ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

aaand thank you both for making me regret that post

totally not my intention - I have also spent the last two days trying to devise a way to get a one-dose update every day without giving money to the local newspaper that publishes multiple op-eds against democracy in the middle of elections.

tweet style updates of wartime will kill ye, folks

here, there or anywhere else

Not that I don't read the up to the minute stuff, but Heather Cox Richardson's nightly recap has been a gift.

This fuckin guy

Putin on Friday called for “normalization” of relations with other states, saying that Moscow had “absolutely no ill intentions with regard to our neighbors.”

“I think that everyone should think about normalizing relations and cooperating normally,” he said in comments via video link from a ceremony raising the Russian flag on a Kaliningrad ferry.

Agreed on HCR.

The other extraordinary transformation taking place in Polish social life is connected to the extraordinary numbers of people being taken into private homes. Spoke to someone today who told me she “barely knew a family who hasn’t taken someone in.”

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) March 3, 2022

Management at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar is now working at gunpoint, the company that runs the station said.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/h_1f73598a8edc48dcd10cea81c3c37be5

xpost

I live in Poland and know multiple people who've taken in individuals or families.

An ok report as well

Sex workers are consistently the most organized people in a crisis because the criminalization of their existence means they're always in crisis https://t.co/qy37u2Q9Mk

— Gillian Branstetter (@GBBranstetter) March 3, 2022

i know this is prosaic & cliched but i would give anything to go back to reading daily updates in a newspaper from a war correspondent

this minute to minute stuff where everything is catastrophic til it’s not is a goddamn nightmare

― terminators of endearment (VegemiteGrrl), Thursday, March 3, 2022 10:52 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

My therapist agrees with you, says humans are built to receive the minute by minute deluge of bad news, I'm trying to stay off Twitter as much as possible and I don't watch the news at all, seems to be helping

Don't know if this interview has been posted but it's still very much relevant. It's with a Pol prof who very much conceives international relations as a site of struggle between the big powers (he can't conceive of imperialism as part of his framework). It's calculating, strategic matter with all the emotions taken out. If you work out the implications it's something that is happening already in someway, i.e. some form of sanctions though the elites aren't touched, with no military intervention. Given yesterday's events we could be on the path of selling out Ukraine to de-escalation. And if Russia can help out against the main enemy (China) then all the better.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine/amp

I take it this is Dan’s recommendation: https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com

New Yorker interviewer pushes back, asks right questions, interviewee stands ground while admitting he doesn't know wtf happening pretty much, concedes in order to continue, realpolitik of the expert

good god @ that Chotiner interview

not sure what the point of "calculating, strategic" is when your views are already proven wrong in real time.

One interesting thing about how the sanctions are unfolding is that the de facto sanctions are becoming even worse than the official sanctions, because so many foreign companies are voluntarily suspending business with Russia even if not required to do so. The reasons for this are not clear, but possibly could be uncertainty about future sanctions as well as some herding effect. Once a critical mass of companies has pulled out, it becomes harder to maintain any business in Russia that has complex supplier relationships.

Given yesterday's events we could be on the path of selling out Ukraine to de-escalation. And if Russia can help out against the main enemy (China) then all the better

Wondering what you're referring to with "yesterday's events" here. Everything throughout and well prior to the invasion has pointed to exactly the opposite of the US reaching some kind of rapprochement with Russia.

BBC’s wording is odd - “…meet after Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine”

An attack on a nuclear plant is an event, to me.

I don't see anything but an increase in tensions. Arms are being sent by countries to Ukraine, the sanctions are tough and have hit much of the population hard. Russians are trying to leave.

No, I mean describing it as a nuclear attack.

de facto sanctions

One interesting thread I read was about the intricacies of the airline industries and the indirect repercussions of sanctions on Russian air travel:

We need to stop for moment and take stock of the abject evisceration of the Russian commercial aircraft fleet and airline market that is currently taking place.

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) March 2, 2022

(Don't think I posted that already, but if I did, sorry!)

An attack on a nuclear plant is an event, to me.

