ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Any chance you could respond to my post before you do so?

i also found the crimethinc link helpful when Table posted it. it painted what at least felt like a very plausible portrait of a complexly factional situation and its shifting dynamics.

Just to say that "I think this scenario would prob avoid the most bloodshed and as such would be best" is not the same as "I believe I have the moral authority to tell the Ukranian people how they should proceed", though I understand how it could be read that way.

xposts

@gyac

You are correct to be worried about UK fascists training in Ukraine with fascists and "bringing back" those skills to your homeland. I agree with you 100% on this and was mainly talking about the frequent use of "Azov" as a catch-all for concern trolling about Ukraine. Especially when the Russia-based Wagner group is making waves in Ukraine currently, and the (former) commander Strelkov got his start in wartorn Yugoslavia running with Serbian death squads, and post-USSR Russian wars like Transnistria and Chechnya. The rot of former empires presents many opportunities for these kinds of abhorrent personalities to emerge and thrive. The weapons left behind by both Yugoslavia and the USSR also figured hugely in the atrocities which were committed on these lands.

Thank you, I appreciate this very much! I was also interested in the second part of my post (wrt anti-imperialism as it pertains to people from areas that were formally part of an empire, as in fact several of us that have been targets of your posts are).

Frequent use of "Azov" as a catch-all for concern trolling about Ukraine. Haven't noticed reference to "Azov" as catch-all, also don't see any concern "trolling," and nobody's said "peace at any price," or that Ukraine should have a settlement forced on them, though your use of "my people" in quotes seems appropriate, since concern about Azov is what brings you out of the shadows.

I am honestly not sure exactly what you meant. I do not at *all* mean to trivialize the suffering of ordinary Ukrainians or claim to speak *for* them (beyond my obvious negative views re: Russian imperialism/irredentism/fascism). Hence my main point that this is THEIR decision to make.

Whatever I might feel about "liberating" Ukraine from "Russian imperialism" is immaterial if the majority of Ukrainians are willing to stop the war now, to accept a Ukrainian rump state, or simply the total occupation of the country. I might think it's bad or would lead to a worse situation but it's not my decision to condemn, especially when (as you point out) real people are out there suffering.

I don't think I made any forays into American politics unless you mean me being sick of hearing "NATO expansion." My main problem with the NATO line is that it ignores literally hundreds of years of history and even decades of history leading up to this moment, where NATO did not seem to play a crucial role re: Russian motivations. For instance when Bush foolishly talked about Ukraine/Georgia joining NATO in 2008, months before the Georgia war, there was little popular support in Ukraine for NATO, and protests in Kyiv against joining.

I think the ramp-up of Putin's unique brand of "Make Russia Great Again" has been portrayed as a reaction to NATO whereas he's basically been doing this of his own accord rather than being "forced" into a given position, let alone a war like this. NATO, in his eyes, seems to be a force that may stop him from doing his own "Iraq 2003" type wars of choice, rather than a threat to Russian security. And Ukraine, in his eyes, seems to be an economic/cultural issue (kick their ass, take their gas, make them Russians before it's too late). His main problem with the West seems to be that America got to "do" Iraq but he can't "do" this.

OK you said you were going to take a break, so do that.

@dow By "my people" I meant Russians. I am Russian. I put it in quotes because I do not want to associate with a great deal of said people in Russia at the moment, for reasons which should be obvious. If you think I am defending the Azov battalion or covering for it, I cannot prove the reverse, and I cannot ask you to take my position on faith or trust me. We'll just have to disagree.

I am obviously more concerned with Russian Nazis, Russian fascism, and Russian imperialism, because I used to live there and it's the place where I learned about The Great Patriotic War and fighting fascists to begin with. It is a tragedy, but also an emotional gut punch, that this country, with its legacy, is now trying to turn its citizens into the same kind of fascists they were once so proud of defeating.

xp no harm for you to do the same, Dow.

