ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

unfortunately accepting something like those terms is likely the best way to end the war.

End, or postpone?

nato isn't going to directly intervene to help ukraine because it risks a catastrophic expansion of the conflict. so ukraine is not in a position to win in a direct military confrontation. basically, we are looking at a protracted occupation and insurgency unless the russian army goes home.

so yeah, these terms are not good and they undermine ukrainian sovereignty by limiting their right of association, but they don't seem to have another option.

maybe a more creative person can envision a better outcome.

Crimea and NATO are possible bargaining chips but giving up any potential EU membership and Donbas would be difficult.

Russia’s angle on the Minsk agreements was that Russia-leaning areas of Ukraine could permanently frustrate any major foreign policy move like NATO / EU membership. There aren’t really going to be any Russia-leaning areas of Ukraine after this, particularly if the LNR / DNR become independent, so the only ongoing leverage on future governments would be the threat of reinvasion.

At the same time, the coup / revolution in 2014 was motivated by the failure to sign an EU trade deal and there have been repeated threats to coup Zelenskiy during his time in office if he took closer European integration off the table, so it would be a recipe for decades of domestic instability.

Don't they do more than undermine Ukrainian sovereignty by forcing Ukraine to accept that three more or less invaded (and one presumes permanently occupied) regions now belong to Russia, and that they are not going to do anything about it? Doesn't that invite further incursions with no notice? I don't know a better solution, but I suppose that hinges on just what problem Ukraine wants to solve.

this seems bad

Putin appears to be laying the groundwork for a nuclear strike. pic.twitter.com/zQDxxEu2E1

— Rick Perlstein (@rickperlstein) March 7, 2022

Kharkiv is 40km from the Russian border. It’s probably safe to assume Russia isn’t going to nuke it.

By "nuclear strike" do we mean that Russia intends to use a nuclear weapon, or that they intend to strike that nuclear reactor and blame Ukraine? The former seems unlikely, and either way I don't think it's worth jumping to such conclusions based on 1 piece of Russian propaganda.

xp

>> we are looking at a protracted occupation and insurgency unless until the russian army goes home

Ukraine is a big country. Much bigger and more populous than Afghanistan, where the Russians were bogged down for yeeeeears. Even if they seize the major cities, the idea that they're going to be able to "occupy" or control the country without just flattening it (which is really hard to call a victory, since what will Russia have gained?) is kind of hard to credit. The Ukrainians are going to resist to the last man, the Russian soldiers don't want to be there, and the EU will flood the country with weapons. It will be one of the best funded insurgencies ever. And economic sanctions against Russia will persist every day they're still in Ukraine. This is a no-win situation for Putin; the only question is how much damage he does to Ukraine and other countries while grinding his way toward his eventual massive, catastrophic, Russia-rupturing failure.

Isn't Putin worried at all about other regions in Russia deciding now is great time to declare independence while the entire Russian army is bogged down in Ukraine?

tbf afghanistan has a very weird terrain and climate which make it next to impossible for anyone to control

Ukraine is a big country. Much bigger and more populous than Afghanistan, where the Russians were bogged down for yeeeeears.

this was my point? ukrainians fighting "to the last man" and the cities existing in a state of constant guerilla warfare is not a good option for ukrainians.

without just flattening it (which is really hard to call a victory, since what will Russia have gained?)

everything it says it wants?

Even if they seize the major cities, the idea that they're going to be able to "occupy" or control the country without just flattening it (which is really hard to call a victory, since what will Russia have gained?) is kind of hard to credit.

Unfortunately, the mindset of leaders who have fully committed their nation to a war of attrition, fighting an opponent too weak to conquer them, is to keep rolling the dice in the expectation that their opponent will eventually weaken to where they capitulate or the war simply peters out in the face of superior force. And, yes, Putin would call that a victory.

idk what part of "biden wouldnt tolerate a communist mexico" isnt getting through here tbh, every other theory seems to find followers

Isn't that essentially Mearsheimer's point? He says NATO should have let Russia have its sphere of influence, not expanded to Eastern Europe.

A long-term insurgency seems likely, and I'm wondering about effects/pressures of that, also of long-term sanctions, on West and Russia, also world economy.

Here is the full video of Ukraine's women-warriors' address to Russians. I am so proud. pic.twitter.com/EOzS9YlU9W

— Nika Melkozerova (@NikaMelkozerova) March 7, 2022

(re Professor Look Back In Realness, should NATO now abandon its Eastern members? How bout former Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Poland, Hungary? Will it be that or Nukes?)

question mark shouldn't be there xp

Uh, Afghanistan is bigger than Ukraine.

Also there's not that big a difference in the size of their population.

Based on the New Yorker interview, I would guess that Mearsheimer would say it was a mistake to admit those Eastern countries to NATO, but that now that it's done, he seems to think that Russia can live with it provided that we give them some of the other things they want. Unfortunately Chotiner was more interested in playing gotcha than getting him to talk about what he thinks we should do now.

xps

Update: US official: Russia has brought 100% of its forces mobilized for the war to Ukraine.

— EndGameWW3 🇺🇸 (@EndGameWW3) March 7, 2022

Further to that, so far:

The Pentagon does not seen any indications of additional Russian forces moving toward Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says.

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 7, 2022

Russians don’t want to give 110%. Typical.