I don't see anything but an increase in tensions. Arms are being sent by countries to Ukraine, the sanctions are tough and have hit much of the population hard. Russians are trying to leave.

― xyzzzz__, Friday, March 4, 2022 12:19 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'm not following you at all. Russia has invaded Ukraine and is trying to conquer the country, obviously "tensions" are "increased." But you said " we could be on the path of selling out Ukraine to de-escalation. And if Russia can help out against the main enemy (China) then all the better." How are we "selling out Ukraine to de-escalation"? How is any kind of de-escalation happening at all? And what evidence is there that we are looking to Russia to help us out against China? Or am I misunderstanding?

Another pessimistic thread on where this is going for Russia, which also notes specifically the aviation issue:

One thing we can be sure of.

Putin has succeeded in bringing back USSR that he so longed for.

Do Russians themselves realize what to expect now?

Few, maybe.

But most can't even comprehend the scale of economic destruction that's about to unfold in the motherland.

👇🧵 pic.twitter.com/laY4jswz6L

— Sergei Perfiliev 🇺🇦 (@perfiliev) March 4, 2022

who is "we"

You can’t conduct business if you can’t guarantee you are going to get paid. It’s hard enough to get payments from Russian companies at the best of times due to the immense amount of paperwork - with additional bureaucracy on both sides, it’s going to be virtually impossible. I’m not sure it’s specifically a moral choice.

In local (to me) news, this was interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-60619112

Maybe it's pedantic, but I find it grating when people say "bring back the USSR" because that's clearly not what he's trying to do -- bring back an imperial greater Russia yes, but not one that looks like the USSR.

I think maybe people mean the USSR in principle? That is, central power in Moscow and bordering satellite states, an empire in essence if not an exact recreation of the USSR. In that above thread specifically, I assume he means "bring back the USSR" as a pejorative. Food lines, empty shelves, worse standard of living, that sort of thing.

How is any kind of de-escalation happening at all? And what evidence is there that we are looking to Russia to help us out against China? Or am I misunderstanding?

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Friday, 4 March 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Sorry that was clumsy. I meant that one way out of this is effectively to sell out Ukraine to de-escalate, which yes it's not happening at all rn.

The China bit is plucked out from that interview.

Man Alive: Accurate. He has specifically blamed Lenin for the situation, as I understand it. I don't think your complaint is pedantic.

Mearsheimer just seems flat out, demonstrably wrong here, don't really know what else to say. Events are just not bearing out his theories.

Ok, Mearsheimer is agreeing with you re: Putin not really interested in bringing back the USSR. So flat out wrong is demonstrably, not true.

No, you are misreading both him and my comment.

He says

It’s hard to say whether he’s going to go after the rest of Ukraine because—I don’t mean to nitpick here but—that implies that he wants to conquer all of Ukraine, and then he will turn to the Baltic states, and his aim is to create a greater Russia or the reincarnation of the Soviet Union. I don’t see evidence at this point that that is true.

His aim absolutely is to create a greater Russia. Putin and Russian govt mouthpieces have openly stated this.

I don't think Putin misses the Communist aspects of USSR. What he misses is probably more the strong, centralized, authoritarian government, the international sphere of influence, fear and respect on the world stage, the de facto empire (although officially it was a federation of independent nations). The Mearsheimer interview alludes to this:

Chotiner: It seems to me that if he wants to bring back anything, it’s the Russian Empire that predates the Soviet Union. He seems very critical of the Soviet Union, correct?

Mearsheimer: Well, I don’t know if he’s critical.

Chotiner: He said it in his big essay that he wrote last year, and he said in a recent speech that he essentially blames Soviet policies for allowing a degree of autonomy for Soviet Republics, such as Ukraine.

Mearsheimer: But he also said, as I read to you before, "Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart." That’s somewhat at odds with what you just said. I mean, he’s in effect saying that he misses the Soviet Union, right? That’s what he’s saying.

Mearsheimer may yet seem prescient, if this eventually reaches some kind of settlement with Ukraine returning to a more pro-Russian orbit, although I find it unlikely.