MoominTrollin, just v briefly as I want to stop posting itt myself. I was meaning your remarks about “peace at any price” which seemed to have been prompted by darraghmac’s posts. Dmac & I are both Irish so our context is that our history is very much about making painful concessions for peace, it is nothing to do with whatever other motive you ascribed but just asking you to remember that not everyone itt is an American and that the Ukrainian position is terrible but also very understandable to us.

My second point was just about the deluge of bad content posted to this thread by Americans and did not relate to you, except that I found it interesting that you seized upon the posts I mentioned and not those which I thought to be more tasteless ito being armchair general nonsense, uninformed, or both. Sometimes I think people post itt like they’re watching a film, and sometimes I also think people from the country with enough nukes to vaporise us all a million times over could stand to consider about crimes being done in their name too. But that’s really it, I promise.

@gyac Both good points. I certainly didn't mean to single out Irish posters in particular. Adding "lads" did not, alas, help my point. Making painful concessions for peace, in this context, makes more sense. I also have no problem being against, or focusing on, American bad takes re: this war. Thanks for your replies.

To paraphrase some Roman dude quoting some Greek dude:

"Each one of us is allotted his own brand of foolishness. But we never look into the knapsack of nonsense on our own back."

I will take a good look right now.

could stand to consider about crimes being done in their name too

I would assume most of the Americans posting ITT (myself included) opposed Iraq, Libya, don't like us arming the Saudis against Yemen, etc.

i value your perspective itt. it's not like this thing isn't full of questionable takes by folks that have no idea what they are talking about (me included) xp

spouse just picked up a family (grandmother, mom and her little son) from Ukraine at the train station and are staying the night at least. Said the scene at the train station was heartbreaking.

N+1 with more exceptional Ukraine coverage. Dispatch from a Russian journalist in Odessa, which originally ran in Novaya Gazeta. Reminds me of the work of the great Belarusian journalist Svetlana Alexievich in how she kind of recedes into the background and lets people's voices carry the story:

https://www.nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/sandbagging-in-odessa/

seconded, great piece and a more intimate perspective

This seems like the kind of thing a great power confident of its inevitable decisive victory does, right?

Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday.
Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP)
All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble.

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) March 8, 2022

And with VISA pulling out... will we get back to the wheel barrows full of worthless notes to buy a loaf of bread?

Discussion about sanctions, incl. before this apparently unprecedented level (one guest says they're up to level 7 or 8 now). Host points out that US Gov officials paid a call on Nicholas Maduro last weekend, inquiring about possible replacements for Russian oil, and that Venezuela has been sanctioned for quite a while now. Also some questions about targeting oligarchs vs. general public. NY Times reporter gives rationale:
So even though what Putin had done in order to, in a sense, sanction proof Russia, was build up a huge pile of reserves in foreign currency, and foreign currency exchange reserves. And $643 billion. But, you know, roughly half of that, even though it's owned by Russia, is essentially under the control of banks in the U.S. and Europe and Canada, et cetera. And so those assets are frozen.

"... Now, this is an incredibly powerful tool, and I've spoken to some economists who actually say, If you use this tool and it destabilizes or brings a collapse of the currency, the Russian ruble, you know, you can literally destroy an economy and that we should be careful about how far we want to take this Well yeah.
That's the only part transcribed so far, but whole podcast is here:
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/08/economic-war-and-russia-ukraine-conflict-sanctions

S-'s link is for donating directly to the Ukranian military to help with buying weapons, quite a different thing than bandcamp charities for children affected by the war and such I think.

― Daniel_Rf, Tuesday, 8 March 2022 10:25 (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Not true. 'My' government (among many others) is donating the "lethal aid": https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australian-support-ukraine

Armia SOS main call is for bandages, then helmets and bulletproof vests. https://armysos.com.ua/en/

In that respect it is the same as the 'Return Alive' fund mentioned in Ned's first Bandcamp charity link! https://www.comebackalive.in.ua/

More about xpost letter Z as currently used by some Russians:
https://www.aol.com/news/why-letter-z-become-russia-214940443.html

Thanks for clarifying S.

