ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Yeah the hand going through the mic is pretty obvious

more re: Logistics.

Since the end of the Cold War, the Russians have undertaken nothing at all close to their deployment to attack Ukraine, which would be a challenge to any force. But is probably doubly for them as their logistical development also seems not to have progressed much.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 5, 2022

imo, the Putin video looks strange but the biggest thing that makes me suspect it's fake is just that he appears to be close to other humans, something that is clearly not happening much/if at all these days.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w

Uhm it's not green screen anyway

This now-viral clip of Putin's hand transposing the microphone supposedly as a keying artifact is not present in the full-quality version (right) and I suspect may itself have been faked pic.twitter.com/ywBVsRj1gy

— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw) March 5, 2022

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t7cbkj/another_interview_with_captured_russians_if_this/

African-American Phoenix Mercury basketball player Brittney Griner, seven-time WNBA All-Star, winner of two Olympic gold medals, detained at Moscow airport "in February"? Why just now popping up in the news?
From BBC:
Phoenix say they are "aware of and are closely monitoring the situation".

A statement from the WNBA club was posted on Twitter after the Russia Federal Customs Service said that an American basketball player was taken into custody after officials found vape cartridges that contained hashish oil in carry-on luggage at Sheremetyevo Airport.
Russian news agency TASS, citing a law enforcement source, has since identified the player as 31-year-old Griner, who has played in the country during the WNBA offseason since 2015.

"We remain in constant contact with her family, her representation, the WNBA and NBA," the club said.
]She could face a sentence of up to 10 years in a Russian prison if convicted.

Bargaining chip?

They could start taking hostages any time now, for a bit more leverage.

time for some game theory

Putin is diabolical. He knows Biden’s Democratic party base is Black women. He knows we are gonna be up in arms about Russia detaining Britney Griner, that we will demand the U.S. get her back here. Even as we are unified against his imperialist invasion of Ukraine.

— Brittney Cooper (@ProfessorCrunk) March 6, 2022

Another ok, short thread on where we are at and might be heading.

I think the question is whether they can take Kyiv before there is a domestic backlash to casualties and economic disruptions. Putin clearly wants to take Kyiv before conducting serious negotiations, but it isn't clear Russia can do so fast enough, especially if Kharkiv holds out https://t.co/FIQQ9GVL4s

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 5, 2022

How central Asia could be affected.

Surreal to see Russians fleeing to Central Asia, frantically trying to figure local migration and registration rules in Telegram group chats, while so many Central Asian migrants are stuck in Russia, not knowing what to expect

— Yan Matusevich (@ymatusik) March 6, 2022

Best blog analysis I've read on the conflict:

https://samf.substack.com/p/space-and-time?s=r

Good conclusion that highlights the particular ambiguities of a war that Russia can't lose but is not exactly winning:

We are left contemplating the psychology of the man who launched this catastrophic adventure and must now decide whether to call it off with whatever face-saving claims he can muster. We wonder whether when he claims his war plan is on schedule and is meeting its goals is a continuation of his past delusions, because the sycophants around him don’t know how to tell him the truth, or because he does not know how to admit to the Russian people how badly he has let them down, especially after he has gone to extreme lengths to hide the truth from them.

he will have encircled and occupied whatever cities and infrastructure he wishes that remain standing as and when he decides to stop.

im not sure this western commentary timeline-as-failure narrative in any way applies to his thinking here.

Just thought I'd drop this here. No reason.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCRxa5WUAA2OMH?format=jpg&name=medium

what is that from?

it's this: https://newrepublic.com/article/165603/carlson-russia-ukraine-imperialism-nato

Trump mused to donors that we should take our F-22 planes, "put the Chinese flag on them and bomb the shit out" out of Russia. "And then we say, China did it, we didn't do, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch."

— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) March 6, 2022

I get that this is exactly the sort of dumb idea he always has but it’s still fucking amazing that the guy was President for 4 years and still has thoughts like this

so basically he watched Mickey Blue Eyes last night, is what that tells me

i thought this was an interesting piece on war options

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/03/how-does-this-end-pub-86570

Amid this escalation, experts can spin out an infinite number of branching scenarios on how this might end. But scores of war games conducted for the U.S. and allied governments and my own experience as the U.S. national intelligence officer for Europe suggest that if we boil it down, there are really only two paths toward ending the war: one, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine that will be extremely hard for the United States and many European allies to swallow.

There are possible other paths toward further escalation, but they all eventually lead toward the nuclear threshold. Scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine make it clear that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes that his regime is threatened. It is hard to know exactly what turn of events would scare him enough to cross the nuclear threshold. Certainly a large NATO army entering Russian territory would be enough. But what if events in Ukraine loosened his grip on power at home? Indeed, achieving regime change in Russia indirectly by making Putin lose in Ukraine seems to be the logic behind some of those who are pushing for escalation today.