Putin just flat out told Macron that he intends to conquer all of Ukraine, so it's kind of hard to argue with that. Sure, it could be a bluff, but his original goal was regime change so it would hardly be surprising if he's turning to pure brute force conquest now that his initial plan got stalled.

I don't think Putin misses the Communist aspects of USSR. What he misses is probably more the strong, centralized, authoritarian government, the international sphere of influence, fear and respect on the world stage, the de facto empire (although officially it was a federation of independent nations

Yes. That's why I find debating whether he wants another USSR or a bigger Russia is -- at the moment -- a parlor game.

a friend of mine is supporting the locals there by "staying" in an Ukrainian Airbnb (like paying but not actually being there if i need to spell it out) and i'm too non-confrontational (at least irl) to tell her how.... misguided that seems

who knows maybe that is the best way to support the locals there

The rest of that ‘no heart’ quote is a riff on the Churchill ‘no brain’ line IIRC.

Westerners are seemingly incapable of considering conflict with Russia or a Russian leader outside the internalized cold warrior/red scare mindset.

I wouldn't say all Westerners. There is definitely a strain of Western commentary on foreign affairs that is basically always trying to revive a Manichean Us vs Them way of dividing the world, a la Cold War days. For a while it was going to be the Liberal Tolerant Nations vs the Fundamentalist Islamists. Then that kind of ran out of steam, so it became the Democracies vs the Autocracies. I would say Mearsheimer's analysis is more sophisticated than that.

Acceptable "de-escalating" now seems to mean, "Just give it all up now and maybe we won't kill you too much. Otherwise, we will."

Re: Putin's aims, I think the extent of information warfare and the way it's being implemented is unlike anything we've seen before, so why Putin says something and what he means by it is sometimes difficult (if not impossible) to fathom. His threats of conquering all of Ukraine within hours of suggesting a return to normalcy - which part is the bluff?

a friend of mine is supporting the locals there by "staying" in an Ukrainian Airbnb (like paying but not actually being there if i need to spell it out) and i'm too non-confrontational (at least irl) to tell her how.... misguided that seems

It's something that a lot of people are doing, and it seems like a pretty good idea to me — money goes directly to an actual Ukrainian person, and many of the hosts who are receiving such donations are turning around and letting displaced families use the room/apartment they'd otherwise be renting.

lol:

S&P downgrades Russia's credit rating to CCCP.

— Gary Shteyngart (@Shteyngart) March 4, 2022

Re: Putin's aims, I think the extent of information warfare and the way it's being implemented is unlike anything we've seen before, so why Putin says something and what he means by it is sometimes difficult (if not impossible) to fathom. His threats of conquering all of Ukraine within hours of suggesting a return to normalcy - which part is the bluff?

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, March 4, 2022 1:11 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

Don't overthink it. He believes Ukraine is part of Greater Russia. He wants to control it by puppet govt. He thought he could do this with a smaller military operation, and that failed, so now he is aiming larger. That's unquestionably his goal, the only question is whether he would temporarily accept some kind of half-measure like a carved up, neutered Ukraine.

I think the minimum he would probably accept would be to have an autonomous (de facto Russia-controlled) Donbas region which officially remains in Ukraine and retains a veto over any Ukraine foreign policy or military decisions, which would in effect make sure Ukraine stays demilitarized and neutral.

And that's a lot easier to achieve. But "Ukraine is part of Greater Russia," that's tougher, because the only way to maintain that is through force, which implicitly threatens the rest of the region and leaves him a pariah. Still not entirely sure how the world lives with even the "easy" win of getting partial control, anyway, not after all the threats and military action.

https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/kremlin-staff-didnt-expect-putin-to-invade-ukraine-and-were-shocked-by-the-severity-of-western-sanctions-report-says/articleshow/89996930.cms

The Kremlin is particularly concerned by its ousting from SWIFT, the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, including by the US, and the exit of a string of Western companies from Russia, Agency reported.

"Everything is fucked," a source close to Putin's administration told the outlet.