Well well

#BREAKING Russia says not trying to 'overthrow' Ukraine government pic.twitter.com/x0q2ii14zj

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 9, 2022

"When we asked the Ukrainian military to negotiate with us directly, that was just a joke. Maybe you don't understand Russian humour"

What a country.

I am going to come out and say that I worry about sanctions. In so many other countries where draconian sanctions have been put in place, populations have suffered immensely while elites have been able to float, or at least haven't been impacted as much. I don't anticipate any different happening in Russia, and as much as I am against what Russian forces are doing to Ukraine,.I don't think that starving a bunch of innocent people is the proper move.

"we must save this country's population by starving this other country's population, it is the humanitarian thing to do!!"

Like what?

I suppose that the idea is that this makes the population that suffers more likely to resent the policy of their government, and to revolt in ways that at least change that government's policy, or even change the government.

I'm unsure whether this happens, or will happen, or whether it would be morally justified if it did happen; but it seems logically coherent on its own terms.

If anyone is going to go hungry as a result of this war I would think it would be in one of the countries that usually imports wheat from Ukraine. Russia is a big wheat exporter.

Um, have you looked at the decline of the ruble? When countries' whole currency is devalued, people starve.

yeah I think if you're broke your country's wheat exporting rates aren't that relevant

I suppose that the idea is that this makes the population that suffers more likely to resent the policy of their government, and to revolt in ways that at least change that government's policy, or even change the government.

this doesn't happen in practice though, look at all the other countries that the us has sanctioned (even if not as harshly). doesn't typically lead to popular rebellions, or regime change for other reasons, and just hurts the people.

the only potentially justifiable use of sanctions here would be to deliberately try to force russia into withdrawing & negotiating a peace settlement - it should be made very clear what the conditions for the sanctions being reduced & lifted are, with actual off-ramps on offer, but that's not what's happening. the west seems to be only interested in punishing russia for punishment's sake & hoping it'll just further dig itself into a prolonged war that it can't truly win & keeps it very internationally isolated, but that's one of the worst outcomes for both the ukrainian and russian people.

Interesting game of chicken going on

EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine is ready for a diplomatic solution, an aide to President Zelenskiy told Bloomberg News, but it needs a security guarantee https://t.co/OVZOSoEnwv

— Bloomberg (@business) March 9, 2022

Russia: Putin's spokesman says he has been debriefed on the military's alleged failure to abide by instructions not to use conscripts in Ukraine war and that prosecutors are now investigating. Question now is who is going to be thrown under the bus? https://t.co/3zagbkpn4p

— Peter Leonard (@Peter__Leonard) March 9, 2022

In Russia's case, maybe literally thrown under the bus.

Re: sanctions, it's worth mentioning that a great deal of the economic backlash against/boycott of Russia has been voluntary, with companies pulling out before anyone asks or demands it of them. Coca Cola is a case in point, as they stayed a few days longer and (maybe) withdrew because of the public backlash, not any government initiative.

In the case of sanctions re: Russia specifically, it's a mixed bag. Starving and immiserating average Russians isn't going to end the war by itself. Putin seems determined to fulfill objectives in Ukraine that go beyond what Zelensky/Ukrainians are currently willing to concede. The state of the Russian army, the Russian economy, and increasing (if not decisive) anti-war sentiment at home have started the country down the path of chaos not seen since the Russian Revolution in 1905. Strikes have broken out in peripheral regions where migrant workers are paid in rubles, now worthless. Mothers in similarly peripheral regions are standing up to governors and asking where their kids are, while the governors respond by saying the troops are being "used" in the operation, and asking for patience, comparing the situation to the Afghanistan war. NOT a good look!

The question here is how long, and how much, is enough. Is it worth it to ruin one country in order to save another? Will Russians mythologize a potential loss the way Germans did after WWI, propagating myths of "never losing on home soil" and being "stabbed in the back?"