However, in response to the question about why Mearsheimer-style realism isn't that popular right now, I guess it's pretty obvious. When you have people fighting and dying for an ideal of freedom right in front of your eyes, its very distasteful to say they should just accept their station as a neighbor of the Russian bear and not dream too big.

Mearsheimer also has the problem of being a China hawk, which makes his (mostly correct IMO) NATO/Eastern European argument a bit odd given that he'd likely want us to go to war for Taiwan's sovereignty.

Based on this Mearsheimer article from 2014, he seems to accept that at some point the cost to the US of guaranteeing Taiwan's security will outweigh the strategic benefit:

All of this is to say that the United States is likely to be somewhat schizophrenic about Taiwan in the decades ahead. On one hand, it has powerful incentives to make it part of a balancing coalition aimed at containing China. On the other hand, there are good reasons to think that with the passage of time the benefits of maintaining close ties with Taiwan will be outweighed by the potential costs, which are likely to be huge. Of course, in the near term, the United States will protect Taiwan and treat it as a strategic asset. But how long that relationship lasts is an open question.

And China is supporting Russia's Ukraine Initiative, for now, and thinking of longterm mutual interests vs. West, but in between, maybe get hot to handle for a while, and some factions in Chinese Gov. not so happy about it already: so say various online savants.

some American envoys snuck over to Venezuela to see about getting some oil

However, in response to the question about why Mearsheimer-style realism isn't that popular right now, I guess it's pretty obvious. When you have people fighting and dying for an ideal of freedom right in front of your eyes, its very distasteful to say they should just accept their station as a neighbor of the Russian bear and not dream too big.

― o. nate, Monday, 7 March 2022 19:38 (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

havent read mearsheimer not sure that anything is as such mearsheimer style and im not sure that theres any part of any of this that id argue with on the merits of it being in good taste but the bare facts remain as they stand and horny cheerleading for continued slaughter divorced from the obvious reality holds no inherent morality from where i sit, none of which speaks to my feelings about the ukranian defence of their own occupied country against a colonial power thks

love russian bears

An interesting perspective from inside Ukraine:

https://www.nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/do-you-need-this-war/

This is an ok thread about Mearsheimer that I think answers some of what's been posted.

I think I'm going to - perhaps inadvisably - do a thread on this thread on Mearsheimer's theoretical framework, being clear that this is about Mearsheimer as a political theorist not about the horrific invasion of Ukraine. https://t.co/qlWFWRtROj

— Lafargue (@Lafargue) March 2, 2022

horny cheerleading for continued slaughter divorced from the obvious reality holds no inherent morality from where i sit, none of which speaks to my feelings about the ukranian defence of their own occupied country against a colonial power

Tbh, I haven't seen much cheerleading for slaughter per se. I do see a lot of admiration for plucky Ukrainian defenders while also feeling grimly resigned to the horrible situation they're facing. Not sure how that differs from your own unspoken feelings.

From the N+1:

In that sense, we’re all Ukrainians. We’re used to freedom. You can call Zelensky a zeleno-shmarkay—a green booger. That’s fine. That’s normal. Try calling Putin something.

Many of us who don't know a huge amount about Mearsheimer nonetheless will have first encountered him when with Stephen Walt he wrote on 'The Israel Lobby' in the LRB, which drew massive ire from people who said that this concept was racist.

ILX poster 'The Dirty Vicar' explained to me at the time that these writers were not liberal progressives but 'realists' and this made it interesting that they took this stance. (I realise that this is all well known now.)

Personally I was, at the time, convinced by the article, but I suppose I was young and naive.

Meanwhile, seems notable

Russian General-major Vitaly Gerasimov, deputy commander of Russian 41st army, was liquidated near Kharkiv, Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate said. This is Russia’s second general KIA within the last 11 days. https://t.co/rWpuAHihdg

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) March 7, 2022

Another update on the 40-mile column of Russian doom that was descending on Kyiv a week ago. It hasnt moved. In that space of time according to google maps I could have driven to Kyiv and back from Scotland. https://t.co/mzlXgd8Ynn

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 7, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/russia-swaps-signal-80-chance-of-default-on-ruble-payout-decree

The cost of insuring Russia’s government debt rose to a record high after President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing it to repay foreign creditors in rubles, raising concerns about the prospects of a default across the country’s $33 billion of dollar bonds.

Credit-default swaps insuring $10 million of the country’s notes for five years were quoted at about $5.8 million upfront and $100,000 annually on Monday, signaling around 80% likelihood of default, according to ICE Data Services. ICE is the main clearing house for European CDS. The upfront cost that protection sellers demanded on Monday rose from around $4 million last week.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM9mRnbUUAgqXhd?format=jpg&name=large

'liquidated' is so fucked up

Wow---wonder how they'll pay mercenaries, if any sign up---Pentagon press secretary today confirmed (to CNN's Jake Tapper) the WSJ report that the Russians are indeed approaching Syrian independent contractors .

What happens if they default?

doesn't china have an interest in propping up russia as a counterweight to american power? they might get bailed out by china. n.b. i am not an international power broker and have only a loose grasp of how this all works.

china is the senior partner.

russia is the junior partner.

(caveat, caveat, hedging, ass-saving)

i am an international power broker