guarantee https://t.co/OVZOSoEnwv

— Bloomberg (@business) March 9, 2022

Russia: Putin's spokesman says he has been debriefed on the military's alleged failure to abide by instructions not to use conscripts in Ukraine war and that prosecutors are now investigating. Question now is who is going to be thrown under the bus? https://t.co/3zagbkpn4p

— Peter Leonard (@Peter__Leonard) March 9, 2022

In Russia's case, maybe literally thrown under the bus.

Re: sanctions, it's worth mentioning that a great deal of the economic backlash against/boycott of Russia has been voluntary, with companies pulling out before anyone asks or demands it of them. Coca Cola is a case in point, as they stayed a few days longer and (maybe) withdrew because of the public backlash, not any government initiative.

In the case of sanctions re: Russia specifically, it's a mixed bag. Starving and immiserating average Russians isn't going to end the war by itself. Putin seems determined to fulfill objectives in Ukraine that go beyond what Zelensky/Ukrainians are currently willing to concede. The state of the Russian army, the Russian economy, and increasing (if not decisive) anti-war sentiment at home have started the country down the path of chaos not seen since the Russian Revolution in 1905. Strikes have broken out in peripheral regions where migrant workers are paid in rubles, now worthless. Mothers in similarly peripheral regions are standing up to governors and asking where their kids are, while the governors respond by saying the troops are being "used" in the operation, and asking for patience, comparing the situation to the Afghanistan war. NOT a good look!

The question here is how long, and how much, is enough. Is it worth it to ruin one country in order to save another? Will Russians mythologize a potential loss the way Germans did after WWI, propagating myths of "never losing on home soil" and being "stabbed in the back?"

Unfortunately, aside from Ukraine magically agreeing to a peace which suits Russia, the decision to stop the war and therefore the sanctions lies first with Putin, then with Western governments, and finally with the businesses that chose to pull out of Russia before they were asked or forced to.

There are few real winners here, Ukraine pays with lives for every day the war continues. Russia seems to have more of that sort of currency on hand so far, but for how long? Personally, I wish Putin would commit suicide with the time-honored Russian method of two shots in the back of the head. But that's probably wishful thinking.

As a counterfactual, let's pretend the invasion happened as is, but instead of economic sanctions and boycotts, we simply funneled the same weapons into Ukraine that we're currently shipping there. Wouldn't this be more heartless, prolonging the war without adverse impact to the Russian economy, while Ukraine continues to lose people and infrastructure? That seems to me to be more of a "permanent Afghanistan" type of scenario than the admittedly ruthless economic pressure we are exerting today.

For what its worth, this seems in many ways like a replay of the original 19th century Crimean War, when Nicholas I badly underestimated Europe's resolve to hold Russia in check. Strange to think British and French (!) forces forty years after Waterloo were uniting with the Ottomans and invading Crimea (!). Unbelievable, and rightly so. Nicholas himself died from the shock of losing the war.

Beau of the Fifth column has a nuanced take on sanctions if you look him up on Youtube, it's from a few days ago. He's also not as biased as I am so check that perspective out if you're looking for nuance.

Putin seems determined to fulfill objectives in Ukraine that go beyond what Zelensky/Ukrainians are currently willing to concede.

that’s one way of putting it lol

Re: sanctions, it's worth mentioning that a great deal of the economic backlash against/boycott of Russia has been voluntary, with companies pulling out before anyone asks or demands it of them.

I've been wondering about how much of this is PR/fear of popular backlash against dealing with Russia at this point, and how much of it is a calculation that, if things continue as they're going, there's not going to be any business worth doing in the territory anyway. Little bit of both probably.

https://www.rappler.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-moscow-breaking-ceasefire-trap-civilians-mariupol/

Previously in Mariupol:

Russia and Ukraine agree to a humanitarian corridor for evacuation.
Russia bombs the corridor during the evacuation.
It is later found out that Russia also mined the corridor.

I've been wondering about how much of this is PR/fear of popular backlash against dealing with Russia at this point, and how much of it is a calculation that, if things continue as they're going, there's not going to be any business worth doing in the territory anyway. Little bit of both probably.

I think the driving force is awareness that business is now practically impossible to conduct. As an example, Cambridge English has suspended all sales of books and exams. There is no public pressure on them to do this and the work they do is unambiguously defensible - having fewer people who can speak English, access outside media, etc, is clearly a bad thing.

