ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Russian delegation came to the city of Konotop to negotiate a surrender, effectively said that the city would be destroyed in the fighting otherwise. pic.twitter.com/SpRtSeju2N

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2022

Literally coming to negotiate with two grenades in his hands, and the negotiation is "give up or we will destroy your city."

Useful thread

I have spent some time last night reading Russian nationalist accounts (the well versed "intellectual" ones, not normie Putin fans), and here is a quick summary of what they think:

— Yuriy Akopov (@y_akopov) March 2, 2022

Separately, quite a breakdown here

I work in the aviation sector, and I can tell you that for all intents and purposes Russian aviation has - at best - about three weeks before it’s show over.

One aspect is the fact that airspace available to Russian aircraft is very, very limited now. However, there is more:

— Jan Nedvidek (@janedvidek) March 1, 2022

If you can't tell the time, don't do the crime.

LOL OTM

Reminds me of one of those old Russian/Soviet prisoner jokes I can’t type in at the moment.

Useful thread

I have spent some time last night reading Russian nationalist accounts (the well versed "intellectual" ones, not normie Putin fans), and here is a quick summary of what they think:
— Yuriy Akopov (@y_akopov) March 2, 2022
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 March 2022 13:42 (forty-two minutes ago) link

Dark and sobering, though I don't necessarily think they are all right.

Thread author agrees with you. The question then becomes what they adjust or fall back on.

Definitely has an air of "we will win because every single thing is going to go exactly according to plan." Which is never how things go.

Looking at a bunch of the pro-Putin bloggers, Twitter accounts, etc, it’s incredibly obvious how much of an overlap there is between the language being used and the language used routinely by apologists for other outrages internationally.

This is a police action, not a war
The focus is on extremists and the leadership, not the country as a whole
Only military targets are being hit
Militants are hiding weapons in civilian infrastructure, so they’re to blame when civilians are killed
Militants are actively forcing civilians to stay in place so they’re hit

…and so on.

Destroying the national identity of the citizens of a conquered country in a few weeks--that usually works, huh?

God!!! They're only making them madder!!!

this fucking guy

There are no more “innocent” “neutral” Russians anymore. Everyone has to make a choice— support or oppose this war. The only way to end this war is if 100,000s, not thousands, protest against this senseless war. Putin can’t arrest you all!

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) March 2, 2022

That guy was ambassador to Russia?

"How can the Russian political class be this dumb?" *remembers the American political class*

Michael McFail

xp
one time* this guy Donald Trump was president of the united states

*well we'll see

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.324A9TG

but who is fact checking the fact checkers

I get confused every time I see this guy because I think it's Michael McCaul, my congressional rep.

that same gross argument was used to justify countless wars like Afghanistan/Iraq. "There are no innocent victims in war, if they didn't overthrow their corrupt government, they deserve what's coming to them" was a sentiment I ran into a lot in Florida.

Also 9/11 itself!

yep

yeah, those people in the WTC were servants of capitalism etc.

Guessing ppl making that argument are 100% onboard with everything their govts are up to? Or if not, working tirelessly every day to topple them, as they are aware that not doing so makes them complicit?

xposts

I believe this is the Death Star Janitors argument

It's the Ward Churchill 'little Eichmanns' argument

It's an absurd discussion to be having six days into a war that it's not even clear Russia's citizens know about or understand.

being that the US has a history of having humongous chunks of our population full-throated cheerleading our wars, I assume McFaul will be issuing his personal apology for the last 200+ years

Kasparov, meantime, is running out of patience.

Putin's war on Ukraine has entered its next phase, one of destruction and slaughter of civilians. It is also a part of Putin's World War, a war on the civilized world of international law, democracy, and any threat to his power, which he declared long ago. 1/13

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 2, 2022

check!

Good piece on NPR this afternoon on not only the curiously slow, almost cautious advance of Russia that counters their formidable reputation, but also on how Putin's full-force disinformation campaign (especially in Ukraine itself) seems to have failed everywhere but at home.

Ukraine’s intelligence says Putin might consider imposing martial law in Russia on March 4.
Absolute maniac has pit himself in a death trap with his own stupid lunacy.

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) March 2, 2022

might consider, hmm

sounds pretty solid

what other options does he have after that michael mcfaul tweet

I’m not sure he’s read it yet

Ukraine’s intelligence says Putin might consider imposing martial law in Russia on March 4.

He might consider many things that day. Who is to say he won't?

Don't mock the guy, i'm gonna bet English is not his first language.

If you think he is trying to say something different, then, what would that be?

Big If True transcends language barriers

Some more general info (second tweet explains his technical background for this)

This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

1/ pic.twitter.com/LmxW43v6gy

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022

Apparently people are leaving fake restaurant reviews for Russian restaurants on Tripadvisor - the reviews are bits of news about the Ukrainian situation that run counter to the propaganda being churned out by Russian media.

Armchair war punditry on Twitter is the worst. 'Looks like a thermobaric rocket explosion to me!' says a random guy at home who didn't know they existed before last Friday.

twitter or anywhere really

Small but I believe not symbolically insignificant point: should we mod request to get the second "the" removed from thread title?

https://www.city-journal.org/putins-bet

Basically argues that the Russian army is built around artillery, and that for all the talk of Russian military unpreparedness they're well equipped to win that way. Depressing to think about the implications for ordinary Ukrainians.

the idea that the russians are not going to win is a total dream

Yeah there's never been any question that they can roll over the country eventually. But there are lots of different kinds of "winning." Seems clear they're not winning the way they initially hoped, which would have been quick and exacted less toll on either the Russian army or Ukrainian people. The cost in global and domestic pushback is probably already higher than Putin wanted. And the long-term consequences are probably worse too. If the goal was to emerge with Russia looking stronger, that may already be unachievable.

yeah I guess I'm just coming around to what people mean when they mention Grozny. leave no stone atop another etc. not just some tanks rolling in. grim.

Small but I believe not symbolically insignificant point: should we mod request to get the second "the" removed from thread title?

I was thinking the same thing over the past couple of days. Changed.

Nice.

It will still show up as the old way in bookmarked "new answers" alerts, nothing to be done about that.