Unfortunately, aside from Ukraine magically agreeing to a peace which suits Russia, the decision to stop the war and therefore the sanctions lies first with Putin, then with Western governments, and finally with the businesses that chose to pull out of Russia before they were asked or forced to.

There are few real winners here, Ukraine pays with lives for every day the war continues. Russia seems to have more of that sort of currency on hand so far, but for how long? Personally, I wish Putin would commit suicide with the time-honored Russian method of two shots in the back of the head. But that's probably wishful thinking.

As a counterfactual, let's pretend the invasion happened as is, but instead of economic sanctions and boycotts, we simply funneled the same weapons into Ukraine that we're currently shipping there. Wouldn't this be more heartless, prolonging the war without adverse impact to the Russian economy, while Ukraine continues to lose people and infrastructure? That seems to me to be more of a "permanent Afghanistan" type of scenario than the admittedly ruthless economic pressure we are exerting today.

For what its worth, this seems in many ways like a replay of the original 19th century Crimean War, when Nicholas I badly underestimated Europe's resolve to hold Russia in check. Strange to think British and French (!) forces forty years after Waterloo were uniting with the Ottomans and invading Crimea (!). Unbelievable, and rightly so. Nicholas himself died from the shock of losing the war.

Beau of the Fifth column has a nuanced take on sanctions if you look him up on Youtube, it's from a few days ago. He's also not as biased as I am so check that perspective out if you're looking for nuance.

Putin seems determined to fulfill objectives in Ukraine that go beyond what Zelensky/Ukrainians are currently willing to concede.

that’s one way of putting it lol

Re: sanctions, it's worth mentioning that a great deal of the economic backlash against/boycott of Russia has been voluntary, with companies pulling out before anyone asks or demands it of them.

I've been wondering about how much of this is PR/fear of popular backlash against dealing with Russia at this point, and how much of it is a calculation that, if things continue as they're going, there's not going to be any business worth doing in the territory anyway. Little bit of both probably.

https://www.rappler.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-moscow-breaking-ceasefire-trap-civilians-mariupol/

Previously in Mariupol:

Russia and Ukraine agree to a humanitarian corridor for evacuation.
Russia bombs the corridor during the evacuation.
It is later found out that Russia also mined the corridor.

I've been wondering about how much of this is PR/fear of popular backlash against dealing with Russia at this point, and how much of it is a calculation that, if things continue as they're going, there's not going to be any business worth doing in the territory anyway. Little bit of both probably.

I think the driving force is awareness that business is now practically impossible to conduct. As an example, Cambridge English has suspended all sales of books and exams. There is no public pressure on them to do this and the work they do is unambiguously defensible - having fewer people who can speak English, access outside media, etc, is clearly a bad thing.

How Peter, how can you price a product when the value of the currency changes every day? In USD, perhaps, but your customers can’t buy Dollars any more. How can your customers pay you if they can’t use the international banking system? Even if there is a way to pay technically, how can Russian companies secure permissions required by the government to transfer money abroad, which was a nuisance at the best of times? How can you enforce a legal judgement in the event of non-compliance? Can you even ship a book there with no air freight? What happens if the company you are selling to is owned by a company that’s owned by a company that’s owned by someone on the sanctioned list? How can you run due diligence checks all the way up the chain? It’s just not worth it.

Not sure why autocorrect decided to address you as Peter, there.

Why are you allowing this @TwitterSupport @TwitterSafety https://t.co/Rz3sHoQwh5 pic.twitter.com/zXxdUBBKz0

— Soviet Sergey (@SovietSergey) March 9, 2022

Glad they cleared that up.

Not sure why autocorrect decided to address you as Peter, there.

I don't know either but it certainly added a nice rhetorical élan.