How Peter, how can you price a product when the value of the currency changes every day? In USD, perhaps, but your customers can’t buy Dollars any more. How can your customers pay you if they can’t use the international banking system? Even if there is a way to pay technically, how can Russian companies secure permissions required by the government to transfer money abroad, which was a nuisance at the best of times? How can you enforce a legal judgement in the event of non-compliance? Can you even ship a book there with no air freight? What happens if the company you are selling to is owned by a company that’s owned by a company that’s owned by someone on the sanctioned list? How can you run due diligence checks all the way up the chain? It’s just not worth it.

Not sure why autocorrect decided to address you as Peter, there.

Why are you allowing this @TwitterSupport @TwitterSafety https://t.co/Rz3sHoQwh5 pic.twitter.com/zXxdUBBKz0

— Soviet Sergey (@SovietSergey) March 9, 2022

Glad they cleared that up.

Not sure why autocorrect decided to address you as Peter, there.

I don't know either but it certainly added a nice rhetorical élan.

Now the bombing of maternity/children's hospital in Mariupol.
Re sanctions, here's what I posted late last night:

Discussion about sanctions, incl. before this apparently unprecedented level (one guest says they're up to level 7 or 8 now). Host points out that US Gov officials paid a call on Nicholas Maduro last weekend, inquiring about possible replacements for Russian oil, and that Venezuela has been sanctioned for quite a while now. Also some questions about targeting oligarchs vs. general public. NY Times reporter gives rationale:
So even though what Putin had done in order to, in a sense, sanction proof Russia, was build up a huge pile of reserves in foreign currency, and foreign currency exchange reserves. And $643 billion. But, you know, roughly half of that, even though it's owned by Russia, is essentially under the control of banks in the U.S. and Europe and Canada, et cetera. And so those assets are frozen.

"... Now, this is an incredibly powerful tool, and I've spoken to some economists who actually say, If you use this tool and it destabilizes or brings a collapse of the currency, the Russian ruble, you know, you can literally destroy an economy and that we should be careful about how far we want to take this Well yeah.
That's the only part transcribed so far, but whole podcast is here:
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/08/economic-war-and-russia-ukraine-conflict-sanctions

So devalued ruble on one side, frozen assets on the other, but still got some reserves available somewhere.

(sanctions don't) typically lead to popular rebellions, or regime change for other reasons, and just hurts the people.

This is true enough. Much of the outcome will depend on whether Moomintroll's statement is correct that:

The state of the Russian army, the Russian economy, and increasing (if not decisive) anti-war sentiment at home have started the country down the path of chaos not seen since the Russian Revolution in 1905.

Based on historic precedents rather than a clear knowledge of current events in Russia, I'd venture that the resolution of such chaos would rest less with a popular uprising than with the depth of dissatisfaction in the military's officer class and where it focuses. Traditionally, the first objective of any dictator is to win and hold the loyalty of the military. Given the roots of the Russian army in the Red Army of the USSR, there is reason to hope Putin's hold here is not an iron grip.

Meanwhile, the extreme destructive power of modern weaponry may make a shambles of Ukraine before sanctions can force any decisive outcome. Every war is a clusterfuck.

>The state of the Russian army, the Russian economy, and increasing (if not decisive) anti-war sentiment at home have started the country down the path of chaos not seen since the Russian Revolution in 1905.

i don't know if full-on revolt is the objective with the sanctions; but the energy and resources that managing all these pissed off people – and whatever they do, or decide to stop doing – is definitely going to hamper the resources to can send into Ukraine.

Aimless and Thermo Thinwall:

I agree regime change seems a bit optimistic/unrealistic for now. However, you're correct that the military and the industrial infrastructure in Russia can still grind the war to a halt. This is an area where I'm not very well versed but apparently Putin has REALLY put a lot of energy into strengthening the various police arms of the Russian state, to the point of proudly celebrating a State Security Forces Day. They are even now being paid extra bonuses and explicitly told to apply whatever means are necessary to stop protests. There are videos online of a secretly recorded interrogation where they brag that "Putin told us to do this" and that they won't get punished for it.

I'm hoping there's some kind of strong pushback from the armed forces and, as Thermo said, a redirection of resources away from the war in order to clamp down on internal disruptions and unrest. This has a chance of backfiring on the Russian leadership because, at the end of the day, it's the stability of Putin's regime that they valued the most. These empty dreams of a greater Russia might inspire Soviet boomers and a few idiot kids raised on state television, but most people pay more attention to their pocketbook.

The one thing that makes me optimistic is that so much has happened, and so fast, that it's hard to say how things will proceed from here. The cynical attitude that Putin can sit all of this out and remain completely untouched, perhaps even ruling for years to come, is a bit much. We're seeing some stark re-alignments that just *would not have happened* two weeks ago. Nordstream, NATO, America stopping gas imports even as a performative measure...let alone all the changes inside Russia.