Moving across the nuclear threshold wouldn’t necessarily mean an immediate, full-force nuclear exchange—in other words, global thermonuclear war. But it would be an extremely dangerous, watershed event in world history.

The nuclear option that has been most frequently discussed in the past few days involves Russia using a small nuclear weapon (a “non-strategic nuclear weapon”) against a specific military target in Ukraine. Such a strike might have a military purpose, such as destroying an airfield or other military target, but it would mainly be aimed at demonstrating the will to use nuclear weapons, or “escalating to de-escalate,” and scaring the West into backing down.

Some analysts have questioned Russia’s ability to actually carry out such an operation, given its lack of practice. Unfortunately, this isn’t the only or even the most likely option available to the Kremlin. Based on war games I ran in the wake of Putin’s 2014 invasion, a more likely option would be a sudden nuclear test or a high-altitude nuclear detonation that damages the electrical grid over a major Ukrainian or even NATO city. Think of an explosion that makes the lights go out over Oslo.

Those war games indicated that the best U.S. response to this kind of attack would be first to demonstrate U.S. resolve with a response in kind, aimed at a target of similar value, followed by restraint and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. In most games, Russia still responds with a second nuclear attack, but in the games that go “well,” the United States and Russia manage to de-escalate after that, although only in circumstances where both sides have clear political off-ramps and lines of communication between Moscow and Washington have remained open. In all the other games, the world is basically destroyed.

Even in the better case where both sides take their fingers off the triggers, the nuclear taboo has been broken, and we are in an entirely new era: two nuclear superpowers have used their nuclear weapons in a war. The proliferation consequences alone would be far-reaching, as other countries accelerate their nuclear weapons programs. The very fact that the nuclear taboo had been broken increases the odds that the nuclear threshold is crossed again in future conflicts, not just between Russia and America, but also with China, between India and Pakistan, in the Middle East, or elsewhere. Even this outcome in which the world is “saved,” the United States is far worse off than it was before the war in Ukraine broke out last month.

What is the alternative? Once again, infinite scenarios and branches are possible, but there is a single basic one that helps to simplify thinking. It begins with an effort to avoid further escalation today. So far, the Biden administration has wisely restrained direct U.S. military involvement in the conflict, but holding off against the rising chorus of voices pushing for escalation may be hard in the coming days if Russian forces brutally devastate Ukraine’s cities. But the most difficult challenge lies a little further down the road with the scenario described above: how to respond if Russia imposes a puppet regime in Ukraine. This would put the United States in the near-impossible position of having to choose between further escalation and compromising on the very principles that drove it toward the war in the first place—the right of a nation like Ukraine to be free and independent of subjugation to foreign rule.

In this scenario, the Biden administration would have to show extraordinary leadership and strength to hold together its coalition and steer it toward restraint. It would face extremely high levels of pressure from European capitals, Ukrainian lobbies, and others to reject the puppet government and fight on, perhaps by recognizing a Ukrainian government-in-exile. The administration is already facing calls from hawkish corners of Washington to preempt any negotiated settlement to this war. Emotions are likely to have a much greater effect on the free democracies fighting for Ukraine than on the autocrat sitting in the Kremlin, but they will affect both sides. As they escalate, the prospects of negotiation diminish further.

i hope i'm wrong, but i'm now convinced russia will use either a small nuclear weapon (the so-called "non-strategic nuclear weapon") against ukrainian military or a "nuclear test," a high-altitude nuclear detonation, that takes out a ukrainian power grid

in either scenario, the nuclear threshold has been crossed and, like this piece says, we will have entered an entirely new era, which will already be pretty dangerous for world politics

Once an EMP attack takes out a power grid, is it permanently destroyed? Do you have to literally rebuild the entire thing?

probably unplug the whole thing, wait 30 seconds, then reboot

i'm not an electrical engineer, but i would think there would be a lot of rebuilding involved, but it would not take out the entire country's power grid. it's more localized, from my understanding. but it also depends how the ukraine power grids were built

how much collateral damage and lives the EMP takes with it are other factors. both would definitely be substantial. i haven't read too much about this but my understanding is that russia has advanced fighter and fighter bombs, but very few of them and their air force doesn't have a lot of experience mounting complex air operations

it would seem like reconning ukrainian air space is possible, though, since apparently ukraine lacks scope and situational awareness in air space

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

Trump mused to donors that we should take our F-22 planes, "put the Chinese flag on them and bomb the shit out" out of Russia. "And then we say, China did it, we didn't do, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch."

He's such a moron that nothing originates in his noggin. Pretty sure I saw a clip of Hannity suggesting as much a few days ago.