Now the bombing of maternity/children's hospital in Mariupol.
Re sanctions, here's what I posted late last night:

Discussion about sanctions, incl. before this apparently unprecedented level (one guest says they're up to level 7 or 8 now). Host points out that US Gov officials paid a call on Nicholas Maduro last weekend, inquiring about possible replacements for Russian oil, and that Venezuela has been sanctioned for quite a while now. Also some questions about targeting oligarchs vs. general public. NY Times reporter gives rationale:
So even though what Putin had done in order to, in a sense, sanction proof Russia, was build up a huge pile of reserves in foreign currency, and foreign currency exchange reserves. And $643 billion. But, you know, roughly half of that, even though it's owned by Russia, is essentially under the control of banks in the U.S. and Europe and Canada, et cetera. And so those assets are frozen.

"... Now, this is an incredibly powerful tool, and I've spoken to some economists who actually say, If you use this tool and it destabilizes or brings a collapse of the currency, the Russian ruble, you know, you can literally destroy an economy and that we should be careful about how far we want to take this Well yeah.
That's the only part transcribed so far, but whole podcast is here:
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/08/economic-war-and-russia-ukraine-conflict-sanctions

So devalued ruble on one side, frozen assets on the other, but still got some reserves available somewhere.

(sanctions don't) typically lead to popular rebellions, or regime change for other reasons, and just hurts the people.

This is true enough. Much of the outcome will depend on whether Moomintroll's statement is correct that:

The state of the Russian army, the Russian economy, and increasing (if not decisive) anti-war sentiment at home have started the country down the path of chaos not seen since the Russian Revolution in 1905.

Based on historic precedents rather than a clear knowledge of current events in Russia, I'd venture that the resolution of such chaos would rest less with a popular uprising than with the depth of dissatisfaction in the military's officer class and where it focuses. Traditionally, the first objective of any dictator is to win and hold the loyalty of the military. Given the roots of the Russian army in the Red Army of the USSR, there is reason to hope Putin's hold here is not an iron grip.

Meanwhile, the extreme destructive power of modern weaponry may make a shambles of Ukraine before sanctions can force any decisive outcome. Every war is a clusterfuck.

>The state of the Russian army, the Russian economy, and increasing (if not decisive) anti-war sentiment at home have started the country down the path of chaos not seen since the Russian Revolution in 1905.

i don't know if full-on revolt is the objective with the sanctions; but the energy and resources that managing all these pissed off people – and whatever they do, or decide to stop doing – is definitely going to hamper the resources to can send into Ukraine.

Aimless and Thermo Thinwall:

I agree regime change seems a bit optimistic/unrealistic for now. However, you're correct that the military and the industrial infrastructure in Russia can still grind the war to a halt. This is an area where I'm not very well versed but apparently Putin has REALLY put a lot of energy into strengthening the various police arms of the Russian state, to the point of proudly celebrating a State Security Forces Day. They are even now being paid extra bonuses and explicitly told to apply whatever means are necessary to stop protests. There are videos online of a secretly recorded interrogation where they brag that "Putin told us to do this" and that they won't get punished for it.

I'm hoping there's some kind of strong pushback from the armed forces and, as Thermo said, a redirection of resources away from the war in order to clamp down on internal disruptions and unrest. This has a chance of backfiring on the Russian leadership because, at the end of the day, it's the stability of Putin's regime that they valued the most. These empty dreams of a greater Russia might inspire Soviet boomers and a few idiot kids raised on state television, but most people pay more attention to their pocketbook.

The one thing that makes me optimistic is that so much has happened, and so fast, that it's hard to say how things will proceed from here. The cynical attitude that Putin can sit all of this out and remain completely untouched, perhaps even ruling for years to come, is a bit much. We're seeing some stark re-alignments that just *would not have happened* two weeks ago. Nordstream, NATO, America stopping gas imports even as a performative measure...let alone all the changes inside Russia.

Moomin otm, and also one of the best contributors to this thread, glad you're not just lurking now

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNbotppUcAAyt9X?format=jpg&name=medium

Caption in Russian, presumably by a Russian: "Mariupol today, after the bombing of a maternity clinic. They will never forgive us (Russians) for this, and they will be right."