Moomin otm, and also one of the best contributors to this thread, glad you're not just lurking now

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNbotppUcAAyt9X?format=jpg&name=medium

Caption in Russian, presumably by a Russian: "Mariupol today, after the bombing of a maternity clinic. They will never forgive us (Russians) for this, and they will be right."

presumably by a Russian

not a reliable presumption during wartime

Ok, as a Russian (though I am an American citizen and have been here for decades), let me tell you: they will never forgive us for this, and they will be right.

that’s the picture on the front of ny times right now. i expect that will be the picture on the front page of most newspapers tomorrow.

I'd really like to ask the GOP's Putin apologists and their fans how pro-life they are now.

But of course, it would be an empty rhetorical question. Anyway, sorry to derail, just really pissed off/saddened by that footage of the maternity hospital.

Profoundly sad, depressed, angry, hard to feel any other way. Hard to process it as I watch the snow fall on my completely quiet, affluent northeast American town.

For all our takes, good or bad, I think we are all partly just trying to cope with despair and helplessness watching atrocities unfold in real time.

OTM

Hell of a lot in this thread but it’s good info

Many argue that sanctions are "ineffective". That’s false. They are already highly effective in undermining Russian military efforts and can be made even more efficient. They can guarantee that Russia loses this war if they are goal-oriented and not moral crusade-oriented🧵 pic.twitter.com/gfLhTUIvqw

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 9, 2022

Thanks! Was just now reading about banks, sanctions, and oligarchs, on a Swiss news site (several links in the original):

...In the current case, no bank would want to risk the reputational damage of being seen to have indirectly supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite Switzerland only imposing an asset freeze on February 28, it is likely that Swiss banks would already have been observing EU and US sanctions put in place days earlier.

“Banks would have closed their doors since the introduction of US sanctions,” Peter V. Kunz, director of the Institute for Business Law at the University of Bern, told Swiss public broadcaster SRF. “No Swiss bank wants to get caught in the crosshairs of the US authorities.”

The introduction of sanctions might entail winding down trades or loans a bank has arranged on behalf of a sanctioned client. Even before the latest round of sanctions, Credit Suisse had reportedly off-loaded the risk of oligarchs defaulting on loans issued to buy yachts, jets and real estate. The Financial Times has seen documents that report defaults caused by “US sanctions against Russian oligarchs”.

Shortly after the article was published, the bank allegedly asked hedge funds and other investors to destroy documents relating to oligarch yacht loans. Credit Suisse later issued a statement saying the request to dispose of documents was not linked to sanctions on Russians.
A separate article about that is also linked from this page.
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/the-russian-oligarchs--billions-frozen-in-swiss-banks/47399240

xpost Interesting stuff. That's where I give some weight to stories of Putin's covid-induced isolation, especially after his perhaps confidence inflating run with Trump. Did he really not foresee any of this happening? Did he really envision himself winning (whatever that looks like) militarily *and* economically? As many have noted, Russia's economy is a relative pittance, and as that thread points out, China is neither peer nor ally, just the only big economy willing to do relatively unfettered business with them on any real scale. As I posted somewhere way upthread, when the only people firmly on your side are North Korea, Syria, and Belarus, and even China is somewhat ambivalent (and in a position to be so), you know you've really stepped in it. Because even if Russia withdrew *right now*, today, how do things go back to normal? How can the country be trusted? Putin took what was essentially an uneasy detente with the west and turned the bullshit dial up to red with very little to gain and a ton to lose.

Related:

🧵Two weeks ago, as Vladimir Putin was declaring his vicious war on Ukraine, he called the West an "Empire of Lies." In fact, the Kremlin's disastrous move was itself rooted in lies, misconceptions and giant lapses of expertise & intelligence. 1/ pic.twitter.com/5vi5J0Begq

— Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 (@AlexGabuev) March 10, 2022

The Pentagon on Wednesday ruled out any U.S. participation in efforts to send Ukraine additional fighter aircraft, warning that such a step could be seen by Russian leaders as “escalatory” while assessing any potential gains would be “low.”

“We do not support the transfer,” the Defense Department’s chief spokesman, John Kirby, told reporters at the Pentagon, citing intelligence suggesting that the United States taking such steps at this time could be a “mistake.”

Many people are asking how they can help people in Ukraine right now. One way is to make a donation.@valeria_wants and I have a list of confirmed orgs that are accepting individual donations. More to come as we update. Useful options here. https://t.co/SzTanQYO8O

— Tom Rowley (@te_rowley) March 2, 2022

If I had to randomly guess -- and it's pretty fucking random I grant -- but given these past two weeks and where things are, I kinda assume at this point that Russian losses overall -- people as well as equipment -- are much higher than anyone's claimed, and that that's intentional obfuscation all around. (Russia would never admit it, while Ukraine would find it useful to underplay a bit in turn, even while claiming higher numbers than Russia is.) That's as much as I'll ever guess on anything in this horrible mess, though.

