ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

the idea that the russians are not going to win is a total dream

Yeah there's never been any question that they can roll over the country eventually. But there are lots of different kinds of "winning." Seems clear they're not winning the way they initially hoped, which would have been quick and exacted less toll on either the Russian army or Ukrainian people. The cost in global and domestic pushback is probably already higher than Putin wanted. And the long-term consequences are probably worse too. If the goal was to emerge with Russia looking stronger, that may already be unachievable.

yeah I guess I'm just coming around to what people mean when they mention Grozny. leave no stone atop another etc. not just some tanks rolling in. grim.

Small but I believe not symbolically insignificant point: should we mod request to get the second "the" removed from thread title?

I was thinking the same thing over the past couple of days. Changed.

Nice.

It will still show up as the old way in bookmarked "new answers" alerts, nothing to be done about that.

Thanks, WmC.

I don't believe for a second that Putin will fall or that the country will "turn on him" or "overthrow him." As such, I am wondering: at what point do sanctions materially weaken Russia's military capabilities? Is that a matter of months? Years?

This is where we’re at: a Russian investment expert pulls out a bottle on live television to toast the end of the country’s capital markets and says he’s going back to working as a dress-up Santa Claus https://t.co/9wAFSSd1QQ

— Joshua Yaffa (@yaffaesque) March 3, 2022

Full translation: pic.twitter.com/n5C1rnwrkq

— Dmitri (@mdmitri91) March 3, 2022

lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM3Ar-RXIAQF9Fk?format=jpg&name=large

to tipsy- yep, but the question should be, for any good even understanding it will do, what does "winning" look like here to Putin

the more i read (not much tbh) on rounding up schoolteachers for fodder the more i wonder to what extent soldiers on the frontline were all a show here

on that point, I was reading about Grozny and apparently Russia there also started their invasion with small detachments of less capable soldiers to sniff out enemy positions. So it's possible that's what happened here too. And I think it's also possible that, in spite of that, Russians are genuinely having difficulties and getting bogged down with logistics, mud, underestimation of Ukrainian resistance, etc.

I imagine the challenge of being an invading superpower is the ability to pretty much achieve any goal you want, yet limitations (both internal and external) of how to go about it. So yeah, a "win" is not in question, it's what kind of win, how much of a win, how soon a win, at what cost, etc.

yeah they may be able to occupy the big cities for a while but like...then what? are they really gonna be able to install a puppet government? they are hemorrhaging money, equipment, and men. how long are they gonna be able to last? the Ukrainians don't look like they're gonna just capitulate.

I don't see why Russia wouldn't be able to install a puppet govt tbh. If Kyiv falls, it falls. At some point whether you're "going to capitulate" isn't really a choice anymore, the war is lost.

I don't think Russia is really "hemorrhaging equipment and men" at this point either. Even if they have lost 5000 troops, which is possible, they have an army of 900,000. If this keeps up for another two weeks and they have lost 10,000 or 15,000, that's a bloody nose for Russia, but I hardly see it preventing their immediate aims in Ukraine. It would probably be unacceptable losses in a modern democracy for this kind of war, but we aren't dealing with a modern democracy where public outcry is going to change the outcome of the war. At least not for a very long time. The US lost 17,000 soldiers in Vietnam in 1968 and protest was, for the most part, widely allowed. The economic sanctions eventually change the picture but there's a question of how long Russia is willing to hold out for what it sees as longer term strategic gains.

Installing a new president, let alone one that was already kicked out, would achieve ... what? No one would recognize him as the president, and he would be treated every bit the pariah as Putin.

Another problem with Russia's goals in Ukraine is that Ukraine's infrastructure and industry is being destroyed. Where will the reconstruction funds come from? Russia's economy is in crisis, and, an insurgency will be even more likely if Ukrainians can't find jobs. https://t.co/BucYlJURht

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 3, 2022

Installing a new president, let alone one that was already kicked out, would achieve ... what? No one would recognize him as the president, and he would be treated every bit the pariah as Putin.

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, March 3, 2022 10:06 AM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean, ask Chechnya?

Invading to ‘undo the coup’ seems like something that might have had a chance of limited success in 2014 but looks completely ridiculous after eight years of hardening public opinion.

Chechnya has 1m people, was always divided in terms of public opinion and has cost Russia a vast amount of money to keep onside. Ukraine has 44m with a clear majority opposed to occupation. Russia can’t do what it did with Crimea and flood it with cash. Some kind of attempt at partition, as in Moldova, might be more realistic.

just out of curiosity does culture or ethnicity have any bearing upon the chechnya question? (hope not)

I think there are a few main differences with Chechnya in terms of how the West has responded - it’s unambiguously recognised part of Russia, it’s a Muslim-majority region and it was seen very much as an Islamist uprising that would have wider consequences for other regions if successful.

Chechnya was largely seen as a civil conflict within Russia rather than an invasion of a sovereign nation. To the west it was just part of the messiness of the end of the USSR--ethnic hatreds long repressed, etc.

lol

If you’re wondering why McAdams is the top trend in India — watch this and stay with the shouting to get to the good part at 1.52 mins 😏pic.twitter.com/YOv8Pr1mOY

— Shilpa  (@shilpakannan) March 3, 2022

never mind

But for whatever reason do Ukrainians feel separate enough from Russians to stand up (and I am guessing the answer is yes) and how will this effect their view of a puppet government over time and what does this mean for nation states and empires and the lines along which borders are drawn?

"But sir, Mr. McAdams was the name of his dog!"

affect (sorry copy fiends)

Sadly, it has gone too far.

Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russian foreign intelligence: "The masks are off. The West isn't simply trying to close off Russia behind a new iron curtain. This is about an attempt to ruin our government - to 'cancel' it, as they now say in "tolerant" liberal-fascist circles."

— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) March 3, 2022

Отразите свое проснувшееся небо

Russia is totally going rebuild its economy by starting a Substack

Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò did a series for the nation literally a month or two ago where he asked the question "who runs the world?" besides being absolutely horrifying and a major bummer, the russian invasion of ukraine and the sanction response is also a real-life test-run of this question imo.

https://www.thenation.com/authors/olufemi-o-taiwo/

also, this is an actually good response from zizek

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-unequal-treatment-of-refugees-exposed-by-ukraine-by-slavoj-zizek-2022-03

China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say

https://archive.ph/LOMqw

of course chinese officials are denying everything, but:

China and Russia have been strengthening their economic, diplomatic and military ties for years. Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin met 37 times as national leaders before their discussions in Beijing ahead of the Olympics. The ambitious joint statement that the two nations issued during that meeting alarmed American and European officials, especially because it was the first time China had explicitly sided with Russia on issues concerning NATO and European security. European leaders have denounced China and Russia in recent weeks, including in speeches at the Munich Security Conference.
For months, some American officials tried to recruit China in efforts to avert war in Ukraine.
Days after President Biden spoke to Mr. Xi in a video summit on Nov. 15, senior American officials decided to present intelligence on the Russian troop buildup around Ukraine to senior Chinese officials to try to get them to persuade Mr. Putin to stand down. The Americans spoke to Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador in Washington, and to Wang Yi, the foreign minister, among others. In a half-dozen meetings, including one in Washington between U.S. officials and the Chinese ambassador just hours before the Russian invasion, Chinese officials expressed skepticism that Mr. Putin would invade Ukraine, American officials said.
After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials received intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, American officials said.
U.S. intelligence findings and assessments of Russian plans for an invasion of Ukraine have generally been accurate. The Americans began a campaign last fall to share intelligence with mainly ally and partner nations and to present declassified material to the public to build pressure on Russia to halt any planned invasion. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, flew to Moscow on Nov. 2 to confront the Russians with the information, and on Nov. 17, American intelligence officials shared their findings with NATO.

Since the war began, Chinese officials have consistently aligned with Russia. They have expressed support for Russia’s concerns about NATO and said Russian and Ukrainian officials should have negotiations. A Chinese government readout of a telephone conversation last Friday between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin reiterated those points. Spokespeople for the Chinese Foreign Ministry have refused to call Russia’s actions an “invasion” and blamed the United States for inflaming tensions around Ukraine.

so, basically the US goes to china and russia to try to ask why russia seems to be getting ready for war. china tells the americans why they're starting to start a war, lol, because they don't know anything of that sort. russia attacks after the olympics. china wants negotiations between russia and ukraine but sides with russia's "listen, just give me your country and we'll call it even." but everybody gtfo:

China is trying to evacuate thousands of its citizens, including diplomats, from Ukraine. About 6,000 citizens were in Ukraine before those efforts began. At least one Chinese citizen was injured by gunfire on Tuesday while trying to leave Ukraine, Mr. Wang said. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, spoke with the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, on Tuesday about the Chinese citizens in the country, according to an official Chinese readout of the conversation.

and more conniving:

American and European officials are watching China closely to see whether it will help Russia evade sanctions. Before the invasion, Beijing and Moscow announced a 30-year contract for China to buy gas through a new pipeline. China has also lifted restrictions on the import of Russian wheat. But U.S. officials expect the large Chinese state-owned banks to avoid openly violating the sanctions on Russia for fear of jeopardizing their own global commercial activities.

I'm actually kind of shocked by how coherent and otm that Zizek piece was.

"That Russian 40km army convoy has stalled apparently because it has run out of fuel."

A Robert Peston Tweet. Hope it is true, and gives a breathing space.

I wonder who the Russia Rumsfeld is who did this awesome planning

iirc ShariVari mentioned something about the head general being fired a few days ago?

Now's the time to bomb the trucks

fuck yeah

brilliant idea, notify the generals

BREAKING: RT America is ceasing productions and laying off its staff, according to a memo I have obtained from the production company behind the Russia-backed network. https://t.co/l2wcGA85Zg

— Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) March 3, 2022

lol I did not know that Dennis Miller had a show on RT America

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Bart_Chilton.jpg/330px-Bart_Chilton.jpg

This guy will surely find another job soon (in Eternia)

bye

Q: How meaningful is it that the convoy is "stalled" or "running out of fuel?" Is there any analysis of that? Presumably they have means of refueling/resupplying? At least it's hard for me to believe otherwise. How long does this set Russia back?

I think it’s a sign of a larger problem and won’t expect much to change even after they get their hands on some jerrycans

Q: How meaningful is it that the convoy is "stalled" or "running out of fuel?" Is there any analysis of that? Presumably they have means of refueling/resupplying? At least it's hard for me to believe otherwise. How long does this set Russia back?

I don't think anybody really knows what's going on:

Saying that the convoy had “not made any appreciable progress, geographically speaking, in the last 24-36 hours”, Kirby added: “In general we believe there are a couple of reasons for that. One reason is we believe the Russians are deliberately regrouping themselves and reassessing the progress that they have not made and how to make up the lost time.

“Two, we do believe that they have experienced logistic and sustainment challenges. Challenges that we don’t believe they fully anticipated. Three, they are getting resistance from the Ukrainians. We have some indications, nothing that we can 100% verify, that the Ukrainians have indeed tried to slow down that convoy.”

Apparently they've struck a deal with some local pro-Russian separatists who need a ride and agreed to throw in some money for gas and tolls