The scale of the some of the Russian convoys that are being attacked and destroyed by the Ukrainians has to be seen to be believed.🇺🇦

I have no idea how many casualties the Russians took in this engagement, but they would've been extremely heavy.pic.twitter.com/5eKSBitsxc

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) March 5, 2022

So Kharkiv is still free? I thought Russia had “control” of it a few days ago?!

rename thread again pls "the russian war vs the US (in ukraine)"

Another sort of nuclear threshold has already been crossed, in firing on the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. *Seems* like they targeted the perimeter, just enough to set the precedent, and leave us wondering how much further they might go. As engineers and others have pointed out, if they really wanted to shut down the grid, there are much handier ways. Also has been pointed out that shutting down the grid would disrupt their own operations in Ukraine, maybe especially communications. But meanwhile, firing on the plant sends a message.

Oh and I'd been assuming that, even w puppets in place, there may be an insurgency armed by US and maybe NATO, as in Soviet-era Afghanistan and later there (of course the former incl. incl. help from Al-Q), though of course there are so many scenarios being replayed in Ukrainesplaining

But firing on the plant, that's a new wrinkle, I think---?

How can we expect the Tory party to wean Britain off Russian wealth and power, when they got us hooked in the first place?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/06/oligarch-money-is-embedded-in-london-beware-the-big-talk-of-a-crackdown?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1646582176

The U.S. remains in discussions with Poland to potentially backfill their fleet of fighter planes if Warsaw decides to transfer its used MiG-29s to Ukraine, four U.S. officials tell POLITICO.https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/05/white-house-deal-fighter-jets-ukraine-00014424

This makes pretty good sense. Seems like MiG-29s wouldn't have a bright future in a NATO force anyway, unless all the necessary parts for them can be obtained outside of Russian-controlled sources.

I wouldn't mind if this thread could take a breather on manifesting nuclear armageddon

otm

Shits definitely been keeping me up at night but the idea that Putin is just looking for an excuse to nuke the West is insane. Much less that he would be able to get the four people he needs to carry out the strike knowing it would result in Russia being turned to dust within minutes. And yet I’m still kinda terrified given how sloppy both Russia and the US have been handling things. But if Putins plan was to threaten nukes until he gets what he wants, why try this invasion in the first place?

99.9% chance nuclear war doesn't happen because of this and 100% chance that nobody here can do anything about it anyway so I don't know why ppl worry themselves sick over it

I think we’re taking a break from such thoughts here

Realistically I think it’s that the events of the last 5 years has made a lot of us feel we’re living in the end times so I get why everyone is so nervous

Yeah---though nowadays, nuke-wise, I'm mainly trying to keep up with what's happening at that plant:
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed “grave concern” at the situation at the six-reactor plant, the largest in Europe. The agency was told by the Ukrainian nuclear regulator that “any action of plant management – including measures related to the technical operation of the six reactor units – requires prior approval by the Russian commander”.

The IAEA director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said on Sunday that the Russian military command over the nuclear plant “contravenes one of the seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security” ...The IAEA also expressed concern that the Russian occupying force had reportedly shut down mobile phone networks and the internet connection “so that reliable information from the site cannot be obtained through the normal channels of communication”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-staff-under-russian-orders

I've not noticed much nervousness... outside of this thread.

i'm not an electrical engineer, but i would think there would be a lot of rebuilding involved, but it would not take out the entire country's power grid. it's more localized, from my understanding. but it also depends how the ukraine power grids were built

how much collateral damage and lives the EMP takes with it are other factors. both would definitely be substantial. i haven't read too much about this but my understanding is that russia has advanced fighter and fighter bombs, but very few of them and their air force doesn't have a lot of experience mounting complex air operations

it would seem like reconning ukrainian air space is possible, though, since apparently ukraine lacks scope and situational awareness in air space

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

― Punster McPunisher, Sunday, 6 March 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Fixed this for you.

100% chance that nobody here can do anything about it anyway so I don't know why ppl worry themselves sick over it

I believe lack of agency is precisely why people worry themselves sick over things.

it's this: https://newrepublic.com/article/165603/carlson-russia-ukraine-imperialism-nato

― StanM, Sunday, 6 March 2022 bookmarkflaglink

The Mearsheimer interview is pointing to US defence establishment thinking. To the US and China Ukraine is a piece in a game.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-soldiers-ukraine-cannon-fodder-governor/31739187.html

Looks like Z is the new swastika then:

Let's discuss what's happening in Russia. To put it simply, it's going full fascist. Authorities launched a propaganda campaign to gain popular support for their invasion of Ukraine and they're getting lots of it. You can see "Z" on these guys' clothes. What does it mean? 🧵 pic.twitter.com/F2zjcpJCDZ

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 6, 2022

shit

.

So Kharkiv is still free? I thought Russia had “control” of it a few days ago?!

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, March 6, 2022 11:43 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

You might be thinking of Kherson?

Five of the best books about Russia and Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/mar/06/five-of-the-best-books-about-russia-and-ukraine