NYT reported this morning that Russia has at this point arrested 13K of its citizens for protesting

there are anecdotal stories about Russians who have not attended protests or posted on social media receiving visits from the police who say "We've heard you are against the government."

And then again, there's this

Even Kremlin TV Admits Ukraine Disaster Has Putin in Trouble

State propagandists called for Putin to end the “special military operation” before “frightening” sanctions destabilize his regime and risk civil war in Russia.https://t.co/jiJqylzB0g

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) March 10, 2022

Even the infamous show run by Vladimir Soloviev—who was recently sanctioned as an accomplice of Putin by the European Union—became dominated by predictions of Russian doom and gloom. Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, cautioned: “For our country, this period won’t be easy. It will be very difficult. It might be even more difficult than it was for the Soviet Union from 1945 until the 1960s... We’re more integrated into the global economy than the Soviet Union, we’re more dependent on imports—and the main part is that the Cold War is the war of the minds, first and foremost. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union had a consolidating idea on which its system was built. Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia has nothing like that to offer.”

State TV pundit Karen Shakhnazarov pointed out: “The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society. Ukraine, whichever way you see it, is something with which Russia has thousands of human links. The suffering of one group of innocents does not compensate for the suffering of other innocent people... I don’t see the probability of denazification of such an enormous country. We would need to bring in 1.5 million soldiers to control all of it. At the same time, I don’t see any political power that would consolidate the Ukrainian society in a pro-Russian direction... Those who talked of their mass attraction to Russia obviously didn’t see things the way they are. The most important thing in this scenario is to stop our military action. Others will say that sanctions will remain. Yes, they will remain, but in my opinion discontinuing the active phase of a military operation is very important.”

Resorting to the traditional propaganda tropes prevalent in Russian state media, Shakhnazarov accused the United States of starting the war—and trying to prolong it indefinitely. He speculated: “What are they achieving by prolonging the war? First of all, public opinion within Russia is changing. People are shocked by the masses of refugees, the humanitarian catastrophe, people start to imagine themselves in their place. It’s starting to affect them. To say that the Nazis are doing that is not quite convincing, strictly speaking... On top of that, economic sanctions will start to affect them, and seriously. There will probably be scarcity. A lot of products we don’t produce, even the simplest ones. There’ll be unemployment. They really thought through these sanctions, they’re hitting us with real continuity. It’s a well-planned operation... Yes, this is a war of the United States with Russia... These sanctions are hitting us very precisely. This threatens the change of public opinion in Russia, the destabilization of our power structures... with the possibility of a full destabilization of the country and a civil war. This apocalyptic scenario is based on the script written by the Americans. They benefit through us dragging out the military operation. We need to end it somehow. If we achieved the demilitarization and freed the Donbas, that is sufficient... I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv. I can’t imagine how that would look. If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us. This public opinion, with which they’re saturating the entire world, can play out badly for us... Ending this operation will stabilize things within the country.”

The host frowned at the apparent departure from the officially-approved line of thinking and deferred to the commander-in-chief. However, the next expert agreed with Shakhnazarov. Semyon Bagdasarov, a Russian Middle East expert, grimly said: “We didn’t even feel the impact of the sanctions just yet... We need to be ready for total isolation. I’m not panicking, just calling things by their proper name.”

Soloviev angrily sniped: “Gotcha. We should just lay down and die.”

Also, a bit rich

To lighten the mood in the studio, the host resorted to one of the favorite pastimes of many Kremlin propagandists: playing yet another Fox News clip of Tucker Carlson and his frequent guest Ret. Col. Doug Macgregor. In the translated video, Macgregor predicted Russia’s easy military victories over Ukraine and its total invincibility to western sanctions. Soloviev sighed and smiled: “He’s a lot more optimistic than my previous experts in the studio.”

https://i.imgur.com/TX84ZoV.jpg

As usual, they didn't take into account the opinion of the Ukrainian Tractor Babushka Strike Force

For those looking to relax a bit, here is some light reading and very, very sexy pictures of tractors. Looking forward to the OnlyFans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Tractor_Plant

Idiot warmongering

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) on not to providing Polish fighter jets to Ukraine: "It seems to me that Vladimir Putin simply deterred the U.S. government from providing these aircraft by saying they would view this as escalatory." pic.twitter.com/lC1QrczJ3H

— CSPAN (@cspan) March 10, 2022

Even Kremlin TV Admits Ukraine Disaster Has Putin in Trouble

Dag, when you've lost the state sanctioned propaganda channel that you control and run ...

Wow @ that talk show summary!

This apocalyptic scenario is based on the script written by the Americans. They benefit through us dragging out the military operation.

Ehhh, not sure about this part

If it allows the war to end sooner and gives the Russians a path to their full withdrawal from Ukraine while saving face, I'd be happy to let them blame it all on the US.

This morning on US cable news networks: drone footage, apparently, from outskirts of Kyiv, showing Russian tank formations in flames, gutted. Mayor quoted: city now half empty, but Russians still consider it the great prize.

Also, The EU leaders meet in Versailles outside Paris for a two-day summit starting Thursday and will be working on ways to “phase out our dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports,” said a draft of the summit declaration seen by The Associated Press.

The European Commission unveiled proposals Tuesday to make that happen, including diversifying natural gas supplies and speeding up renewable energy development. The EU’s executive arm said its measures “can reduce EU demand for Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of the year.”

...Besides ramping up renewables, the EU’s commission said Europe could diversify its energy supply by purchasing more liquefied natural gas brought by ship instead of through pipelines from Russia and by getting more pipeline imports from non-Russian suppliers. Those could include Norway and Azerbaijan.

Larger volumes of biomethane from organic sources such as agricultural waste and production of hydrogen for fuel cells could contribute, too.

The EU commission also said it would seek legislation to require that underground gas reserves be filled to at least 90% by the start of the winter heating season. Failure to do that this year led to extremely high gas prices.

The commission said it also was looking at more measures to help consumers, such as temporary limits to electricity prices.

Execution of much of the EU’s plan rests with national governments that all have different energy mixes and levels of vulnerability to a gas embargo or cutoff. Germany, Italy and several Eastern European EU members are most dependent.

Europe’s pipeline system is not set up so that shipments of liquefied gas can easily reach all corners of the continent. While liquefied gas shipments have increased, energy analysts say a total cutoff of Russian gas could only be overcome by forced reduction in gas use, first by industrial users.
from https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-paris-european-union-f48482d9cc49497c186f85f556181322

Sure it's shaped for propaganda...but it is interesting.

An interesting and notable change in the last day in public communications by Zelensky and the Ukrainian Defense Secretary. There is talk of victory in a more imminent sense. https://t.co/ibYGK7TL3W

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 10, 2022

A clear sense of confidence, indeed a taunting of the Russians. https://t.co/g09r3J471o

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 10, 2022

Last night on BBC, an American, former Defense Dept. consultant, saying that Russians may create a false flag attack with chemical or biological weapons, to justify their own use in Ukraine (they used them in Syria). Now Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, along with denying invasion, is saying that the US is manufacturing biological weapons there, although don't think he's mentioned xp Dr. Fauci yet.

One of the few upsides to this catastrophe is that hopefully people will get used to the idea of collectively 'sacrificing' in order to achieve a greater good. As creepy as that sounds, we're entering a century of climate change and possible political upheaval that we haven't really had since the 1600's at the apex of "the Little Ice Age."

https://www.amazon.com/Global-Crisis-Climate-Catastrophe-Seventeenth/dp/0300153236

(Parker's theses have been challenged but this remains a good introduction)

In short, we can't continue to rely on, or hope for, unlimited gas and oil, low energy prices, unlimited consumer goods and low prices, and so on and so forth. It's not just "unsustainable" in an abstract sense. The "business as usual" approach will either kill us through famines/droughts/extreme weather, or contribute to worldwide political instability that will finish the job.

From this standpoint, it's not a coincidence that Russia is one of the few countries openly slavering for more global warming (to exploit its northern energy deposits and the Arctic overall). Nor is it by chance that one of the world's foremost oil and gas exporters has started a war of choice with Ukraine, where just a decade ago large deposits of shale were discovered on its territory, and large deposits of natural gas in the Black Sea (many of them in territorial waters around Crimea).

We should have spent the last twenty years pouring billions upon billions into renewable energy; it is both the moral and the strategically sound thing to do. I know most of you probably agree, but we're still living in a world where conservative media blames Greta Thunberg's climate activism for the Ukraine war.

Do we really need a new vcr, dvd player, blue ray player, 4k tv, 8k tv, every couple years? $1,000 iPhones? I love my games and shows as much as anyone but if "sacrifice" means chilling out about buying new tech every year, it doesn't seem as bad as turning the world into Mad Max so we can stream the new Marvel movie on our internet-connected refrigerator.